Sorry, missed this. Hopefully you saw my other updates on the last couple of pages.
What I've done is created a chart which shows how the PlayStation 4 is performing against all home consoles in the USA that have sold more than 40 million units to date. The PlayStation 2 still remains the cumulative sales leader in the USA with approximately 46.4 million consoles sold.
What this shows is that the PlayStation 4 got off to a great start with high opening sales due to the pent up demand from a long gen 7. Early adopters and core gamers were keen to get their hands on the latest PlayStation console and stores were sold out even into early 2014. However, we are now at a point where Sony have got the supply chain exactly how they want it and are producing as many consoles as they need with ease in order to satisfy demand.
The PlayStation 2 launched after the huge success of the original PlayStation, early adopters and gamers got their hands on the system early on which faced production and supply issues for quite some time. As it was the only next generation system on the market at the time there was little to no competition and the price was the same as the PS1 launch price. Sony drove PlayStation 2 sales through excellent software and through great deals and price cuts during this period. Ultimately the momentum that PS4 and PS2 have had has been fairly similar however the PS2 did have better holiday sales due to no competition in year one (where as PS4 had the Xbox One cheaper) and the reason the PS2 starts to pull away at month 20 is because of the $100 price cut.
The Nintendo Wii was a product that resonated both with early adopters/core gamers but also with the casual market as well. Whilst the PS2 saw more casuals adopt later in the life cycle the Wii saw them all at the front door from day 1. In fact Nintendo couldn't make enough Wii's to keep up with demand so that line could be a lot steeper. The PS4 has not yet got to a point where it will see mass casual adoption and so in the first 36 months I do not see the PS4 getting anywhere near that Wii line. Of course the Wii does have a drop in sales later in the gen where the PS4 can pull back a bit.
The Xbox 360 started off slow.... in fact the console actually sold a bit worse compared to the original Xbox for a bit. The PS2 was the main competitor and there weren't any real reasons to buy a 360 on day 1 over a PS2 unless you were an early adopter or had the original Xbox. Ultimately the 360 benefited from the year headstart over the PS3, the lower price point and exclusive software which caused it to pick up some steam later in the gen (+Kinect) but early on it was overshadowed by the Wii and the Xbox brand wasn't at a point where people would buy it day 1 just yet.
Ultimately the PS4 is at a comfortable position and will continue quite easily on its current trajectory. Give it a price cut this year and whilst I don't think it'll get back up to the PS2 line (at the 36 month point) I do believe it can get close. One issue at the moment is competition from the Xbox brand as to how well it sells during the holiday or throughout 2016 as Microsoft have been very aggressive on pricing and marketing in order to drive sales of their own system and a lot of 360 owners will obviously consider the Xbox One as their next console when they look to buy. There has been a measurable effect shown where some consumers have purchased an Xbox One over a PS4 due to price and marketing. In the PS2 era Sony overcame this by being aggressive on pricing and marketing in order to create a large lead in the US at the expense of margin but make back the money through software sales. This gen the US is still important, but not as important so Sony are choosing to play safe by creating high margin on both hardware and software and the strategy, whilst different, is paying off as Sony remain the cumulative sales leader in the US but also the worldwide market by a good margin which is the ultimate goal for Sony.
The PS4 is set to be the leader this gen but what will really matter is the extension tools used by Sony later in this gen to keep the PS4 selling and whether it actually can defy standard trends like the 360 did or make in roads into the next gen market like the PS2 did.