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[Stumpokapow]

I know its silly since the numbers are out everywhere but GAF has that weird deal with the NPD. I don't know if its cool or not but it hasn't been in the past. I won't pretend to know their official stance on these numbers. Just warning you.

Although people have been discussing it all over the thread so the cat is out of the bag anyway I suppose.

The issue is more that leaks have historically been plugged using tracer numbers (IE fudging the data presented by 10 units here or there so that when someone leaks, you know who the original leak was).

Saying "The leak said Conduit did 72k" is not bad. Saying "The leak said here's a giant list of NPD data:" gets people in trouble and lowers the possibility that the numbers will ever get released.

 

[dumbass_]

It is true.

You know that this prove nothing right? :lol
Who in the hell didn't own PS2?

 

[Revelations]

You know...
usually when you want to make a generalization based on your own guess, it's best to use terms like "most of..." or "a lot of..." and so on.

When you use specific percentages, it makes it seem like a fact and not just speculation. Last I checked though, "your ass" is not a credible source to pull statistics from.

Like I said, I was exaggerating mostly... but the point still stood. Thanks for your concern, much appreciated.

 

[Kozak]

Does anyone still think they are going to get out of 3rd?

Worldwide? Who knows. They may edge it but who cares? Its still going to be a total failure compared to the PS and PS2.

As long as FIFA keeps coming out for Ps3 I'm happy.

 

[gerg]

Good post.

I agree. I believe strongly that the video-game market operates heavily on a "build it and they will come" basis. The 360 has not become the go-to platform for FPSs - and thus has attracted a large male audience - because it was destined to be so. Rather, it is because almost every developer built those games for the platform, attracting the audience, which in turn has attracted further developers to follow suit. If these developers had, instead, developed mini-game collections for the console, the 360 would have attracted a different audience, although perhaps not as successfully.

 

[Jokeropia]

Now, ultimately I reach the same conclusion as you do: the Wii is not the place for high profile, third party games now.

Actually the high profile games seem to do fine. It's the low profile stuff (which sometimes get Internet attention due to a lack of corresponding high profile stuff) that are more hit-and-miss.

 

[Version 3.0]

You know that this prove nothing right? :lol
Who in the hell didn't own PS2?

That's some odd logic there. If everyone had a PS2, then 100% of Wii owners are former PS2 owners.

 

[Accident]

I don't have them but Accident numbers are not complete.

The numbers might not be accurate, the attach rate is always rounded and I'm using the hardware posted in the thread, but that doesn't make the numbers incomplete or wrong

 

[Tiktaalik]

Looking over the leaked numbers a few things come to mind.

1. The fact that NPD only releases the top 10 fools a lot of people into thinking that's the only thing that matters. When you look over this list you can see that games that have been out for quite some time are still doing notable sales. GTA: Chinatown Wars which "bombed" in the GAF sense of the word is still on the charts making money.

2. You can see obviously the impact that a larger userbase has on sales. The Wii and DS lists here are larger. There's a greater number or people buying games and this spreads out the variety.

3. Punchout had an incredibly good 2nd month and it could be a perennial seller, maybe not on the top 10 list, but certainly up there.

4. Madworld's not on the Wii list. Bomba!

 

[bhhawks78]

Has any research on this been publicized lately? I have a really hard time believing the 1% multi-system ownership ratio quoted by Nintendo ages ago can still be accurate ... or ever has been actually (I have a hunch they ignored [active] PS2 ownership).

Especially times like now 2-3-4 years after a system launches. Hey 2nd system has like 10 exclusives i want...hmmm guess it's time to bite the bullet. Also the 2nd hand market helps immensely, hell my parents have a ps3 for blu rays but bought a wii 2 weeks ago because it was 120$ on craigslist. Most of the "hardcore" gamers i know bought a 360 or a ps3, grabbed a wii for the gf/fam/games they missed out on, and are waiting for the slim + 150$ pricecut (2nd hand or not) to nab the third.

 

[CultureClearance]

Why is that surprising? Madworld, Klonoa, Hotd overkill, punchout pre title defense, a ton of the good wii games are just VERY short.

