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NPD Sales Results for June 2015 [Up2: Batman, Splatoon]

Javin98

Banned
The only thing I don't like about Zhuge is that he's almost too good. :p

Anyway, thanks for this again. Because the XB1 is relatively close to the PS4 in sales, I highly doubt the PS4 will beat the LTD of the PS2 in the US, or even the Wii. However, I do think it's possible that the PS4 will reach 35 million or more before it is discontinued. I think the XB1 will trail the PS4 by 5 million units or so.
 
Don't forget that the more PS4s they sell then the more games, PS+ subscriptions, accessories etc. they sell as well.

And a good price drop would move a lot of PS4s.

You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.
 

TomShoe

Banned
All sound reasoning but then why hasn't Xbox cut their price again? They need a price cut more than the PS4, So why would you play into their hands by cutting first?

At that point, they could be losing money on every Xbox sold, and wouldn't be able to make it up through other means. I say 'could' because I don't know how much it costs to produce an Xbox One. I remember a few reports saying it cost ~$395. This was ~1.5 years ago so it's most likely lower at this ponit. Also keep in mind that if they dropped it again, this would devalue the console further, and would condition consumers into waiting for the price to drop again, since it keeps dropping so frequently.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Europe is growing and becoming an important market for Sony.

The PlayStation 4 is growing at a fast rate there compared to previous PlayStation consoles.

Yeah I know Germany has been doing extremely well - more interesting market than Japan for consoles is these days - in terms of console growth. I meant YOY growth (2014-2015) for Europe overall. The U.S has had some months where Sony has been down YOY this year if I recall.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.

What's your opinion on what we'll see from Microsoft this holiday season? No need to be specific, just a general opinion will do.
 

BadWolf

Member
You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.

But it does make sense for them, just like it made sense with PS2.

There is no reason to wait for sales to stagnate before making a move.

They have to drop the price either way in preparation for the Morpheus launch.

Also, that new PS4 model will be cheaper for them to manufacture.
 
Yeah! And Zhuge is just 20 years old. Imagine him with 40 years on his back. Endless possibilities

All hail Zhuge, the Sales Savant!

bow_down1.gif
 

g0dofwar

Banned
Sorry, missed this. Hopefully you saw my other updates on the last couple of pages.

What I've done is created a chart which shows how the PlayStation 4 is performing against all home consoles in the USA that have sold more than 40 million units to date. The PlayStation 2 still remains the cumulative sales leader in the USA with approximately 46.4 million consoles sold.

6_zpsxlqn4ozm.jpg


What this shows is that the PlayStation 4 got off to a great start with high opening sales due to the pent up demand from a long gen 7. Early adopters and core gamers were keen to get their hands on the latest PlayStation console and stores were sold out even into early 2014. However, we are now at a point where Sony have got the supply chain exactly how they want it and are producing as many consoles as they need with ease in order to satisfy demand.

The PlayStation 2 launched after the huge success of the original PlayStation, early adopters and gamers got their hands on the system early on which faced production and supply issues for quite some time. As it was the only next generation system on the market at the time there was little to no competition and the price was the same as the PS1 launch price. Sony drove PlayStation 2 sales through excellent software and through great deals and price cuts during this period. Ultimately the momentum that PS4 and PS2 have had has been fairly similar however the PS2 did have better holiday sales due to no competition in year one (where as PS4 had the Xbox One cheaper) and the reason the PS2 starts to pull away at month 20 is because of the $100 price cut.

The Nintendo Wii was a product that resonated both with early adopters/core gamers but also with the casual market as well. Whilst the PS2 saw more casuals adopt later in the life cycle the Wii saw them all at the front door from day 1. In fact Nintendo couldn't make enough Wii's to keep up with demand so that line could be a lot steeper. The PS4 has not yet got to a point where it will see mass casual adoption and so in the first 36 months I do not see the PS4 getting anywhere near that Wii line. Of course the Wii does have a drop in sales later in the gen where the PS4 can pull back a bit.

The Xbox 360 started off slow.... in fact the console actually sold a bit worse compared to the original Xbox for a bit. The PS2 was the main competitor and there weren't any real reasons to buy a 360 on day 1 over a PS2 unless you were an early adopter or had the original Xbox. Ultimately the 360 benefited from the year headstart over the PS3, the lower price point and exclusive software which caused it to pick up some steam later in the gen (+Kinect) but early on it was overshadowed by the Wii and the Xbox brand wasn't at a point where people would buy it day 1 just yet.

