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NPD Sales Results For June 2010
- Thread starter V_Ben
- Start date
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Opiate said:
No. I've said a million, billion times that only a game that is created by a developer owned by the console maker is a first party title but I'm constantly shouted down that if the console maker publishes it then it's first party. If the search function worked, I could quote tons of people. I've argued this till I'm blue in the face but many, many posters (again, give me search) want to say as long as it's first party published... it's a first party title.
DangerousDave
Member
Well... if we want to discuss about the first party thing...
Sales-wise, is not very relevant if it's first or simply exclusive.
Because the problem that has 360 is that there is no exclusive game in the future.
There is Gears 3, last exclusive game from Epic.
Halo Reach, last exclusive game from Bungie. Even if 343 continue with Halo, they won't be ready to make another Halo in at least two years. And Bungie has a lot of reputation, I don't know if Halo fans will accept a non-Bungie Halo.
And, Fable III. After this, Molyneux will need 2-3 years for a new game.
Remedy just launched Alan Wake, no game from them in 3-4 years. And is not first party, i think, so maybe they'll go multiplatform after this.
Rare and other minor Microsoft studios are with Kinect, the rests of Ensemble are doing a PC game, Crackdown 2 has just been released, so that team (that don't seems AAA) won't have anything ready in the next 2 years...
And, more important, no exclusives (ignoring Kinect) except a Crytek trailer for a game that it won't be launched soon.
So, after this 3 titles, there is nothing exclusive to Microsoft in nearly two years. The japanese exclusive RPG are over, and Sony probably will launch, in this next two years, around 10 first party games (not counting move exclusive), and a lot of japanese exclusive games.
So anything that can move 360 hardware in the next 2 years depends exclusively of Kinect. That may be a success, or may be a failure.
So, yes, the numbers of this month don't imply that 360 don't need more first party or exclusive games. They're only a logical peak of a price drop and a slim model.
Sales-wise, is not very relevant if it's first or simply exclusive.
Because the problem that has 360 is that there is no exclusive game in the future.
There is Gears 3, last exclusive game from Epic.
Halo Reach, last exclusive game from Bungie. Even if 343 continue with Halo, they won't be ready to make another Halo in at least two years. And Bungie has a lot of reputation, I don't know if Halo fans will accept a non-Bungie Halo.
And, Fable III. After this, Molyneux will need 2-3 years for a new game.
Remedy just launched Alan Wake, no game from them in 3-4 years. And is not first party, i think, so maybe they'll go multiplatform after this.
Rare and other minor Microsoft studios are with Kinect, the rests of Ensemble are doing a PC game, Crackdown 2 has just been released, so that team (that don't seems AAA) won't have anything ready in the next 2 years...
And, more important, no exclusives (ignoring Kinect) except a Crytek trailer for a game that it won't be launched soon.
So, after this 3 titles, there is nothing exclusive to Microsoft in nearly two years. The japanese exclusive RPG are over, and Sony probably will launch, in this next two years, around 10 first party games (not counting move exclusive), and a lot of japanese exclusive games.
So anything that can move 360 hardware in the next 2 years depends exclusively of Kinect. That may be a success, or may be a failure.
So, yes, the numbers of this month don't imply that 360 don't need more first party or exclusive games. They're only a logical peak of a price drop and a slim model.
Green Biker Dude
Banned
yeah, but if the psp can't move software now when there is absolutely nothing coming out for the ds, what chance will it have once the 3ds is out and getting a bunch of games?TruePrime said:
i dunno, maybe it will but i wouldn't be surprised if it didn't
DangerousDave
Member
JaxJag said:
Yep
No, not really. But the amount of first party studios of a company is something known. And is also known when they launched the last game. And, sometimes, even what's the game that they're doing.
If you look for information of all Microsoft game studios, you'll see when they released the last game, what games have they done and in what amount of time(or at least time between the launch of the games), and it's easy to see that right now Microsoft don't have enought people for a decent lineup in the next two years.
In the last years, Microsoft disbandled a lot of studios and the newer studios, instead of growing them with more people, has been redirected to Kinect games.
Tylahedras
Banned
We expect SCII to be in the Retail top ten next month right? ...Right?
