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[hodayathink]

I expect Sony's price cuts to coincide more with actual reductions to the cost of production due to economics of scale in components, to be honest. Their permanent price cut will probably be a direct result of the cost of production having permanently dropped below a certain threshold, and might be accompanied by a new (not necessarily new SKU, but in terms of build) version of the hardware.

That should be happening fairly soon, though, unless there are mitigating factors I'm not aware of, such as the ones Nintendo had with some of the fabs producing chips for them a year or so back.

It might have already happened. The new SKU (CUH-1200) is lighter and consumes less power, so at least some of the internals have been changed. It's possible that whatever they've done also decreased the BOM of the system a fair, and they haven't passed that back onto consumers yet because there's no real reason not to, since sales, while not as good as last year (as far as NPD is concerned), haven't been necessarily bad. If the BOM of the new systems is lower than the older ones, it puts them in a great position to be able to clear the channel of old stock naturally, and be completely ready to drop the price come Sept/Oct/Nov.

 

[Javin98]

If the PS4 were discontinued we nor Sony would have to worry about it.

But then the console doomsayers would be right and the whole of gaming collapses.

Haha, well they will need a price drop eventually, but I called it that they would take a bundle heavy-no price drop strategy for most of the year, and it will work.

Now the holidays will be tricky, but I think that they will simply do big deals, and save the price drop for the spring when UC4/SFV launches.

Well, I think we'll see a price drop at Sony's TGS press conference.

 

[wachie]

Looks like a great result for both PS4 & Xbox One.

PS4 definitely needed that BAK co-marketing to pull out a win against Xbox One's various deals.

 

[ninjablade]

Is it officially time to bury the "console sales will be down annnnnny moment now" negativity. People are buying. Our hobby is growing. Everyone deal with it

This was started mainly by nintendo fans not accepting the wiiu bombing cause the wii was so successful, console sales are looking good world wide, maybe we should wait for a generation with average sales for consoles before talking about the doom of consoles.

 

[Deleted member 471617]

The PS4 sells well when there are popular 3rd party titles also selling. The PS4's higher price hurts them when that isn't the case. There are enough big titles coming out at the end of the year that keeping the $399 price could work.

However, I expect Microsoft to make another strong push on price/value for the holidays. If the XB1 gets close to a $299 price or equivalent that would be enough to break the PS4's momentum if it is still stuck at $399. Keeping that momentum alone is probably worth a price cut due to the marketing advantage it gives them. Sony has a chance to cross a tipping point where its market share alone would be a huge benefit to the PS4. It'll become the default console to buy and have first crack at any exclusive deals.

I think another reason why Sony might lower the price of the PS4 is that Project Morpheus is coming out next year. The more consoles they sell, the easier it will be to sell the VR addon. Therefore it makes sense to sell as many consoles this holiday season as possible before the Morpheus debut in the first half of 2016.

Even without strong titles from third parties, Sony still won four out of the first five months this year. Their brand is strong except for Vita and even that could be strong but they simply didn't market it like they should have and releasing PSTV killed any chance of Vita having an HDMI port.

Back to PS4, Sony could easily rival Xbox One at $300 this holiday season by having a few different bundles at $400. COD and Battlefront limited edition at $400 plus a Sony "exclusives" bundle at $400 which would include their exclusives released thus far via digital download.

I agree in regards to lowering the price due to Morpheus but that's more about when Morpheus gets released. I'm still guessing September 2016. Early 2016 would take away the focus from Uncharted 4 and SFV and cause consumers to spend more money at once as opposed to September being a slower month for them and the main focus being Morpheus. Also, there has to be games, good games for Morpheus at launch and the price can't be that expensive or it's going to bomb once the novelty wares off.

U.S. wise, I think that it will always be close. I don't see Sony gaining lead of more than 1m if that and if Microsoft was to surpass them, I don't see them going past a 1m lead. It's just too close for either to gain a big lead. One of them would have to screw up real bad in order for that to happen. Rest of the world though, it's already over.

My prediction still remains the same - Sony drops the price of the PS4 to $300 at E3 2016 and announces a $200 price tag for Morpheus. Unless Xbox One blows away PS4 in sales the next three months, I don't see Sony lowering the price at all this year.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

This was started mainly by nintendo fans not accepting the wiiu bombing cause the wii was so successful, console sales are looking good world wide, maybe we should wait for a generation with average sales for consoles before talking about the doom of consoles.

Saying Gen 8 might see a contraction and not live up to Gen 7 (or possibly Gen 6) sales is not predicting the "doom of consoles".

