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[maabus1999]

Japan has a culture of heavy public transportation use and limited big television use, so it's no wonder that that market favors both smartphones and dedicated handheld game console, although sales of the latter are lower than in the previous generation.

The US is very different. Home consoles will continue to sell well in the US.

But dedicated handheld game systems may be in a bit of trouble in both regions. In both regions it's tough to beat the convenience of a smartphone.

I can't speak for Europe.

Being the amount of money being made i n the US from apps dwarfs consoles not sure I can agree over the next 5 years. My wife, relatives, kids, in laws, etc... all play on tablets now since the quality is increasing. I and a few friends are the only ones who still like legacy systems. This would be completely anecdotal if it wasn't for the macro data showing its becoming true.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

These haven't hit mass market price points yet. Not even the Wii U.
Besides PS4 in particular is the highest selling console LTD isn't it? The only one that might have sold more is the original Wii.

Other consoles like PS2 and Wii were heavily constrained, 360 was too. You could say once we start seeing the big tittles, both XB1 and PS4 will start doing even better numbers, since they have been basically selling consoles out of simple "hype".

But I don't think neither will do PS2 LTD or Wii LTD numbers. What's worst I don't think all 3 consoles will do the same numbers of the las 3 consoles AT ALL.

 

[donny2112]

Eh you guys are coming up short on a few things.

3ds is closer to 100k

Eek. Not sure how we'd be that far off, if creamsugar's pie chart is correct. Is that the only one off by more than +/- 2K or so?

 

[AniHawk]

I hope I did it right this time.


LTD tie ratio comparisons:


Launch month:

XB1 tie ratio = 1.98
PS4 tie ratio = 1.89


Launch through January:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.71
PS4 tie ratio = 2.11

Launch through March:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.96
PS4 tie ratio = 2.33

Launch through May:

XB1 tie ratio = 3.18
PS4 tie ratio = 2.62

if i did my math right, i think this is the month where ps4 software overtakes xbox one software.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

For predictions:
PS4 - 195K
3DS - 87K
XB1 - 77K
WIIU - 61K (close to the 85% number and within reason for calling it an 85% increase, since this would be 86% increase; can't expect everyone to be as precise as a math guy )
360 - 57K
PS3 - 36K

So how exactly are points scored? I read this but apparently I'm too stupid to figure it out.

Let's say, for example, somebody predicted the PS4 to move 237k units and it only moved 195k units. How many points would that be worth?

 

[vinnygambini]

Eh you guys are coming up short on a few things.

3ds is closer to 100k

Praise Kirby.

Wonderful 101, minus a high-five?

 

[SwiftDeath]

if i did my math right, i think this is the month where ps4 software overtakes xbox one software.

Would make sense to me as MS didn't tout that at all in their "PR" quip tonight

 

[El-Pistolero]

Ok month overall for everyone.

June will be very interesting.

It seems that the only month that is considered interesting is the one where the Xbox One has some chance of ending up on top...
Every month is interesting, as the first year is vital to trigger the snowball effect that could carry either console throughout the gen.

 

[donny2112]

This figure is actually spot-on.

Good call.


Wii U:

+86% YOY
+27% MOM

Great. Just need to answer that 3DS question now. Does 3DS (87K) look okay to you?

 

[Aquamarine]

Is that a confirmation of my angle calculation, or are you just referencing that angle calculation?

Confirmation.


PS4 LTD: 3.3 million

Xbox One LTD: 2.7 million

Wii U LTD: 2.4 million

 

[sörine]

March was when supply started increasing dramatically, but still spotty. I recall many people not being able to get a 360 until May. Thereafter, it was pretty much universally available on store shelves without issue. We saw the same thing with PS4 sales being "available" in spotty amounts during the early part of the year, peaking in March when supply started to meet demand.

February is when it started breaking, March is when it broke completely, not May. 360 sales went up in June 2006 anyway to 277k, it's not like PS4's March peak.

 

[border]

I hope I did it right this time.