OldJadedGamer
Banned
DangerousDave said:
My point from earlier was that sales of exclusive games really don't push that many so to consumers buying them it's not that big of a difference if it's exclusive or not. They just buy games. For instance, the wildly critically acclaimed Uncharted 2 sold less than the original Army of Two in their first months. That's why I asked if third party games are selling off the hook for the system what is the huge rush to have all these exclusives more than the major blockbuster sellers they already have planned?
onken
Member
The PSP's problem is that it's still doing pretty well in Japan, and since even the hardware is turning a profit I guess they want to carrying on wringing that golden goose for every yen they can. A new handheld is definitely needed of course, but I can see why they're dragging their feet with it.
BishopLamont
Banned
I'm leaning towards that way too, but I have faith in Iwata's magic.legend166 said:
Here's 2011's line-up:DangerousDave said:
Gears 3
Forza 4
Game from Lionhead (there's two teams, and I doubt the Milo&Kate tech is going in some casual non-game)
Game from Rare (there's four teams, I seriously doubt they're all working on Kinect shovelware)
There's also that Crytek game you mentioned, and Mass Effect 3 which should be released next fall or early 2012. After that point, you're getting into next-gen territory.
Microsoft doesn't have the largest first party in the world, but it's not like there's a dearth of games.
Tylahedras
Banned
azentium said:
Ah ok, I thought PC game just never, ever, EVER charted (at retail). Which was stupid of me.
DangerousDave
Member
OldJadedGamer said:
Yeah, but the important is not always a single title, is the amount of exclusives.
A very few people in US bough PS3 for a single game. Not for Uncharted, only a few for MGS, only a few for LBP. But, in the end, a lot of people with 360 bought a PS3 because of the amount of exclusive games. Not for a single one, but because each interesting exclusive game was a small push towards the shop.
And I don't see that trend for Microsoft, in the future. They have the big Kinect card, but out of there, I don't see what games are offering for a current non-360 user to buy one.
OldJadedGamer said:
Okay. Those people are (mostly) not here. This is a discussion between you and I, and we seem to agree. This is a very bizarre form of argumentation you're presenting here, JadedGamer. You purport to agree with my position, but are vehemently arguing against it anyway because other people disagreed at some point in the past.
When I ask who these disagreeable people are, you make vague references to people in the past. So I can't reason with actual people (since you are claiming "they" are the ones who hold this contrarian position) and you've presented no actual argument other than that other people disagree. You're not giving me a lot to work with here.
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
I can't believe you actually stated up above that after Gears 3 hits stores next spring there will be no exclusive first-part X360 non-Kinect titles for YEARS. Because you implied as much.DangerousDave said:
Not only that but you see the only sales drivers of a system that outsold the competition in June being upcoming first-party exclusive titles.
Not a lower price.
Not its existing game library.
Not a new form factor, Kinect or an extensive marketing campaign.
Not the fact that it's the exclusive first-run home of all Call of Duty DLC until like the dawn of time.
But the absence of announced exclusive first-party titles.
Even with a new Halo, Fable, Gears and COD coming over the next 9 months.
Really?
Wow.
quickwhips
Member
DangerousDave said:
Where are you getting these facts from? If this is true then every ps3 owner would be buying a Xbox 360 for all the exclusives they have had in the past because it would add up alot of value. And I know that isn't true. Only people on forums care about exclusives.
DangerousDave said:
The thing is that 99% of the time multi-plat games sell better on 360 and exclusive games on 360 sell better compared to PS3 exclusives. It's very nice PS3 owners are getting Killzone 3, inFamous 2, LBP 2, SOCOM 4 etc but I'm willing to bet nothing that their combined sales will not come close to just Halo: Reach. The same goes for GeOW 3 and then there are Fable 3 and Forza 4 which again they will not outsell, not combined for those two but individually say Killzone 3 will be taken apart by Fable 3.
Kinect could sell gangbusters and then MS have something else selling really well so MS really have shit locked down. 343 studio has been around for at least a year now so their game will be well under production, COD games sell significantly better on 360 etc. Sony has one game which will stand up to the 360 exclusives (even that is WW terms not in NA) and that it is so MS have it good, Sony not so much.