Some of you get too worked up over this stuff. It's really not the end of the world if this generation isn't as successful as the previous two.

 

[Typicalrik]

Question: If I am not mistaken, digital sales are not counted in the NPD. Yet, Sony has been consistently winning the "most" software sales each month. Its a pretty good guess that Sony has higher digital sales than the One, and therefore even though NPD shows the One winning some of the software sales...this could entirely be false?

 

[DeepEnigma]

This was started mainly by nintendo fans not accepting the wiiu bombing cause the wii was so successful, console sales are looking good world wide, maybe we should wait for a generation with average sales for consoles before talking about the doom of consoles.

Do not forget the personal favorite, "but Japan tho".

Saying Gen 8 might see a contraction and not live up to Gen 7 (or possibly Gen 6) sales is not predicting the "doom of consoles".

Some of you get too worked up over this stuff. It's really not the end of the world if this generation isn't as successful as the previous two.

I am sure they are talking about the sensational people who say, "console gaming is dying", versus ones saying "contraction".

We can all agree about contraction or expansion when it comes to any medium.

 

[Imperfected]

It might have already happened. The new SKU (CUH-1200) is lighter and consumes less power, so at least some of the internals have been changed. It's possible that whatever they've done also decreased the BOM of the system a fair, and they haven't passed that back onto consumers yet because there's no real reason not to, since sales, while not as good as last year (as far as NPD is concerned), haven't been necessarily bad. If the BOM of the new systems is lower than the older ones, it puts them in a great position to be able to clear the channel of old stock naturally, and be completely ready to drop the price come Sept/Oct/Nov.

That's pretty interesting. I wonder if they're going to do a permanent price drop before the holiday season, or do something more similar to what Microsoft did during their tough times last year, and simply have "temporary" but ultimately overlapping sales that amount to a constant price cut over the holiday period.

I'm pretty sure they're going to do one or the other, but I'm not fully cognizant of the how they (internally) perceive the different advantages of the two methods. (My assumption would be that a permanent price drop creates far more instantaneous buzz than a temporary sale, but obviously locks the option of going back above that price in the future, forcing a complete commitment to the new price point.)

 

[Deleted member 471617]

PS4 definitely needed that BAK co-marketing to pull out a win against Xbox One's various deals.

This, I disagree with simply because the Xbox deals were the week Batman released. The deals existed because of the PS4 Batman bundles. If there were no Batman bundles at all, there wouldn't have been any reason for Microsoft to have any of those deals. The Xbox One deals were simply to counter the PS4 bundle.

 

[crinale]

It might have already happened. The new SKU (CUH-1200) is lighter and consumes less power, so at least some of the internals have been changed. It's possible that whatever they've done also decreased the BOM of the system a fair, and they haven't passed that back onto consumers yet because there's no real reason not to, since sales, while not as good as last year (as far as NPD is concerned), haven't been necessarily bad. If the BOM of the new systems is lower than the older ones, it puts them in a great position to be able to clear the channel of old stock naturally, and be completely ready to drop the price come Sept/Oct/Nov.

That's true but we don't know when retail channel will be filled by that model. BTW it happend in Japan already but Sony did nothing regarding price cut.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

This is the first generation in which no manufacturer is going to increase their hardware production from the prior generation. Sony is likely to be the least affected by this shift, but they will still feel it.

That alone should scare dedicated gamers

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I am sure they are talking about the sensational people who say, "console gaming is dying", versus ones saying "contraction".

We can all agree about contraction or expansion when it comes to any medium.

How many people are legitimately saying that though? I'm sure there are a few. But most who are worried about this generation simply believe it will fail to live up to the highs we saw in Gen 6 and 7. That's it. Even if that ends up being the case, the industry can still be healthy. It will be sad to see Gen 8 be the first generation without an increase in hardware sales though, regardless of the reason (mainly Nintendo).

 

[DeepEnigma]

Looks like a great result for both PS4 & Xbox One.

PS4 definitely needed that BAK co-marketing to pull out a win against Xbox One's various deals.

This, I disagree with simply because the Xbox deals were the week Batman released. The deals existed because of the PS4 Batman bundles. If there were no Batman bundles at all, there wouldn't have been any reason for Microsoft to have any of those deals. The Xbox One deals were simply to counter the PS4 bundle.

So one can then say MSFT needed those deals so they it was not a bloodbath.

How many people are legitimately saying that though? I'm sure there are a few. But most who are worried about this generation simply believe it will fail to live up to the highs we saw in Gen 6 and 7. That's it. Even if that ends up being the case, the industry can still be healthy.

