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[Ajax35]

Okay, I'll pick this out of all the replies.

I don't have a narrative. I just wanted to get the big lump of initial sales out of the way and see how they aligned after release hype.

That doesn't make any sense. This gen happened to feature really large number of early adopters, so there was a big initial spike of sales. Previous gens happened to have those same sales spread out over more months.

Ignoring the first several months of PS4/XB1 sales implicitly assumes that those early adopters were never going to but a current-gen console at all. In a more accurate counter-factual, you'd need to to take those early sales and distribute them over the first few months of whenever you choose to start your imaginary time series.

 

[Danthrax]

I think that DKCRTF's figures are doable.

That's a damn low bar

 

[Daemul]

It's not actually outselling it overall though. The LTDs imply that people who bought an Xbox One were the same people who ran out and bought Watch Dogs immediately upon release, whereas there are more people on Xbox 360 who show up and buy it late, even if they're a smaller audience overall.

Watch Dogs [PS4] 793K [XB1] 500K [360] 326k [PS3] 255k

Given the new consoles just came out, that they would primarily stock immediate buyers isn't too surprising.

I don't know why, but those Watch Dog numbers seem really low to me. Then again, the further this generation goes on, the less the attach rates will become, so I guess it makes sense.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Haven't been following the thread, what were the sales for xb1 and ps4 last month? How many units did each move?

PS4 - 269K

X1 - 197K

 

[Game4life]

Good to see all consoles doing well!

 

[ethomaz]

Corrected estimate using Psycho_Mantis maths.

PS4 LTD

US: 3573k
RotW : 4347k
JP : 630k

Total : 8550k

 

[FDC1]

Oh, I completely agree. I was just offering an explanation for where his error came from, not trying to suggest no error was made.

As stated, with corrected math the PS4 LTD using his method would be 8.6M. Assuming a heavier PAL tilt (which is a reasonable assumption), the total should be ~9M now.

NPS numbers are until June 5th (or 6th). Add 2 weeks of sales (so around 100k) for US and add proportionally for rest of the world (around 150k?), and we should be very close of 9M today

 

[TheRagnCajun]

MS did better than yesterday's announcement led me to believe, but still a little ho-hum. 30.4k per week over May and June combined....compared to 28.8k per week for April. That's not exactly a huge consumer response. Even if you ignore the fact that MS sacrificed May sales (sku announcement) to get a better June number, at 39.4k per week for June they are still behind the competition.

I don't know what else MS can do honestly. They can still have success on their own terms, but I don't see them ever getting ahead of Sony in global LTD. The console war is more or less over for this gen.

 

[Opiate]

Wii U numbers are good, but the best numbers of the month are the notification of how Lightning Returns failed and FFX HD outsold it greatly.

Hilarious. I cannot believe how badly Square has gone off track. That obsession with the Lightning character is ludicrous and they deserve the bad sales.

Now, give me a FF12 HD remake.

I completely understand where they were coming from, though.

Part of the great expense of FF games is having to come up with entirely new worlds and new characters and new storylines every single time. If they could create recurring characters and worlds for FF games they could iterate on long term, it would save them a lot of money.

It just didn't work out, because the characters they chose to iterate on were boring and bad. I'm not saying it was a profitable choice, I'm just saying I understand what their goal was: game development costs are skyrocketing, and Square was looking for ways to save money without reducing graphical fidelity.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

 

[SDCowboy]

PS4 - 269K

X1 - 197K

Those numbers are amazing. Even the WiiU's.

 

[Hoo-doo]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

This is US only data. Why wouldn't Dark Souls 2 sell more on Xbox 360 when it has millions more consoles in people's homes compared to PS3?

Oh, and a PS4 has no games meme? Seriously? Neither of your points make any sense.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

That's a damn low bar

It's Wii U we are talking about. One month of good sales barely changes the overall picture. Do we have reasons to be more optimistic?

 

[SDCowboy]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

Nevermind.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

For US where there is double of 360s than PS3's it should be outselling its counterpart.

For the rest of the world i expect DS2 to be selling better on PS3.

 

[Badlucktroll]

I am afraid the massive success of the Ps4 will lead to an arrogant late Ps2 era-esque Sony.

