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[crinale]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games! Imagine how much it's going to sell once that changes, I'm not ready. An easy and safe win for Sony thanks to stupid choices (yet creative and daring) made by Nintendo and Microsoft.

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

Well ppl at GAF say it has no games but PS4's WatchDogs did sell better than MK8, so if you say that WiiU also has no games (which is plain bogus statement you see).
The many ppl here misunderstood is exclusive isn't that important to drive hardware sales, as long as the platform has ample supply of multiplats.

 

[Plinko]

I completely understand where they were coming from, though.

Part of the great expense of FF games is having to come up with entirely new worlds and new characters and new storylines every single time. If they could create recurring characters and worlds for FF games they could iterate on long term, it would save them a lot of money.

It just didn't work out, because the characters they chose to iterate on were boring and bad. I'm not saying it was a profitable choice, I'm just saying I understand what their goal was: game development costs are skyrocketing, and Square was looking for ways to save money without reducing graphical fidelity.

I agree--I just can think of at least 20 other, more popular FF characters from the past they could have built off of and expanded their story. They chose the complete wrong character.

 

[Nirolak]

Just out of curiosity, why wouldn't that website be counted as an official source?

I understand not wanting to draw attention to it, but it seems to be run by a company that would have full access to NPD information.

I don't see the difference between it and IGN or CNET or whoever else has given us tidbits of NPD data in the past.

If people want me to update with the gamecrate info, I can.

 

[Bundy]

I'm surprised at two things:

1. PS4 outselling Wii

I knew PS4 was selling well but not this well, wow. And it doesn't even have games!

...... -_-

 

[Bundy]

If PS4 (and Xbone) are still putting somewhat subpar numbers in october I will join the ''console gaming is doomed, all hail mobile ''crowd.

I haven't seen any "subpar" PS4 numbers" yet.

 

[Aquamarine]

If people want me to update with the gamecrate info, I can.

Well I mean, I don't see why not for the hardware numbers. It's already spread all over the Internet.

But if you're going to do it, I'd suggest you do it as soon as possible because I don't know how much longer that article is going to stay up.

 

[Taurus]

I haven't seen any "subpar" PS4 numbers" yet.

Check Japan. Also, these numbers are not that great so far overall.

 

[Nirolak]

Well I mean, I don't see why not for the hardware numbers. It's already spread all over the Internet.

But if you're going to do it, I'd suggest you do it as soon as possible because I don't know how much longer that article is going to stay up.

Fair enough.

 

[Nirolak]

And done.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Bayonetta 2 is the kind of game that gets some one to buy a wiiu who probably buys a lot of game software.

So while it might sell 150k units, each of those buyers is probably going to buy at least 4 other titles during the life of the wiiu.

So while bayonetta itself doesn't move a ton, there is a greater long term effect of it being an exclusive.

 

[Opiate]

I haven't seen any "subpar" PS4 numbers" yet.

This really depends on your frame of reference. Independent of any other considerations -- that is, outside of context -- the PS4 is doing very well for itself, even in the last 4-5 months.

It only seems "subpar" if your frame of reference is this:

1) The PS4 is the leading console of its generation
2) You don't want the console industry to be a shrinking market

If you assume those two things, then yes, the PS4 has been doing less well than one would want in that specific context. If you want a different example, the 3DS is doing fine for itself without anything else considered -- the problem is that it represents a significant decrease in sales gen-over-gen, and as the leading handheld of its generation its sales are significantly subpar.

The PS4 isn't nearly as far along the path as the 3DS is, of course. Nor is the disparity as severe. It's just an example to show how sales which are fine in context-independent discussion may not be so fine once context is inserted back in.

 

[Davey Cakes]

Bayonetta 2 is the kind of game that gets some one to buy a wiiu who probably buys a lot of game software.

So while it might sell 150k units, each of those buyers is probably going to buy at least 4 other titles during the life of the wiiu.

So while bayonetta itself doesn't move a ton, there is a greater long term effect of it being an exclusive.

I really, REALLY hope so.

It would be so awesome if Wii U's strong exclusives could continue to get people over the fence and into the Wii U ecosystem, not just for one game but several.

The more "tipping point" games the better and a niche title like Bayonetta actually serving that purpose would be wonderful (101...lol).

 

[Aquamarine]

And done.

Awesome.

Trying to hide it here like that will somehow prevent NPD from noticing it is useless. The NPD Ninjas are much more perceptive than that. Since the Gamecrate article has already spread throughout the Internet, I guarantee 100% that NPD is already fully aware of the article's existence.

