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Circana October 2024: #1 Black Ops 6 #2 Sparking Zero #3 Silent Hill 2 #5 Metaphor ReFantazio #6 DA: Veilguard; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, XBS #2 Units + Rev

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Case in point


And this clown world crap for a parody site. One can argue that a lot of their parody is non parody in the lunacy out there, but I digress.

tIdAl0a.png
 

Humdinger

Gold Member
Is there any indication/confirmation that this also resulted in an increase in subscribers for the same time period?

Nope. Mat referred to a "subscription spending boost," i.e., revenue. I believe only MS has access to GP sub numbers.

Also, as Elios pointed out earlier, MS raised the prices across all their GP subs, so that 16% (or whatever) y-o-y increase in revenue might be attributable in large part simply to an increase in GP rates, rather than to an increase in subs. Not sure.
 
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xenosys

Member
If folks go to bluesky for non-political reasons then that's fine, but I'm not going to pretend it isn't left leaning when it absolutely is.

They reported a 500% increase in sign-ups the moment the moment the US election results came through, so it's definitely political.

This isn't people organically moving over, it's a concerted effort. To be fair to Piscatella though, he did move months ago before it became fashionable.
 
When you have increased the subscription price by an average of 25% in the last year...... maintaining the number of subscriptions is already good news. If you also manage to expand a bit, that would be an achievement.

It remains to be seen if or how much. With this data, determining the real % in subscriptions is not possible because it only talks about income and we do not have the real %.
Nah. If CoD is the main driver then the reason is a bypass from GP Standard to GP Ultimate. That's a 100% revenue increase for anyone swapping tiers to try CoD.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
They reported a 500% increase in sign-ups the moment the moment the US election results came through, so it's definitely political.

This isn't people organically moving over, it's a concerted effort. To be fair to Piscatella though, he did move months ago before it became fashionable.

Yeah, he's tried to get away from X before and I suspect he is left-leaning himself based on some of his past tweets. He went to linkedin for a bit and ended up coming back. Maybe this time it will be permanent, but when your business has an interest being engaged in social media, X is going to be the more lucrative option. Time will tell.
 
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Unknown?

Member
I don't care about politics when i'm on social media and that's literally why i left twitter. Most of my algorithm was crap for 1 or 2 years. I'm not even american and trump was everywhere. Elon as well. Comment sections are bot-infested and when they are not, it's unrelated comments everywhere. That wasn't the case just 2 years ago (or 3?)

Twitter is a mess for a while now (1 or 2 years) and it's not getting any better.

Bluesky is clean af. It's what Twitter was like 10 years ago.
What?! Twitter was always bot infested except before it got huge.
 
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If Game Pass is, for example, 32% of the total revenue of ALL services (PSN, Switch Online, EA, Ubi, etc) and that combined revenue jumped 16% exclusively because of Game Pass then its revenue grew 50%. Again, an example.
But not the case though. GP is the primary driver( not to mention price increase and restructuring that probably caused everyone with console gp to sub to gp ultimate) not the exclusive driver. And if I am not wrong, ps plus also had a price increase, so even if that is responsible for just 6%, gp will be responsible for just 10%.

Personally, I think the result doesn't seem favourable for Xbox based on current data.
 

Elios83

Member
It's not a true indicator, but it's certainly not speculative, or at least less speculative than determining based on that data only 16% for Gamepass
as was being indicated.




The comparison is about last year's total revenues versus this year's.

That is:

1: It's not the 16% on Gamepass YOY as you said (that is what I intended to correct you). It's about total subscription revenues. The base of that 16% is much, much higher.

2: That 16% is mainly thanks to Gamepass (10 up to-15%?).

3: Definitely the % increase in Gamepass revenues is much higher than 16% by pure logic.

And yes, the price increase can come into play there, and also the drop in revenues in other subscriptions that already last year also fell or were flat vs Gamepass. We do not know that information, but the basis on which it is applied is the same.

Again my point was just that it's an initial indicator.
It can't be used as it is for multiple reasons (we don't know how other services performed yoy, Gamepass had price increases and changes in its structure) but the picture we're seeing with this data is kinda clear.

1) Xbox hardware continues its nosedive regardless of COD on Gamepass. Given that Xbox is a platform that should be tied to Gamepass subscriptions and Series S was supposed to be the cheap entry gate for Gamepass, this is a whole failed strategy here, even after COD.

2)Sony is a big winner, they now spend less money on marketing, they're seeing sales on their platform increasing instead of people migrating to other platforms where it's cheaper to have access to COD and I'm also reading they're now taking the standard 30% cut on each copy sold while under the previous marketing deal they had a 20% cut.