 

[Leatherface]

I STILL play the shit out of Mario Kart. I love that game like nobodies business. Currently trying to open all the gold kart parts and having a blast!

 

[Cornbread78]

So, how much ps4, xbox one and wii u sold this year?

Sorry, I found the m/m graph I was looking for earlier from the thread last night:

Xbox One needs to sell 165k in July to stay ahead of the PS2.
PS4 needs to sell 50k in July to stay ahead of the Wii.

 

[Game4life]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

Did Dark Souls not sell better on 360 as well in America? I think worldwide Dark Souls 1 and 2 sells much better on ps3. I may be mistaken though. I think if PS4 can manage this level of sales till 2014 it is going to bode well for them because 2015 looks beastly in terms of their lineup. Order 1886, Blood Borne, Uncharted 4, GG new IP etc. in addition to all the awesome multiplats like Batman AK. 2015 will be a great year for console gaming.

 

[Nirolak]

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

Dark Souls 1 also sold 1.4 million copies on PC: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/steam-gauge-addressing-your-questions-and-concerns/2/

That said, given the general lack of team overlap, I'm pretty sure they're actually making Dark Souls 3 at the same time and getting Sony to bankroll their new IP.

 

[FDC1]

This is US only data. Why wouldn't Dark Souls 2 sell more on Xbox 360 when it has millions more consoles in people's homes compared to PS3?

Oh, and a PS4 has no games meme? Seriously? Neither of your points make any sense.

Because Demon's Souls, "Souls" games are still considered by some as a "Playstation IP". It's the same logic than for MGS or FF games by exemple, even if they're multiplatform these days, they generally sell better on PS consoles (proportionally to the userbases).

 

[Sammy Samusu]

This is US only data. Why wouldn't Dark Souls 2 sell more on Xbox 360 when it has millions more consoles in people's homes compared to PS3?

Oh, and a PS4 has no games meme? Seriously? Neither of your points make any sense.

PS3 install base is big enough to support all games, it stopped being a problem a long time ago. And a lot of Japanese third-party games sell more on PS3.

 

[Tigress]

Well everything I tried to predict (Vita, PS4, and xbox one) all were higher than I predicted (I'm very happy Vita was, despite Sony not stocking stores with them).

 

[allan-bh]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

It's because PS4 had an amazing launch (Bigger supply favored it)


PS4 jan-jun 2014= 1.58m

Wii jan-jun 2007= 2.11m (Still supply constrained)


Wii had an incredible run, PS4 is more front loaded (at least for now).

 

[theDeeDubs]

I'm surprised at two things:


2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I've been playing both versions lately and I get summoned way more often on the 360. So that surprised me too but I get makes sense now.

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

Wii U numbers are good, but the best numbers of the month are the notification of how Lightning Returns failed and FFX HD outsold it greatly.

Hilarious. I cannot believe how badly Square has gone off track. That obsession with the Lightning character is ludicrous and they deserve the bad sales.

Now, give me a FF12 HD remake.

Yup. They made two sequels no one asked for. "Lightning Returns"...horray?

I am afraid the massive success of the Ps4 will lead to an arrogant late Ps2 era-esque Sony.

Every successful company gets arrogant, but Sony's arrogance isn't due for another four years.

 

[Daemul]

I am afraid the massive success of the Ps4 will lead to an arrogant late Ps2 era-esque Sony.

Nah, not until PS6.

 

[Hoo-doo]

Because Demon's Souls, Souls game are still considered by some as a "Playstation IP". It's the same logic than for MGS or FF games by exemple, even if they're multiplatform this days, they generally sell better on PS consoles.

Dark Souls came out on both. Dark Souls two came out on both. It does sell better on PS consoles.

In a market where one console has nearly double the amount of units in people's homes, then what did you expect to happen though? If the PS3 had dominated in sales in the US the numbers would have been skewed the other way.

 

[Danthrax]

It's Wii U we are talking about. One month of good sales barely changes the overall picture. Do we have reasons to be more optimistic?

No, we don't. I'm just saying that it shouldn't be hard for Bayonetta 2 to exceed 285k — The Freaking Conduit sold more than that in its first three months (300k), after all. DKC:TF is bomba.

 

[FDC1]

Dark Souls came out on both. Dark Souls two came out on both. It does sell better on PS consoles.