All sales talk BTW not quality of games or whatever.
The Faceless Master
Member
haven't we seen the same thing several years in a row now?DangerousDave said:
"MS has no games next year", followed by MS announcing games the next year.
3rd Birthday was one of Squenix's showcase titles at E3, so its localization is guaranteed.Green Biker Dude said:
Where this situation gets interesting is, of course, Agito's future. It's still completely MIA even on the Japanese side. It's already switched platforms before, and who's to say it couldn't happen again?
Megadragon15
Member
It feels like Groundhog Day.The Faceless Master said:
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
DangerousDave said:
Oh dear... This happens almost every year. Microsoft has nothing on the horizon, folks, start panicking now.
That, of course, is ridiculous. First of all, that post is full of speculation and unfounded presumptions. Who says Gears 3 is the last exclusive game from Epic? Lionhead has been working on at least two simultaneous projects for years now (although Milo & Kate might not appeal to the core market, if it ever comes out, but that's another thing entirely). With their tech in place, Remedy won't need 3-4 years for another game (although it really might not be Microsoft-published). Rare is anything but a "minor" studio, they still have several teams over there. The demise of Ensemble has given birth to 4 or 5 new companies, not all of them are working on that PC game (which may or may not also be on the 360). There are a few other studios within Microsoft possibly working on projects we know nothing about at this moment.
But more importantly, we have no idea what deals with third party studios (or even publishers) Microsoft already has in place for development of their future exclusives. There are still plenty of independent studios left, and Microsoft is known for such partnerships. Just because Crytek's game is the only one they've shown so far doesn't mean it's the only project of its kind being made right now.
However, Microsoft did shift its immediate focus to Kinect titles, there's no doubt about that. That still doesn't mean they've abandoned the core segment entirely, you can definitely expect at least 3-4 core releases a year.
And by the way, yes, there are first party developed and first party published games. It's a distinction worth making, although they both have similar effects in the short term. Then there are several subcategories based on the ownership of IP, the length of contract and some other things, but the bottom line is, first party published games should not be ignored just because they're not developed in-house.
Agito is almost done actually. They've been talking about it every time they mention The 3rd Birthday in Famitsu as well.Ridley327 said:
If it shows up on the 3DS, it would most likely be a port of the PSP game instead of switching platforms altogether.
However, I fully expect it to be the last Final Fantasy game on the PSP. Probably the last major Square Enix game on the system as well.
In terms of exclusive sales, it break down as follows:
1. Microsoft has one big exclusive game that sells insane amounts of copies - Halo. If you want to include third party exclusives, they have Gears which sells a lot but not quite Halo numbers. These titles are surrounded by games that range from doing well (Fable) to doing poorly (Alan Wake).
2. Sony has one big exclusive game that sells insane amounts of copies - Gran Turismo. Sells even more worldwide than Halo. If you want to include third party exclusives, they have Metal Gear Solid 4 which sells a lot but not quire Gran Turismo numbers. These titles are surrounded by games that range from doing well (Uncharted 2) to doing poorly (Lair).
The idea that Microsoft's exclusives sell more in general is a myth, one perpetuated by this forum's focus on North American sales where the 360 has a competitive advantage with the larger install base and where Halo is most popular.
Taking out the outliers in the equation (Halo and Gran Turismo), and you will see that PS3 exclusives compare favorably against 360 exclusives wrt to sales, even in North America alone. And given that Sony has a much larger stable of first party developers, their software output is simply much larger in comparison to Microsoft's.
1. Microsoft has one big exclusive game that sells insane amounts of copies - Halo. If you want to include third party exclusives, they have Gears which sells a lot but not quite Halo numbers. These titles are surrounded by games that range from doing well (Fable) to doing poorly (Alan Wake).
2. Sony has one big exclusive game that sells insane amounts of copies - Gran Turismo. Sells even more worldwide than Halo. If you want to include third party exclusives, they have Metal Gear Solid 4 which sells a lot but not quire Gran Turismo numbers. These titles are surrounded by games that range from doing well (Uncharted 2) to doing poorly (Lair).
