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[Jokeropia]

It's falling behind pretty distinctly in recent months. It was ahead of the PS3 by .2 attach rate just a year ago, and now is behind .4. That's a significant swing. At that rate, the PS3 would have 2+ more games attached within three years.

Wii has sold much more hardware during the last 12 months than PS3, which is why Joshua's "average ownership in weeks" is a better stat for this particular issue.

That is not just a example, Joker, it is the example. The only one. In the last 2 years.

Coincidentally, it's also the only FPS in that time that could be considered remotely high profile.

Regardless, the 1M+ people in question have not disappeared.

Which was outsold four fold by its 360 counterpart.

Several reasons for this, with the nonexistence of a COD4 Wii being a big one.

 

[tenten]

Worldwide? Yes. In the U.S.? Hells no.

You think so? Japan is not enough for the ps3 to wipe out the deficit in NA.
Europe is pretty much dead even at the moment as both Sony and MS PR say they're leading...

 

[Opiate]

Who's to say it won't change again in the Wii's favour?

I imagine we have to look at release lists here, and consider which games would compel each console's respective owners to buy games for it, thus changing the attach rate.

It certainly could. I agree that at some point in the future, it certainly could happen.

What I'm suggesting is that it hasn't. What has actually happened in the real world over the last 6-12 months is that the Wii has fallen noticably behind. What happens in the future is anyone's guess.

If things change in the next 6-12 months, I will certainly change my tune to suit that. Just as I do with all data if things change.

 

[gerg]

What I'm suggesting is that it hasn't. What has actually happened in the real world over the last 6-12 months is that the Wii has fallen noticably behind. What happens in the future is anyone's guess.

Fair enough.

Although I don't think the fall in Wii sales means that potential Wii buyers are turning into potential 360 or PS3 buyers (and then actually buying those consoles), so as I have said before I don't think Nintendo is concerned about the Wii's decline. I imagine that they will become so if software releases can't rekindle the Wii's sales.

 

[Opiate]

Wii has sold much more hardware during the last 12 months than PS3, which is why Joshua's "average ownership in weeks" is a better stat for this particular issue.

This is a reasonable argument. I'll have to think on it.

Coincidentally, it's also the only FPS in that time that could be considered remotely high profile.

Regardless, the 1M+ people in question have not disappeared.
Several reasons for this, with the nonexistence of a COD4 Wii being a big one.

Absolutely, that is a big reason. But even if this lack of support was a critical error on the part of third parties (and I would strongly argue that it was), that's already happened, and now here we are. I've already agreed that the Wii's apparent weakness in the shooter market is primarly, perhaps even exclusively, a direct result of the lack of support. Nobody's made great shooters for the thing.

I'm not blaming the Wii here, or saying the struggles it has shown with core games are a fault inherent to the system or anything. It's clearly a consequence of lack of support: people go where the games they want are, and if you're a shooter fan, those games aren't on the Wii. Many shooter fans likely would have been on the Wii if the system had gotten significant support, but as you just told me, that didn't happen.

 

[radjago]

Good to see Starfy sneaking in the top 20. Maybe this won't be the only game in the series that they bring over.

 

[Jokeropia]

Absolutely, that is a big reason. But that's already happened, and now here we are. I've already agreed that the Wii's apparent weakness in the shooter market is primarly, perhaps even exclusively, a direct result of the lack of support. Nobody's made any shooters for the thing.

I'm not blaming the Wii here, or saying the struggles it has shown with core games are a fault inherent to the system or anything. It's clearly a consequence of lack of support: people go where the games they want are, and if you're a shooter fan, those games aren't on the Wii. Many shooter fans likely would have been on the Wii if the system had gotten significant support, but as you just told me, that didn't happen.

Right. I don't disagree that the shooter market on Wii most likely haven't grown much during these last years while it obviously grew a lot on the 360, I'm just saying that the market's still there and worth appealing to. (If only through multiplatform releases of the big franchises.)