3)The data point on subscription spending given by NPD, within its limits, doesn't suggest any particular turning point for Gamepass in terms of subscriptions. These percentages differences are modest.


The impression (more than an impression) is that Microsoft has just killed their old revenues stream on Xbox as the main accomplishment here.
 
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Humdinger

Gold Member
If Game Pass is, for example, 32% of the total revenue of ALL services (PSN, Switch Online, EA, Ubi, etc) and that combined revenue jumped 16% exclusively because of Game Pass then its revenue grew 50%. Again, an example.

Thanks, that makes sense. I was having trouble following what was being said there. I've corrected some earlier posts that contained speculation based on my misunderstanding.
 
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ProtoByte

Weeb Underling
These are two big surprises.

Sega was already boasting about the success of Metaphor but it's becoming obvious now why.
The fact is that it's working well on Xbox.
Rankings mean nothing. We know that actual software sales on Xbox are down massively, so being at number 5, 2 or 1 on Xbox rankings for one month means jack shit.

I also forgot about the price increase that GP had compared to last year.
So basically this 16% increase in subscrition spending points to an even worse scenario.

“Did COD increase Game Pass subscribers” is the wrong question, IMO. The real, meaningful, question is: “Did COD increase recurring Game Pass subscribers?”

Most people I know these days don’t keep a constant Game Pass sub anymore unless they already had years stacked. They wait for a game they’re interested in, sub for a month, play it that month until they beat it or are bored of it, and cancel. Then they don’t resub until another game they’re interested in shows up.

Game Pass’ success depends on people staying subscribed. A temporary bump in subscription numbers means nothing if most (or all) of them disappear in a month or two. Someone who subbed to GP Ultimate for one or two months will still pay significantly less than if they had bought the game outright at launch. That’s not a bright long term financial strategy.
Given the ~20% increase on Gamepass (varies depending on which tier), and the lack of hardware sales bump, and cutting into sales (Piscatella will obfuscate otherwise), I would bet that it is not making anyone at Microsoft happy. It didn't work with Starfield, and it's not working with COD. Both games that spent the majority of their dev time out of the terrible influence of Microsoft's pipelines.

I do not believe this is viable long term. Even as a 3rd party publisher.
 

Humdinger

Gold Member
[...] cutting into sales (Piscatella will obfuscate otherwise)

Yeah, that bugs me. He says CoD "did not appear to result in massive cannibalization of sales." Well, that means it did, in fact, result in cannibalization of sales - just not whatever Mat considers "massive." He seems to have an agenda to minimize the fact that GP cuts into actual sales. Maybe because he insisted in the past that it did not? I haven't followed him closely enough to know.
 
Are you really gonna accuse people of corporate cheerleading? You just told me like a month ago that it was a bad thing that games like Monster Hunter and Persona no longer being defacto PS exclusives was a bad thing and never explained your reasoning. You can be a corporate cheerleader, just own it bro.

A bad thing for Sony/SIE, not customers.

Potentially.

After all, more platforms supported Day 1 means less resources to optimize across the board, it gets spread thin. Which can negatively impact quality, which can hurt customers.

So, multiplatform can have its downsides, just like exclusives can, in theory. But no one talks about the multiplat downsides because apparently that'd be anti-consumer to do :/

It's not a true indicator, but it's certainly not speculative, or at least less speculative than determining based on that data only 16% for Gamepass
as was being indicated.

I just wanna know where this big sub growth is at, that's all. After all, it's COD, and a welcomed one after the joke that was last year's. Like others have said it's the biggest mover for Game Pass growth Microsoft has so I'm expecting some actual numbers like a new milestone announcement.

They gave milestone announcements during 2021 and early 2022 when the big games they had to push the service were much smaller comparatively; even taking away the lockdown factor (since it doesn't exist anymore, thank goodness), shouldn't we be expecting some type of subscriber milestone that Microsoft can provide a direct number to, instead of these highly context-sensitive percentages.

SegaSeriesS?

That name alone tells you this is a man who loves suffering.

They make me ashamed to admit my love for SEGA publicly.
 
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Darsxx82

Member
Rankings mean nothing. We know that actual software sales on Xbox are down massively, so being at number 5, 2 or 1 on Xbox rankings for one month means jack shit.

In the case of the US, Xbox game sales have remained fairly decent and stable. The ranking may not mean anything, but it usually depends on the releases of that month and the games that accompany it. And this is a month where competition was strong, so a game of Metaphor's characteristics and one like Undisputed achieving those positions among big franchises is certainly a good sign.
Again my point was just that it's an initial indicator.
It can't be used as it is for multiple reasons (we don't know how other services performed yoy, Gamepass had price increases and changes in its structure) but the picture we're seeing with this data is kinda clear.

