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[marc^o^]

I don't believe you're crazy. I believe you just desperately want to see lots of significant change when very little significant change has happened.

One significant event happened in the past 60 days: Mario Kart 8 came out. The sustained effects of that game are what are interesting to me. How the Wii U is perceived in "medias and conversations" is so irrelevant I can't even express it.

MK8 was one thing. E3 was another. John Harker said Nintendo did really well on social medias, and as someone who looks a lot into twitter, I can tell you Wii U used to be mocked months ago, it's now discussed super positively: there's good word of mouth in action. The OS update making the system more satisfying to use was another thing. Better marketing with the free game promotion is also a better execution from Nintendo. What you look as insignificant things concurred to change the narrative.

There's another theory: http://www.gameskinny.com/dxuub/wii-u-surge-due-to-disappointment-over-ps4-and-xbox-one

This could lead to believe, once big games will release on Xbox One and PS4, Wii U won't stand a chance. That could happen, though I believe Wii U's audience and value prop is different enough to sustain console sales.

 

[Wickerbasket]

Actually, the Vita is pretty close to surpassing the Dreamcast right now, and probably will do it by the end of the fiscal year. Worldwide numbers obviously.

Are we talking LTD or monthly sales? Because the Dreamcast's life was cut short due to Sega having no money which muddies things a bit.

MK8 was one thing. E3 was another. John Harker said Nintendo did really well on social medias, and as someone who looks a lot into twitter, I can tell you Wii U used to be mocked months ago, it's now discussed super positively: there's good word of mouth in action. The OS update making the system more satisfying to use was another thing. Better marketing with the free game promotion is also a better execution from Nintendo. What you look as insignificant things concurred to change the narrative.

I honestly don't see this change in narrative.

I guess the positive echo chamber is just what happens when hardcore fans of something all stick together though.

 

[MilesTeg]

The narrative for Wii U has changed only in the sense that there is less negativity surrounding the console. MK8 has released, and Nintendo surprisingly has a strong 2015 for software quantity wise (as of now - I'm fully expecting stuff like Star Fox to release in 2016). Smash is coming this holiday. It's changed from being a complete failure to the gamer, to being a niche console with some great exclusive software, with actual games to look forward to in 2015.

However that doesn't change the reality of the console at market. But, I wasn't expecting Wii U 2015 to possibly look like this:

Fatal Frame V
Yoshi's Woolly World
Splatoon
Mario Maker
Project Giant Robot
Xenoblade Chronicles X
Kirby and the Rainbow Curse
Mario Party 10
Untitled The Legend of Zelda game
Untitled Star Fox game
Project Guard
Devil's Third
Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem

That is 13 first party games right there, with a nice variety of genres. Of course it's highly unlikely all those release next year, but it's also possible Nintendo will give us a reveal at E3 2015 for release later that year, just like they have the last two years.

So for the gamer, I think Wii U has moved from total failure to possible purchase. It's no longer a complete joke. For the mass market, no, nothing has really changed. But for people like us that frequent message boards, I think Wii U perception has considerably changed for the better. Which is nice.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

I don't believe you're crazy. I believe you just desperately want to see lots of significant change when very little significant change has happened.

One significant event happened in the past 60 days: Mario Kart 8 came out. The sustained effects of that game are what are interesting to me. How the Wii U is perceived in "medias and conversations" is so irrelevant I can't even express it.

I don't agree. That used to be the case a few years ago, but social media is such a large part of modern first world discourse now that I think it's crucial. You don't think it's played a significant part in the PS4's dominance?

 

[heidern]

Good month overall. Watchdogs+Mario Kart+Kinectless have led to this it seems. Maybe UFC helped too. 3DS sales were ok likely due to Tomodachi Life but down 30% YOY, although there is a tough comparison with Animal Crossing last year.

July will be a tough month compared to this month for consoles. It's possible we're seeing the consoles hit their new baselines, but there could be declines if the big games and the Kinectless only created spikes a la Titanfall rather than a longer term boost.

