geordiemp
Member
LOL, the people that watched treehouse probably were ALREADY Nintendo owners.
One month of 140 K sales and there is some very optimistic stuff going on. Guess we need another month.
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
LOL, the people that watched treehouse probably were ALREADY Nintendo owners.
One month of 140 K sales and there is some very optimistic stuff going on. Guess we need another month.
It's not necessarily about number of titles per say. But when nine out of every ten big games being talked about are now PS4/PC/Xbox One only and the only ones left being talked about coming to Wii U are either developed by Nintendo or a very close partner, you're going to have a massive marketing gap by default. You're going to have commercials that simply dwarf the amount of mentions Wii U is ever going to get, for example, just by nature of there being no third party support for the platform.
Additionally, there is no actual evidence I can see that they have chosen any quality over quantity approach (or that it was even a choice at all, rather than just being forced to appear that way because no third party games will touch the platform anymore). Their games have not been particularly higher rated than previous gens, and the ratio of highly rated games is as of yet not particularly higher percentage wise than previous gens. Maybe that'll change by the end of 2015 in terms of sheer Nintendo games, and I do think they have a rather impressive lineup for being a single developer on their platform. I was quite impressed with their E3 2014 showing. But I am not convinced of this angle of discussion imo.
I agree with this part of your post mostly in its entirety. I think Nintendo is a shrewd company, and if they can find a way to profit off of the userbase they currently have, maybe expand it a bit so it can optimistically hit 20 million sales WW, they'd consider that a win when you take a view of how the system started out in comparison. Mario Kart is a single piece of software, and like you say it is software sales that is the real meat of their profits. Nintendo has a wide array of quality titles coming next year, and I don't know what their margins are on the Wii U itself right now, but maybe they can finally break even on the whole Wii U project then and start drawing a consistent profit?
Then no matter how poorly the numbers look or the console did, at least they can come out saying it wasn't an unmitigated disaster. That's how they save face imo as they start fresh with their next console.
I believe if you carefully read Microsoft's memo from the CEO their next move has already been announced. They are pivoting back to a software company and getting out of the device market. They won't be making large investments in the Xbox division.
This goes for Sony as well. They're following the model that Apple laid out when they were in financial trouble and Steve Jobs cut down the product lines. In Sony's case, the line they are cutting is the Vita. They're putting all their effort behind the PS4 because that's where each dollar has the most benefit.
Brad Grenz
Member
Yeah, there already has been a major collapse for the brand in Europe. As it stands right now the sales advantage for PS4 is around 3:1, but in terms of ongoing sales it's probably close to 6:1. It had been discounted to below PS4 prices before Kinect was unbundled and that didn't help. Excess stock from Tier 1 countries has already been exported to all the tier 2 countries. The FIFA giveaway didn't help any. They fired the entire Xbox Europe office. The suggestion that it could end the generation only being outsold 2:1 by the PS4 is naive at best.
I think AniHawk is also drastically underestimating the size of the European console market. Combined between 360 and PS3 we're talking north of 60M systems, if my quick and dirty math is right. I could easily see PS4 well over 50M in Europe, with Xbox One a small fraction of that.
...Those would be DS-like sales, and those are impossible XD
Sony's adjusted their investment on Vita to reflect market realities but they're not cutting it. They're launching a new device this year to go after the kids market, and it's based on the Vita platform.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
How much did PS3 do in EU. I can see PS4 matching that or doing better. Along with the notable increase in sales in US, I think thats more than enough to not only overcome the decline in JP but also surpass PS3 and get to 100 million+.
I dunno man. The PS3 crossed the 30M bar in Europe at the end of 2012.
airmangataosenai
Member
PS2 did 51 million in PAL regions. Not that I'm saying it would happen, but the idea that it's impossible considering that the company pulled off the very thing you described just a few years prior and even this far out is having trouble meeting demand in some territories seems strange to me.
gundamkyoukai
Member
How much the PS4 sells in EU really depends on how fast they can cut the price .
Sony has a chance to really corner the market with right timing on price drops.
Sony has a chance to really corner the market with right timing on price drops.
shinra-bansho
Member
The lead the GCN has built up launch aligned is roughly 1.75M, including the slight reduction in that lead this last NPD month.
The only way for it to outsell the GCN going forward, assuming something like a 60 month cycle, is for it to consistently outsell the GCN in launch aligned months by about 45K for the remainder.