1) Xbox hardware continues its nosedive regardless of COD on Gamepass. Given that Xbox is a platform that should be tied to Gamepass subscriptions and Series S was supposed to be the cheap entry gate for Gamepass, this is a whole failed strategy here, even after COD.

2)Sony is a big winner, they now spend less money on marketing, they're seeing sales on their platform increasing instead of people migrating to other platforms where it's cheaper to have access to COD and I'm also reading they're now taking the standard 30% cut on each copy sold while under the previous marketing deal they had a 20% cut.

3)The data point on subscription spending given by NPD, within its limits, doesn't suggest any particular turning point for Gamepass in terms of subscriptions. These percentages differences are modest.


The impression (more than an impression) is that Microsoft has just killed their old revenues stream on Xbox as the main accomplishment here.
I understand your opinion here, and I can even agree with several conclusions. But that's not what I was pointing out, I was just correcting the statement you made about the 16%.

It's clear that there isn't enough data to draw conclusions, but there is enough to understand that the increase in Gamepass revenue is greater than that 16% that was applied to the total of existing subscription services (Gamepass could be 30-35%?). What's more, at the highest margins of that data, the increase in Gamepass revenue could be up to 50+%. Which would already be figures to take into account in a discussion.

I suppose the answer in one sense or another could see light in the next Q2 or simply in MS's decision to launch or not the next COD 2025 day one on gamepass.
 
Xbox going 3rd party makes dollars & sense Ms is making money either way off steam Sony’s & Nintendo i do wonder what the future of gp is looking like rn phil might get jim ryand soon
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
A bad thing for Sony/SIE, not customers.

Potentially.

After all, more platforms supported Day 1 means less resources to optimize across the board, it gets spread thin. Which can negatively impact quality, which can hurt customers.

So, multiplatform can have its downsides, just like exclusives can, in theory. But no one talks about the multiplat downsides because apparently that'd be anti-consumer to do :/

So in other words you are cheerleading for the Sony corporation but somehow this is different than a person (on a different website no less) cheerleading for a different corporation. You were lamenting that PC made gains in the Japanese market because it’s bad for Sony, but now you are saying this isn’t bad for customers. Just be a cheerleader dude. There are plenty of you on here.
 

Brucey

Member
A bad thing for Sony/SIE, not customers.

Potentially.

After all, more platforms supported Day 1 means less resources to optimize across the board, it gets spread thin. Which can negatively impact quality, which can hurt customers.

So, multiplatform can have its downsides, just like exclusives can, in theory. But no one talks about the multiplat downsides because apparently that'd be anti-consumer to do :/



I just wanna know where this big sub growth is at, that's all. After all, it's COD, and a welcomed one after the joke that was last year's. Like others have said it's the biggest mover for Game Pass growth Microsoft has so I'm expecting some actual numbers like a new milestone announcement.

They gave milestone announcements during 2021 and early 2022 when the big games they had to push the service were much smaller comparatively; even taking away the lockdown factor (since it doesn't exist anymore, thank goodness), shouldn't we be expecting some type of subscriber milestone that Microsoft can provide a direct number to, instead of these highly context-sensitive percentages.



They make me ashamed to admit my love for SEGA publicly.
PS5 is going to be well into the 100 million unit range before the gen is done. Maybe 150 million. That's where you focus your resources. They buy games. Series gen will be lucky to hit 30 million.
 

XXL

Member
I'm traveling right now. I'm at a truck stop. Lol. I can't wait to read this when I'm done driving.
 

Fess

Member
What's happening this fall is them testing the waters and see if they have to give up on Gamepass or not.
Realistically, can they do that? Can they go back at this point?
Xbox as a console is kinda dead but they still get the monthly tick from current subscribers. I don’t think they would get enough people to go back to purchase games to get the money back from lost GP subscribers if the service is closed. And making their new ”This is an Xbox” platform less appealing by not having a games library would turn them into Stadia and they would lose even more customers.
 
Yeah, he's tried to get away from X before and I suspect he is left-leaning himself based on some of his past tweets. He went to linkedin for a bit and ended up coming back. Maybe this time it will be permanent, but when your business has an interest being engaged in social media, X is going to be the more lucrative option. Time will tell.
X has become a shit show regardless of your politics, the whole thing is and always has been a waste of time and most of us know that and still use it anyway lol.
 

Woopah

Member
Xbox making most of their money as a 3rd party publisher on Sony consoles.