Microsoft have the toughest comparison because of $100 cheaper SKU this month. Clearly Sony have the dominant console for now. Watchdogs was primed for the PS4, the next big game in Destiny is going to be the same so likely the gap would widen again. I don't see Sunset Overdrive doing much and Halo:MCC might not do too much to spark console sales either so MS best bet for any fightback is marketing activity and any exclusive content around CoD/Assassins Creed at the end of the year.

 

[DoubleTake]

Any speculation on what the Holiday bump will be like for the consoles? Wondering if it will be enough to bump the PS4 back above the Wii trajectory because I see it crossing in a couple months.

 

[airmangataosenai]

If you believe I'm crazy for saying I observe the Wii U narrative has changed for the best, please know I'm baffled on my side you didn't see any change in how Wii U is perceived in medias and in conversations this past month.

This is actually something I see in these threads a lot that I think needs to be discussed, this "Push a narrative" a lot of Nintendo fans have been doing ever since the 3DS started posting disappointing numbers. I don't want to accuse anyone of lying, but there are almost certainly people here who know enough about sales age to know when the numbers aren't good but they push a false narrative which gives newer and lower information users an incorrect idea of what the numbers means.

Case in point the Gamecube comparisons:

At the current level of sales (The Wii U beat the Gamecube in monthly tracking for the first time ever by a bit under 20k units), it would take the Wii U over 6 years of continually outselling the Gamecube by the margin it managed to reach this month just to make up for all the ground lost in the proceeding 19 months. Obviously this is impossible but we still have people convinced that the system's current trajectory has it headed for 20 million + sales worldwide when in reality it MIGHT hit 15 million if Smash Bros. can pull in a lot of users this holiday.

The people that push the narrative also led people to believe that the 3DS was a runaway hit for Nintendo. People pushed the narrative that Pokemon was going to save the platform in the west and then people were shocked when the sales plummeted in 2014, because of course all the talk about the narrative shifting was bullshit.

Edit: Also, going back to last year we also had people claiming that the Wii was doing fine and was going to turn the corner and had an amazing E3 last year as well. How much did the narrative matter back then?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

MK8 was one thing. E3 was another. John Harker said Nintendo did really well on social medias, and as someone who looks a lot into twitter, I can tell you Wii U used to be mocked months ago, it's now discussed super positively: there's good word of mouth in action. The OS update making the system more satisfying to use was another thing. Better marketing with the free game promotion is also a better execution from Nintendo. What you look as insignificant things concurred to change the narrative.

Well I hope it can survive this gen, it is true that now is a more 'positive' time for the console than for a long time. But whether that is enough, I'm not sure.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

I wonder what Murdered soul suspect numbers were. 100k<?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Any speculation on what the Holiday bump will be like for the consoles? Wondering if it will be enough to bump the PS4 back above the Wii trajectory because I see it crossing in a couple months.

How much did Wii sell in its July equivalent?

 

[Carpe Diem]

I don't believe you're crazy. I believe you just desperately want to see lots of significant change when very little significant change has happened.

One significant event happened in the past 60 days: Mario Kart 8 came out. The sustained effects of that game are what are interesting to me. How the Wii U is perceived in "medias and conversations" is so irrelevant I can't even express it.

Are you serious? Tell me you're joking!!!!!

 

[Wickerbasket]

Are you serious? Tell me you're joking!!!!!

Well, it's irrelevant if it doesn't translate into sales. That much is true.

 

[benny_a]

I honestly don't see this change in narrative.

I guess the positive echo chamber is just what happens when hardcore fans of something all stick together though.

It's the filter bubble. I'm not saying this Wii U stuff hasn't penetrated that but anecdotes are anecdotes.