I.e. the rest of this year's sales would need to look something like:
July - 170K
August - 145K
September - 210K
October - 300K
November - 800K
December 1.2M
I.e. in the next six months it would need to more than double its current lifetime sales.
The only way for it to outsell the GCN going forward, assuming something like a 60 month cycle, is for it to consistently outsell the GCN in launch aligned months by about 45K for the remainder.
I.e. the rest of this year's sales would need to look something like:
July - 170K
August - 145K
September - 210K
October - 300K
November - 800K
December 1.2M
I.e. in the next six months it would need to more than double its current lifetime sales.
With only Smash Bros. as the big hit that could even have any possibility of catapulting it to such a level realistically? With Amiibo being the variable? I guess this is the plausible path Wii U has for some?
I don't think extrapolating from the Wii is a good idea.
BengaBenga
Member
GC was probably costing $99,- or maybe $149,- at this point in its lifetime though. Wii U is $299,-. If Nintendo can bring the price down there is quite some potential to reach GC numbers. Especially as Wii U makes for an excellent second console - which will be helped a lot by a lower pricepoint.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
I don't think that will happen, fans will always keep claiming "well, there's game X/Y/Z coming next year".
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Smash is the straw
It was prophesied a long time ago.
nope you must now add Amiibos, Bayonetta 2, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Splatoon, Project Guard, Star Fox and Zelda to that list
ain't nothing stops this train
prag16
Banned
The bolded.. huh? WiiPS360 sold 72k more. Not less as you're saying. Add it up again..
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
where do you guys get PS2/GCN/XB NPD numbers from?
Smash is the straw
It was prophesied a long time ago.
I say we could AT LEAST add Zelda to this.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Smash and Kart are way bigger than Zelda. If they can't do anything then Zelda won't. Besides there's no space. Someone wasted it on W101 -____-
By the time Zelda U comes out, the platform will be more than dead if the upcoming lineup is any indication. The last few Zelda console games haven't sold too well (compared to other Nintendo games), so it's pretty doubtful that it will have any effect other than a small bump.
That's the thing Amir0x, you were proven wrong, Wii U exceeded your highest prediction, one that inspired you comedy. It exceeded your realistic views, because it would have shown signed of a recovery (different word than success), which you said was impossible based on DATA and FACTS you had.
Yet despite being proven wrong this week (and I expected excuses for the mockery you made of me predicting this recovery in June), you not only didn't change your stance on Wii U's recovery potential, you keep mocking people who believe in it! That's being stubborn.
What if Wii U keeps exceeding your expectations in July? These holidays? Why not envision this might happen again?
Instead of revising your vision, you now want to place the discussion on the field of what I believe would be considered a succes for Nintendo business wise (which I don't care about, what would be the metric anyway: stock value? Brand value? On what period of time: 3 years? 5 years? More?). I remind you what we were discussing so far together these past weeks, was the recovery potential. From a Dreamcast fate to something better. These NPD numbers with GC like performance make me envision GC like numbers, over a longer period of time. As you can see, I'm consistant, just like you. Difference is, June numbers were good enough to back up a recovery potential, which make my predictions less insane than you want to make them to be, for whatever reason.
Unless they really deliver a new game with fresh gameplay. They pulled off open world well in WW, granted this will need much more land areas.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Well given how you repeatedly kept posting about how mario kart did nothing and we wpould all see that in these NPDs, if the WiiU sells okay next month are you going to finally admit you were wrong?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Thats entirely your perception.
Sure Zelda will sell well but not in the same ball park as Kart and Smash.
Haha this thread 24 hrs ago was brilliant.
Once again as me and everyone other person who read the post so far has told you, the post only strengthens my argument, it does not refute it. The literal only point of my entire post that you keep bringing up was to show that if I gave you the BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO - which was off by a mere 5000 units - even that would not be considered a 'recovery' by any standard but the lowest of standards, because the numbers are still dogshit. Why you continue to beat this drum as if you're proving something can only mean you have absolutely no other depth to your arguments anymore regarding this platform, and have to continue flashing a distracting red flag to draw attention away from this now ever more obvious fact.
The numbers we got for June were the "best case worst case scenario", in other words. Yes, it sustained these higher numbers for a longer period of time than I had anticipated, but just as I said it would, even when it did that, it meant nothing but still dogshit numbers. I mean, absolutely anything is a recovery when you're talking about the unbelievable lows Wii U was hitting per month, so if it hit my actual prediction of 115,000, that too would still have been a 'recovery', but would have still been dogshit numbers, just like 140,000 are. Just even MORE dogshit. We're essentially talking only increments of dogshit here, don't you understand this simple point?