Ultimately the PS4 is at a comfortable position and will continue quite easily on its current trajectory. Give it a price cut this year and whilst I don't think it'll get back up to the PS2 line (at the 36 month point) I do believe it can get close. One issue at the moment is competition from the Xbox brand as to how well it sells during the holiday or throughout 2016 as Microsoft have been very aggressive on pricing and marketing in order to drive sales of their own system and a lot of 360 owners will obviously consider the Xbox One as their next console when they look to buy. There has been a measurable effect shown where some consumers have purchased an Xbox One over a PS4 due to price and marketing. In the PS2 era Sony overcame this by being aggressive on pricing and marketing in order to create a large lead in the US at the expense of margin but make back the money through software sales. This gen the US is still important, but not as important so Sony are choosing to play safe by creating high margin on both hardware and software and the strategy, whilst different, is paying off as Sony remain the cumulative sales leader in the US but also the worldwide market by a good margin which is the ultimate goal for Sony.

The PS4 is set to be the leader this gen but what will really matter is the extension tools used by Sony later in this gen to keep the PS4 selling and whether it actually can defy standard trends like the 360 did or make in roads into the next gen market like the PS2 did.

Thanks we are lucky to have you in this thread.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
lol

Sony said they're planning to sell more PS4's and make less money. That means price drop.

It's not that simple haha.

There are so many other factors and costs you have to take on board, for example, Sony could be investing more in other areas of the business/products, there could be unfavourable exchange rates, there could be write offs, there could be external issues and factors at play.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Price drops boots only last so long.

So what is the point of dropping the price when it is still doing well?

What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.

Heh... we'll see. And you're right, a price drop does work both ways. It's all about how seriously they value the U.S market, momentum and the competition. Obviously their internal estimations vs. reality come January. Will they risk another holiday at $50 again? They could but that takes into assumption that MS will not bleed to $299 for a truly momentous shift. Interesting times ahead. I think there is a real chance MS could capitalize (drop $50 more) if it has confirmation of Morpheus coming this Spring.
 

TomShoe

Banned
You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.

It'll be nearly 2 years this holiday. The opportunity costs will be much higher if they go into this holiday without dropping. If a consumer purchases a PS4, at least Sony has the ability to sell them software and accessories to make up a hardware loss if there is one. If said customer purchases an Xbox instead, that money is gone, converted into resources their competitors can use against them.
 
What's your opinion on what we'll see from Microsoft this holiday season? No need to be specific, just a general opinion will do.

The return of the seasonal bundles with 2 games included like they did back in 2009:

large_48_51iChsx9RpL.jpg


Clear communication of value "Two free games included!" with a push on the backwards compatibility. My guess at least.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
The return of the seasonal bundles with 2 games included like they did back in 2009:

large_48_51iChsx9RpL.jpg


Clear communication of value "Two free games included!" with a push on the backwards compatibility. My guess at least.

Yep, I can see that happening with a couple of retailers going over and beyond that deal by offering additional extras or gift cards etc... to encourage purchases at their stores.

I do agree with what you say about the PS4 as well but I do think we will see some sort of price drop on the PS4 this year, whether it's just the standard model or a bundle I do think we'll see something lower than $399.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if it did stay at $399 with some holiday bundle offering a couple of games and PS Plus.
 
There is no reason to wait for sales to stagnate before making a move.

They have to drop the price either way in preparation for the Morpheus launch.

Also, that new PS4 model will be cheaper for them to manufacture.

Good points. Are there signs of stagnation? I'm not seeing them. I agree with you on Morpheus, but we're not there yet. When that launches? Sure, I can see some price shifting around that. And yes, the new model may be cheaper to manufacture, but why not just take that savings to the bottom line if velocities remain strong?

It's all about how seriously they value the U.S market, momentum and the competition. Obviously their internal estimations vs. reality come January.

I'm not sure they'd see themselves as losing momentum in the US. And it wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that they continue to track ahead of their internal goals (although I have no idea either way). A year from now? Sure, can see some moving. Just can't see it for 2015. Maybe I'm wrong.