In a market where one console has nearly double the amount of units in people's homes, then what did you expect to happen though? If the PS3 had dominated in sales in the US the numbers would have been skewed the other way.

Not sure what you're expecting as an answer, we're pretty much saying the same thing lol

 

[Hoo-doo]

Not sure what you're expecting as an answer, we're pretty much saying the same thing lol

My point was merely against the poster going "Xbox owners sure love dem souls games!"

If you compare units of DS2 sold with the amount of consoles in the market it's quite clear that the franchise does sell better on Playstation platforms. Hence why it financially makes more sense that Bloodborne is on next-gen Playstation platforms instead of the other way around. (aside from Sony actually, you know, owning the IP.)

 

[KillerMan91]

It's because PS4 had an amazing launch (Bigger supply favored it)


PS4 jan-jun 2014= 1.58m

Wii jan-jun 2007= 2.11m (Still supply constrained)


Wii had an incredible run, PS4 is more front loaded (at least for now).

Yeah it's going to fall behind Wiis pace this year. I still believe though that it will keep up with PS2 though (for this year at least). This summer has been really dry release wise and PS4 is still putting solid numbers. Can't wait to see numbers when it actually starts to get big games (September with Destiny and then those insane October and November lineups). If PS4 (and Xbone) are still putting somewhat subpar numbers in october I will join the ''console gaming is doomed, all hail mobile ''crowd.

 

[SDCowboy]

Shouldn't the OP be updated with the sales numbers?

 

[Salex_]

I am afraid the massive success of the Ps4 will lead to an arrogant late Ps2 era-esque Sony.

I'm really tired of seeing this. I don't think people really know what arrogant is when it comes to consumer products.

Having the cheapest blu-ray player on the market, free online, built in wifi when the competitor charged $100 bucks for an add-on, backwards compatibility with the PS1/PS2, DTS, the ability to change your HDD while losing ~$200 on every console sold isn't arrogant.

If they used the same "arrogant" approach when creating the PS4 using a value proposal similar to the launch PS3 we would have gotten backwards compatibility and a high end GPU. The price might have been 500-600, but you would be able to clearly see that you were getting more than your moneys worth.

As a consumer, arrogance should relate to when company charges a high price with a low value proposal because they think people are going to buy it anyways. I don't see why anyone would put silly quotes over the value of the hardware.

You don't have to worry about that "arrogance" anymore though. They learned that people stop caring about the value proposal when a console goes above $400. That combined with Sony not being able to that a big risk like the PS3 means we won't see another console like that again. Cheap and profitable within the first year is what we'll see for the remaining console generations from Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

EDIT: A better word is to use would probably be "foolish" or "naive" to think that people wanted to spent $600 on a console.

 

[FDC1]

Shouldn't the OP be updated with the sales numbers?

OP is only updated when numbers come from an official source, it's not the case there.

 

[NeonZ]

I completely understand where they were coming from, though.

Part of the great expense of FF games is having to come up with entirely new worlds and new characters and new storylines every single time. If they could create recurring characters and worlds for FF games they could iterate on long term, it would save them a lot of money.

It just didn't work out, because the characters they chose to iterate on were boring and bad. I'm not saying it was a profitable choice, I'm just saying I understand what their goal was: game development costs are skyrocketing, and Square was looking for ways to save money without reducing graphical fidelity.

They could reuse assets without focusing exclusively on the same cast and story though. Making new protagonists and npcs, while reusing monsters, generic npcs and other assets, while focusing in a completely new story should be perfectly possible. There was no need for a Lightning Trilogy after FFXIII's initial reception, just reuse of FFXIII's assets. The story and focus they went with was completely unnecessary.

 

[Opiate]

Yeah it's going to fall behind Wiis pace this year. I still believe though that it will keep up with PS2 though (for this year at least). This summer has been really dry release wise and PS4 is still putting solid numbers. Can't wait to see numbers when it actually starts to get big games (September with Destiny and then those insane October and November lineups). If PS4 (and Xbone) are still putting somewhat subpar numbers in october I will join the ''console gaming is doomed, all hail mobile ''crowd.