 

[poppabk]

It's falling behind pretty distinctly in recent months. It was ahead of the PS3 by .2 attach rate just a year ago, and now is behind .4. That's a significant swing. At that rate, the PS3 would have 2+ more games attached within three years.

April 2008
Xbox 360: Software sales ratio: 7.5
Wii: Software sales ratio: 5.3
PS3: Software sales ratio: 4.6
http://gamer.blorge.com/2008/04/27/xbox-360-leads-software-attach-rate-even-the-wii-beats-ps3/
Assuming linear extrapolation for 3 (and a half years)
360 11.9
PS3 13.4
Wii 9.7

So the PS3 is the software king

 

[Opiate]

Right. I don't disagree that the shooter market on Wii most likely haven't grown much during these last years while it obviously grew a lot on the 360, I'm just saying that the market's still there and worth appealing to. (If only through multiplatform releases of the big franchises.)

Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is the case. As has been noted many times before, the unique nature of the Wii makes porting significantly more expensive, and I've seen some indicate that making a port for Wii (Downscaling the graphics engine, optimizing for a new controller) is nearly as expensive an undertaking as a whole new project.

It would really depend on how much the costs are. 50% of a typical game? Probably worth it then, even if the game sells only 1/5th as much as it does on the 360. 75% of a typical game? Then we're in unclear territory.

 

[Jokeropia]

Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is the case. As has been noted many times before, the unique nature of the Wii makes porting significantly more expensive, and I've seen some indicate that making a port for Wii (Downscaling the graphics engine, optimizing for a new controller) is nearly as expensive an undertaking as a whole new project.

It would really depend on how much the costs are. 50% of a typical game? Probably worth it then, even if the game sells only 1/5th as much as it does on the 360. 75% of a typical game? Then we're in unclear territory.

CoD:WaW is the only example we've got, right? I find it very unlikely that 1M+ sales were not enough to make a profit.

 

[gerg]

Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is the case. As has been noted many times before, the unique nature of the Wii makes porting significantly more expensive, and I've seen some indicate that making a port for Wii (Downscaling the graphics engine, optimizing for a new controller) is nearly as expensive an undertaking as a whole new project.

It would really depend on how much the costs are. 50% of a typical game? Probably worth it then, even if the game sells only 1/5th as much as it does on the 360. 75% of a typical game? Then we're in unclear territory.

One must also remember that after the initial engine is set up, creating or porting new games for the console gets significantly cheaper. If Activision has any brains and is actually make MW2 for the Wii, I imagine the costs would be much less than making CoD 5 was (I hardly imagine it could be more expensive).

 

[AniHawk]

Let me expand on my statement:

Well as someone else stated, the game had the benefits of having a pretty full month, supporting Wii MotionPlus, having recieved favorable reviews, and being an exclusive.
I personally would say that it should have also benefitted from the fact it is a cartoony game and a sports game, which do pretty well on Wii.

Considering Grand Slam had a new artstyle and Tiger didn't, I think EA could be a little worried about how their upcoming games with the Grand Slam style will fair (Madden and Fifa). Though, maybe these sales could be considered good compared to other Tennis titles' sales. I haven't kept up with others.

Virtua Tennis did best on the Wii, yet all three versions combined were outsold by Grand Slam Tennis.

Tennis has never really done well in the States. The most I've ever seen a Tennis game do is Tennis 2K2 on the PS2. It didn't hit 100k for its lifetime.

 

[Opiate]

It's irrelevant, we've learned just today that MW2 is not being made for Wii. That's been confirmed officially. It's not coming.

 

[gerg]

Virtua Tennis did best on the Wii, yet all three versions combined were outsold by Grand Slam Tennis.

Tennis has never really done well in the States. The most I've ever seen a Tennis game do is Tennis 2K2 from back in the day. It didn't hit 100k for its lifetime.

Wow. It's that bad?

