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[Mpl90]

Bravely Default is having good legs, it shouldn't have any trouble reaching over 300,000 units at retail. On the contrary, Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII collapsed quickly, just 41,000 extra units in the last 3 months.

Launch month:

[3DS] Bravely Default (Nintendo) {02/07/14} - 160,000
[PS3 - 360] Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) {02/11/14} - 165,000
[PS3 - PSV] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix) {03/18/14} - 260,000

LTD sales as of May 31, 2014:

[3DS] Bravely Default (Nintendo) {02/07/14} - 258,000 (+ 98,000, 3 months)
[PS3 - 360] Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) {02/11/14} - 206,000 (+ 41,000, 3 months)
[PS3 - PSV] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix) {03/18/14} - 334,000 (+ 74,000, 2 months)

Is it possible to do the same for other games with updated LTD? South Park seems to have slowed down heavily since its release, IIRC.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Whaaat? Are we still talking about the context of USA? Because then you just kinda have to realize that Microsoft's franchises (especially Halo) have had a bigger impact on the market than any Sony-exclusive on PS3. MS certainly has issues and difficulties ahead of them, having well-selling franchises is not one of them.

Halo + Gears wasn't enough last generation, though, why would it be enough this generation? Microsoft has dealt itself a much worse hand this time than it did last time.

 

[Aquamarine]

So, given the numbers we have

Watch Dogs - > 1,200,000
Watch Dogs PS3 - > 575,000
Watch Dogs One - > 362,500
Watch Dogs 360 - > 175,000
Watch Dogs PS3 - > 132,000

Watch_Dogs was absolutely mammoth in this month's NPD.

In addition to selling like 1.3 million units, it also represented nearly 20% of total units and nearly 30% of total software revenue.

It's a fantastic opening for a few days of tracking for a new IP. Ubisoft must be happy with these figures.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

So, given the numbers we have

Watch Dogs - > 1,200,000
Watch Dogs PS3 - > 575,000
Watch Dogs One - > 362,500
Watch Dogs 360 - > 175,000
Watch Dogs PS3 - > 132,000

Mario Kart 8 without bundle - 352,000

Wolfenstein: The New Order - < 352,000
Wolfenstein PS4 - < 144,320
Wolfenstein One - < 133,760
Wolfenstein 360 - < 45,760
Wolfenstein PS3 - < 28,160

Watch Dogs selling so much better on PS4 should be a red alert for MS. No winder they cut the price.

 

[SwiftDeath]

It would need to have slowed down to 50% after March (don't see any signs pointing to that) to be 10M only in October. With the release of the Destiny Bundle is the most pessimistic I can think of.

Yes, yes forgot about Destiny's September release date. No way it doesn't hit 10M much after Destiny's launch

After March I think WW sales are around 500k a month or so. Hard to gauge obviously

 

[fedexpeon]

Thats pretty telling and its only NPD, something the 360 used to wipe the floor with PS3. Imagine the EU situation.



SE JRPG SALES (JP+US)

FF13: LR: 625k
BD: 553k

FFX HD: 801k

Look at this.....just look at it Square. Stare at it. You know what to do. Now do it:

Bro, they don't like money.
Nintendo LITERALLY has to convince SE to release BD to the West.
They don't know what the market wants.

 

[Suzzopher]

Yes, yes forgot about Destiny's September release date. No way it doesn't hit 10M much after Destiny's launch

After March I think WW sales are around 500k a month or so. Hard to gauge obviously

They passed 7million in April right? Surely they must have hit 8million now?

 

[AniHawk]

the 3ds has been a failure in many ways, but it turned out to be a pretty good little rpg machine. despite the userbase discrepancy between it and its predecessor, the genre's done well on the platform. if only nudemaker would develop a 3d remake of infinite space.

 

[gotstrangepowers]

I don't really see why someone would immediately jump on a $399 xb1 with nothing when the $450 sales came with a game, Live, and Kinect.

Huge base of 360 owners waiting for a price drop who didn't want kinect anyways

 

[ZSaberLink]

Power wouldn't have done much. Price helped the PS4 as well as a much more positive pre-release build up.

Xbox One will stay number two worldwide and will do solid during the Holiday season. At this point I would say the rankings are set in stone. Not much left to discuss unless a system gets a game that's the next big craze.