No clue, was just providing perspective, but those always seem to be the loudest, the #ConcernTrolling

I most certainty agree with the bold.

It will be sad to see Gen 8 be the first generation without an increase in hardware sales though, regardless of the reason (mainly Nintendo).

Stealth edit you!

I think at that point you have to look at software sales for the PS4 and Xbox if the console sales do not match or beat Gen 7.

 

[small44]

Sony is focusing this gen more about profitability more then any other gen so i will not be suprised if PS4 don't get a price cut this years.
I think they better do a temporary price cut in Holiday then a permanent price cut

 

[Aceofspades]

PS4 software sales are seriously impressive, I mean pulling around 65% of most multiplat in NPD. Can you guys imagine the WW split?!

Thats really impressive.

 

[Obliterator]

This is the first generation in which no manufacturer is going to increase their hardware production from the prior generation. Sony is likely to be the least affected by this shift, but they will still feel it.

That alone should scare dedicated gamers

Wait what? Are you saying PS4 will not surpass PS3 hardware shipments?

 

[Jigorath]

Geez, now we're back to Sony doesn't need to drop the price of the PS4. It's funny how it works the other way when it's a slow month. Back in April and May, some people were like "Terrible sales for a market leader. Consoles are dead!". In June, they're like "The PS4 is selling so well. No price drop needed!", although these are two different groups of posters. Well, at least the latter is not as bad as the former.

I'm still in the "it needs a price drop this year" camp. Of course, this was a very nice month for PS4 and Xbone HW sales.

 

[stryke]

Sony is focusing this gen more about profitability more then any other gen so i will not be suprised if PS4 don't get a price cut this years.
I think they better do a temporary price cut in Holiday then a permanent price cut

Didn't you see what happened at the beginning of the year? It would kill their sales if they raised it again next year.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Even without strong titles from third parties, Sony still won four out of the first five months this year. Their brand is strong except for Vita and even that could be strong but they simply didn't market it like they should have and releasing PSTV killed any chance of Vita having an HDMI port.

Back to PS4, Sony could easily rival Xbox One at $300 this holiday season by having a few different bundles at $400. COD and Battlefront limited edition at $400 plus a Sony "exclusives" bundle at $400 which would include their exclusives released thus far via digital download.

I agree in regards to lowering the price due to Morpheus but that's more about when Morpheus gets released. I'm still guessing September 2016. Early 2016 would take away the focus from Uncharted 4 and SFV and cause consumers to spend more money at once as opposed to September being a slower month for them and the main focus being Morpheus. Also, there has to be games, good games for Morpheus at launch and the price can't be that expensive or it's going to bomb once the novelty wares off.

U.S. wise, I think that it will always be close. I don't see Sony gaining lead of more than 1m if that and if Microsoft was to surpass them, I don't see them going past a 1m lead. It's just too close for either to gain a big lead. One of them would have to screw up real bad in order for that to happen. Rest of the world though, it's already over.

My prediction still remains the same - Sony drops the price of the PS4 to $300 at E3 2016 and announces a $200 price tag for Morpheus. Unless Xbox One blows away PS4 in sales the next three months, I don't see Sony lowering the price at all this year.

Sony projecting that they are going to sell YOY more PS4 units, but make less money for this fiscal year disproves that entire last blurb. There will be a price cut this year.

 

[RespectThySole]

Congrats to The Witcher 3. Looks like my prediction earlier was spot on:

True, but I'd be surprised if XB1 won even with the bundles not counting. These types of games usually skew more towards PS4. If it was a FPS(like Destiny or Hardline) I would give it a better chance. Perhaps XB1 will have the most sales of ESO though due to the brand strength on Xbox.

 

[Sharpeye]

A price drop to go along with their VR launch in spring is what i'm thinking.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Sony projecting that they are going to sell YOY more PS4 units, but make less money for this fiscal year disproves that entire last blurb. There will be a price cut this year.

I missed that info, thank you. Combined with the lower cost 1200.

Stealth announcement before MSFT Gamescon presser. You watch, lol.

Nah. Paris.

Probably the more believable scenario (I did mention it to be PGS earlier in here), maybe a Morpheus price and launch date as well? Or will they save that for PSX?

 

[Guymelef]

I missed that info, thank you. Combined with the lower cost 1200.

Stealth announcement before MSFT Gamescon presser. You watch, lol.

Nah. Paris.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Nah. Paris.

 

[Otakumegane]

Wait people are still acting like Gen 8 hardware being a pretty sizeable contraction is the doom of the industry?

 

[Jessmo111]

I noticed smash dropped from the charts, from last month. Is there a GAF sales age gawd, that I can offer sacrifices to for answers?