Now if everyone decided to keep it a rarely-mentioned, hushed secret in the first place, that's one thing. But it's too widely disseminated for that to happen. That's the problem with NeoGAF...if something gets revealed here, it can start a chain reaction.

 

[Punkster_NY]

What?!

That brings the PlayStation 4 to a total 3.6 million units sold since the console’s launch in November link

 

[FDC1]

What?!


link

in US

 

[Aquamarine]

What?!


link

Yep.

2000K Holiday + 910K January-March + 200K April + 197K May + 269K June = 3.577 million = 3.6 million

 

[Bundy]

This really depends on your frame of reference. Independent of any other considerations -- that is, outside of context -- the PS4 is doing very well for itself, even in the last 4-5 months.

It only seems "subpar" if your frame of reference is this:

1) The PS4 is the leading console of its generation
2) You don't want the console industry to be a shrinking market

If you assume those two things, then yes, the PS4 has been doing less well than one would want in that specific context. If you want a different example, the 3DS is doing fine for itself without anything else considered -- the problem is that it represents a significant decrease in sales gen-over-gen, and as the leading handheld of its generation its sales are significantly subpar.

The PS4 isn't nearly as far along the path as the 3DS is, of course. Nor is the disparity as severe. It's just an example to show how sales which are fine in context-independent discussion may not be so fine once context is inserted back in.

I actually am comparing them to the numbers in the past.
So I understand if you say some months are average, compared to maybe the PS2 or Wii (in the same months).
But "subpar"? Nah! That's a exaggeration.

Check Japan. Also, these numbers are not that great so far overall.

Compared to the PS2, Wii in the same months? Maybe not close.
"Subpar"? Nope

 

[benny_a]

What's the argument that the last generation didn't start with the 360 launch?

 

[Vashetti]

Yep.

2000K Holiday + 910K January-March + 200K April + 197K May + 269K June = 3.577 million = 3.6 million

Can anyone estimate WW sales now?

 

[RyanPierre]

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

Obviously we don't know the details of their partnership for Bloodborne, but it's not as clear cut as "From is missing out on money by not making it for more platforms." We don't know what From would have actually gotten from a third-party publishing deal for a multiplatform title. I don't know if we have any insight on early Bloodborne development, but it's possible there was a time they were shopping it around like many devs do and Sony Japan had the most attractive offer.

Anyway, my point is that if any party is leaving substantial money on the table by not going multiplatform, it's going to be the publisher - which of course first-party publishers are more than okay with.

 

[BlackJace]

Most comprehensive NPD month in a while? Seriously, this is like the mother lode.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Corrected estimate using Psycho_Mantis maths.

So 10 Mil in 2 months?

What is xb1 at?

 

[Blanquito]

I should have posted the following in this thread first. I'll just quote what I said in the prediction thread. Though I used SwiftDeath's summary post for my data, not the GameCrate data... maybe if I get bored I'll add extra tidbits from GameCrate.

The following data is for informational purposes only, and shouldn't be completely relied upon to make future predictions. However, it is interesting to look at, especially since Amazon rankings are the only thing we normal folk have access to (besides leaks -- thanks leakers!).

Console ~ Real June #s -- Amazon Rank for June
PS4 ~ 269k -- 8
XB1 ~ 197k -- 49 & 50*
3DS ~ 152k -- 74
Wii U ~ 140k -- 59
360 ~ 62k -- 83
PS3 ~ 42k -- NA
Wii ~ 19k -- NA
PSV ~ 15k -- NA

*49=Kinectless, 50=TitanFall. Combined would probably give them a much higher rating.

Conclusion: fairly accurate on where hardware is going to end up, except for 3DS. I guess people prefer buying the 3DS in store?

Now hardware combined with notable software (I had to leave out MK because I [edit] couldn't [/edit] find just a retail # for them, only digital + retail. The numbers below are retail only numbers, not digital numbers.)

PS4 ~ 269k -- 8
DestinyPS4 ~ ?? -- 10
MCC ~ ?? -- 14
TLoU:R ~ ?? --- 15
Tomodachi ~ 138K --- 16
WDPS4 ~ 210K --- 17
MinecraftPS3 ~ 144K --- 21
WhitePS4+D ~ ?? -- 23
Minecraft360 ~ 151K -- 26
WDPS3 ~ 117K --- 57
Wii U ~ 140k -- 59
WD360 ~ 154K --- 65
WDXBO ~ 137K --- 75
360 ~ 62k -- 83

Conclusions: tons more people bought Tomodachi from Amazon than what appears to be normal for other games/hardware. Same for Minecraft and WD PS3. PS3 owners buy games in higher proportions on Amazon as compared to other places?