Wii play, wii sports, mario kart, Smash brothers, rock band/guitar hero, wii fit/ea active, all multiplayer or "daily" games that are never "done".

Stuff like RE5, prototype, fable 2, infamous, games that unless you are a HUGE fan, when they end...they end, they are "disposable".

They're also cheaper. And most of the games on that list are games that got cheapest FAST. So, yeah, eventually Wii Game A, B, and C sold 1 million world-wide, BUT at what cost and really how much money are the 3rd party devs seeing of that money? Most likely Nintendo isn't going to take the hit for the price cut. Most likely Gamestop can't take the cut either as they're already seeing little profit out of new unused games. So...that leaves....

 

[Version 3.0]

If that 43k number for the 360 version of Guitar Hero: Smash Hit is correct, then that's the bomb of the month. Yeesh. I wonder if Activision will get the message. Probably not.

edit: not meaning to single out the 360 there, that's the only number I'd seen. I'm sure it bombed just as badly on every system.

 

[Luckyman]

While true, this is just emphasizing Sony's install base problem. I don't see that it makes anyone at Sony or third party publishers happy to know that they can expect about 50% of the sales they will see on the 360.

I don't know at what point the platform starts losing its viability as a money-maker for ports and multi-plats. It's at 54% total software sales per month compared against 360right now. I would guess it can go lower, but how much?

You are acting like PS3 is selling less and less software from now on while it´s clear it will only grow like it has.

 

[gerg]

Has any research on this been publicized lately? I have a really hard time believing the 1% multi-system ownership ratio quoted by Nintendo ages ago can still be accurate ... or ever has been actually (I have a hunch they ignored [active] PS2 ownership).

It depends on how you view the industry. If you consider it to stand on the legs of a large casual base that doesn't care much for games, then it would make sense that only a small percentage of gamers (ie. "hardcore gamers") would want to invest enough in gaming to buy multiple platforms.

You know that this prove nothing right? :lol
Who in the hell didn't own PS2?

While I agree with this, many people seem to think that the Wii has brought in a disastrous brand of new gamers who are ruining the industry. These numbers seek to prove that these gamers have always existed, and pretty much always will.

 

[Jokeropia]

You know that this prove nothing right? :lol
Who in the hell didn't own PS2?

You seem to be confused. There's a large myth that the Wii created it's success primarily due to a huge amount of people that never played videogames before (and only buy casual Nintendo games, if they even buy games at all) when in fact it's winning because of the same people that made PS2 such a success. (The PS2 casuals.)

Edit: Precisely what gerg said.

 

[markatisu]

Now, ultimately I reach the same conclusion as you do: the Wii is not the place for high profile, third party games now. But where you seem to imply this is because the Wii has some sort of anti-third-party forcefield, I reach the much more logical conclusion that it's because third parties spent billions of dollars establishing their brands on the PS3/360, and it would be stupid to force their fanbase over to the Wii at this point.

Great post, and the same could be said about the Wii.

EA spent mega bucks to promote EA Active and Tiger Woods as a Wii brand and look at the results. After the GH3 shock we know Activision branded GH as a Wii and 360 game and look at the results.

If that 43k number for the 360 version of Guitar Hero: Smash Hit is correct, then that's the bomb of the month. Yeesh. I wonder if Activision will get the message. Probably not.

I guess they will look at the fact it sold ~100k between the 360 and Wii, and the game will likely sell through Christmas. I do not think anybody knows how much you have to sell to make a GH game profitable

 

[duk]

WW LTD console #s can be found where?

 

[poppabk]

Now, ultimately I reach the same conclusion as you do: the Wii is not the place for high profile, third party games now.

Tell that to EA who have two massive successes with high profile games - in its second month EA sports active is the 3rd best selling title on a single platform and tiger woods has doubled the sales of the 360 version. Its not so much that third parties shouldn't be putting high profile games on Wii - EA have proved it works - they just need to put the right ones on the system and they need to put some serious effort into them.