Lots of Nintendo stuff was around E3, because it also coincided with the Luigi Death Stare meme and we'll have to see if that was indicative of future purchase intent or just people having fun with the latest fun thing on the net.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

I read on the internet that the Luigi death stare would outsell ps4

 

[Dire]

How much did Wii sell in its July equivalent?

425,000

 

[Ty4on]

That would be horrific if xbox one slumps back to 77k

Of course it won't. The baseline looks to be similar (or slightly higher) to April which was 115k. Extrapolating that to a five week month and adding the lost sales from May (38k) gives us 181K which is very similar to what it did in June.

 

[geordiemp]

I don't agree. That used to be the case a few years ago, but social media is such a large part of modern first world discourse now that I think it's crucial. You don't think it's played a significant part in the PS4's dominance?

No, I believe there is a strong resonance on places like GAF where the discussion on E3 and Treehouse stuff amongst Nintendo Faithful is probably just that.

Next month WiiU will probably revert to type.

 

[veritassin]

It's relative, and MK8 bundles are still sold out most places. MS had a major price drop ans wasn't that far ahead of it. It's good news considering a solid lineup leading into the holidays, where smash will be gigantic. Anecdotally perception of the system seems to be shifting too.

Doesn't nintendo have a boatload of wii u's sitting in a warehouse somewhere?

 

[Carpe Diem]

Well, it's irrelevant if it doesn't translate into sales. That much is true.

Was he speaking or sales or perception?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

425,000

Thanks.

Hmmmm. Well I don't think PS4 will match that certainly. Probably 300k+. August will see a bigger bump because of combined Destiny hype and anticipation with most of the TLOU: Remastered sales taking place during the month.

 

[Dire]

Any speculation on what the Holiday bump will be like for the consoles? Wondering if it will be enough to bump the PS4 back above the Wii trajectory because I see it crossing in a couple months.

Wii was supply constrained and sold more than 2million in its November/December period.

Should be interesting to see what the consoles this gen do given that supply will not likely be an issue.

 

[ethomaz]

Thanks.

Hmmmm. Well I don't think PS4 will match that certainly. Probably 300k+. August will see a bigger bump because of combined Destiny hype and anticipation with most of the TLOU: Remastered sales taking place during the month.

I guess September PS4 will be better than September Wii... I'm expecting over 500k for sure... maybe 600-700k.

 

[Y2Kev]

Was he speaking or sales or perception?

This is a sales thread. Talking about perception for perception's sake is meaningless.

What you look as insignificant things concurred to change the narrative.

The narrative is that Wii U was a record setting failurebox and now had one non-catastrophic month of sales. Do you disagree?

I don't agree. That used to be the case a few years ago, but social media is such a large part of modern first world discourse now that I think it's crucial. You don't think it's played a significant part in the PS4's dominance?

I haven't seen it quantified or measured in any meaningful way. Further, supposing someone could quantify it, it has to translate to sales or it would be noise. Total tweets and number of viewers on streams has a highly nebulous effect.

 

[Hero]

Guys remember when we used to talk about GBA vs PS3 in the NPD threads? Good times.

 

[Eolz]

Guys remember when we used to talk about GBA vs PS3 in the NPD threads? Good times.

I remember when the chalkboard was actually something funny and not forced yeah.

 

[March of the Crabs]

Anecdotal of course, but to boost up Wii U numbers Nintendo just needs to ship out more fucking Mario Kart bundles. At my work I have at least 2 people a day come in and ask for it, and when I tell them we have been sold out since release day (like everywhere else) they just say they'll wait for more to come in rather than spring for the Mario and Luigi bundle.
I never thought supply constraints would ever hinder a struggling console like the Wii U, but here we are.

 

[Carpe Diem]

This is a sales thread. Talking about perception for perception's sake is meaningless.

I agree it is, that much is obvious.

The narrative is that Wii U was a record setting failurebox and now had one good month of sales. Do you disagree?

So it had one good month of sales since launch? Come on mien, your bias is palpable. What is plain to see is that if and unless Nintendo releases great games then the narrative will always be "Wii U doomed". They have dug themselves a deep hole and only THEY can dig themselves out........by releasing games. Plain and simple to see.