It'll be nearly 2 years this holiday. The opportunity costs will be much higher if they go into this holiday without dropping. If a consumer purchases a PS4, at least Sony has the ability to sell them software and accessories to make up a hardware loss if there is one. If said customer purchases an Xbox instead, that money is gone, converted into resources their competitors can use against them.

Granted. But you can entice purchase by adding value just as well as you can by dropping price. Adding additional games to the bundles, doing the custom limited edition bundles, or even doing something like adding PSN funds (or like Zhuge mentions PS+) to the bundles will all do the same thing without eroding the price point.

Just saying, everyone's focused on dropping the price. It's much better for a 1st party to increase the perceived consumer value (because a $60 value to the consumer pack in game really only costs 1st party a fraction of that).

$299 or $349?

$349 would be my guess. Could be wrong.
 
Don't forget that the more PS4s they sell then the more games, PS+ subscriptions, accessories etc. they sell as well. It's a give and take.

And a good price drop would move a lot of PS4s.

Agreed, and the rate of PS+ uptake is significantly higher than PS3 days at basically half of all users.

It's a tight balancing act that I'm sure causes a lot of debates at Sony HQ.

But if I was a Sony suit I'd keep the price where it is for maximum revenue squeezing, while relying on co marketing and retailer promotions in US to keep the PS4 going through 2014. When your product is hot it's hot.
Talking globally

Edit: Meant 2015. Whatyearisit.gif
 

Papacheeks

Banned
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.

I really don't think a 299 price drop is in Microsoft's ballpark this year. If it does happen it will be retailer specific not wide spread.

They lost a lot of money on the price drop last year, that was not offset by huge numbers in software.

Plus the drop they had after Christmas hurt them. I see them doing what they've been doing, and bundling software with it like gears of war ultimate, Tomb Raider, and Halo 5.
 

3rdbass

Banned
You have to sell a lot of games and accessories to make up for that price drop. And you're not just giving the price drop to people who would only buy the system with a drop, you're also giving a price drop to everyone who would have bought one at full price.

A price drop works against a company as much as it works for it. Just don't see how a 2015 drop makes any sense for them.

They'll put together a holiday hardware bundle with 2 included games (rather than just one) way before they'll drop the price.
Well since Sony stated in their financial reports that they expect a big increase in sales of the game division for this fiscal year with lower net profit it can only mean a price cut soon(probably announced in Paris) as sales are flat year over year for the PS4 in the USA. I'm sure Europe is similar as far as flat sales year over year.

I'm surprised people keeping disregarding this when they say the PS4 can't have a price cut. Not too many financial minded people in this thread.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Granted. But you can entice purchase by adding value just as well as you can by dropping price. Adding additional games to the bundles, doing the custom limited edition bundles, or even doing something like adding PSN funds (or like Zhuge mentions PS+) to the bundles will all do the same thing without eroding the price point.

Just saying, everyone's focused on dropping the price. It's much better for a 1st party to increase the perceived consumer value (because a $60 value to the consumer pack in game really only costs 1st party a fraction of that).

Good post here^
(and not just because you mentioned me)

The PS4 hasn't seen momentum drop and this June proves that. As I said in an earlier post as well the supply chain is exactly how Sony want it and they are able to satisfy current demand. Whilst that demand isn't growing it's not dropping either and so when you look at it from Sony's perspective then a price cut isn't really needed as such. Especially when a bundle with additional extras that benefit the consumer can sell just as well.

In my personal opinion though I do think Sony will do something this year on the price point in order to create additional opportunity for themselves and to boost sales into the new year ready for Morpheus launch.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
The discussion has gone well.

We have strong proponents of staying put.

We have strong proponents of bold price cutting competition.

November can't come sooner.
 

Loudninja

Member
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.
You really think they are going to drop the price again for a short term boost?

Isnt that bad if they need to keep doing this?
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
You really think they are going to drop the price again for a short term boost?

Depends on what MS sees as their cycle this gen. 5 years vs. 7-8. That's if they plan to not exit the industry and release another console. So much hangs in the balance of what your competition does too... some things like Morpheus can present both a challenge and an opportunity.
 