*sacrifices a virgin*

 

[QaaQer]

Wait people are still acting like Gen 8 hardware being a pretty sizeable contraction is the doom of the industry?

tbf, the contraction was massive and scary, but it looks to have stabilized at a new norm. & even with the smaller market, Ninty and Sony have profitable game divisions, not sure about MS.

 

[hodayathink]

Even without strong titles from third parties, Sony still won four out of the first five months this year. Their brand is strong except for Vita and even that could be strong but they simply didn't market it like they should have and releasing PSTV killed any chance of Vita having an HDMI port.

Sony killed the Vita (well, even more than the market killed the Vita) because once the PS4 was officially released and successful, it made no financial sense to put any of their internal development teams on Vita games when they could be making PS4 games. By 2014, it was fairly obvious that even a bad PS4 game would be a better return on investment from a team than a great Vita game (*cough* Tearaway *cough*).

I agree in regards to lowering the price due to Morpheus but that's more about when Morpheus gets released. I'm still guessing September 2016. Early 2016 would take away the focus from Uncharted 4 and SFV and cause consumers to spend more money at once as opposed to September being a slower month for them and the main focus being Morpheus. Also, there has to be games, good games for Morpheus at launch and the price can't be that expensive or it's going to bomb once the novelty wares off.

U.S. wise, I think that it will always be close. I don't see Sony gaining lead of more than 1m if that and if Microsoft was to surpass them, I don't see them going past a 1m lead. It's just too close for either to gain a big lead. One of them would have to screw up real bad in order for that to happen. Rest of the world though, it's already over.

My prediction still remains the same - Sony drops the price of the PS4 to $300 at E3 2016 and announces a $200 price tag for Morpheus. Unless Xbox One blows away PS4 in sales the next three months, I don't see Sony lowering the price at all this year.

They've consistently said first half of 2016, and if they meant fiscal, they would have said fiscal at some point since the first time they said it (which I believe was at GDC this year). I can easily see them releasing in May, which is far enough away from the March games as to not completely overshadow them. Or even late June with E3 being the final public push as far as marketing/advertising is concerned.

 

[KillerMan91]

Good hw sales for Xbone and PS4 and great sw sales all around. Splatoon also sold well but unlike in Japan it didn't really push any hardware.

Wait what? Are you saying PS4 will not surpass PS3 hardware shipments?

He could mean total Sony hardware sales and count PSP and Vita to that. Even if PS4 sells more than PS3 there will be pretty big drop because of Vita will not sell anywhere near PSP.

 

[Welfare]

I noticed smash dropped from the charts, from last month. Is there a GAF sales age gawd, that I can offer sacrifices to for answers?


*sacrifices a virgin*

We take juniors, not virgins.

 

[Warm Machine]

If I was running Sony and say that I was outselling the competition with the price I was at I would not lower it. Especially since I was probably making $50-$75 ever time I sell one. The next price drop they can do is about $50 which would do significant damage to their return. Sony has so few profitable pieces of hardware at the moment I wouldn't count on a price drop on their success.

 

[rokkerkory]

Zero reasons to drop price of PS4.

 

[ethomaz]

Amazing PS4 performance.

Basically flat YoY in 2015.

2014: 1,577k
2015: 1,561k (-1%)

2015 gap: 277k

Beast mode.

 

[Jessmo111]

For those of you clamoring for Nintendo leaving hardware, wouldn't a Nintendoless generation, become a huge contraction? Im not sure people see the importance, of Pokemon, Mario, Kirby ect being a gateway to more hard core games. Poke mon and Mario got you into gaming. Halo and witcher keeps you around. Not to mention the niche they fill.

 

[Square2015]

Whipped up a quick console war graph:
*edited / removed*

 

[Zaventem]

Honestly i never gave my opinion here but I thought splatoon was going to be a failure.

 

[QaaQer]

For those of you clamoring for Nintendo leaving hardware, wouldn't a Nintendoless generation, become a huge contraction? Im not sure people see the importance, of Pokemon, Mario, Kirby ect being a gateway to more hard core games. Poke mon and Mario got you into gaming. Halo and witcher keeps you around. Not to mention the niche they fill.

the clamour that I hear mostly centers around Nintendo hardware being a poor value proposition. I mean MS gives you 5 billion transistors, a decent online experience, and a good OS for your $349.

But yeah, ninty is the only one focusing on the family and kid friendly quality games. If they can pair that with an attractive piece of hardware...hey didn't they do that with the wii?