 

[sörine]

I don't think it's more accurate. One month outselling the GameCube does not change the narrative. The system is still trailing the Dreamcast and will continue to trail it for half a year.

Who cares about the Vita? It's dead.

Why does the "narrative" have to be changed? Nothing significant has happened. Nintendo shows a few new games and we get one month of non-catastrophically awful sales and suddenly things are different?

It's a difference of percrption and it's only a first step. One that might never be followed through on well knowing Nintendo, and their empty summer lineup isn't inspiring any confidence on my part, but there's been a definite change in general perception for Wii U with E3 and Mario Kart. It's gone from a system whose support will end around it's second to third year and quietly swept under the rug to a system that looks to be getting a full console cycle and heavy 1st party commitment for the duration of it. That change in perception or "narrative" is what I think gives it more in common with Gamecube than Dreamcast now, that's what the shift was.

 

[benny_a]

So it had one good month of sales since launch? Come on mien, your bias is palpable.

Can you point me on the chart which other month was good?

 

[Guevara]

I think the narrative around the Wii U did change in the time since E3: unfortunately it only changed among the Nintendo faithful, which I would define as a number fewer than "people who bought a Gamecube". Probably only 15 million such people worldwide.

That's not nearly enough for the Wii U to "turn around" or whatever, but kudos to Nintendo for at least finally preaching to the damn choir.

 

[Y2Kev]

So it had one good month of sales since launch? Come on mien, your bias is palpable. What is plain to see is that if and unless Nintendo releases great games then the narrative will always be "Wii U doomed". They have dug themselves a deep hole and only THEY can dig themselves out........by releasing games. Plain and simple to see.

This is the first non-launch window month (defined as November and December 2012) where the sales are not ghastly. That's not even a controversial statement.

It's a difference of percrption and it's only a first step. One that might never be followed through on well knowing Nintendo, and their empty summer lineup isn't inspiring any confidence on my part, but there's been a definite change in general perception for Wii U with E3 and Mario Kart. It's gone from a system whose support will end around it's second to third year and quietly swept under the rug to a system that looks to be getting a full console cycle and heavy 1st party commitment for the duration of it. That change in perception or "narrative" is what I think gives it more in common with Gamecube than Dreamcast now, that's what the shift was.

Where's the evidence of any of this? How do you know how Nintendo will be supporting the platform in 2016 and 2017 (i.e. after the third year)?

What is any of this based on besides you saying it?

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Xbox One has third party support and definitely better hardware.

I think you meant to say PS4.

425,000

In July? FFS, Nintendo....that's damn good.

 

[benny_a]

I think you meant to say PS4.

It's a conversation about Xbox One vs. Wii U. Does it need to be pointed out the the PS4 has better hardware still when it isn't even relevant to the discussion?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Completely disregarding positive signs is just as silly as completely disregarding negative ones.

The Wii U had a solid E3 and a better month than many analysts expected, and better than the Saturn or Dreamcast had at similar points.

Can it sustain? Probably not, at least not until Smash. Then we'll have to see if Skylanders and Infinity can take advantage by appealing to those new Kart/Smash households. If they do, then okay, it might not be as bad as it has looked.

It might gain some momentum, and that's okay. At this point, it's just about getting by and staying somewhat relevant until a new box can come in 2016 or 2017.

 

[sörine]

Actually, the Vita is pretty close to surpassing the Dreamcast right now, and probably will do it by the end of the fiscal year. Worldwide numbers obviously.

No chance. Vita's only 1.9m ltd US and 2.9m ltd Japan, it's likely less than 7m sold through worldwide and it's barely pushing six figures monthly from what we can tell.

