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[MisterGrey3000]

Wii U took 20 months to get to that point. Xbox One + PS4 managed it in only 8.

...This gen has just barely started for Nintendo, but I want it to be over already so we can get to the 9th gen brother consoles already....I'm so tired of watching the WiiU flop around like a suffocating fish in every territory every week/month.
:/

 

[random25]

If it drops to where it was before next month then it did not work

That's "if." Which we'll find out next month anyway.

 

[Bgamer90]

I may be missing something but looking at this from the OP:

Isn't it a bit of an over exaggeration regarding sales of the Wii U and Xbone, they all look pretty close to me, 2.5M for Wii U, 2.9M Xbone and 3.6M for PS4. The PS4 has obviously killed the others, but the other 2 are much the same at this point and we still have 5-6 years of sales to come, just seems like it will even out for the most part.

Wii U had a whole year to itself without any same gen competition. Xbox One launched after the PS4 -- very tough competition. Xbox One and PS4 already passed Wii U.

Edit: Aquamarine beat me to the punch.

 

[sörine]

Wasted money on a big game like that. But hey, SE put DQ exclusive on WiiU so worse things happen.

There's not one single exclusive DQ on Wii U.

 

[Death2494]

Wii U had a whole year by itself. Xbox One launched after the PS4 -- very tough competition. Xbox One and PS4 already passed Wii U.

Edit: Aquamarine beat me to the punch.

Sorry I'm not buying the whole "Xbox One launched after PS4" argument. Granted what you say is factually correct. Xbox One was actually available in more territories than the PS4 at launch. Wii U may have had a year head start but it's library was bone dry at the same time. My point is nearly 60% of Xbox 360's install base was in North America. This is the one market Microsoft console can't afford to be behind in. With all that said, console market is alive and well.

 

[benny_a]

Sorry I'm not buying the whole "Xbox One launched after PS4" argument.

You must be misinterpreting something. He only said the Xbox One is at the same install base than the Wii U while being the shortest on the market of the three to contextualize the "looks close to me" argument.

 

[Bgamer90]

Sorry I'm not buying the whole "Xbox One launched after PS4" argument. Granted what you say is factually correct. Xbox One was actually available in more territories than the PS4 at launch. Wii U may have had a year head start but it's library was bone dry at the same time. My point is nearly 60% of Xbox 360's install base was in North America. This is the one market Microsoft console can't afford to be behind in. With all that said, console market is alive and well.

???

I was never talking about worldwide sales and the chart is for US. Was just replying to his post. And in terms of being behind, it did take the Xbox 360 a long time to catch up to the Wii in the US too (as the chart shows). IIRC, the percentage of overall current gen consoles sales in the US for the Xbox One is the same as the 360 during the middle of its gen (about 33%). MS definitely wants to do better though as you said.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

You must be misinterpreting something. He only said the Xbox One is at the same install base than the Wii U while being the shortest on the market of the three to contextualize the "looks close to me" argument.

In a few months, it won't be close at all. That's the saddest part.

 

[Death2494]

You must be misinterpreting something. He only said the Xbox One is at the same install base than the Wii U while being the shortest on the market of the three to contextualize the "looks close to me" argument.

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

There's not one single exclusive DQ on Wii U.

It's not on PS4 or XB. I get what you mean but it's a console exclusive.

 

[Z3M0G]

15k this month

Quite dead

Didnt the BL2 bundle basically sell out everywhere? Maybe they only shipped this many...

 

[Aquamarine]

Didnt the BL2 bundle basically sell out everywhere? Maybe they only shipped this many...

It really is Sony's fault. 15K isn't indicative of June demand...the system was frustratingly supply-constrained throughout the month.

 

[theprodigy]

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

I have never seen anyone make this argument before, usually they retreat to WW sales.

 

[SwiftDeath]

New avatar!!!!! It's finally over

I like it by the way, Aqua

 

[gtj1092]

You must be misinterpreting something. He only said the Xbox One is at the same install base than the Wii U while being the shortest on the market of the three to contextualize the "looks close to me" argument.

Well yeah X1 launched last but there is a year gap between Wii U and PSX1 and only two weeks difference between X1 and Ps4. The phrasing makes it seem like the X1 is partially behind behind due to launching last.