 

[Opiate]

I'm not even sure how someone can argue against the "build it and they will come" understanding of how markets work. If you make a ton of great JRPGs for Platform [X], and other platforms have inferior JRPGS or none at all, then obviously JRPG fans will migrate to Platform [X], which has the games they want. This, in turn, attracts more developers looking to make games in the JRPG genre.

How else could this possibly work? I ask that question honestly. The only extension I'd make is understanding the link between generations: that is, many assumed the Playstation 3 would be home to JRPGs because the Playstation 2 was before it. This is in essence the same thing: if Platform [X] is indeed the king of JRPGs, then people will assume that platform [X.1] will continue that trend, and early purchasers may buy the system expecting more of the same. In this case, the Platform is "Playstation systems" and not just any individual iteration of the Playstation.

 

[lowrider007]

(PS3)

Does anyone still think they are going to get out of 3rd?

No, and tbh I don't really care, end of the day what difference does it make to me, the average PS3 user ?, as long as the games keep coming that's all I really care about tbh, I've always been a great fan of supporting the underdog in the console race anyway, and what with the price tag of the PS3 still fairly high there feels like an air of exclusivity to owning a PS3, I like that.

 

[FrankT]

WW LTD console #s can be found where?

Nowhere unless you want to go to the chartz. I recommend not. The best measure is still the shipment figures of the big three each quarter and we will have the latest numbers starting for some of them next week You are only going to get estimates otherwise because we do not get LTD numbers for all of PAL, EMEA, ect.

 

[Opiate]

Tell that to EA who have two massive successes with high profile games - in its second month EA sports active is the 3rd best selling title on a single platform and tiger woods has doubled the sales of the 360 version. Its not so much that third parties shouldn't be putting high profile games on Wii - EA have proved it works - they just need to put the right ones on the system and they need to put some serious effort into them.

You're right, I spoke to generally. When I said "high profile games" I meant what are nebulously referred to as "AAA hardcore games," which includes games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Mass Effect and Bioshock. Not that Tiger Woods and EASA are poor games, at all, they just weren't the type we're talking about here. I think it's fairly clear that people are frustated because they're only getting EASA and Tiger Woods type games, and not Call of Duty style games.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Does anyone still think they are going to get out of 3rd?

I can't believe at one time I thought they'd make up the spread via Europe and Japan.

You're right, I spoke to generally. When I said "high profile games" I meant what are nebulously referred to as "AAA hardcore games," which includes games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Mass Effect and Bioshock. Not that Tiger Woods and EASA are poor games, at all, they just weren't the type we're talking about here. I think it's fairly clear that people are frustated because they're only getting EASA and Tiger Woods type games, and not Call of Duty style games.

Honestly, personally i'm more frustrated that i'm not getting the continuuation of a series that was greatly successful on the Wii (CoD).

 

[rpmurphy]

No, and tbh I don't really care, end of the day what difference does it make to me, the average PS3 user ?, as long as the games keep coming that's all I really care about tbh, I've always been a great fan of supporting the underdog in the console race anyway, and what with the price tag of the PS3 still fairly high there feels like an air of exclusivity owning a PS3, I like that.

I would be surprised if there are actually people who buy only the secondary or tertiary system in every generation on purpose. At least for me, platform history and potential library is a heck of a lot more important than buying a system for popularity/non-popularity factors.

 

[Version 3.0]

WW LTD console #s can be found where?

Worldwide sales numbers are pretty rough estimates, but usually those estimates are posted in this thread eventually.

We only get firm, regularly reported numbers from the US and Japan:

US:
NDS 31,644,158
PSP 15,260,846
X360 15,479,886
PS3 7,915,105
Wii 20,564,781

Japan:
DS 6,585,447
DS Lite 17,586,281
Dsi 2,555,118
PSP 12,426,663
Xbox 360 1,053,552
PS3 3,201,067
Wii 8,081,911

 

[HiResDes]

I would be surprised if there are actually people who buy only the secondary or tertiary system in every generation on purpose. At least for me, platform history and potential library is a heck of a lot more important than buying a system for popularity/non-popularity factors.

If you like that system's first party games the best, then it makes perfect sense. I felt proud to own both the Dreamcast and Genesis, and I would have kept supporting the former system had they kept making games for it.