It's more like Wii U passes Vita by year's end than it is Vita passes Dreamcast.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

It's great to see old school NPD numbers and info. I know it was a leak and a one off thing but I miss classic NPD info

 

[marc^o^]

The narrative is that Wii U was a record setting failurebox and now had one non-catastrophic month of sales. Do you disagree?.

About sales it had a good launch and then collapsed totally as Nintendo failed to release games promised in the launch window, while the OS was incomplete to say the least. What I see now is they put their acts together. On top of where they stand now in terms of value prop, their short term perspective is great these holidays with Smash and Amiibos. Bayonetta sold few hundred copies and was heralded as the best action game last gen, its a niche game that will generate some good sales, even if it's no Watch Dogs obviously.

Looking in the mirror of the car is not what I do to feel trends. I'm looking ahead and what I see/feel is good. Hope I won't be wrong, maybe I will. It'll be fun to watch nevertheless.

 

[Eolz]

I think the narrative around the Wii U did change in the time since E3: unfortunately it only changed among the Nintendo faithful, which I would define as a number fewer than "people who bought a Gamecube". Probably only 15 million such people worldwide.

That's not nearly enough for the Wii U to "turn around" or whatever, but kudos to Nintendo for at least finally preaching to the damn choir.

The perception didn't change only for the nintendo faithful (cf media, sales, those wanting a second console, etc). It's just that for the huge majority, it's still not worth buying one.
It just changed from "never ever" to "maybe (but I'll find some excuse)". Probably won't change anything in terms of sales but it will at least give a possible better reception to Nintendo's next console (instead of "they'll stop supporting it next year"). That was the most important thing to do after the wii's late years and the wiiu 3rd party debacle.

 

[Carpe Diem]

Can you point me on the chart which other month was good?

Lmao. Dude I can't even read that graph. And what is the point of it anyway? Are you saying this past June is the most Units sold per month since the Wii U launched?

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It's a conversation about Xbox One vs. Wii U. Does it need to be pointed out the the PS4 has better hardware still when it isn't even relevant to the discussion?

Oh, for some reason I thought they were talking XBO vs. PS4. My bad.

 

[QaaQer]

I think the narrative around the Wii U did change in the time since E3: unfortunately it only changed among the Nintendo faithful, which I would define as a number fewer than "people who bought a Gamecube". Probably only 15 million such people worldwide.

That's not nearly enough for the Wii U to "turn around" or whatever, but kudos to Nintendo for at least finally preaching to the damn choir.

I think it's changed a bit amongst journos as well.

 

[sörine]

Where's the evidence of any of this? How do you know how Nintendo will be supporting the platform in 2016 and 2017 (i.e. after the third year)?

What is any of this based on besides you saying it?

Comments from Iwata support it and their E3 lineup was encouraging. They changed the general expectation, that's all. I'm not even saying it'll happen but it's now what people are expecting of the system trajectory and they weren't before. That's your changed narrative.

 

[theprodigy]

I don't know where this narrative has risen that WiiU is somewhat healthier in PAL territories than XBO. From the launch of WiiU PAL has been their weakest market. Heck during some quarters Nintendo has shipped minus numbers to PAL markets meaning that they have taken some consoles from retailers back as the thing is not selling. I really really don't see scenario where WiiU would be able to keep up with XBO worldwide. Japan is just too small market for home consoles nowadays.

this so much

people are treating Europe sales as the fucking Electoral College, "oh Wii U is doing better in France/Germany which combined are bigger than the UK"
no that's not how it works, the margins matter

(and unlike 360 vs PS3 Europe, Wii U is practically invisible outside the major markets)

 

[benny_a]

Lmao. Dude I can't even read that graph.

Now that is unfortunate for a sales discussion.

And what is the point of it anyway?

The point was that you laughed at the idea that there was only one good month. If you laugh at that and use it as evidence someone is teh bias, wouldn't that mean you think there were more than one?

Are you saying this past June is the most Units sold per month since the Wii U launched?

No, that would be stupid. Unless otherwise stated it's month over month discussion in here.