Way too early to say anything is set in stone lol. I'm sure in 2007 everyone said the PS3 was completely screwed yet they turned that boat around eventually. MS has a ton of money, and we haven't really even gotten our true current-gen titles on PS4/XB1 to decide anything yet except the current trends...

 

[TsuWave]

I guess that's the whole point of Kinectless Xbone, to make Xbone with Kinect look like a great deal.
Plus show some good will by provide option to gamer.

seems like a convoluted marketing plan to be honest. Product A at price point X is not selling so introduce Product B at price point Z to get consumers to buy Product A. It would have just been better to focus on the benefits of kinect.

I do agree that providing the option is a plus.

 

[donny2112]

Some people may be able to justify a $399 console purchase, when they couldn't justify a $499 console purchase, even if the $499 was a "better value" after $50 GC, free game, and Xbox Live. Lower upfront costs do entice some people more. Think back to when Microsoft offered a $99 360 with 2-years of Live agreement for a while. Better deals in terms of total price were to be found for all the components at the time, but some people still preferred the option with lower upfront costs.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Bro, they don't like money.
Nintendo LITERALLY has to convince SE to release BD to the West.
They don't know what the market wants.

FF Type 0 announcement gives me confidence that they are working on or like FFX hire another studio to do FF12 HD.

They aren't going to ignore it after it outsold BD and LR significantly.

 

[SwiftDeath]

They passed 7million in April right? Surely they must have hit 8million now?

I think they've hit 8 million quite recently. Of course it's all just conjecture based on US-WW sales ratios and NPD numbers
--------------

And with that, I'm off for the night. It's been a fun if not somewhat reserved NPD, fellow gaffers

 

[Cygnus X-1]

June is 5 weeks, so if it was flat to May (4 weeks), that'd be 80K. A MK bump would put it over that somewhere.

74k is the conceivable minimum. Everything above that is possible and very likely.

 

[Mpl90]

I think they've hit 8 million quite recently. Of course it's all just conjecture based on US-WW sales ratios and NPD numbers

If only we knew anything about European sales, that'd help.

That's the territory where I think PS4 sales aren't still as down as in US (compared to prior months), despite UK demand seemingly going down, due to other territories finally starting getting PS4s with good supply.

 

[unknownstranger]

Watch Dogs selling so much better on PS4 should be a red alert for MS. No winder they cut the price.

Sony marketed it pretty heavily months before it launched when Ubisoft started doing it. Not surprising it sold much better on PS4.

Sony needed The Last of Us Remastered to release in June to keep some momentum against Microsoft's price cut. I don't think the Xbox One will outsell PS4 in June because of the massive difference in May but it'll be close.

 

[V_Arnold]

Halo + Gears wasn't enough last generation, though, why would it be enough this generation? Microsoft has dealt itself a much worse hand this time than it did last time.

Again: USA context? Halo + Gears was more than enough to retain a firm lead over PS3 in the US market throughout the console's history.

 

[POWERSPHERE]

I don't normally care about NPDs but I'm pretty interested in how the Wii U goes after E3 & MK8 to see the real impact they have.

 

[Tommy DJ]

Some people may be able to justify a $399 console purchase, when they couldn't justify a $499 console purchase, even if the $499 was a "better value" after $50 GC, free game, and Xbox Live. Lower upfront costs do entice some people more. Think back to when Microsoft offered a $99 360 with 2-years of Live agreement for a while. Better deals in terms of total price were to be found for all the components at the time, but some people still preferred the option with lower upfront costs.

The problem is that those bundles weren't sold for $499 the whole time. For a decent amount of time they were straight up $450 at just about every retailer with additional retailer promotions. If you bought one from Target, you got the Titanfall Bundle plus one year of Xbox Live. Newegg had the Titanfall Bundle and Forza 5 for the same price.

So it wasn't $100 but rather a small $50 difference that included a ton of "value" that well exceeded $100 in some cases. I can see $100 being a huge mental block but $50 + a whole lot of stuff you would generally buy with the console? I don't see that as a huge deterrent if you actually wanted one and had the ability to crunch the numbers.