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.
Nothing. Dropping the price of the Xbone yet again in the same year will just dig their own grave for a short-term sales boost, Microsoft can have the holidays, they still won't catch up and then the console will not sell at $350 in 2016 anymore, Sony doesn't have to do anything.
 

kswiston

Member
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.

You are crazy if you think that Microsoft is going to drop the price of the XB1 another $50 AND bundle in their biggest exclusive game for free on top of that. I could see $349 Halo 5 bundle with a digital copy of one of their older games for Black Friday. That would be more than aggressive enough for the holiday season.

Also, PS4 isn't going to go without a price drop forever.
 

Ricky_R

Member
I don't think Sony will wait again for a beating in pricing and deals and potentially risk losing major chucks of market-share and momentum. Sure they have the nice co-marketing deals but MS has been able to navigate around those. The one that hurt them bad was Destiny. All things considered both have quality content to market this holiday.

Sony will drop price. It's just a matter of how much ($50 or a $100) and how the promotion is handled.

I also believe they will cut the price this year, but I also believe that they might try to extend that price cut to next year where it will go beautifully with their biggest franchises (providing that they all release next year). Just imagine a $100 price cut the same year that Uncharted 4, GOW4 and GT7 release.
 
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.

Other people have already said something similar to this, but you can only cut the price (and devalue your product) so much. There's a floor, not a bottomless pit, and if you're falling to the floor too fast, then you're in trouble.
 
The battleground is the U.S.

Europe etc...we already know Sony is ahead big time (and the competition has unofficially given up) - the competition only competes in the UK due to cultural trends shared with the U.S for its consumer base. It's like presidential elections. No one cares about California or Texas per say. The elections are focused on Ohio and Florida.....the swing states.

Sony is still in the drivers seat, no doubt. But they have to play their cards right (price drop), in the U.S. If MS wants market-share, Sony's job is to make it as hard as possible for them to get it aka bleed more.

I hope there's a new junior alt ready for action calling himself 'Microsoft Hanging Chad' made especially for this post scenario.
 

chalex010

Banned
I was referencing this graph:
tEJov63.png


FFXIV expansion should have hit there if it has a good use base, b/c like most MMO expansions it would have been all digital upgrades.

Hard to say as the chart is console only. For FFXIV (and XI before it) I've always personally purchased physical upgrades and usually for the PC as the the game being cross-play usually unlocks content on all systems you play on. I believe the expansions collectors editions sold out pretty quick, didn't they?

I think online only games still have a disproportionate amount of people who go physical for whatever reason.
 
Other people have already said something similar to this, but you can only cut the price (and devalue your product) so much. There's a floor, not a bottomless pit, and if you're falling to the floor too fast, then you're in trouble.

I know right.

Look at Nintendo who've held firm on the Wii U price even though they are being routinely being embarrassed in sales, but refuse to devalue the console on the market.

Slightly different situation compared to Microsoft but I think the comparison is applicable.
 
I also believe they will cut the price this year, but I also believe that they might try to extend that price cut to next year where it will go beautifully with their biggest franchises (providing that they all release next year). Just imagine a $100 price cut the same year that Uncharted 4, GOW4 and GT7 release.

Price cut for the holiday 2015 would sell more consoles now and create a larger user base for all their exclusives in 2016. Also don't think GOW is 2016.
 

SgtCobra

Member
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.
Sony will have their own bundles and retailer specific deals. Sony won't let Microsoft clean house this fall.
Remember they're having some big third party partnerships this fall which are bigger than Halo itself.
 

Elios83

Member
You really think they are going to drop the price again for a short term boost?

Isnt that bad if they need to keep doing this?

It has been two years since launch, it's not like they're reacting to a month of bad sales :p
They can't go on forever at 399$, that audience is becoming saturated. With all the great games being released this year they're losing sales, instead of growing they're basically just trying to stay flat yoy offsetting price saturation declines with boosts provided by big games. That's a missed opportunity.
They need to expand and grow their business regardless of the competition.

Btw the hints about Sony dropping the price are really all over the place.
*Expected sales growth with less profits
*New PS4 model with reduced manufacturing costs already introduced in the market.
*Shift from a single SKU to dual SKU strategy, 1TB option needed to create profitable value bundles.
*Precedents with their own past strategies including PS3 in 2009 where they cut the base price from 399$ to 299$ for the 120GB model and introduced a 250GB model with games included to keep the price higher.
*Laser focused Paris Game Show conference being scheduled at the end of October at the expense of their traditional Gamescom conference, perfectly timed for the beginning of the holiday season and to introduce promotions, taking notes from what MS did last year.