 

[Aquamarine]

New avatar!!!!! It's finally over

I like it by the way, Aqua

Yeah, no more ponies. Screw him.

I'm in that Jet Set Radio kind of mood. Splatoon evokes that same kind of feeling so...I'm running with it.


I don't think I've seen you change your avatar once since I started posting here in 2012!

 

[Bgamer90]

The phrasing makes it seem like the X1 is partially behind behind due to launching last.

I didn't mean it that way at all. Was simply saying that even with the strong competition from the PS4 that the Xbox One passed the Wii U in sales in less than half the time the Wii U has been around; Really hard to exaggerate the Wii U sales.

Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

I don't know what to say to this. Honestly, what big name Wii U games do you think will be coming after 2016 to help the system have the 2nd place spot for the gen in the US?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yeah, no more ponies. Screw him.

lol

I'm in that Jet Set Radio kind of mood. Splatoon evokes that same kind of feeling so, I'm running with it.

Splatoon has a awesome art style to it. Not really fond of blue and orange juxtaposition because of how commonly used it tends to be but it works well in your avatar

I don't think I've seen you change your Avatar once since I started posting here in 2012!

Eh I like my avatar so never feel the desire to change it.

 

[border]

Uhm, you're conveniently ignoring that the big reason Bloodbourne's response wasn't as hyped as those games is largely b/c some idiot leaked footage of the game out to gaming forums a couple of months ahead of schedule. Or did you not see the reveal thread and the massive size and hype it garnered?

Bloodbourne is gonna be a critical exclusive in PS4's arsenal come 2015, it's got the most hype of any exclusive for that year right now, maybe even more than Uncharted

The length of a NeoGAF thread is hardly a good indicator of overall sales. This forum has way more enthusiasm for Darks Souls than Call of Duty, but the sales don't bare that out.

Dark Souls 2 sold 300K on a combined US userbase of 50-60 million consoles. I don't see how you can expect a spiritual successor to sell gangbusters - especially when it is exclusive to a system with less than 10 million US units sold.

As I said though, it depends on how much marketing support Sony want to give it and how much they can shake the perception that the game is punishingly hard and impenetrable. I personally suspect their marketing dollars will go more towards The Order than Bloodborne though.

 

[crinale]

It's not on PS4 or XB. I get what you mean but it's a console exclusive.

It was a Wii game, and still is.

 

[boiled goose]

Wiiu will not finish second in the US hahaha. Third party releases are going to keep the xb1 alive as the wiiu continues to struggle.

 

[Prevolition]

Read and think again Prevolition...think hard...

Lol, it's my reading comprehension that is lacking right now.

 

[theprodigy]

How many avatars have I even had on GAF?

lol

 

[coolasj19]

Question.
If the PS4 keeps increasing its lead over the XB1 in the NPD at the same rate as it does now, what would it look like in 2 and 3 years? This is obviously a flawed question as it doesn't take into account any fluctuations or momentum swings but I still want to know. Plus, some section of GAF actively likes doing math apparently.

 

[Nirolak]

Question.
If the PS4 keeps increasing its lead over the XB1 in the NPD at the same rate as it does now, what would it look like in 2 and 3 years? This is obviously a flawed question as it doesn't take into account any fluctuations or momentum swings but I still want to know. Plus, some section of GAF actively likes doing math apparently.

Well, you'd need to answer a few questions first.

1.) What timeframe do you mean (same as this month, same as the first half of the year, etc)?
2.) By "same rate" do you mean in terms of units or percentage?

 

[sörine]

It's not on PS4 or XB. I get what you mean but it's a console exclusive.

It's on two other consoles besides Wii U. In addition to PC and Android. You have to stretch the definition past the breaking point to call DQX any sort of Wii U exclusive.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I think Nintendo should extend the Mario Kart 8 promo. Either that or they need another promo to give away free games with Smash Bros. It is going to take some effort to move consoles consistently.

 

[joecanada]

Ohhhhh I forgot to say

Amazon Best Sellers ranking continue invictus... they nailed the best seller console in US again.

7 months in a row.