The removal of the Kinect and cutting the price by $100 tells me Microsoft would rather relaunch the product rather than actually engage in price warfare with the PS4. Their whole Phil "GAMES GAMES GAMES" Spencer alludes to this. I just don't think it'll result in a huge turnaround, especially with Sony's alpha and beta announcements to help spread the illusion that they have exclusivity over some of the largest FPS releases of this (next?) year.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Some people may be able to justify a $399 console purchase, when they couldn't justify a $499 console purchase, even if the $499 was a "better value" after $50 GC, free game, and Xbox Live. Lower upfront costs do entice some people more. Think back to when Microsoft offered a $99 360 with 2-years of Live agreement for a while. Better deals in terms of total price were to be found for all the components at the time, but some people still preferred the option with lower upfront costs.

Yeah. The $450 Titanfall bundle was a good deal for people who wanted Titanfall, but Microsoft can't position the Bone as a Titanfall box. People have to be willing to buy it to use as their primary machine, which means it needs to be priced competitively.

The problem is that Microsoft doesn't have any plausible deniability when it comes to the fact that Xbone is weaker than the PS4. It's not like previous generations where different system architectures meant that everyone could conceivably claim to have the stronger console.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Again: USA context? Halo + Gears was more than enough to retain a firm lead over PS3 in the US market throughout the console's history.

I know this is a thread about NPD, but I don't think it makes any sense to confine ourselves to the American context when discussing the futures of these consoles.

 

[Mpl90]

Commenting more on the hardware sales, I have to say I was expecting quite more from PS4. Yes, Watch_Dogs was out for just 5 days, but, given its massive debut, I thought it would have had a much better influence on hardware sales, since it was heavily promoted linked to PS4. As said in the Predictions thread, May is usually 86-87% of April: PS4 doing 200,000 in April would have meant 172,000-174,000 without relevant releases. Since PS4 sold 197,000, we can estimate that WD could have increased PS4 sales by a minimum of 23,000-25,000. IIRC, I forecasted a 50,000 circa increase...probably, I've overestimated Watch Dogs's influence on hardware sales way too much.

Still, 197,000 for the first April is just a good number. Not very good, not great, but not even mediocre, let alone bad.

The problem I have is that not only the console seems to be slowing down sensibly, but also that, given what the rest is doing, it should be selling more.

 

[kinoki]

Sony marketed it pretty heavily months before it launched when Ubisoft started doing it. Not surprising it sold much better on PS4.

Sony needed The Last of Us Remastered to release in June to keep some momentum against Microsoft's price cut. I don't think the Xbox One will outsell PS4 in June because of the massive difference in May but it'll be close.

I haven't seen any sign of an XBO momentum following the Kinect-cut. On Amazon they're tracking at #47 (Titanfall bundle) and #51 (Kinectless bundle). Meanwhile PS4 is sitting at #9 and the white Destiny PS4 is at #16. (link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1)

If anything I'd say that Sony has a momentum after the Destiny alpha. But both consoles have a tough month ahead. Next big hit is Diablo 3. Then it's The Last of Us for PS4 and then it's Destiny (which will be in Sony's favour). But after that it's sports and racers. And somewhere in there is Minecraft which is not to be underestimated.

 

[Burning Justice]

Wow @ the original Xbox tracking ahead of 360 for like a year. 360 must've been incredibly supply-constrained

It wasn't, at least not for that entire year. I got one ~6 months after launch, and had no problems whatsoever finding one.

From what I understand, the 360 didn't really start taking off until around when Halo 3 came out.

 

[Jack cw]

Huge base of 360 owners waiting for a price drop who didn't want kinect anyways

Have jumped ship already to board PS4.

 

[Loudninja]

Wait the PS4 is the only system that sold over 100K?

The PS3 and 360 need some price drops.

 

[GhostTrick]

SE JRPG SALES (JP+US)

FF13: LR: 625k
BD: 553k

FFX HD: 801k

BD sold like 300k in January... 2013, Japan only. BD FtS sold an additional 35k at launch week...
Considering BD is 258k in US, you're looking at far more than 553k, and that's assuming that BD stopped selling since January 2013 and FtS stop selling after launch week.