The idea that Microsoft's exclusives sell more in general is a myth, one perpetuated by this forum's focus on North American sales where the 360 has a competitive advantage with the larger install base and where Halo is most popular.
Taking out the outliers in the equation (Halo and Gran Turismo), and you will see that PS3 exclusives compare favorably against 360 exclusives wrt to sales, even in North America alone. And given that Sony has a much larger stable of first party developers, their software output is simply much larger in comparison to Microsoft's.
Massa said:
Well you say that mockingly, but is that good enough for Wada? Not to bash the man but he has been going on and on about globlization, and while sure a million copies (I don't think Agito will this since neither Dissidia or Birth By Sleep was able to correct?) might be good in one region that is the only region it will sell while on PSP, at least in large numbers.
I mean there is no way that Agito is going to do Dragon Quest IX numbers, so would wada be happy with a game that was announced with FF XIII, and Vs XIII doing in between 600K and 1000K?
Ridley327 said:
It weird, looking back over the course of the last few years VS XIII has the least information known about it and even though we know things have been tough on Nomura's team (Having to stop the project and help XIII and other issues.) It seems like the most normal game as far as viewing it from the outside even though it certainly isn't the case.
Nirolak said:
I wasn't trying to imply that he was, just that when the next big game from Kingdom Hearts (From the sounds of it we can expect huge things from the Osaka team.) got announced it felt like the signal ending Square making big announcements for their main franchises on the PSP.
Well, here's what Square Enix's major Japanese title line-up for Q4 and Q1 currently looks like this fiscal year versus last fiscal year.Ridley327 said:
Q4 2009:
-Final Fantasy XIII
Q1 2010:
-Dragon Quest VI Remake
-Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep
--------------------------------------------
Q4 2010:
-The 3rd Birthday
Q1 2011:
-Seemingly Final Fantasy Agito XIII
Don't we agree then?TruePrime said:
Me said:
ULTROS!
People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
Personally, I kind of find the Xbox's future... Bleak. But that's just me.
What if, like, Microsoft loses 3rd party support the next generation, what would happen then? Something kinda like that happened to the PS3 launch, but they still managed to survive with a number of first party support.
What if, like, Microsoft loses 3rd party support the next generation, what would happen then? Something kinda like that happened to the PS3 launch, but they still managed to survive with a number of first party support.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Opiate said:
And again... with no GAF search available to me I cannot give you those people so until then they stay a "they". I do not have an argument... I've just been beaten down repeatedly to the point where I gave up talking about it. I will though reference you as someone who agrees with me in that only a true first party is a game that is only made by a developer that is owned by the console maker.
ULTROS! said:
Did Sony lose 3rd party support or did they lose 3rd party exclusive support? And Sony's first party output for the first year wasn't that great either. I don't think you have to worry about either MS or Sony next gen. They will be just fine. Both will start off on equal footing when the next gen rolls around.
Nirolak said:
We very much agree, when I qouted you the first time it wasn't meant to contest your thoughts on the manner at all.
It was more that I was agreeing with you and saying that I did so because of how things went down and the vibe that came out both during the Nintendo press confrrence and the interviews with Nomura after the fact.
Maybe it's just me but it seems painfully obvious that Microsoft is focusing heavily on XBLA to get those exclusives that everybody seems to ignore because they aren't retail releases. Microsoft is publishing plenty of exclusives on XBLA in the coming months like Limbo, Hydrophobia, Hydro Thunder Hurricane, Monday Night Combat, etc. I guess people only want to focus on the retail stuff to make it seem like its doom and gloom. I'd take a Limbo anyday over most retail games.daycru said:
I believe that saying belongs in the category of "Year of the PS3" and "Nintendo makes kiddie/casual games". You hear it every year, and every year it seems to turn out wrong.The Faceless Master said:
I did get a bit of a kick out of it last year with L4D2. Which turned out, while being just a console exclusive, to crush nearly everything released and one of the two major games to go toe to toe with MW2's hype machine.
DangerousDave
Member
quickwhips said:
Well, I've done it.
Well, if there is near double the userbase in 360 than in PS3, in US, obviously games sell better on 360.