Edit - For these that follow the Prediction conversation

Keep doing what you do, I find the online retailer tracking very interesting... And there's no reason why it can't work.
It's like a Gallup poll for an election, they may only sample a few thousand out of millions of people, but they still get a good idea what's going on. They are wrong occasionally but it's usually fairly accurate..
Also look how early they call elections, console sales are like that too. Things can turn around after an influx of steady change, but ps4 isn't going to magically start being outsold enough to shrink the gap in the near future... Trends can be pretty accurate

 

[SwiftDeath]

Question.
If the PS4 keeps increasing its lead over the XB1 in the NPD at the same rate as it does now, what would it look like in 2 and 3 years? This is obviously a flawed question as it doesn't take into account any fluctuations or momentum swings but I still want to know. Plus, some section of GAF actively likes doing math apparently.

Good chance the US LTD gap between PS4 and XB1 reaches 1M in September. I suspect that while XB1 will perform better relatively to PS4 than prior months in October and November but still fail to outsell it thus by the end of the year maybe 1.3M or 1.4M lead?

With how stacked the first half of 2015 is in terms of game releases I suspect sales to be much better for next-gen than this previous year at the same time. So the gap will likely increase to 1.6M - 1.7M by maybe April or May of next year. I think a 2M gap heading into Fall 2015 is not unlikely

All of this was my random gut feelings on the matter and should be taken as such

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

Completely impossible.

WiiU's baseline is around 50k units a month. One's so far is around 145k.

At the five year mark WiiU may be sitting at 6-7 million units in America. One (if this rate is maintained indefinitely) should be around 16-18 million units.

edit: If holiday sales see significant spikes that could be 20-23 million units.

 

[balohna]

This is probably the biggest "fresh console warrior ammunition, time to go to battle" NPD thread I've seen recently.

Everything's doing well this month (except Vita I guess) relative to other recent months, let's just be happy about that.

 

[rokkerkory]

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

X1 surpassing Wii U in 8 months is not blowing it out of the water? Average units per month is almost 3x in X1's favor.

 

[Death2494]

I didn't mean it that way at all. Was simply saying that even with the strong competition from the PS4 that the Xbox One passed the Wii U in sales in less than half the time the Wii U has been around; Really hard to exaggerate the Wii U sales.



I don't know what to say to this. Honestly, what big name Wii U games do you think will be coming after 2016 to help the system have the 2nd place spot for the gen in the US?

Hold on......
can't seem to get.....this.....(frustration)

Welp, my time machine has to go the shop but as soon as it's fixed, I'll travel ahead to e3 2015 and let you know what games Nintendo will be releasing beyond 2016 lol. No, seriously, Nintendo has a much larger 1st party portfolio than Microsoft. Based on E3 2014, people are feeling optimistic about Wii U.

 

[Aquamarine]

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

I don't think you weren't around to witness the Wii U's abysmal performances last year. Its numbers were relentlessly awful month after month. That onslaught did a lot of damage to the console...the Wii U has accumulated quite a lot of baggage.

Yes it's getting attention now because of the Mario Kart 8 craze, but who knows how quickly that candle is going to burn out. Unless Mario Kart 8 completely restarts the console---which is unlikely given that 3D Mario + 2D Mario + Wii Sports + Wii Fit + Wii Party failed to do so---the Xbox One has a much better grounding to continue to grow past Wii U.

Look at third-parties. EA, Take Two, Activision, Ubisoft, etc. all want to support Xbox One with their core and casual titles. Nintendo? Not so much. There's still some casual support out there but Wii U's third-party base has shrunk dramatically since launch.

With all the baggage behind it I can't envision a future where Wii U significantly overtakes the Xbox. Not right now. Too many bridges have been burned.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Hold on......
can't seem to get.....this.....(frustration)

Welp, my time machine has to go the shop but as soon as it's fixed, I'll travel ahead to e3 2015 and let you know what games Nintendo will be releasing beyond 2016 lol. No, seriously, Nintendo has a much larger 1st party portfolio than Microsoft. Based on E3 2014, people are feeling optimistic about Wii U.

That optimism (and their largest selling franchise) amounted to a single month outpacing the GCN. With every other month performing eerily similar to the Dreamcast.

At this juncture thinking anything other than "Last place by a lot" has no bearing in reality. Seriously. I love Nintendo, but it isn't going to happen.