Imagine saying this 20 years ago, lmao

82% is honestly crazy. The game is also on PC for fucks sake.

82% is madness. Gamepass completely cannibalized sales on Xbox and PC.

I wonder if the overall sales are up or down.

If it boosted subscription spending it must not have been by that much, otherwise Microsoft would've came out and made a more bold & direct claim to such. I'm just actually more surprised that more PS owners decided to buy the game vs. in the past.

Like, I'm of two minds on that. On the one hand, it shows that PlayStation is absolutely the preferred platform for COD; 82% while including Steam sales is massive. On the other hand, it's like PlayStation gamers want to subsidize Xbox gamers getting the game "for free" in Game Pass. Not the casual or mainstream ones; they don't care about this stuff and probably know nothing about MS & ABK now (or forgot since mainstream news hasn't talked about it in months).

But the hardcore ones who've been making fun of Game Pass and apparently were so against MS buying ABK? They're still out here buying the damn game, they're basically saying "Good job, Microsoft. Take my money!". These usually be some of the most toxic console warriors, too; they talk one thing but are the first to act like hypocrites. If you're a PS gamer who talked shit the past year or so about MS buying ABK, or Game Pass, and you went out and bought the new COD anyway, I think you need to be quiet. You're literally rewarding Microsoft and subsidizing Game Pass to exist.

Outside of that though, great placements for Sparking Zero and Silent Hill 2, especially the latter since it kinda shuts up the false narrative that exclusives don't sell well. Looks like as with multiplats, it always comes down to the game itself. Metaphor's done pretty well but I think the lack of Western marketing for it mentioning PS has hurt its sales; it only placed 7th on the PS charts while placing 8th on the Xbox ones. With multiplats like that, usually the PS ranking is quite higher relative the Xbox one. I think with Western marketing that actually could mention the PlayStation version, it would've beaten Undisputed and maybe even edged out Silent Hill 2 for the #3 spot overall in the month.

Although, there's also Jamboree. Frustrating that Nintendo doesn't share their digital numbers but with those included, I think Jamboree would definitely be in the Top 5. So, if Metaphor had more PS marketing, and Jamboree sales included digital, I think the Top 5 would've looked like:

1: COD BO6​
2: Dragon Ball Sparking Zero​
3: Metaphor​
4: Super Mario Jamboree​
5: Silent Hill 2​

with Jamboree just edging out Silent Hill 2.



Looks like PlayStation gamers really showed up for COD this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're up. Then again, wouldn't take a lot to beat MW3.



And by how much have those Game Pass subs grown? 1%? 5%? 10%? More?

There's no way to know and the fact Microsoft hasn't given a firm number suggests that the growth wasn't very strong. They might've already started seeing churn since the game's launch, so some of that growth will have been eroded.

They're lucking PlayStation owners came out in droves to buy the game because the overall numbers for BO6 would be pretty dismal without that.
It says "PlayStation platforms accounted for 82% of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 total console full game dollar sales volume during the October tracking period."

Are we sure the PC numbers are included in that ratio?
 

Well if COD day one on GamePass doesn't do it, nothing will.

Wonder how many of those people will keep their GP subs after 3 months for MS to recoup the full game price that's on Playstation. Short term good but long term its bad.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
X has become a shit show regardless of your politics, the whole thing is and always has been a waste of time and most of us know that and still use it anyway lol.

Always has been a shitty place to try and discuss things, I agree. Personally, I primarily use it for gaming news as that's typically where it all gets posted.
 
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Zacfoldor

Member
Always has been a shitty place to try and discuss things, I agree.
Well in depth discussion is for other types of social media like message forums, X is for bullhorning your opinion to a mass audience.

My guess is that Bluesky wants to be equivalent to X on bullhorning but to limit the actual people who can use it to those with approved thoughts only.

Metaphor sure deserved those sales though. I think everyone will slowly trickle back to x within 6 months.
 

Loomy

Banned
Boy, Veilguard really shat the bed with its release timing.

First I'm told that the game didn't get any noms because people didn't have time to play it between release and the end of the voting period.

Now I'm told that it didn't get any sales because it launched with only 2 days of sales figures.

Honestly, I think both of those things are excuses for a game that underperformed and is more actively disliked with every passing day, which will actually kill the IP for a decade or longer.
You misunderstand. It's not an excuse.

This data is reporting on sales between October 6th, and November 2nd. Veilguard released on October 31. That means they can only report on 3 of the 23 days the game has been out.

The game clearly didn't underperform at launch. The key takeaway is that after 3 days, it was 6th on Playstation, 3rd on Xbox, and 6th across the major storefronts. That's not bad, but it's also only 3 days. We'll find out in Novembers' sales report how it did post launch.
 