 

[Mpl90]

NPD first April-to-May for last major home consoles

PS2
April - 329,000
May - 281,000

Xbox
April - 78,000
May - 229,000 (price cut: $299 --> 199$)

GC
April - 82,000
May - 111,000 (price cut in June: $199 --> $149)

360
April - 295,000
May - 221,000

Wii
April - 360,000
May - 338,278

PS3
April - 84,000
May - 81,604

Wii U
April - 37,700
May - 32,600

One
April - 115,000
May - 77,000 (month before Kinect-less SKU)

PS4
April - 200,000
May - 197,000

 

[Spineker]

I have a question for us all to discuss. It isn't meant to incite a fanboy war, it is a legitimate question based off of these figures.

IF, and it's a big if, the Kinectless Xbone SKU fails to substantially increase the rate of Xbone sales, can Nintendo come second this generation?

If Nintendo smell blood in the water, and they have a tendency to do that, and push their first party agenda hard and fast, I think they can.

 

[Raist]

Dat Vita increase.

So, the gap between PS4 and XB1 is now 0.6M. I guess it might go slightly down next month.

 

[Donos]

I have a question for us all to discuss. It isn't meant to incite a fanboy war, it is a legitimate question based off of these figures.

IF, and it's a big if, the Kinectless Xbone SKU fails to substantially increase the rate of Xbone sales, can Nintendo come second this generation?

If Nintendo smell blood in the water, and they have a tendency to do that, and push their first party agenda hard and fast, I think they can.

Don't think so. XB1 will get all the major 3rd party games (like PS4) which also drive sales of the consoles. A few nintendo blockbusters with no 3rd party games inbetween aren't going to save the console.

 

[EGOMON]

I see posts talking about PS4 and Xbone numbers but i saw nothing in the OP, can someone enlighten me here with unofficial numbers we have?

 

[CozMick]

Wii U without the tablet for 149.99, tablet sold for 79.99?

Please Nintendo listen to this guy.

 

[AniHawk]

I have a question for us all to discuss. It isn't meant to incite a fanboy war, it is a legitimate question based off of these figures.

IF, and it's a big if, the Kinectless Xbone SKU fails to substantially increase the rate of Xbone sales, can Nintendo come second this generation?

If Nintendo smell blood in the water, and they have a tendency to do that, and push their first party agenda hard and fast, I think they can.

it's really only possible in japan, which should be a given. this will probably be the xbox one's worst month for a good long while, and one of the wii u's best non-holiday months ever. the obstacle for the wii u isn't merely outselling the xbox one at this point, but also making up the lost ground between it and the xbox one. i think it's insurmountable unless everyone has to have splatoon or something.

edit: on a side note, and totally unrelated to the post above, i'm listening to some mark mulcahy right now. i highly recommend you all do the same, so let me start you off with a couple good ones:

all for the best
just say hello
snacks and candy
hey sandy
we're not in charleston anymore

 

[wapplew]

I have a question for us all to discuss. It isn't meant to incite a fanboy war, it is a legitimate question based off of these figures.

IF, and it's a big if, the Kinectless Xbone SKU fails to substantially increase the rate of Xbone sales, can Nintendo come second this generation?

If Nintendo smell blood in the water, and they have a tendency to do that, and push their first party agenda hard and fast, I think they can.

Yes. If WiiU get a price cut alongside Smash Bros and position itself as most wanted supplementary console.
It will do better in Japan compare to Xbox one, globally they might have a chance to take the second place.

 

[user_nat]

NPD first April-to-May for last major home consoles
PS2
April - 329,000
May - 281,000
Xbox
April - 78,000
May - 229,000 (price cut: $299 --> 199$)
GC
April - 82,000
May - 111,000 (price cut in June: $199 --> $149)
360
April - 295,000
May - 221,000
Wii
April - 360,000
May - 338,278
PS3
April - 84,000
May - 81,604
Wii U
April - 37,700
May - 32,600
One
April - 115,000
May - 77,000 (month before Kinect-less SKU)
PS4
April - 200,000
May - 197,000

Whilst the YoY increase looks good this month. The overall market still doesn't look good compared to last gen, or even the previous one.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yes. If WiiU get a price cut alongside Smash Bros and position itself as most wanted supplementary console.
It will do better in Japan compare to Xbox one, globally they might have a chance to take the second place.

WiiU's is expected to have an LTD of 4-5 million in Japan. I think XB1 can overcome that gap in US and UK alone by the end of the generation.