 

[jnWake]

Ohhhhh I forgot to say

Amazon Best Sellers ranking continue invictus... they nailed the best seller console in US again.

7 months in a row.

Edit - For these that follow the Prediction conversation

MK8 was also the top selling SKU for a lot of June too, so more points to Amazon!

Regarding Wii U, it's obvious that it'll drop, but with Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta coming I can see sales not being that bad. I know those two seem a bit niche, but at the very least they are types of games you can barely find on Wii U now, so they might attract new people. I mean, Pikmin 3 sold 100k copies on its first month so those two have a chance, with Hyrule Warriors being linked to Zelda and Bayonetta 1 being a bit of a cult classic.

For the future, Smash will obviously help and it'll be very interesting to see if Amiibo has any effect on Wii U sales. I'm very curious about Amiibo too, because if it catches on, I can see it having a nice effect on less popular titles (for example, the Captain Toad game). Nintendo is trying to make the Wii U appealing without killing themselves in the process and it'll be very interesting to see how that pans out.

 

[coolasj19]

Well, you'd need to answer a few questions first.
1.) What timeframe do you mean (same as this month, same as the first half of the year, etc)?
2.) By "same rate" do you mean in terms of units or percentage?

1.) Same as from Launch to February. And from March to Now. Assuming that from July to November is the same ratio as from March to Now.
2.) Percentage.

I didn't think about those parts of the equation. Also, I'd like the figures in increments as of the theoretical October NPD, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Years 1,2,& 3.

 

[Exploratory]

PS4 did good. XBO did... decent. That's basicly that in terms of winning NPD for a forseeable future if they don't do a price cut. People saying that XBO will win November due to Halo isn't taking into consideration that PS4 is selling more 3rd party software. Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, Evolve and Grand Theft Auto V will all help push the PS4 far more than Halo can push XBO. NPD just got very predictable for everyone except a hardcore few who believe in prophecies.

People just...they just make shit up now huh? Like just make it up.

 

[Death2494]

X1 surpassing Wii U in 8 months is not blowing it out of the water? Average units per month is almost 3x in X1's favor.

I personally don't consider that a major triumph, especially with the state Wii U has been in. I'd be more worried with how the discussion went from PS4 vs X1 to X1 vs Wii U. But it's nice see that the price reduction paid off, kind of.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Sigh it seems like the pessimism is in full force now lol.

We've had better than expected sales (for a lot of us) this month, and folks just have to talk about how one console is going to kill the other or one's going to fall flat on its face =P. Anyways...

 

[Bgamer90]

I'd be more worried with how the discussion went from PS4 vs X1 to X1 vs Wii U.

What? Are you trying to say the latter's an actual popular discussion that's going on?

 

[lifeexpectancy]

Sorry if that seems like a personal attack. I've seen that argument before. If I misinterpret you, I apologize. I was speaking in general, not to a specific person. As far as the "looks close to me" argument, Xbox One isn't exactly blowing Wii U out of the water either. Coming out only 57k ahead of a system that said to be dying isn't something to brag about. We're seeing that Nintendo first party titles move systems. Even though it launched a year later, Xbox One sales are already starting to stabilize in the US. I agree with Sipheren, it's still too close to write off Wii U taking 2nd place, at least in the US.

You keep talking about how close their install base is, but unless you go back and see what Wii U's install base was at the 8-month mark then you're comparing apples to oranges.

I'm not trying to defend XB1 mind you, because it's a trainwreck. A smaller trainwreck than Wii U, but a trainwreck nonetheless.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The PS4 and XBO are close. The XBO and Wii U are close. And the PS4 and Wii U are still relatively close. Considering these systems will sell tens of millions (or at least the PS4 and probably XBO are likely to.
They're all close in absolute terms, but that ignores the baseline rate of sales that brought them to those totals and consequently the expected trajectories based on those rates.

 

[Andronicus]

Xbox One gets an honorable mentionnnnn *Drake voice*

 

[Bgamer90]

The PS4 and XBO are close. The XBO and Wii U are close. And the PS4 and Wii U are still relatively close. Considering these systems will sell tens of millions (or at least the PS4 and probably XBO are likely to.
They're all close in absolute terms, but that ignores the baseline rate of sales that brought them to those totals and consequently the expected trajectories based on those rates.