Out of curiousity, someone once wrote that for every 200k units of a game sold, one million dollars was made. Does anyone know who made this post?

It's irrelevant, we've learned just today that MW2 is not being made for Wii. That's been confirmed officially. It's not coming.

Regardless, I imagine that were it made, the costs would be cheaper.

 

[markatisu]

Virtua Tennis did best on the Wii, yet all three versions combined were outsold by Grand Slam Tennis.

Tennis has never really done well in the States. The most I've ever seen a Tennis game do is Tennis 2K2 on the PS2. It didn't hit 100k for its lifetime.

EA total domination at under 60k :lol:

 

[vanguardian1]

That is not just a example, Joker, it is the example. The only one. In the last 2 years. Which was outsold four fold by its 360 counterpart.

To be honest, I'm shocked WaW Wii sold as well as it has. The "installer" game here was Call of Duty 4 : Modern Warfare. You wanted the game? You had to have a good PC, or a PS3 or 360. No exceptions. And what, 11+ million bought the game? And then the next year, a "lower rated" COD game comes out, ALSO on the Wii, while there are still 11 million+ Cod4 PC/360/PS3 owners. How many of them are going to switch from the hd versions to the Wii version? Why should they? They already have their friends/achievements/trophies on other platforms, that they own, or BOUGHT just for COD4.

Personally, I have no doubt that a "proper" Modern Warfare 2 Wii that met these qualifications :

A) Well made with full features (aka no missing multiplayer modes, and includes local multiplayer, wiispeak and proper friendcode recognition)
B) Properly launched
C) Properly advertised alongside the HD versions

.. would sell less than 2 million worldwide, maybe 3+ if with a bit of luck.



In some ways, Cod3 and W@W Wii was like Call of Duty 2 for 360, it was a fairly solid game that created an install base for these types of games. Unfortunately, it was abandoned after each success. The difference is that the 360's fps/COD audience kept being catered to, while the wii audience will, both times now, be put out to the pasture.

Infinity Ward *does* have the right to choose not to make a Wii version, I couldn't argue that any way I wanted. But if they say there isn't a sufficient audience that cares for those types of games on the Wii, then it's equivalent to someone complaining about a car not running (out of gas) when they refused to put any gas in the car.

Oh, side note. I used to love FPS games, starting from Wolf-3d, but it's been a bore in recent years (last ones I *really* enjoyed was UT2K4 and Call of Duty 2). I was *almost* tempted to get the conduit, but a mediocre 8-hour single player campaign (only) doesn't suit me well. Red Steel was a lot of fun single player, once you configured the controller around the bugs, and guess what? I had quite a bit of fun playing it with friends too. I look forward to Red Steel 2 (Day 1 despite no multiplayer) But I won't even consider the Conduit until it drops in price dramatically. And I know I'm not alone with my feelings towards the FPS genre on the Wii.

 

[Jokeropia]

It's irrelevant, we've learned just today that MW2 is not being made for Wii. That's been confirmed officially. It's not coming.

It doesn't change the fact that it most likely would be profitable if it was made.

 

[perfectchaos007]

It's irrelevant, we've learned just today that MW2 is not being made for Wii. That's been confirmed officially. It's not coming.

franchises usually get started after a GREAT first outing. Madworld was good, but not great enough to warrent a sequel. Same with the Conduit. Good game, but not great enough to warrent a sequel. Now if a great game sold poorly and resulted in no sequel, I'd be worried.

Spoiler

Red Steel is the exception apparently

 

[poppabk]

CoD:WaW is the only example we've got, right? I find it very unlikely that 1M+ sales were not enough to make a profit.

QoS which supposedly sold best on Wii according to an unconfirmed leak.

 

[gerg]

QoS which supposedly sold best on Wii according to an unconfirmed leak.

From what I remember, the game sold incredibly poorly on all platforms. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the reason the Wii version sold best was because 360/PS3 owners literally had better games to play.

 

[AniHawk]

Wow. It's that bad?