LTD tie ratio comparisons:


Launch month:

XB1 tie ratio = 1.98
PS4 tie ratio = 1.89


Launch through January:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.71
PS4 tie ratio = 2.11

Launch through March:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.96
PS4 tie ratio = 2.33

Launch through May:

XB1 tie ratio = 3.18
PS4 tie ratio = 2.62

Is it possible to get an LTD tie ratio for the PS Vita?

 

[TaiKH92]

Updated with LTD's

-----------------------------
PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 62k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

Poor Wii U but Mario Kart saved it from being in the 30k or 40k territory.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Just to get everything together.
Kirby Triple Deluxe was 41k last in April, so 97k in May.

Thanks here's it all updated together

Edit: See HERE for most up-to-date summary

Updated with more LTD's

-----------------------------
Hardware Monthly Sales -> Note: These are subject to change slightly
-----------------------------
PS4 ~ 195k
3DS ~ 92k???
XB1 ~ 77k
Wii U ~ 61k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k
-----------------------------
Mario Kart 8 ~ 377k, 6.6% from bundles
-----------------------------
Watch Dogs Sales Breakdown

PS4 ~ 46%
XB1 ~ 29%
360 ~ 14%
PS3 ~ 11%

Total > 1.25M
-----------------------------
Minecraft PS3 89k
-----------------------------
Wolfenstein New Order

PS4 ~ 41%
XB1 ~ 38%
360 ~ 13%
PS3 ~ 8%
-----------------------------
BL2 Vita Standalone ~27k
-----------------------------
LTD's

DKC: Tropical Freeze [WiU] 258k
Lightening Returns FF [PS3] 135k [360] 71k
PVZ: Garden Warfare [XB1] 257k [360] 150k
FF10HD [PS3] 259k
South Park SoT [360] 279k [PS3] 228k
Titanfall [XB1] 969k [360] 559k
Dark Souls 2 [360] 212k [PS3] 209k
Infamous SS [PS4] 617k
MGSV: Ground Zeroes [Total] 357k [PS4] >179k

Bravely Default [3DS] ~258k
Yoshi's New Island [3DS] ~256k
Kirby Triple Deluxe [3DS] ~138k
FF10HD [Vita] ~75k

 

[ZSaberLink]

This might mean absolutely nothing, but Mario Kart 8 is now #10 on Amazon's best sellers of 2014 only behind Titanfall (#9) in terms of games. The things above them all are the PS4, PSN/XBL gift cards, 360/PS4 controllers, and Thief Gold download (I understand this is $7, but what made it sell so much o.o?).

At least the game continues to sell well to 6% of the US market? (that was the %age for Amazon right?). It has been basically pinned to #1 for a while, especially since it got price dropped to $50.

 

[Aquamarine]

Thanks here's it all updated together

Updated with more LTD's

-----------------------------
PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

You weren't reading my last couple of posts, were you? :-(


Wii U:

+86% YOY
+27% MOM

Xbox One: 77K

-33% MOM

 

[Pain]

Other consoles like PS2 and Wii were heavily constrained, 360 was too. You could say once we start seeing the big tittles, both XB1 and PS4 will start doing even better numbers, since they have been basically selling consoles out of simple "hype".

But I don't think neither will do PS2 LTD or Wii LTD numbers. What's worst I don't think all 3 consoles will do the same numbers of the las 3 consoles AT ALL.

I'm pretty sure PS4 will sell way more than PS3 did. Sales aren't just going to fall off a cliff unless something major happens like an early PS5 release or major new entry in the console space that disrupts everything.

 

[Tripon]

You weren't reading my last couple of posts, were you? :-(


Wii U:

+86% YOY
+27% MOM

Xbox One: 77K

That's what happens when you lose a bet and get Ponies as an avatar. ;P

 

[Mauricio_Magus]

Wii U and Vita doing well makes me really happy.

 

[SwiftDeath]

You weren't reading my last couple of posts, were you? :-(


Wii U:

+86% YOY
+27% MOM

Xbox One: 77K

-33% MOM

I have no idea what you're talking about...

 

[donny2112]

So how exactly are points scored? I read this but apparently I'm too stupid to figure it out.