We might speculate on how much they're gonna cut but the price cut is happening.
 

BadWolf

Member
Sony will have their own bundles and retailer specific deals. Sony won't let Microsoft clean house this fall.
Remember they're having some big third party partnerships this fall which are bigger than Halo itself.

Doesn't the Paris Games Week conference coincide with Halo 5's launch day?

A PS4 price drop during that conference would be such a giant F U to MS lol.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Price drops boots only last so long.

So what is the point of dropping the price when it is still doing well?

Price drops boost should have a permanent effect on the baseline. A $300 system will sell more than a $400 system on any given week. With your logic why didn't MS keep the XB1 at $500 if the boost is only temporary? Because they are now selling 150-300k/month instead of 50k.
 
Well since Sony stated in their financial reports that they expect a big increase in sales of the game division for this fiscal year with lower net profit it can only mean a price cut soon(probably announced in Paris) as sales are flat year over year for the PS4 in the USA. I'm sure Europe is similar as far as flat sales year over year.

I'm surprised people keeping disregarding this when they say the PS4 can't have a price cut.

Lots of ways to get to lower net profit outside of adjusting price.

It's an option, yes. But any increase to spending on the bottom half of the P&L lowers margin just as much as topline reduction.

Not saying it can't have a price cut. Sure it can. But there are other ways of increasing sales at the expense of margin outside of price cuts.

Not too many financial minded people in this thread.

lol

Doesn't the Paris Games Week conference coincide with Halo 5's launch day?

A PS4 price drop during that conference would be such a giant F U to MS lol.

Is it really? That would be really fun. If that's the case, I hope they do decide to throw a drop on just for kicks. Competition can be entertaining.
 
Yes. It's bad if they do that.

I don't see MS dropping the price again this year, they have Halo 5 coming out.

There will be no official price drop I guess, but Xbox will be cheaper all around in promos here and there.
For consumers it will be the same in the end, 299 will happen.
 

Percy

Banned
What's Sony going to do when Microsoft inevitably drops the Xbone to $299 with a Halo 5 pack in this holiday? They got creamed last holiday when the Xbone had a $50 price advantage, it's going to be a slaughter with a $100 price advantage.

Certainly possible, but seeing as any gains MS makes during the holidays will likely evaporate again once 2016 rolls around it seems like it would make more sense for Sony to sit tight and make as much money as possible rather than engage in a price war of attrition with MS they probably couldn't win and would ultimately seem like it'd result in no real benefit to them in the end.

I'm not really seeing an official PS4 price cut coming this year tbh.

I hope there's a new junior alt ready for action calling himself 'Microsoft Hanging Chad' made especially for this post scenario.

lol

Price drops boost should have a permanent effect on the baseline. A $300 system will sell more than a $400 system on any given week.

XB1 has been cheaper than PS4 for the better part of a year now. How many weeks has it managed to sell more in that time?
 

samar11

Member
It has been two years since launch, it's not like they're reacting to a month of bad sales :p
They can't go on forever at 399$, that audience is becoming saturated. With all the great games being released this year they're losing sales, instead of growing they're basically just trying to stay flat yoy offsetting price saturation declines with boosts provided by big games. That's a missed opportunity.
They need to expand and grow their business regardless of the competition.

Btw the hints about Sony dropping the price are really all over the place.
*Expected sales growth with less profits
*New PS4 model with reduced manufacturing costs already introduced in the market.
*Shift from a single SKU to dual SKU strategy, 1TB option needed to create profitable value bundles.
*Precedents with their own past strategies including PS3 in 2009 where they cut the base price from 399$ to 299$ for the 120GB model and introduced a 250GB model with games included to keep the price higher.
*Laser focused Paris Game Show conference being scheduled at the end of October at the expense of their traditional Gamescom conference, perfectly timed for the beginning of the holiday season and to introduce promotions, taking notes from what MS did last year.

We might speculate on how much they're gonna cut but the price cut is happening.

Agree on price cut
 
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