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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

ironcreed

Banned
So what was the final margin? I don't feel like reading the entire thread, but I do recall cboat chiming in with a difference of only 7k or so.
 
They only Sold like 840k on the busiest shopping season of the year. they sold like 600k in September with the Destiny bundle. compared to what MS sold, I would call it a fail because they failed to respond to what MS was doing.

They had the third best November after launch ever without adjusting their MSRP. They sold 550K of the Destiny bundle, for reference. They sold nearly that much of the non BF bundle this month. It's not a fail at all. They offered a bundle just like they do every holiday. Them "failing" to respond is a false ex post facto narrative.
 
Really surprised Sony didn't make any official statement on this month's numbers. I genuinely wonder why...
Even if the XB1 runs 750k+ higher in the US than the PS4 this season they can still laugh it off. This generation ~55% of Microsoft's market has been the US. For Sony it's ~40%, plus in the territories Sony controls it controls by large margins.
I Don't think its hard to figure out. Most people know you'd be okay going with either console, so the one that is lower cost is going to get the most sells.
This works usually around the holidays. People who buy through the year are doing so more for a specific reason and are generally better-informed. Holiday sales are a whole lot of parents who aren't exactly thinking long-term about what first party lineups look like in the coming year.
So if the NPD numbers were in sports score format since launch, what would they look like?
Uh... how about American football?
Q1: Holidays 2013, Q2: Early 2014, Q3: Later 2014, Q4: November. 1 point ~~100k
SONY : 17 14 14 7
MS : 17 10 10 12
...12? God. All field goals. MS unable to convert in the red zone confirmed.
 

TomShoe

Banned
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=950818

PR say Advanced Warfare is best selling SKU this year so far on PS4, PS3 , XB1 and X360.

Going by the infos we have:

No PS4 game sold more than 1.17m this year.

No XB1 game sold more than 1.26m this year.

No 360 game sold more than 1.31m this year.

No PS3 game more than 765k this year.

Is it me or these numbers looks kinda low?

This can't be correct. InFamous Second Son moved 1 million copies 9 days. Probably even more considering it's had deep discounts all year.
 

AmFreak

Member
The most important thing Microsoft takes away from all of this is the fact that they've had more of a price issue than a perception issue with the Xbox One - which I'm sure is relieving news considering the latter is infinitely harder to correct.

I'm not sure if one month of beating Sony is enough to make such a statement.
 

Welfare

Member
They only Sold like 840k on the busiest shopping season of the year. they sold like 600k in September with the Destiny bundle. compared to what MS sold, I would call it a fail because they failed to respond to what MS was doing.

They actually sold 538k in September. Compared to the 360 with Halo 3, 360 did 528k in September 07, while in November 07 did 770k. Not really a fail, as Sony didn't do "much" compared to MS except for a BF bundle.
 

Nod

Neo Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=950818

PR say Advanced Warfare is best selling SKU this year so far on PS4, PS3 , XB1 and X360.

Going by the infos we have:

No PS4 game sold more than 1.17m this year.

No XB1 game sold more than 1.26m this year.

No 360 game sold more than 1.31m this year.

No PS3 game more than 765k this year.

Is it me or these numbers looks kinda low?

Yes, but as retail sales decrease, digital sales increase. And there is no method of reporting downloaded copies of anything.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
If they had foresight and good management The Order could have made it for Holidays.

This is sooo ridiculous and out there that I can't believe I am going to respond to it but here I am.

Games sometime just have to get delayed. It's not always a resource, manpower or management issue. Some times features just don't work as well as intended and/or end up being more difficult to implement.

Me too. Diablo 3, Last of Us, Destiny, GTAV, DA:I. Still, all of those I could play in another console.

Yes, but the PS4 provides the best version for all of these.
 
Wow, I can't believe how much the story has changed since the last time I was in this thread.

It'll be very interesting to see how December plays out and whether MS can sustain this momentum. Even more interesting will be what happens in January; can MS bring the price back to $400? If they truly follow Greenberg's logic and rely on holiday sales, they may be okay with raising the price again and losing NPD for most of the year, if it means they just catch up (or significantly close the gap) in Holiday 2015.

I think that the slashed pricing, bundles, etc. aren't sustainable for MS. I think they had to clear out inventory (a charge like they had to do with Surface would be too damaging to their brand) and they had to reverse the perception that there was no interest in their product. They've successfully done both with a pretty impressive push, MS management has to be thinking hard about whether they want that extra of revenue back.