 

[lowrider007]

I would be surprised if there are actually people who buy only the secondary or tertiary system in every generation on purpose. At least for me, platform history and potential library is a heck of a lot more important than buying a system for popularity/non-popularity factors.

Well not for me, I always like supporting the minority console, as long as it's not got a terribly poor games catalogue then I'll support that system the most, I think it's in everyone's interest that with have at least 3 systems on the market competing, and that isn't going to happen if everyone sticks with the most popular machines, when I originally purchased a 360 on day one I did so with the mind set to support MS in the console race as based on the original xbox I did not expect the 360 it to be as successful as it has become, and hats off to them tbh, but when I saw that the PS3 was struggling to break into the market I pledged my support to that system instead and have continued to do so ever since.

 

[HiResDes]

(PS3)



No, and tbh I don't really care, end of the day what difference does it make to me, the average PS3 user ?, as long as the games keep coming that's all I really care about tbh, I've always been a great fan of supporting the underdog in the console race anyway, and what with the price tag of the PS3 still fairly high there feels like an air of exclusivity to owning a PS3, I like that.

Despite what I said, if you truly are a fan of Sony and its in house developers then you should definitely care about how the PS3 is fairing...Because you know Sony cares, and you know that relatively low sales could affect the decisions that Sony makes in the future.

 

[Opiate]

If you like that system's first party games the best, then it makes perfect sense. I felt proud to own both the Dreamcast and Genesis, and I would have kept supporting the former system had they kept making games for it.

I don't think you understand his point: he's discussing purchasing intention.

Did you buy the the Dreamcast because it sold comparatively poorly? No. You state right here that you bought it because you like the games. That was his point: few (if any people) actually go out to the store thinking, "I want to buy the least popular system!"

 

[HiResDes]

I don't think you understand his point: he's discussing purchasing intention.

Did you buy the the Dreamcast because it sold comparatively poorly? No. You state right here that you bought it because you like the games. That was his point: few (if any people) actually go out to the store thinking, "I want to buy the least popular system!"

Oh, well then on that note I do indeed agree with you...Buying systems based on how they are doing sales-wise seems silly.

 

[markatisu]

You're right, I spoke to generally. When I said "high profile games" I meant what are nebulously referred to as "AAA hardcore games," which includes games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Mass Effect and Bioshock. Not that Tiger Woods and EASA are poor games, at all, they just weren't the type we're talking about here. I think it's fairly clear that people are frustated because they're only getting EASA and Tiger Woods type games, and not Call of Duty style games.

The CoD is baffling, CoD3 sold more than the PS3, CoD WaW sold ~1m if not past that (it still shows up in the 20-30k range 9 months after its release)

Its baffling because Activision loves money, turning down ~1m easy is a bit odd for a company known whore out any IP they can. Regardless of how much the HD version sells, 1m in sales has never been a discouraging factor imho

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Looking over the leaked numbers a few things come to mind.

1. The fact that NPD only releases the top 10 fools a lot of people into thinking that's the only thing that matters. When you look over this list you can see that games that have been out for quite some time are still doing notable sales. GTA: Chinatown Wars which "bombed" in the GAF sense of the word is still on the charts making money.

2. You can see obviously the impact that a larger userbase has on sales. The Wii and DS lists here are larger. There's a greater number or people buying games and this spreads out the variety.

3. Punchout had an incredibly good 2nd month and it could be a perennial seller, maybe not on the top 10 list, but certainly up there.

4. Madworld's not on the Wii list. Bomba!

Is Overkill still tracking? Out of the "Sega Hardcore Trinity", I like that one the most.

 

[Opiate]

Despite what I said, if you truly are a fan of Sony and its in house developers then you should definitely care about how the PS3 is fairing...Because you know Sony cares, and you know that relatively low sales could affect the decisions that Sony makes in the future.

Quite true. Sony's lost billions of dollars on the PS3. This will unquestionably affect their future efforts in some way. For example, growth at SCE has been non existant since Sony bought Guerrilla outright, where they were buying up developers very aggressively in the PS2 and early PS3 era. In fact, some studios have been consolidated (e.g. Psygnosis and Evolution). Can I prove this is a consequence of Sony's position? No, but it seems very likely.