Well if COD day one on GamePass doesn't do it, nothing will.
Phil fuck around and found out.

their next 3 games (Indiana Jones, Avowed, and South of Midnight) are DOA (commercially speaking) not only because of Xbox as a platform but also because those games are not really setting the world on fire. Flight Simulator is not only an embarrassing release....but the norm for team green and gamer CEO Phil Spencer

Then we have dumbass Jez still trying to damage control the "No Red Line" statement from Phil....🤡🎪🤡

CoD didn't relieve the pressure from MS´s gaming Division. What Now?

I guess PS5 will have to become the platform where MS puts its marketing budget until every game comes day and date...isn't the next DooM game confirmed to be day and date anyway? 🤔

What is the breaking point for the remaining Xbox Shills/Warriors/hardcore fans? Do they will be able to endure another round of layoffs and studio closures, or is the announcement of Halo, Forza Horizon, Gears or Starfield the true last offense that community will finally take?...either way, Xbox is One and Done
 
I don't care about politics when i'm on social media and that's literally why i left twitter. Most of my algorithm was crap for 1 or 2 years. I'm not even american and trump was everywhere. Elon as well. Comment sections are bot-infested and when they are not, it's unrelated comments everywhere. That wasn't the case just 2 years ago (or 3?)

Twitter is a mess for a while now (1 or 2 years) and it's not getting any better.

Bluesky is clean af. It's what Twitter was like 10 years ago.
Bluesky is clean? You mean the beside the large amounts of CSAM that is. Both platforms are garbage.
 

Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire
October 2023's combined total of 759K is extremely close to the estimate of 770K. Also Matt Piscatella says for 2024 Switch is ahead of XBS in units by 1% which lines up nicely with the estimates i use from Installbase.

InstallBase estimates October 2024

PS5: 290k
XBS: 165K
NSW: 130k

October 2023 for comparison

PS5: 360k
NSW: 210k
XBS: 200K
Thanks! Gonna add the HW estimates from IB to the OP!
 

SpokkX

Member
This is why Xbox and PS consoles are so boring and are losing out to Steam

Always the same top 5 played games - nothing ever breaks through
 
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havoc00

Member
“Did COD increase Game Pass subscribers” is the wrong question, IMO. The real, meaningful, question is: “Did COD increase recurring Game Pass subscribers?”

Most people I know these days don’t keep a constant Game Pass sub anymore unless they already had years stacked. They wait for a game they’re interested in, sub for a month, play it that month until they beat it or are bored of it, and cancel. Then they don’t resub until another game they’re interested in shows up.

Game Pass’ success depends on people staying subscribed. A temporary bump in subscription numbers means nothing if most (or all) of them disappear in a month or two. Someone who subbed to GP Ultimate for one or two months will still pay significantly less than if they had bought the game outright at launch. That’s not a bright long term financial strategy.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
This is why Xbox and PS consoles are so boring and are losing out to Steam

Always the same top 5 played games - nothing ever breaks through

Top five on Steam doesn't change that much either. Games like CS 2, Dota 2, PubG, Rust, GTA V are typically there. Now includes Call of Duty which is also tops on console. Stalker 2 will probably break through on Xbox this month. No more/less boring than consoles, imo.
 

ProtoByte

Weeb Underling
Yeah, that bugs me. He says CoD "did not appear to result in massive cannibalization of sales." Well, that means it did, in fact, result in cannibalization of sales - just not whatever Mat considers "massive." He seems to have an agenda to minimize the fact that GP cuts into actual sales. Maybe because he insisted in the past that it did not? I haven't followed him closely enough to know.
You're correct. Piscatella is one of the original analysts who peddled the subscription hype. Like Microsoft, the most he would give would be vague percentages and rhetoric about growth without pointing out any of the clear weak spots. Then we find out, after 2 years of no numbers, that the real net of "Gamepass" subs decreased by the millions. Those 1 dollar deals were there for a reason.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Basically because Bluesky is a left leaning version of X and much more willing to censor what people post.

Bunch of softies.

They are afraid of that Diablo player

They’re all salty that Twitter stopped censoring people.


Y'all do realize all of your responses is the exact reason why people are starting to hate Twitter and are leaving right? It's like you guys don't understand it's just a social media application. But for some reason people are treating it as if it's the Yankees versus the Red Sox, the Celtics versus the Lakers, or Manchester United verse liverpool.

Nowadays people don't even care about the data or the information on social media, instead people would rather fight over Which social media app people are posting on. It's so stupid and it's so boring and wack.
 
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