Out of curiousity, someone once wrote that for every 200k units of a game sold, one million dollars was made. Does anyone know who made this post?

That would mean the developer/publisher gets only about 10% or less off what a game does. I have to say that percentage seems pretty steep. Although maybe the 200k for $1m thing is a bonus for some companies.

 

[nincompoop]

How did The Munchables fare in its second month? Is it going to crack the 1k barrier any time soon?

 

[laserbeam]

franchises usually get started after a GREAT first outing. Madworld was good, but not great enough to warrent a sequel. Same with the Conduit. Good game, but not great enough to warrent a sequel. Now if a great game sold poorly and resulted in no sequel, I'd be worried.

Spoiler

Red Steel is the exception apparently

Its hard to say what will happen with the Conduit. HVS has 2 more games in development that they have not announced yet and 1 is confirmed to be a Wii FPS.

The Conduit was not a 10 million dollar game or anything so worldwide sales may more than justify a sequel by the end of the year.

WaW bombed its first month and is now another of the Wiis many million sellers. I dont expect the Conduit to break a Million ever but I could see 500k lifetime being achievable worldwide and that would be sequel worthy for a Wii games budget.

MW2 is not coming simply because the developer never does Wii games. The next COD is guaranteed to be on Wii.

 

[Xeke]

Wow there is a whole lot of poop on the floor in this thread.

 

[gerg]

That would mean the developer/publisher gets only about 10% or less off what a game does. I have to say that percentage seems pretty steep. Although maybe the 200k for $1m thing is a bonus for some companies.

Steep as in too high or too low?

I remember ~133k copies being the lower benchmark for the same amount.

In a way I find it hard to imagine that a game could make money on $3 million (hi there Bionic Commando!), but that might be indicative of simply how much development costs have ballooned and warped my ideas of how much it takes to make a profit.

 

[AniHawk]

Steep as in too high or too low?

I remember ~133k copies being the lower benchmark for the same amount.

Too high. I thought retailers don't make a whole lot, and manufacturing/royalties shouldn't cost that much. We're not even talking $10 back on a $50 game. We're talking $5 back on a $50 game. Or less.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

WOW. 360 version of Ghostbusters ranked 11th, while the other versions didn't place top 20. LA BOMB-BA.:lol

 

[Kifimbo]

WOW. 360 version of Ghostbusters ranked 11th, while the other versions didn't place top 20. LA BOMB-BA.:lol

It almost sold half a million combined, it's not a bomba.

 

[gerg]

Too high. I thought retailers don't make a whole lot, and manufacturing/royalties shouldn't cost that much. We're not even talking $10 back on a $50 game. We're talking $5 back on a $50 game. Or less.

For some reason I'm not quite understanding your wording, but you're saying that developers only get $5 for every $50 game sold? It's just when you say that retailers don't take a lot from the price, and manufacturing/royalties are relatively cheap, to say then that developers only make $X doesn't seem to follow.

When you say that they get $5 back on a $50 game, are you talking in terms of pure profit?

... I must be tired.

Edit: for clarity, I was referring to revenue when talking about money made per game sold.

 

[Vinci]

Wow there is a whole lot of poop on the floor in this thread.

Pretty typical, no?

 

[poppabk]

Too high. I thought retailers don't make a whole lot, and manufacturing/royalties shouldn't cost that much. We're not even talking $10 back on a $50 game. We're talking $5 back on a $50 game. Or less.

Depends if it is before or after marketing etc.

 

[Taurus]

It's falling behind pretty distinctly in recent months. It was ahead of the PS3 by .2 attach rate just a year ago, and now is behind .4. That's a significant swing. At that rate, the PS3 would have 2+ more games attached within three years.

Did you notice that almost every PS3 sold comes bundled with a game, and some bundles have even two games? Afaik Wii Sports isn't counted at all (or is it?).

PS3 software isn't harmed by downloaded software at all but Wii is very easy to mod and Internet is full of sites to download Wii games.