Further, think of what Sony would be doing right now if the PS3 had made 4 billion dollars, rather than lost it. Sony's options would be far more plentiful, and they could afford to be far more liberal.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Well not for me, I always like supporting the minority console, as long as it's not got a terribly poor games catalogue then I'll support that system the most, I think it's in everyone interest that with have at least 3 systems on the market competing, and that isn't going to happen if everyone sticks with the most popular machines, when I originally purchased a 360 on day one I did so with the mind set to support MS in the console race as based on the original xbox I did not expect the 360 it to be as successful as it has become, and hats off to them tbh, but when I saw that the PS3 was struggling to break into the market I pledged my support to that system instead and have continued to do so ever since.

Weirdest god damn post ever.

 

[markatisu]

Is Overkill still tracking? Out of the "Sega Hardcore Trinity", I like that one the most.

Not if the Top 20 leaked is true, the only "light gun" games are Links Crossbow and CoD WaW (which has an on-rails mode)

Coincidentally Best Buy has both those games featured in their ad to buy the Zapper :lol

So maybe HVS should have included an on-rails mode!

 

[Evlar]

Hmm. OK, if those attach rates as quoted are lifetime software divided by lifetime hardware we can get some interesting figures by comparing the current attach rate of 8.6 to the last claimed attach rate from Microsoft I can find: 8.2 in response to the February NPD. This leads to other numbers, such as approximately 13.8 million total units of software sold on 360 in March, April, May, and June NPD reporting periods. And, by looking at the current LTD hardware of 15.5 million 360s sold as of June 2009 we can find that 0.89 games were sold since February for each 360 sold LTD.

To simplify, for every ten 360s ever sold in the US, nine games have been purchased since early March.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Not if the Top 20 leaked is true, the only "light gun" games are Links Crossbow and CoD WaW (which has an on-rails mode)

Coincidentally Best Buy has both those games featured in their ad to buy the Zapper :lol

So maybe HVS should have included an on-rails mode!

Hrm, then do we know the US LTD? Sorry for being so greedy.

 

[HiResDes]

Hmm. OK, if those attach rates as quoted are lifetime software divided by lifetime hardware we can get some interesting figures by comparing the current attach rate of 8.6 to the last claimed attach rate from Microsoft I can find: 8.2 in response to the February NPD. This leads to other numbers, such as approximately 13.8 million total units of software sold on 360 in March, April, May, and June NPD reporting periods. And, by looking at the current LTD hardware of 15.5 million 360s sold as of June 2009 we can find that 0.89 games were sold since February for each 360 sold LTD.

To simplify, for every ten 360s ever sold in the US, nine games have been purchased since early March.

Thanks Rainman

 

[poppabk]

You're right, I spoke to generally. When I said "high profile games" I meant what are nebulously referred to as "AAA hardcore games," which includes games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Mass Effect and Bioshock. Not that Tiger Woods and EASA are poor games, at all, they just weren't the type we're talking about here. I think it's fairly clear that people are frustated because they're only getting EASA and Tiger Woods type games, and not Call of Duty style games.

I agree, but the Wii has also seen a lack of "high profile" games that appeal to the audience that people assume it does have. I don't think we can even begin to imagine that 3rd parties are going to release AAA games in traditional genres if they are unwilling to release AAA/AA/A games in any genre including those that are supposed to be the market that exists on Wii.

 

[Opiate]

I agree, but the Wii has also seen a lack of "high profile" games that appeal to the audience that people assume it does have. I don't think we can even begin to imagine that 3rd parties are going to release AAA games in traditional genres if they are unwilling to release AAA/AA/A games in any genre including those that are supposed to be the market that exists on Wii.

Look back at my post on the last page. This is essentially what I said there, which started this discussion.

 

[markatisu]

Hrm, then do we know the US LTD? Sorry for being so greedy.