The PS4 should definitely have a strong fall, but my fear is that this summer is not a fluke. That is, over the course of their lives, I expect there to be more dry spells for the PS4/Xbone than there were for PS3/360 and certainly than there were for PS2/Xbox because there are far fewer games being released overall. Having 2x/3x/4x as many games released for PS2 meant that there were a lot fewer "dry spells" over the course of the system's lifespan.

This could lead to lower sales for the PS4 overall, or it could lead to a much spikier sales pattern, where it stops selling for months then sees a big surge when the next big AAA thing releases.

 

[FDC1]

Yeah it's going to fall behind Wiis pace this year. I still believe though that it will keep up with PS2 though (for this year at least). This summer has been really dry release wise and PS4 is still putting solid numbers. Can't wait to see numbers when it actually starts to get big games (September with Destiny and then those insane October and November lineups). If PS4 (and Xbone) are still putting somewhat subpar numbers in october I will join the ''console gaming is doomed, all hail mobile ''crowd.

I think PS4 will stay behind Wii for a long period but will finally catch it in the long term because its decline will be less brutal.

 

[Opiate]

They could reuse assets without focusing exclusively on the same cast and story though. Making new protagonists and npcs, while reusing monsters, generic npcs and other assets, while focusing in a completely new story should be perfectly possible. There was no need for a Lightning Trilogy after FFXIII's initial reception.

I'm sure they were aware of FFXIII's reception generally, but had already committed to an extended development cycle for the FFXIII brand. I'm not sure pushing forward anyway was the right idea, but it wasn't necessarily the wrong one, either.

As a straightforward example to explain what I mean, consider a game which is 80% complete but which is getting strong negative responses from test audiences. In some cases, such games are canceled; there is still a lot of extra expense between then and getting that last 20% done along with manufacturing, distribution and advertising. But in other cases, publishers decide that the best path is to simply publish the game anyway and hope things work out better than expected, and thus help recoup some of the costs involved.

Again, I'm not saying SE's choice was the right one, I'm just trying to explain how they may have reached the conclusions they did, other than just assuming they're-all-stupid-dumb-dumb-heads-who-don't-know-what-they're-doing.

 

[Lemondish]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

1. Not this shit again...

2. It didn't sell that much more given the massive gap between install bases. Seems Sony fans are much more dedicated to their Souls than Xbox ones are.

 

[KillerMan91]

The PS4 should definitely have a strong fall, but my fear is that this summer is not a fluke. That is, I expect there to be more dry spells for the PS4/Xbone than there was for PS3/360 and certainly for PS2/Xbox because there are far fewer games being released overall. Having 2x/3x/4x as many games released for PS2 meant that there were a lot fewer "dry spells" over the course of the system's lifespan.

This could lead to lower sales for the PS4 overall, or it could lead to a much spikier sales pattern, where it stops selling for months then sees a big surge when the next big AAA thing releases.

Well it would actually help if other publishers had the foresight of Ubisoft. I think it was genious from Ubi to move Watch_Dogs from holiday season to spring when there is barely any competition and they can flood the tv with ads. I still really don't know why every publisher nowadays try to flood the market during holiday season or just before end of their financial year in march. There is other months too you know and people want to game all around the year. Also of course yeah you are right that we are going to see probably more ''dry seasons'' also because of the rising costs and titles taking more time but this summer really was especially slow. Kinda like 2006 summer for X360. Developers still in transition phase.

 

[Opiate]

Well it would actually help if other publishers had the foresight of Ubisoft. I think it was genious from Ubi to move Watch_Dogs from holiday season to spring when there is barely any competition and they can flood the tv with ads. I still really don't know why every publisher nowadays try to flood the market during holiday season or just before end of their financial year in march. There is other months too you know and people want to game all around the year. Also of course yeah you are right that we are going to see probably more ''dry seasons'' also because of the rising costs and titles taking more time but this summer really was especially slow. Kinda like 2006 summer for X360. Developers still in transition phase.

Yes, I doubt we'll see a dry spell as bad as this one in the near future. Post-launch dry spells are usually the worst dry spells a platform sees until end of life.

 

[benny_a]

All this talk about dry spells makes me wish I had those in Divinity!