So, how big difference does this make in the big picture? I don't know, but PS3 selling less than half a game more when the installed base difference is more than double in favor of Wii is nothing to be happy about.

 

[AniHawk]

For some reason I'm not quite understanding your wording, but you're saying that developers only get $5 for every $50 game sold? It's just when you say that retailers don't take a lot from the price, and manufacturing/royalties are relatively cheap, to say then that developers only make $X doesn't seem to follow.

When you say that they get $5 back on a $50 game, are you talking in terms of pure profit?

... I must be tired.

Er. My mistake. I was mixing revenue and profit in my head. Maybe the 200k mark that was listed was when the company makes their first million dollars on the game then, and that whatever cash comes afterward continues to go towards that profit (instead of recouping costs).

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

It almost sold half a million combined, it's not a bomba.

But how much did each console version cost to make? :lol

 

[nib95]

April 2008
Xbox 360: Software sales ratio: 7.5
Wii: Software sales ratio: 5.3
PS3: Software sales ratio: 4.6
http://gamer.blorge.com/2008/04/27/xbox-360-leads-software-attach-rate-even-the-wii-beats-ps3/
Assuming linear extrapolation for 3 (and a half years)
360 11.9
PS3 13.4
Wii 9.7

So the PS3 is the software king

Are you sure about this? I'm usually used to hearing the PS3 is a software sales flop.

 

[Psychotext]

Are you sure about this? I'm usually used to hearing the PS3 is a software sales flop.

Linear extrapolation doesn't really work too well in this case.

 

[gerg]

Er. My mistake. I was mixing revenue and profit in my head. Maybe the 200k mark that was listed was when the company makes their first million dollars on the game then, and that whatever cash comes afterward continues to go towards that profit (instead of recouping costs).

I'm not sure. I'll look for the original post, but I remember it regarded the amount of copies that would need to be sold to reach $1 million, whether it be profit or revenue.

 

[Kifimbo]

But how much did each console version cost to make? :lol

Who knows. But selling 440k copies mean they probably shipped (=sold) at least 600k.

 

[poppabk]

Linear extrapolation doesn't really work too well in this case.

Yeah, that was my point - well that and attach rate is not a very good metric.

 

[sciplore]

Drat, got caught in the last post of the last page reposting here again thread was really moving earlier:

Just look at this, its Nov 2005 NPD. November is one of the biggest months in gaming



Compare this to Nov 2008

Woah that is simply crazy, and it only took three years :lol

But looking at that brings up another point about PS3 software sales. The xbox version of a new game release would outsell the ps2 version at first but eventually the ps2 version would come out higher because of the larger install base. None of the ps3 games have ever done this, except for a tight handful like fighting games, sega genesis collection and etc. I see this happen when some of the GH and RB games were released they would sell high at first on 360 than drop as the Wii versions continues to stay steady and then overpass in the 360 LTD.

I know it cannot be the install base thing, I am pretty sure the ps2 was double the xbox at the time but correct me if I am wrong though. Any thoughts on why it is like this? Blu-ray? Third place console position?

 

[jvm]

Not that y'all haven't already figured it out, those are LTD tie ratios for the big three.

Spoiler

And, I'll add, it's not an attach rate. Pet peeve. :lol

 

[Arde5643]

Drat, got caught in the last post of the last page reposting here again thread was really moving earlier:

More mainstream and more casual install base is the best answer I think.

The current install base of PS3 is pretty much the same as or perhaps even more concentrated than 360 base - hardcore players who buy new games usually on the 1st week it released or pre-orders them.

 

[charlequin]

Or developers and publishers are realistic and realize they can profit without having to sell 1m copies

This becomes increasingly untrue as development costs (and, therefore, sales thresholds to recoup them) increase by such huge factors with each new generation.

Just look at this, its Nov 2005 NPD.

Maybe you should dig up the November 2004 NPD there, (Master) chief.