A BEGINNINGS of a recovery that would be even remotely worth mentioning going forward would be something like hitting 150,000 units average per month consistently (which I note for your gentle ears that it did not even do THAT for this month, when one of the hottest games it's ever going to get hit its system), not counting holiday months, even during months when they don't have much major game content, which is basically going to be almost every month that doesn't have Zelda or Smash in it going forward. And that's just to hit Gamecube level success.
When you start to look at it in these stark - and yet factual - terms, you begin to realize the harsh realities of what a "recovery" actually means in the context of Wii U. Are you aiming for an actual recovery, or do you just want to see slightly better than apocalyptic numbers in order to pretend the sky isn't literally falling? Every time I ask you for some specific metric, you just pretend to ignore the question.
What if people actually started giving a shit about asynchronous gameplay mechanics, as you swore a billion times up and down would sell people on the Wii U? What if Steve Jobs actually did work for Nintendo? What if it really was your job to equalize the negativity around Nintendo no matter how absurd? What if pigs could fly?
It continues to confound me how you do not understand why nobody is expecting anything special going forward because June's numbers were still dogshit. You get that, right? You're starting to grasp this a little bit at this level of our discussion? There hasn't actually been any recovery that's worth talking about, except in context to the previously even more apocalyptic Wii U numbers. You keep trying to turn it into a recovery, and your proof continues to be my post whose whole point was to show that even if it hit these very numbers it basically did, it would mean it was doing horribly.
This is like some sad nightmare of a conversation at this point with no possible ending unless you start contextualizing our discussions and fucking filing some information away or some shit.
Because as everyone can see, due to your blatant bias, you keep moving the goal posts. I am trying to nail you down. I am not trying to be deceptive about it, I am telling you straight up. Your posts and theories are outrageous, and I am trying my best to nail you down with specifics connected to some form of evidence so that I have something to base future observations about your ideas on. Because right now as far as I can interpret what you're saying it's basically batshit and not backed up by much coherent that I can tell, and I genuinely at this point do not know how to even approach your arguments without having some hard data point for which to swing around. Something tangible from you that suggests a clear vision for how this is plausibly going to turn around. 'Cause right now it's "Mario Kart Wii bundle sold extremely well for a while, therefore MK8 bundle will save everything. Then you add Smash and Amiibos and voila magical Gamecube level recovery at least!"
No, I did not say that. Holy crap. I said it would need to sell 150k consistently, month after month (not counting the even greater expected holiday month performances naturally), pretty much from now until the end of this gen, including months without any major game releases (which will be most months for Wii U going forward).
THAT is what a recovery would look like, and only a recovery that wanted to match the Gamecube. That's how bad we are talking things are right now.
So as you can see, one aberrant month of the system doing 140,000 units for basically one of the biggest games it's ever going to get is not a recovery. It's a dream of a recovery in some very very hopeful fans minds. A very very vague dream that you can barely remember when you wake up.
Amir0x brought up some valid points and that's the way you are trying to "escape" an honest discussion of your theories? If that's seriously what you are attempting, then your tag ("Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm") appears to be pretty much justified. To an observer, your ongoing faith in some recovery - which has yet to happen while software support is only getting worse - does make you look like you lost touch with reality.
Unknown One
Member
Mario Kart just made a typical bump in sales. It'll drop down soon if I were to take a guess. 140k is still terrible compared to the MGS4 bump.
That's funny you say that because I feel like I spent way to much of my time explaing why I expected GC figures to be a reachable scenario. And I won't bite again, if 'm wrong and Wii U doesn't confirm a recovery, well I'm wrong, that will just be a wrong prediction of mine about a gaming system AFAIC. If I'm right though, and things do get better for Wii U post Mario Kart, I'll probably enjoy this outcome more than I should, thanks to some of you. See you in future NPDs, I'm done with this one.
Sheesh. You're better at twisting words and deliberate misinterpretation than anyone I've seen on this forum, just in a purely defensive manner, not lashing out at other platforms like some posters do.