Other than that, perhaps these are some (very broad) ballpark figures for preorders and such?

 

[FDC1]

Can anyone estimate WW sales now?

9M is a credible estimation in my opinion

 

[Guevara]

Most comprehensive NPD month in a while? Seriously, this is like the mother lode.

I predict we'll be using as the basis for calculations for a long long time.

 

[Hindl]

Well ppl at GAF say it has no games but PS4's WatchDogs did sell better than MK8, so if you say that WiiU also has no games (which is plain bogus statement you see).
The many ppl here misunderstood is exclusive isn't that important to drive hardware sales, as long as the platform has ample supply of multiplats.

I think you're confusing overall SKU with individual. Watch_Dogs destroyed everything for the top spot, but Mario Kart 8 was the top selling single SKU in June, outselling Watch_Dogs PS4 in second place

 

[Amentallica]

Can someone tell me point me to the first year LTD for Wii U, XB1, and PS4? I am trying the search function but it isn't working. I would appreciate a monthly break down of how many each console sold since November of their FIRST YEARS (emphasized because I know the Wii U released earlier (*but I forget if it was in November*)).

 

[BlackJace]

I predict we'll be using as the basis for calculations for a long long time.

Gamecrate, our hidden hero. (Shit's gonna get taken down tho lol)

 

[gutterboy44]

Every time that I expect it to be the month where XB1 finally starts to close the gap even a little, PS4 still pulls out a win. I want to say I am surprised, but when you look at the state of the XB1 and how essentially everything it stood for a year ago has been reneged on, it is probably going to take more time for consumers to warm back up to it.

I definitely think XB1 and PS4 will be trading off the number 1 slot at some point down the road, it is just a question of how far down, and how big of a gap will Sony have at that point?

Edit: Oh, and poor Vita. Dear god.

 

[FDC1]

I think you're confusing overall SKU with individual. Watch_Dogs destroyed everything for the top spot, but Mario Kart 8 was the top selling single SKU in June, outselling Watch_Dogs PS4 in second place

I think he means LTD, PS4 WD did a lot better than MK in May

 

[kingkaiser]

What's the argument that the last generation didn't start with the 360 launch?

Because a generation does not start until good guy™ Sony says so, obviously.

 

[Badlucktroll]

I am happy for Sony, and love my Ps4, but this is getting out of hand. Why is it so successful? Anyone care to speculate?

 

[QuantumBro]

How did we get those numbers? Someone not giving a fuck over at gamescrate?

 

[Koppai]

whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

Bayo 2 won't even do half of what Donkey Kong did. I'm expecting less than 100k.

I think if Nintendo can sell something niche like Tomodachi Life, they can sell Bayonetta 2. Let's hope they have an advertising campaign in place. Wonderful 101 was sadly ignored

 

[icespide]

I am happy for Sony, and love my Ps4, but this is getting out of hand. Why is it so successful? Anyone care to speculate?

itsalmosttoogood.jpg

 

[BigDug13]

The Wii created a market that didn't exist before and that none of the big three are able to pull in this gen. So anyone scrutinizing the numbers here every month hoping the console business isn't going to suffer a contraction, just start your acceptance stage now because that Wii market is gone and was an anomaly to begin with.

 

[Guevara]

What I like about the "PS4 has not games" thing, is you can tell some people actually believe it.

It's hilarious thinking of people just steaming about the PS4's success. "How can it sell?! It. has. no. games!".

 

[bigpumbaa]

The console infighting interests me much less than the severity of the contraction of the market (or lack thereof).

I think people forget that MAYBE last generation was just an aberration with the Wii/DS hitting at the right place at the right time.

Does anyone have any data about the launch alignment of the last three generations of hardware (back to Xbox, PS2, GCN, and GBA?).

Seeing if we've simply returned to pre-last gen numbers or if we're worse off then them would show the health of our little hobby here - much more so than "return of the king" style stuff that only compares internally.

 

[Salex_]

Because a generation does not start until good guy™ Sony says so, obviously.

What are you talking about? The Wii was the start of the last generation. I haven't seen anyone say or imply that the launch of the PS3 was the start of the generation.

You seem hurt by something. Tell us how you really feel.

 

[theprodigy]

I think if Nintendo can sell something niche like Tomodachi Life, they can sell Bayonetta 2. Let's hope they have an advertising campaign in place. Wonderful 101 was sadly ignored

3DS has the install base to sell to, also Tomodachi in particular was positioned as a key title to begin with while Bayonetta 2.....is not

 

[Instro]

I actually am comparing them to the numbers in the past.
So I understand if you say some months are average, compared to maybe the PS2 or Wii (in the same months).
But "subpar"? Nah! That's a exaggeration.