Let's say, for example, somebody predicted the PS4 to move 237k units and it only moved 195k units. How many points would that be worth?

237-195 = 42
42/192 = off by 21.54% (or "not off" by 78.46%)
20 points * 78.46% = 15.69 pts for the PS4

Repeat for each system. Being off by > than the total sales amount automatically goes to zero (e.g. being off by 51K on a 50K selling system is automatically 0 pts).

Confirmation.

Thanks! How does 3DS (87K) look to you? Close enough for government work?

 

[OldKingDoran]

Would really like Dragon's Crown numbers for both platforms..

 

[BananaSprinkles]

237-195 = 42
42/192 = off by 21.54% (or "not off" by 78.46%)
20 points * 78.46% = 15.69 pts for the PS4

Repeat for each system. Being off by > than the total sales amount automatically goes to zero (e.g. being off by 51K on a 50K selling system is automatically 0 pts).

Ah, okay. Thanks for explaining it to an idiot.

 

[Aquamarine]

I have no idea what you're talking about...

Your post said this:

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

 

[quetz67]

oh dear, wonder how next NPD will look. So we can assume Titanfall didn't push consoles, wonder if the price drop will make any significant bump in sales. Any amazon findings regarding this so far?

PS4 probably business as usual, maybe a little lower, because some may hold off waiting for a white one? Still high position but beat by some games like MK8 this month.

One XB1 SKU in the top 50 in May, two in June, so XB1 sales might double (if Kinectless SKU stops going down again).

Vita BL2 was still relatively high, so I don't expect a drop to old numbers just yet.

Wii U impossible to predict.

 

[donny2112]

Thief Gold download (I understand this is $7, but what made it sell so much o.o?).

It was free for several months. Want a copy? Think the key I got may still be unused ...

 

[Night Angel]

2K is a lot.

Is almost full month of normal Vita sales.

;_;

 

[Pain]

This might mean absolutely nothing, but Mario Kart 8 is now #10 on Amazon's best sellers of 2014 only behind Titanfall (#9) in terms of games. The things above them all are the PS4, PSN/XBL gift cards, 360/PS4 controllers, and Thief Gold download (I understand this is $7, but what made it sell so much o.o?).

At least the game continues to sell well to 6% of the US market? (that was the %age for Amazon right?). It has been basically pinned to #1 for a while, especially since it got price dropped to $50.

All it really means is that Titanfall and Mario Kart 8 have a pretty good attach ratio for their systems. We all know Ps4 is leading.
So just because MK8 > Watch Dogs Ps4, it doesn't mean it did that well across all retailers. Amazon must have a pretty big Nintendo fan base though for it to hold up as well as it is.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Anyways, I find it highly annoying how cream doesn't just put out a list of the things we want to know, what does he gain from teasing us?

How about you be grateful that Cream gives numbers in the first place.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Your post said this:

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

I was joking and changed it immediately, Aqua. Just giving you a hard time

 

[Aquamarine]

I was joking and changed it immediately, Aqua. Just giving you a hard time

Your PS4 is a little bit off as well.

PS4: -2% MOM

 

[SwiftDeath]

Your PS4 is a little bit off as well.

PS4: -2% MOM

Anything else?

Hard work keeping some posters happy around here let me tell you

Spoiler

Thanks for the help

 

[jroc74]

Either someone edited the post or its another one (seen a 'quoted for future reference' for GTA V in another thread...) but here is what I was talking about:

I don't think MLB will do much, and I don't think Watch Dogs is going to sell better on the 'next gen' consoles than on the 'last gen'. It also doesn't matter if there is a sales bump if it only a bump and not a sustained increase.

Regardless, even if the PS4 does show sustained higher sales like the Wii did last gen, that does not change the fact that 2/3rds of consoels selling poorly everywhere, and 1/3rd of the major territories having poor sales of all consoles is not a good thing for the console gaming industry.

People laughing at nintendos poor sales (or indeed the Xbones poor sales) don't seem to realise that.

Thats 0-2 all in 1 shot.