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Well it would actually help if other publishers had the foresight of Ubisoft. I think it was genious from Ubi to move Watch_Dogs from holiday season to spring when there is barely any competition and they can flood the tv with ads. I still really don't know why every publisher nowadays try to flood the market during holiday season or just before end of their financial year in march. There is other months too you know and people want to game all around the year. Also of course yeah you are right that we are going to see probably more ''dry seasons'' also because of the rising costs and titles taking more time but this summer really was especially slow. Kinda like 2006 summer for X360. Developers still in transition phase.

I imagine if your a huge AAA production like Watchdogs you can afford to launch any time of the year. I guess for a lot of smaller scale games the time of year you launch is imperative to the sales you get. A lot more people buy games through the holidays and even if you don't end up in the top and 150-200k is your holiday sales, that may still be much more than what you would get at other times of the year regardless. I think stuff like Mario Kart and Watchdogs are pretty well exempt from this though. So for example, I think Assassin's Creed or CoD could release whenever and get the same level of sales.

 

[Aquamarine]

OP is only updated when numbers come from an official source, it's not the case there.

Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't that website be counted as an official source?

I understand not wanting to draw attention to it, but it seems to be run by a company that would have full access to NPD information.

I don't see the difference between it and IGN or CNET or whoever else has given us tidbits of NPD data in the past.

 

[Anth0ny]

No, we don't. I'm just saying that it shouldn't be hard for Bayonetta 2 to exceed 285k — The Freaking Conduit sold more than that in its first three months (300k), after all. DKC:TF is bomba.

whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

Bayo 2 won't even do half of what Donkey Kong did. I'm expecting less than 100k.

Well it would actually help if other publishers had the foresight of Ubisoft. I think it was genious from Ubi to move Watch_Dogs from holiday season to spring when there is barely any competition and they can flood the tv with ads. I still really don't know why every publisher nowadays try to flood the market during holiday season or just before end of their financial year in march. There is other months too you know and people want to game all around the year. Also of course yeah you are right that we are going to see probably more ''dry seasons'' also because of the rising costs and titles taking more time but this summer really was especially slow. Kinda like 2006 summer for X360. Developers still in transition phase.

I think eventually enough games will bomb releasing in October and November alongside the big dogs (anything that is not COD/Battlefield/Ass Creed/Mario/Smash/Pokemon) and enough games will do surprisingly well during random months of the year (Like Mario Kart and Watch Dogs in May and June) that publishers will be forced to take note of this a release a fucking game in July or August.

 

[Scully Scully Scoo]

its going to take a long time for ms to change the negative perfection of x1, ps4 just has the mindshare right now

 

[KillerMan91]

I imagine if your a huge AAA production like Watchdogs you can afford to launch any time of the year. I guess for a lot of smaller scale games the time of year you launch is imperative to the sales you get. A lot more people buy games through the holidays and even if you don't end up in the top and 150-200k is your holiday sales, that may still be much more than what you would get at other times of the year regardless. I think stuff like Mario Kart and Watchdogs are pretty well exempt from this though. So for example, I think Assassin's Creed or CoD could release whenever and get the same level of sales.

Well i guess that is the idea behind holiday flood but I am not sure it works. Something like Lords of the Fallen is going to get buried in that insane october release schedule. Had it released during this very dry summer for example (and gotten decent reviews) I think it would have had much better chances to get some attention from the press and gamers and therefore sell decent numbers especially as early buyers of consoles tend to buy a lot of games

I think eventually enough games will bomb releasing in October and November alongside the big dogs (anything that is not COD/Battlefield/Ass Creed/Mario/Smash/Pokemon) and enough games will do surprisingly well during random months of the year (Like Mario Kart and Watch Dogs in May and June) that publishers will be forced to take note of this a release a fucking game in July or August.

Let's really hope so. Well at least Ubi is probably going to release more games outside of holiday season.

 

[FDC1]

Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't that website be counted as an official source?

I understand not wanting to draw attention to it, but it seems to be run by a company that would have full access to NPD information.

I don't see the difference between it and IGN or CNET or whoever else has given us tidbits of NPD data in the past.

I don't even know which site you're talking about, all the references were deleted during my sleep (MP please?). I'll let mods explain themselves about official rules for NPD threads ;-)

 

[sixteen-bit]

Mario Kart doing well for itself