Marc, Amir0x has been entirely consistent, from the post you yourself are quoting of his, and his ensuing points therein. He has never moved his "goalposts". You are deliberately misinterpreting his entire statement in his 'exaggerated' prediction, which was him telling you that even if they managed a crazy increase that remained consistent, it would still be shitty. Even if it had hit 150k, that number wouldn't have been a sign of a recovery on its own. The system would have to display a consistent new baseline at around that point, and even be steadily increasing. A single month hitting a historic high for the system outside of the holidays is not a sure recovery.
We get it. You love Nintendo and the Wii U, and that's great! Just... this is madness. You sound like the opposite of a homeless doomsayer, predicting the rise/recovery of something with no foundation to stand on thus far. Did you see the post about what it would take for the Wii U to beat the gamecube? It would have to more than double its LTD numbers. Do you really think that's feasible? Cause, if so, you might literally be insane.
NeonZ
Member
Isn't that exactly the market that has been eroded by the expansion of Mobile though? I think Smash Bros has a chance to hold its numbers better than Mario Kart exactly because its main audience wasn't the market that Nintendo lost and has basically no chance to recover.
Chû Totoro
Member
You may have you opinion but just for one second, imagine you're wrong.
And even if you're right. Wii U will sell less than GC... and?
Don't try to argue on something that can't be demonstrate. You're both making assumptions. It's not like there is a direct scientific theory that can be applied on Wii U sales. So yeah you think despite its recent recovery, Wii U won't surpass GC sales... ok you have the right to believe that and it's very kind of you to try to make your point valid with constructive posts but that's still not facts.
No need to discuss more when you and Marc^o^ have very different views on the market.
I personally think every system (Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One) is not selling as good as it should / could. I won't take the time to look at everything in details but I don't think the industry in general makes more money with these systems comparing to PS3/Xbox and Wii.
imo only Nintendo starts now to recover a little with a better support of Wii U. Xbox One and PS4 are good fancy systems but they're lacking media capabilities and they're more importantly lacking games. End of 2014 will be the start of the real next gen offer. Seeing the % of sales each competitor gets during 4th quarter will be a sign to follow imo (Sony may still be the 1st but Xbox One and Wii U may be closer... worldwide).
That's a nice way to escape from reality, well done
If you think that speculation about Nintendo convincing 3DS players to move to Wii U or that Wii U will last 7 years (when Nintendo stopped supporting the Wii after only 5 years) or even that 3rd party publishers will return to Wii U in future, then I'm not too convinced. Wii U hardware sales have seen a huge improvement with the launch of what's probably the biggest title the system is ever going to get, yet sales are still low. With the upcoming lineup, do you seriously believe that they can keep sales even at this rather low level? I know that you seriously think so, but how are they supposed to achieve that? Be realistic just for a single moment. Interest in the console still remains incredibly low - which becomes even more apparent once you take a look at the other major region (hint: it's not Japan but something that starts with an E) when it comes to gaming.
Yes, that's why we've seen such a huge dropoff in sales for both MK7 and MK8. Still the family userbase is still relatively big on Wii U as evidenced by sales of these family titles (in other words: everything with Mario in the title). Also, considering SSB, 2014 is not 2001. Melee brought something rather new to the table with a huge improvement in the visual department over SSB64, whereas SSB for Wii U looks like just another continuation of the series. I believe there is strong reason to doubt that it will outsell MK8.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Chû Totoro;121845130 said:You may have you opinion but just for one second, imagine you're wrong.
And even if you're right. Wii U will sell less than GC... and?
Don't try to argue on something that can't be demonstrate. You're both making assumptions. It's not like there is a direct scientific theory that can be applied on Wii U sales. So yeah you think despite its recent recovery, Wii U won't surpass GC sales... ok you have the right to believe that and it's very kind of you to try to make your point valid with constructive posts but that's still not facts.
No need to discuss more when you and Marc^o^ have very different views on the market.
I personally think every system (Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One) is not selling as good as it should / could. I won't take the time to look at everything in details but I don't think the industry in general makes more money with these systems comparing to PS3/Xbox and Wii.
imo only Nintendo starts now to recover a little with a better support of Wii U. Xbox One and PS4 are good fancy systems but they're lacking media capabilities and they're more importantly lacking games. End of 2014 will be the start of the real next gen offer. Seeing the % of sales each competitor gets during 4th quarter will be a sign to follow imo (Sony may still be the 1st but Xbox One and Wii U may be closer... worldwide).
You could have saved a lot of time saying:
You guys presented well supported data and projected figures that match that data I'm going to just contest it by disagreeing and making some stuff up.