 

[AniHawk]

Your PS4 is a little bit off as well.

PS4: -2% MOM

my prediction score

you're killin' me, smalls

 

[SwiftDeath]

my prediction score

you're killin' me, smalls

It's not even it's final form yet!

Spoiler

Thinking 3DS is off a bit probably

 

[Aquamarine]

Thanks! How does 3DS (87K) look to you? Close enough for government work?

Nope. Try again.

 

[StevieP]

I'm pretty sure PS4 will sell way more than PS3 did. Sales aren't just going to fall off a cliff unless something major happens like an early PS5 release or major new entry in the console space that disrupts everything.

With Software makers doing what they're doing right now, I don't see the ps4 Selling to enough consumers over this (likely much shorter) generation to even beat it's predecessor's 80ish million.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wondering if J Harker and CS just have slightly different numbers. If I recall NPD do that to try and identify leaks?

 

[Tripon]

It's not even it's final form yet!

Spoiler

Thinking 3DS is off a bit probably

It is, John Hawker says its close to 100K.

 

[AniHawk]

With Software makers doing what they're doing right now, I don't see the ps4 Selling to enough consumers over this (likely much shorter) generation to even beat it's predecessor's 80ish million.

neptunia vii was just announced

 

[Aquamarine]

Wondering if J Harker and CS just have slightly different numbers. If I recall NPD do that to try and identify leaks?

I agree with John Harker: 87K for 3DS is wrong.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Nope. Try again.

92k?

For our pie chart calculations we used 60k for Wii U, should be 62k though so total is 602k not 584k

 

[Guevara]

Xbox PR keeps using the "hottest Xbox launch ever" metric in their statements, best guess of when that stops being true?

Apologies if this was already discussed.

 

[Dire]

How did you get to those numbers if you don't mind me asking?

This month

PS4 -> 48.5k / week
XB1 -> 19k / week
WiU -> 15k / week

You're suggesting

PS4 -> 70k / week -> 45% MOM increase for weekly sales
XB1 -> 35k / week -> 84% MOM increase for weekly sales
WiU -> 30k / week -> 100% MOM increase for weekly sales

I really don't think the average change from May -> June is +76%

50-100% increases from May to June are typical. I was being fairly conservative since I think the industry is in poor shape. I gave the PS4 a more normal growth since I expect it to take a disproportionate number of sales away from the XBone (in other words I don't think price is the primary issue there). The XBone's figures this month were artificially low due to the imminent price cut. And the WiiU I gave a somewhat substantial growth since they seem to have done a number at E3 and the overall level of interest in that console seems to be trending higher than ever.

 

[AniHawk]

Xbox PR keeps using the "hottest Xbox launch ever" metric in their statements, best guess of when that stops being true?

Apologies if this was already discussed.

probably when a revision includes better cooling systems.

 

[Sobriquet]

Anyways, I find it highly annoying how cream doesn't just put out a list of the things we want to know, what does he gain from teasing us?

It's more like what does he lose from not teasing us.

Be happy we get what we get these days.

 

[Cels]

I agree with John Harker: 87K for 3DS is wrong.

OT, what is the story behind your tag?

 

[SwiftDeath]

50-100% increases from May to June are typical. I was being fairly conservative since I think the industry is in poor shape. I gave the PS4 a more normal growth since I expect it to take a disproportionate number of sales away from the XBone (in other words I don't think price is the primary issue there). The XBone's figures this month were artificially low due to the imminent price cut. And the WiiU I gave a somewhat substantial growth since they seem to have done a number at E3 and the overall level of interest in that console seems to be trending higher than ever.

Huh any idea why there would be such a large MOM increase from May to June? That seems odd to me

 

[AniHawk]

OT, what is the story behind your tag?

rainbow dash lost a bet and had to kiss twilight sparkle under the mistletoe.

i just assume aquamarine's a pretty big fan of the show.

 

[Aquamarine]

370k < &#8734; < 380k, bundle ~ 6.6%

Here is another number for MK8: 352K.

This number doesn't conflict with the one Creamsugar announced.