For Sony's part, they probably expected this and they still have a comfortable lead. It'll be interesting to see how they respond, if they respond at all. Is "arrogant Sony" back and will they do nothing? I doubt it, but I also doubt that they'll cut their price; more likely we'll see the current free game deal becoming permanent.
 
Did it? No Top 10 in its debut month.(or the following)
Is it even close to 1 million?

Don't believe this person. His statement is completely unsourced which is why a mod PM'd him.

Sunset didn't chart in the top 10 of NPD, and all we know is that it would have been 9th if you exclude all but the highest platform of each multiplat (so Sunset is 9th if you only count Destiny for PS4, etc).

The last thing Insomniac needs is people thinking Sunset 2 is a given or worse, that it will be free with Gold eventually. They need more sales close to release (meaning now).

More sales = higher budget for sequel and more creative freedom too, I'd bet. I loved it and bought the Season Pass.

If anyone is on the fence about Sunset, it is getting some good discounts alongside FH2 this week and next.
 
Wow, I can't believe how much the story has changed since the last time I was in this thread.

It'll be very interesting to see how December plays out and whether MS can sustain this momentum. Even more interesting will be what happens in January; can MS bring the price back to $400? If they truly follow Greenberg's logic and rely on holiday sales, they may be okay with raising the price again and losing NPD for most of the year, if it means they just catch up (or significantly close the gap) in Holiday 2015.

I think that the slashed pricing, bundles, etc. aren't sustainable for MS. I think they had to clear out inventory (a charge like they had to do with Surface would be too damaging to their brand) and they had to reverse the perception that there was no interest in their product. They've successfully done both with a pretty impressive push, MS management has to be thinking hard about whether they want that extra of revenue back.

For Sony's part, they probably expected this and they still have a comfortable lead. It'll be interesting to see how they respond, if they respond at all. Is "arrogant Sony" back and will they do nothing? I doubt it, but I also doubt that they'll cut their price; more likely we'll see the current free game deal becoming permanent.

I really think without any kind of black Friday esque deals from Sony that December is going to be a bloodbatch in MS favour.

I'm thinking like 900K for XBO and 350K for PS4
 

ironcreed

Banned
Yeah, Microsoft needs to leave the price at $350. Hiking the price back up after the holidays is not going to do them any favors in the long run.
 
NPD is still not tracking digital sales, right?

No digital is included in NPD.

So Software sales listed in NPD should become less and less relevant over time as more people buy digitally.

Yep. Been heading that way for 2 years, but this new gen has really kicked up digital adoption in a huge way.

What's the estimate of digital sales for a game like Dragon Age? 20%?

That's a good ballpark estimate. Considering how PC friendly the title is (digital PC also not included in NPD, and digital is approx. 90% of PC market), could bump that % digital estimate up a bit.
 
Hope it stays competitive in the US because I want to pick up a PS4 soon to complete my console collection. Two remasters wasnt enough to make me jump in for their Black Friday deals. There werent enough exclusives to justify a PS4 if you have an Xbox already especially when the graphical differences for multiplats has gotten progressively smaller since launch

I can't see The Order or Bloodborne having mass market appeal so I'm assuming things will stay relatively even between the two, which I'm hoping leads to some pricing movement by April/May.
 
Price is king.

Not just that though. I don't know how many X1's sold to potential PS4 customers, there are a lot of people who wanted an X1 and were fence sitting waiting for a good deal (not sure how Asscreed is a good deal tho lol) but I think thats where most of the sales came from. Competition is good so congrats to MS. Lets see how December goes but reading all these "return of the king" posts is making me laugh, MS king of gaming lol.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Where are people getting that MS is selling at a huge lost while Sony made a profit when Sony two biggest sellers were the bundles including 2 games (GTA/TLOU and the LBP3 bundles).

Also, how do people know how much MS it costs to sell the X1. I see a 471 dollar price thrown around and 71 dollar kinect cost thrown around but they kinda dont make much sense together along with the idea that PS4 is using the better GPU and better memory.

If kinect only costs 71 dollars to make why sell it for more than double what it costs to make when you are trying to get some market penetration after decoupling it from the X1. Why only charge an extra 100 dollars when it is in a package with the X1? Something doesnt add up.

Im sure both companies were selling at a lost but not a huge disparity. I would bet that kinect costs closer to 150 than 71 and by decoupling it from the X1, it significantly lowered the cost of making the X1 and thus allowing all those bundles to be made.