Anihawk might know, I know SEGA said it sold better when they temp dropped the price to $29

I would think by now its got to be near 90-100k (that would be a min of 10k per month since launch)

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Anihawk might know, I know SEGA said it sold better when they temp dropped the price to $29

I would think by now its got to be near 90-100k (that would be a min of 10k per month since launch)

Seems reasonable. I'm sure it's WW is pretty good too, I don't know how the HotD series fares in Japan, but it's been on the UK charts many times since it released.

 

[garks]

Well not for me, I always like supporting the minority console, as long as it's not got a terribly poor games catalogue then I'll support that system the most, I think it's in everyone's interest that with have at least 3 systems on the market competing, and that isn't going to happen if everyone sticks with the most popular machines, when I originally purchased a 360 on day one I did so with the mind set to support MS in the console race as based on the original xbox I did not expect the 360 it to be as successful as it has become, and hats off to them tbh, but when I saw that the PS3 was struggling to break into the market I pledged my support to that system instead and have continued to do so ever since.

That's quite common I think. Personally, even though I own all of the consoles, I tend to back the 360 more because I truly believe it's still an underdog in terms of popularity. I still think the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 this gen, even though numbers don't show that right now.

 

[lowrider007]

Weirdest god damn post ever.

Your always on my fucking case nit picking everything I say, 'if' your so fucking clever don't try to take everyone's post so bloody literal and understand that not everyone is an English professor and try to read between the lines and comprehend what that person is saying instead of nit picking all the time just to show other people up and make yourself feel clever, try feeling good about yourself in other ways for once instead of spending your life on here being anal.

You see the thing is your not really being clever at all, as real intelligent people can grasp what people are trying to convey even when they may not be articulating themselves properly, but 'nerds' (and I mean that in the British sense of the word) can't seem to be able to do this, everything has to be perfectly executed before there brains can understand things properly.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Your always on my fucking case nit picking everything I say, 'if' your so fucking clever don't try to take everyone's post so bloody literal and understand that not everyone is an English professor and try to read between the lines and comprehend what that person is saying instead of nit picking all the time just to show other people up and make yourself feel clever, try feeling good about yourself in other ways for once instead of spending your life on here being anal.

You see the thing is your not really being clever at all, as real intelligent people can grasp what people are trying to convey even when they may not be articulating themselves properly, but 'nerds' (and I mean that in the British sense of the word) can't seem to be able to do this, everything has to be perfectly executed before there brains can understand things properly.

Calm down buddy.

It strikes me as damn weird to base your purchasing decisions on some odd notion of leveling the playing field between mammoth corporations when most people buy and consume simply based on what they enjoy or what they perceive they will enjoy. You are perfectly entitled to continue your (odd from my perspective) purchasing habits. I don't even know who you are as a poster.

 

[donny2112]

It'll probably be next week before I really have a chance to catch up in this thread, but I wanted to go ahead and respond to this.

Is Donny willing to admit that these type of games have been well and truly killed off on the Wii at this point? The game sold approximately 1/5th as much as he expected.

Pretty much. There's obviously some audience there, or it wouldn't even have sold the paltry numbers it did. There's a chance it'll have legs, but even if it does, it still shows that the hardcore buyer that purchases games Day 1 doesn't seem to have a generally strong presence on Wii. :/

I like the game. I hope there's a Conduit 2. But I also hope that the Day 1 gamer audience on Wii is in much better shape then than it is right now. :lol

 

[jmdajr]

well at least sony must be happy about this

Blu-ray celebrates 91 percent sales increase for first half of 2009

 

[poppabk]

An interesting? observation - if you plot the data that may or may not be real, the 360 and Wii software track almost identically except for the top 3 titles.
-I'd post the graph but I'm not sure if representations of illegal data, even if they lack the actual data are allowed

 

[CoolTrick]

Naive question of someone who hasn't been following:


Why is there so much at stake with The Conduit selling well? Did it even turn out to be a good game?

 

[markatisu]

I like the game. I hope there's a Conduit 2. But I also hope that the Day 1 gamer audience on Wii is in much better shape then than it is right now. :lol

There probably will be The Conduit 2, I mean surely HVS could get Data Design Interactive to publish it to Walmarts at a min. Christ they would probably be ecstatic about 70k in sales :lol