 

[QaaQer]

Comments from Iwata support it and their E3 lineup was encouraging. They changed the general expectation, that's all. I'm not even saying it'll happen but it's now what people are expecting of the system trajectory and they weren't before. That's your changed narrative.

Have there been any updates on Iwata's health? Is he back at work?

 

[TimeEffect]

Im no sales expert, so hearing people make WiiU/Dreamcast comparisons really scares me from picking up a WiiU.

 

[Amir0x]

MK8 was one thing. E3 was another. John Harker said Nintendo did really well on social medias, and as someone who looks a lot into twitter, I can tell you Wii U used to be mocked months ago, it's now discussed super positively: there's good word of mouth in action. The OS update making the system more satisfying to use was another thing. Better marketing with the free game promotion is also a better execution from Nintendo. What you look as insignificant things concurred to change the narrative.

There's another theory: http://www.gameskinny.com/dxuub/wii-u-surge-due-to-disappointment-over-ps4-and-xbox-one

This could lead to believe, once big games will release on Xbox One and PS4, Wii U won't stand a chance. That could happen, though I believe Wii U's audience and value prop is different enough to sustain console sales.

I mean, do you even think about the fanciful shit you post for even, like, ten total seconds back to back?

I mean, your link to "another" theory is literally fairytale, rainbow and unicorn nonsense, pulled directly from the deepest bowels of hilarity-ville.

I'll just quote one gem:

And maybe the Wii U has benefited greatly

I wouldn't say there's any pressing need to own the Wii U now, either, but it's cheaper, and Nintendo had a solid E3. I wouldn't say the recent sales surge is due entirely to Mario Kart 8 and the unveiling of Hyrule Warriors, but these games certainly had an impact. The majority of that impact, however, may be due to a general "ho-hum" attitude concerning the competition. The biggest game of 2014 so far for the PS4 is The Last Of Us: Remastered, which is, of course, a gussied-up PS3 game. And unless you're into shooters, Xbox One doesn't have anything, either.

His "theory" - and I am using that word as seriously as possible without laughing - is that due to some larger disappointment with PS4 and Xbox One, Wii U has been able to capitalize on that by finally releasing compelling content and having this one solitary month in which it still couldn't even outsell the Xbox One. And he's not even being truthful about it either, willfully misrepresenting the upcoming Xbox One lineup for example, like the fanboy he obviously is.

Tell me, what's wrong with this theory right from the start? I mean I know you want desperately to believe that just throwing more Nintendo IPs at the wall is going to change the world and Wii U will finally be a success, but you cannot be this fucking naive about the situation.

 

[Huff]

wii u new strategy. that perception change

 

[Carpe Diem]

This is the first non-launch window month (defined as November and December 2012) where the sales are not ghastly. That's not even a controversial statement.

All that is obvious my good man. The thing is we need to stick to the topic at hand or rather divert back to your original comment about perception not being relevant. You must admit that early negative perception is one of the contributing factors that has relegated the thing to seeming irrelevance.


Where's the evidence of any of this? How do you know how Nintendo will be supporting the platform in 2016 and 2017 (i.e. after the third year)?

What is any of this based on besides you saying it?

And what makes you believe that it won't be supported until the end of this Gen? Wasn't it supposed to have been "killed" last E3?

 

[Amir0x]

And what makes you believe that it won't be supported until the end of this Gen? Wasn't it supposed to have been "killed" last E3?

I don't think Y2Kev proposed proof that it wouldn't be supported until the end of this gen, just that you have no proof that they will. Additionally, if we must look for proof, we could compare the way Nintendo treated the end of Wii's life and might draw negative conclusions from that.

That isn't really proof they'll do the same thing for Wii U, of course, but the point is there isn't really hard evidence for either thought, because it depends on a lot of variables that we don't have yet (like is there still some mystical chance Wii U can turn things around? the answer is almost certainly no, but there's still some time for that to draw itself out before decisions like that are made)