 

[ethomaz]

If I have the right numbers the yearly numbers are:

PS4 2013: 2003k
XBO 2013: 1817k

2013 GAP: 186k

PS4 2014: 4694k
XBO 2014: 4374k

2014 GAP: 320k

PS4 2015: 1561k
XBO 2015: 1284k

2015 GAP: 277k


Overall GAP: 783k

 

[The_Dama]

Whipped up a quick console war graph:

How accurate is that chart?

 

[ethomaz]

How accurate is that chart?

Looks accurate...

 

[Imperfected]

Zero reasons to drop price of PS4.

I think people are overestimating the amount of the margin that's tied up in the immediate profitability of the hardware. What's the current attach rate for software? PS+? $50 more per unit sold doesn't matter much if you can get more subscriptions and more software royalties by lowering the price to drive more sales.

We should get a better idea of where the profit margins are actually coming from later this month. I've got a feeling that attach rates for both software and subscriptions are high enough that Sony is highly incentivized to pursue sales quantity aggressively rather than quibbling over a lesser revenue source in having that padded hardware profit margin.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Wait what? Are you saying PS4 will not surpass PS3 hardware shipments?

Ps4 should surpass PS3, but Vita drags Sony down significantly. Sony sold at least 160 million units of hardware last gen. This gen their ceiling is 130 million units. Nintendo sold 250 million units of hardware last gen, their ceiling is 80 million units this gen. MS sold 90 million units of hardware last gen (roughly), their ceiling is 50 million units this gen.

 

[Pathfinder]

XBO MoM rise was 114%

YoY rise is 51%

Weekly average

May: 139k / 4 weeks = 34,750

June: 297k / 5 weeks = 59,400

PS4 MoM rise was 140%

YoY rise is 36%

Weekly average

May: 152k / 4 weeks = 38,000

June: 365k / 5 weeks = 73,000

Wii U MoM rise was 67%

YoY drop is 50%

Weekly average

May: 42k / 4 weeks = 10,500

June: 70k / 5 weeks = 14,000

PS4 v ONE gap

~770k

Well done.

 

[Averon]

That's true but we don't know when retail channel will be filled by that model. BTW it happend in Japan already but Sony did nothing regarding price cut.

The CUH-1200 model came out very recently, so the retail chain is likely still filled with the CUH-1100 model. I suspect Sony is waiting for the the stock of CUH-1100 model to be depleted and fill the retail chain with CUH-1200 models before they make any price cut.

 

[Welfare]

If I have the right numbers the yearly numbers are:

You're off somewhat in 2014 for the PS4, and mostly everything else is off by 1-2k.

 

[joecanada]

The CUH-1200 model came out very recently, so the retail chain is likely still filled with the CUH-1100 model. I suspect Sony is waiting for the the stock of CUH-1100 model to be depleted and fill the retail chain with CUH-1200 models before they make any price cut.

I don't understand this. If they were shipped out already why would sony care about dropping price they aren't getting any more money for them.
I'm calling a 50 dollar cut for November

 

[ethomaz]

You're off somewhat in 2014 for the PS4, and mostly everything else is off by 1-2k.

Well these are the numbers I got in the old GAF threads.... maybe some math mistake in that time.

 

[Javin98]

I'm still in the "it needs a price drop this year" camp. Of course, this was a very nice month for PS4 and Xbone HW sales.

It will most likely happen. Sony's sales projections for 2015 shows that they are expecting more units sold but less revenue. To me, that can only mean imminent price cut. So yeah, I'm in that camp as well.

 

[jroc74]

For those of you clamoring for Nintendo leaving hardware, wouldn't a Nintendoless generation, become a huge contraction? Im not sure people see the importance, of Pokemon, Mario, Kirby ect being a gateway to more hard core games. Poke mon and Mario got you into gaming. Halo and witcher keeps you around. Not to mention the niche they fill.

I guess it all depends on if they went........THIRD PARTY, PARTY, PARTY...

And made the same quality games as a......THIRD PARTY, PARTY, PARTY....

I cant imitate the echo effect online...lol.

If any one of the consoles left home console gaming and there were only 2....It could still be healthy IMO if the 2 kept pace of the 1-2 home console sellers in any previous gen.

Look at Nintendo consoles sales minus the Wii in each gen. 1-2 did fine when Nintendo was low on the totem pole. Look at last gen, remove the PS3 or 360 and it still looks fine for 1-2.

For handhelds its basically been Nintendo since they started doing handhelds. Yay for PSP last gen but cmon...Nintendo has the handheld market on lock. Smartphones, tablets are probably hurting them there more vs hurting their home consoles.