Compared to the PS2, Wii in the same months? Maybe not close.
"Subpar"? Nope

In the context that the casual market that bought the PS2, the Wii, and last gen consoles in general has completely left for phones, rather than jumping whole hog on the PS4, then yes its a bit subpar. I.E. the market is shrinking, just not to the extent of dedicated handhelds.

Also I'm not sure what you are talking about but the PS4 is selling terribly in Japan. Like worse than the PS3 and currently below the WiiU. Its incredibly bad.

 

[mrklaw]

In the context that the casual market that bought the PS2, the Wii, and last gen consoles in general has completely left for phones, rather than jumping whole hog on the PS4, then yes its a bit subpar. I.E. the market is shrinking, just not to the extent of dedicated handhelds.

Also I'm not sure what you are talking about but the PS4 is selling terribly in Japan. Like worse than the PS3 and currently below the WiiU. Its incredibly bad.

but that is assuming that 'par' is the PS2 and Wii - which is like saying 'par' is what Tiger Woods shoots. The actual par should take a balanced measure across multiple consoles, not just the best selling.

 

[Opiate]

The Wii created a market that didn't exist before and that none of the big three are able to pull in this gen. So anyone scrutinizing the numbers here every month hoping the console business isn't going to suffer a contraction, just start your acceptance stage now because that Wii market is gone and was an anomaly to begin with.

In what way was it an "anomaly to begin with?" Can you explain why you keep using that specific word/phrase?

 

[GalacticaN7]

Looking at the Gamecrate #'s, it's just crazy. Considering how well MS was able to hold down the U.S. with the 360......seeing PS4 with a lead of 700k consoles in a 7 month period where the competition needed to retain control in that region, it's just still shocking to me.

And to think, it all started by someone saying "why would I want to live there."

 

[Kintaro]

Oooo, my goodness. Mario fkn Kart almost double PS4 Watch Dogs.

 

[BigDug13]

In what way was it an "anomaly to begin with?" Can you explain why you keep using that specific word/phrase?

Because a crowd that had never purchased a game console before purchased a specific one and will never purchase a console again. After 7 generations spanning 30 years, having only 1 generation with this extra crowd buying a waggle console, then not having that crowd buy consoles after that 1 generation, I call the total console sales from that one generation an "anomaly" when we are discussing the fact that last gen grew the industry and that we should expect similar console sales this gen.

The fact is that it was a temporary growth and over the course of 30 years of tracking console sales, that extra market that existed for a few years in the course of 30 years, I consider that an anomaly since it's not sustainable market.

That is why I, personally, use that particular word in console sales threads.

 

[Sgt.Pepper]

The Wii created a market that didn't exist before and that none of the big three are able to pull in this gen. So anyone scrutinizing the numbers here every month hoping the console business isn't going to suffer a contraction, just start your acceptance stage now because that Wii market is gone and was an anomaly to begin with.

I believe the Wii started the interest, then it moved to Mobile/Web games. Just my 2 cents.

 

[pvpness]

Lol. Tomodachi Life!

 

[BrokenIcarus]

Can anyone estimate WW sales now?

I can try,
If we have 2271k for the US from November to January, and 5.3 million as of february 4th, that gives us a split of about 42% of PS4s sold in the US
So The rest of world minus japan accounts for 58%.

Now if we take the 3.6 million at the end of June as 42% we get 4.97 million for the rest of the world and 0.64 million for japan would equal about
9.21 million consoles WW.

 

[Opiate]

Because a crowd that had never purchased a game console before purchased a specific one and will never purchase a console again.

Can you distinguish this from "new consumers that were wooed to console gaming and then were promptly lost to other gaming platforms that better served their interests?"

After what, 7 generations, having only 1 generation with this extra crowd buying a waggle console, then not having that crowd buy consoles after that 1 generation, I call the total console sales from that one generation an "anomaly" when we are discussing the fact that last gen grew the industry and that we should expect similar console sales this gen.

The PS1 generation was more than 80% bigger than the SNES/Genesis generation. Were those new consumers also an "anomaly?"

The fact is that it was a temporary growth and over the course of 30 years of tracking console sales, that extra market that existed for a few years in the course of 30 years, I consider that an anomaly since it's not sustainable market.

But it is very clearly a sustainable market. The "casual" market is still growing very steadily and rapidly.