Microsoft might not be decreasing their production costs at the same rate as Sony. If we believe that they both signed up to produce 1 million units per month for 12 months that'd be 12 million units each. Microsoft has shipped about 10 million (2 million still in warehouses) of those to retailers. Sony has shipped far more. In the coming year do you think Microsoft will produce a million a month? I don't. By not producing as many units there is a lower discount for production materials. Sony is likely to ramp up productions and will recieve an even bigger discount for materials.
 
Looks like the thread has calmed down now.

Might have to start participating. ;-)





That's not precisely correct.

I grabbed it from the prediction thread based on the pie chart. Its hard to sift through 100+ pages of data to find that out.

It's probably not precisely correct but close enough id think
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Yeah, Microsoft needs to leave the price at $350. Hiking the price back up after the holidays is not going to do them any favors in the long run.

As as some have suggested and I agree with, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that was MS plan all along.

Have the price cut actually be permanent, but advertise it as temporary to create a sense of urgency and sales boost.
 

breakfuss

Member
Has this been the lowest year of software sales for SCEA and Microsoft Game Studios since... ever? Drive Club, Forza, and Sunset Overdrive did not hit the top ten. MCC came in at #9, and is still having networking issues. TLOUR and inFamous did good earlier in the year, but not on par with the original TLOU or anything.

Third parties could have driven a truck through that opening, but the big sales successes have been the usual suspects. Now everbody will be clawing at each other next year. Weird stuff. You would not think they had longer to prepare for these systems than ever before.

I'm especially disappointed 2K didn't use the opportunity to push a next-gen Borderlands. Not sure if that's the same thing you're saying since it is an established franchise.
 
I really think without any kind of black Friday esque deals from Sony that December is going to be a bloodbatch in MS favour.

I'm thinking like 900K for XBO and 350K for PS4

Amazon's charts right now suggest that's very exaggerated. AC bundle is at 6th, PS4 with free game at 21. Destiny bundle (only discounted $10) is at #65. Lots of PS4 games in the top 20, and that's not because of the free game deal (digital only).

It is indeed in the ballpark. But there are issues with it.

Irrespective of numbers, how accurate is the gap?
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm especially disappointed 2K didn't use the opportunity to push a next-gen Borderlands. Not sure if that's the same thing you're saying since it is an established franchise.

I tink they bet that olg gen software sales would remain stronger than they are now.
 

ironcreed

Banned
As as some have suggested and I agree with, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that was MS plan all along.

Have the price cut actually be permanent, but advertise it as temporary to create a sense of urgency and sales boost.

Cool and calculated. But yeah, there is just no going back now that it is working. They would just be shooting themselves in the foot if they did.
 
Surprised that Alpha Sapphire sold more this month. Typically the wam colored games (Red, Gold, Ruby) sell more.

The ''first subtitle'' game always sold more until now, right (like, Red>Blue, Gold>Silver, Ruby>Saphire, Diamond>Pearl etc)? This is really surprising.

SoulSilver outsold HeartGold pretty convincingly over here in the US

because Lugia>Ho-oh, just like Kyogre>Groudon
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=950818

PR say Advanced Warfare is best selling SKU this year so far on PS4, PS3 , XB1 and X360.

Going by the infos we have:

No PS4 game sold more than 1.17m this year.

No XB1 game sold more than 1.26m this year.

No 360 game sold more than 1.31m this year.

No PS3 game more than 765k this year.

Is it me or these numbers looks kinda low?

They're low.
 
You would assume digital sales would be easier to track. i.e. speak with MS/Sony for their official logged numbers.

One would think that, yes.

However, from first party perspective, they get no benefit from sharing that information.

Retail gets a benefit by selling data to NPD, who then repackage it and sell it to the publishers, analysts, etc.

First parties see competitive advantage in this data, and many publishers also don't want detail of their data shared.

It's actually more complicated, but because of business reasons, not data ones.

NPD is trying to figure this out... maybe they'll be able to convince everyone that sharing this information will be a good thing.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=950818

PR say Advanced Warfare is best selling SKU this year so far on PS4, PS3 , XB1 and X360.

Going by the infos we have:

No PS4 game sold more than 1.17m this year.

No XB1 game sold more than 1.26m this year.

No 360 game sold more than 1.31m this year.

No PS3 game more than 765k this year.

Is it me or these numbers looks kinda low?

What were the first month numbers we had for Destiny on all consoles?
 
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