Who's to say it won't change again in the Wii's favour?

All software patterns become increasingly more set in stone with each passing month (and, more importantly, increasing install base.) At the beginning of a generation, all it takes is one really good game of type X to start up some momentum that other games can pick up and carry; later on, it gets harder and harder, and single games become largely irrelevant (thus the often-mocked "wait for...!" meme.)

Turnarounds are certainly possible (just ask the PSP) but they require a drastic, concerted effort. Since Nintendo have approximately zero core games announced for Wii that don't primarily appeal to the existing market there, and third party publishers are dropping the system like it's deadly poison, I don't really see where such an effort could really be expected to come from.

It almost sold half a million combined, it's not a bomba.

So far, Ghostbusters is far and away the most successful of the discarded ex-Activision properties. It actually did pretty decently for itself.

 

[ComputerNerd]

ugh

How was Rare not 2nd party?

Nintendo only owned part of them. Not the majority. They owned 49% of Rare, if I recall. They were still 2nd party.


Would you consider SquareEnix a 1st party Sony developer, since Sony owns part of SquareEnix?

 

[soldat7]

hopefully nsmb wii will be just as monstrous

If NSMB Wii outsells SMG2 then I'm gonna find out where they're planning the space elevator and start a line.

 

[Owzers]

But how much did each console version cost to make? :lol

:lol :lol :lol

One smiley face per console version.


Game did not bomb.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

If NSMB Wii outsells SMG2 then I'm gonna find out where they're planning the space elevator and start a line.

Do yourself a favor and get in line now. I wouldn't be surprised if NSMB Wii outsold both Galaxy games by a factor of 2.

 

[gerg]

All software patterns become increasingly more set in stone with each passing month (and, more importantly, increasing install base.) At the beginning of a generation, all it takes is one really good game of type X to start up some momentum that other games can pick up and carry; later on, it gets harder and harder, and single games become largely irrelevant (thus the often-mocked "wait for...!" meme.)

Turnarounds are certainly possible (just ask the PSP) but they require a drastic, concerted effort. Since Nintendo have approximately zero core games announced for Wii that don't primarily appeal to the existing market there, and third party publishers are dropping the system like it's deadly poison, I don't really see where such an effort could really be expected to come from.

I'm not denying this.

It just seems that the current 0.6 drop in the Wii's attach rate is more the direct result of a lack of high-profile games (and increases in the Wii's sales) over the past few months, and is something that could be reversed once such games are released (cue WSR, NSMB Wii and Wii Fit Plus). I don't see why it must represent an inevitable decrease in Wii software sales.

Basically, I don't understand why such a fluctuation can't be expected.

Maybe you misread my post as in regards specifically to a massive turnaround in the sales of FPS games on the Wii? Of course, I would never expect that to occur.

 

[The Technomancer]

More mainstream and more casual install base is the best answer I think.

The current install base of PS3 is pretty much the same as or perhaps even more concentrated than 360 base - hardcore players who buy new games usually on the 1st week it released or pre-orders them.

Yup, where the Wii install base is more likely to be mom's dragging their kids to Target, where Timmy wants that Boom Blox game regardless of weather it was released a week ago or a year ago.
Unfortunatly, this means for hardcore titles like HotD:Overkill, or as we saw with MadWorld, the relatively small hardcore base on Wii picks up those titles week one, but than we see a really sharp drop off as everyone who cared already has a copy.

 

[Cheez-It]

If NSMB Wii outsells SMG2 then I'm gonna find out where they're planning the space elevator and start a line.

Joking?

As common as 3d titles are nowadays, there is a MASSIVE demographic group of people who simply have trouble with or aren't interested in 3d titles.

With a 2d title, you control two planes of motion. It's far more simple than controlling a 3d game. I think most people here are accustomed to 3d titles and don't realize the leap from 2d gaming that it constitutes. NSMB Wii will sell fucking boatloads if Nintendo puts any effort into it at all.