Yep. Doesn't show the whole picture.

Similar statement could be said for this NPD sales chart too I guess.

Xbox One and PS4 are above PS2 yet I highly doubt they will be above and/or match PS2 overall US sales. (50 Million+)

 

[Aaron Strife]

MK8 was also the top selling SKU for a lot of June too, so more points to Amazon!

Regarding Wii U, it's obvious that it'll drop, but with Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta coming I can see sales not being that bad. I know those two seem a bit niche, but at the very least they are types of games you can barely find on Wii U now, so they might attract new people. I mean, Pikmin 3 sold 100k copies on its first month so those two have a chance, with Hyrule Warriors being linked to Zelda and Bayonetta 1 being a bit of a cult classic.

For the future, Smash will obviously help and it'll be very interesting to see if Amiibo has any effect on Wii U sales. I'm very curious about Amiibo too, because if it catches on, I can see it having a nice effect on less popular titles (for example, the Captain Toad game). Nintendo is trying to make the Wii U appealing without killing themselves in the process and it'll be very interesting to see how that pans out.

Hyrule Warriors seems to be treated in the media as a new Zelda game rather than a Musou-based spinoff, so I think it'll sell better than some people are predicting. But that might cut into the impact Zelda U will have (especially since I'm sure Wind Waker HD already picked up some Zelda fans).

I think Amiibo could help give the console some sense of unity/identity, since it's not tied to one game or franchise like the Disney/Skylanders figures are. Already have some Smash amiibo figures? Well they work on this game, might as well buy that one etc

 

[Sorc3r3r]

Next month will be more indicative of the trend of the wii u and the one.
People that hold their purchase in may and mk8 are hiding the real performance.

Would be great for the whole industry to have this month as a baseline for the 3 console, but i seriously doubt that this is the real value of the their market.

 

[pLow7]

You're right. Playstation was a powerful global brand that could get stomped by 15 million million units in the largest territory and still sell more overall. Xbox is not. There's a track that has established itself worldwide and things are getting "worse" ("worse") for the gap between the two consoles. Unless you want to talk second derivatives. Lol!

I know you'll say you're talking about the US only, but more important here is that Sony never got their head out of their ass in the us. The gap in sales did nothing but grow every month for four years.

I know it sucks to admit but inertia is real and it doesn't look great over in Redmond. But then again, you can carve out success to mean whatever you want like Vitamuffins and Marco and still be somewhat satisfied.

that right here.

Yeah Sony was shit the first few Years, the PS3 was "shit" and the games were too, nevertheless, it sold more units. In the long run, PS3 sold more unit in every market except of GB and US ALTHOUGH the XBOX360 is considered the superior Hardware because of that stupid Cell Processor.

Now we have, PS4 trashing the XBOX in every Market, granted in the US it might not be trashing but it still sells a lot better, while also being the superior Console.

I don't think they can turn this around, Halo might change something but only for a few Months not in the long run.

Still, the Xbox is selling well (at least in the US) just not as good as the PS4 and this seems to bother Microsoft or else they wouldn't change like Eeverything.

 

[Codeblew]

This is confusing. It doesn't print money, it's more like a money sink.

I've just been fishing around quickly (I really should be doing work) and apparently MS sunk $700 million into Xbox Live data centres last year, which is added to the claimed $1 billion they chucked on Xbox games development which I already knew, as well as the $100 million on the controller, apparently $100 million launch marketing budget for US alone etc etc.

So what I keep saying is that this machine is not meant to be sitting happy after selling 120k average monthly sales for the past 4 months. It's a multi-billion dollar product, it should be market leader at the very least.

Imagine this pulled out my arse dialogue:

Nadella: We've invested *$2 billion since launch on Xbox One.
MS shareholder: Cool. How we selling?
Nadella: Well, in the last 4 months, we're doing an average of 120k a month.
MS shareholder: Great. What territory is that, France or Germany?
Nadella: No...

It's not a good situation. It seriously ain't.

Microsoft is Dooooooomed! But seriously, it is looking pretty bad if they don't pick up their last 2 months average.

 

[Welfare]

Seeing as SKU breakdown for the One hasn't been shown yet (I think), what % was the Kinectless SKU for June? Could help show what kind of demand was pent up from May.