Chû Totoro;121845130 said:You may have you opinion but just for one second, imagine you're wrong.
And even if you're right. Wii U will sell less than GC... and?
Don't try to argue on something that can't be demonstrate. You're both making assumptions. It's not like there is a direct scientific theory that can be applied on Wii U sales. So yeah you think despite its recent recovery, Wii U won't surpass GC sales... ok you have the right to believe that and it's very kind of you to try to make your point valid with constructive posts but that's still not facts.
No need to discuss more when you and Marc^o^ have very different views on the market.
I personally think every system (Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One) is not selling as good as it should / could. I won't take the time to look at everything in details but I don't think the industry in general makes more money with these systems comparing to PS3/Xbox and Wii.
imo only Nintendo starts now to recover a little with a better support of Wii U. Xbox One and PS4 are good fancy systems but they're lacking media capabilities and they're more importantly lacking games. End of 2014 will be the start of the real next gen offer. Seeing the % of sales each competitor gets during 4th quarter will be a sign to follow imo (Sony may still be the 1st but Xbox One and Wii U may be closer... worldwide).
Chu, are you arguing that because we cannot "prove" projections (in that the truth only becomes known with absolute certainty later), that therefore all projections are equally rational?
A Meteorologist uses the most advanced scientific instruments we have available to make a projection that today it will be 85 degrees, while another person does an interpretive dance and decides it will be 25 degrees, and you treat these projections equally?
The preponderance of historical data suggests that the Wii U will not recover meaningfully in terms of units sold. It might make a profit for Nintendo -- that's entirely possible, given Nintendo's frugality -- but it's extremely unlikely to go on to sell 30M+ units because history tells us that consoles which start the way the Wii U has sell closer to 5-15 million, not 20 or 30 or 40 million.
Could it possibly break out of this projection? Could the Wii U buck historical trends? Sure, of course, it's possible. It's a very low probability chance, but it's possible. Based on the evidence we have available to us right now, the likely outcome for the Wii U is 10-15M lifetime units sold.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
That was my point. I said they were lost "for now," not for good. It will take something different to bring them on board like motion controls did. VR done right and cheap seems the most obvious next thing with the potential to do that. And unless they're just staying mum about that, Nintendo has nothing major going on like Morpheus or Occulus Rift.
Losing the kid market is really Nintendo's main worry though. A lot of parents are going to keep balking at buying their young kids a $150+ portable and $30-$40 games when they can keep their kids just as occupied with hand,e down phones/tablets with a ton of games free or a buck or two.
Who's going to buy Nintendo consoles in future generations when those kids grew up with Minecraft etc. instead of Mario and Pokemon?
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
150,000 units average per month consistently
Come on, at least try and read what he's saying to you. Your stance on this is ridiculous, but we'll see at July NPD where you adjust it to when WiiU doesn't sell as well as June, and the cat stays on the floor.
Wii U is already past the 5M mark(over 6M shipped). Nintendo have projected cumulative shipments of over 9M by next March which would be just under 2.5 years or half way into the life cycle. The safe prediction is for Wii U to be between 15-20M after 5 years. Less than that is unlikely and more than that is possible if either there are some surprise hits or it turns out to be a slow burner which maintains or even increases sales in 2015/2016.
ethomaz
Banned
Ops... you are right... when I did the maths I messed something because I got 598 for the old gen lol
Well ignore my comment
sorry.~140k or better every moth will make he agree with you..
Not this month 140k and next one 90k... Wii U needs a base to say it is a recovery.
That what I get from Amir0x comment and I agree.
ethomaz
Banned
This site have it.
http://forum.everyeye.it/invision/index.php/forum/346-archivio-dati/ (posted in this thread already).
kingkaiser
Member
So ehm, let's do the math.
You say, it needs constant monthly sales in the range of 150k, right?
That would be like 1.8 million sold units a year, over the period of the next (let's say five years) that would be 9 million sold units.
Considering that the Cube sold 12 million units in the US, your estimate seems spot on, but...when you consider that nintendo products typically sell exponentially well during Christmas, I would not exclude the possibility that Nintendo could manage to sell like 1 million units during every upcoming November and December, in the next five years.
To meet your set goal of 1.8 million sold units a year, that would left 800k units to be sold during the remaining 10 months, every year, which would be constant 80k units every month.
Well, considering the upcoming line-up of games, I would say that these numbers (80k a month) are quite reachable.