 

[fedexpeon]

NPD first April-to-May for last major home consoles

PS2
April - 329,000
May - 281,000

Xbox
April - 78,000
May - 229,000 (price cut: $299 --> 199$)

GC
April - 82,000
May - 111,000 (price cut in June: $199 --> $149)

360
April - 295,000
May - 221,000

Wii
April - 360,000
May - 338,278

PS3
April - 84,000
May - 81,604

Wii U
April - 37,700
May - 32,600

One
April - 115,000
May - 77,000 (month before Kinect-less SKU)

PS4
April - 200,000
May - 197,000

So the only way to not have a decrease in sales in May is to price cut.
I don't understand, why do consoles sales decrease in the Summer?
Shouldn't this time be the perfect time for graduation gift?
Heck, you got the 1st Q stuff to play through in the summertime for bigger games in the fall.
May is such an ideal month...but yet, data say no.

 

[lifeexpectancy]

NPD threads always entertain. It's amazing how many professional analysts there are out there. I'm one of them.

Watch Dogs selling so much better on PS4 should be a red alert for MS. No winder they cut the price.

You do realize the price cut was announced before Watch Dogs sales were known, yes? Price cut (feature cut, whatever) was due to the system not selling well enough, not because of one game.

Please Nintendo listen to this guy.

$149 ain't gonna happen anytime soon. I've been saying for a while they need a $199 sku with the pro controller instead of the tablet. That would sell. I know I'd buy one.

 

[CapHarlock]

Please Nintendo listen to this guy.

There too many games that use the tablet for Nintendo to do that. It's not like the kinect where it was not used.

 

[pieatorium]

Whilst the YoY increase looks good this month. The overall market still doesn't look good compared to last gen, or even the previous one.

[

Streams might cross in july/august but I'm expecting current gen to have a bigger month 11-14 than last gen

 

[Balb]

Please Nintendo listen to this guy.

It wouldn't give them much of a boost in the long run. The GameCube being $99 helped for a little while but it obviously didn't turn its fortunes around.

 

[AniHawk]

BD sold like 300k in January... 2013, Japan only. BD FtS sold an additional 35k at launch week...
Considering BD is 258k in US, you're looking at far more than 553k, and that's assuming that BD stopped selling since January 2013 and FtS stop selling after launch week.

bravely default + fts is around 360k in japan.

 

[lifeexpectancy]

It wouldn't give them much of a boost in the long run. The GameCube being $99 helped for a little while but it obviously didn't turn its fortunes around.

There weren't as many late 20s and 30-something gamers with lots of disposable income in the Gamecube's era.

There's lots of us now that want to scratch our N-itch, but are holding out for a more reasonable price and/or a sku with the pro controller instead of that tablet pos. They'd move a metric shit ton of systems if they were $199 with pro controller instead of $249-299 with tablet.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Don't think so. XB1 will get all the major 3rd party games (like PS4) which also drive sales of the consoles. A few nintendo blockbusters with no 3rd party games inbetween aren't going to save the console.

I'm not sure how appealing the Xbone is when it comes to multiplatforms in a straight up choice between it and a PS4 to be honest.

EDIT:

WiiU's is expected to have an LTD of 4-5 million in Japan. I think XB1 can overcome that gap in US and UK alone by the end of the generation.

Well, the US and UK are going to be the only territories the Xbone has even a chance to sell in, so it has to for that to be true.

 

[davepoobond]

So the only way to not have a decrease in sales in May is to price cut.
I don't understand, why do consoles sales decrease in the Summer?
Shouldn't this time be the perfect time for graduation gift?
Heck, you got the 1st Q stuff to play through in the summertime for bigger games in the fall.
May is such an ideal month...but yet, data say no.

people arent stuck at home during summer.....

 

[mrklaw]

If only we knew anything about European sales, that'd help.

That's the territory where I think PS4 sales aren't still as down as in US (compared to prior months), despite UK demand seemingly going down, due to other territories finally starting getting PS4s with good supply.

assuming Sony are continuing production at previous volumes (eg in preparation to stock up for fall sales increases), maybe the slower sales in the US are finally allowing them to increase volumes across other markets, which have been previously quite starved (eg Germany)

 

[user_nat]

Streams might cross in july/august but I'm expecting current gen to have a bigger month 11-14 than last gen

True, forgot that this gen started much higher. This gen will never be able to keep up with the Wii though.

 

[Magic Mushroom]

people arent stuck at home during summer.....

That and not much software to drive sales.