perfectchaos007
Member
So thats as good as its going to get for the Wii U I guess. Is a 10% marketshare enough for Nintendo consoles to survive on its own without 3rd party support?
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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
So thats as good as its going to get for the Wii U I guess. Is a 10% marketshare enough for Nintendo consoles to survive on its own without 3rd party support?
This what surprised me so much about other third parties letting stuff like Watch Dogs and Destiny go virtually uncontested. Ubi and Activision already have the most reliable annual release cycle that doesn't rely on outside league licensing, and the big successes introducing new franchises went to... Ubi and Activision. It seems like further consolidation is inevitable. The companies that did not put products out are in prime position to be absorbed by the companies that put games out. Market Darwinism, I guess. I just don't get the impression that a lot of these other companies had much of a strategy in place.
The thing about late buyers is... what is the precedent or expectation for how an eight or nine year old system (with a horrible price cut history) should be selling? I honestly have no idea what PS2 was selling around the time Persona 4 or Yakuza 2 got released in the U.S. PS3 and 360 seem like zombie platforms to me that had their lifespans artificially extended by a horrible economy, and a market leader that fell off way before their new platform was introduced. It isn't like either platform had PS2 levels of market penetration worldwide (even the Wii ended up tens of millions of units short).
I think publishers got way, way too comfortable selling PS3/360/PC games for longer than a healthy economy would have accommodated for. You've now got instances where some games sell a vast majority of copies on new platforms (Watch Dogs, Destiny, Shadow of Mordor) along with games that still sell more on older platforms (Call of Duty). How you can simultaneously have two new platforms selling at historically fast rates and still have a protracted transition seems like a spectacular feat in poor planning and mismanagement to me.
The one thing that seems to have really worked out for them is the shift to mobile for portable gaming. Much higher potential gains, with a fraction of the effort needed to make even PSP or DS games.
Well I guess I'm not alone then when it comes to wondering why people would keep aiming at doorways for hundreds of hours of each year. I like Advanced Warfare but man... nothing has changed with how people play those games since MW2 came out.
Totally possible. Further, Nintendo's loss of casual consumers might just be that they made a very bad product, and not because casual consumers are now inherently unwilling to buy a console.
However, I'd also caution against what I think of as a fast and loose method of analyzing these variables. As a simple example to explain what I mean, I've seen people on other tech forums suggest that if the new OLED TVs were 800 dollars like LCD TVs are today, then OLED TVs would be creaming the LCD TVs in sales. And that may be true, but of course, the entire reason that OLEDs cost more is also the reason why the super high-end tech people like them so much. If you actually found a way to produce an OLED TV for 800 dollars, it's quite likely that it wouldn't be very good, which is what made high end tech people like them in the first place.
Similarly, a $100 dollar PS3 today might sell better than a $200 dollar PS3 does, but it might not. To accomplish a price point that cheap, the PS3 might have needed to be cheaper tech to begin with, which might have made it less appealing to people from the start, which could have cut off its legs too.
I'm not saying you're wrong; I'm just saying it's more complicated than it may first appear.
Yeah he kept saying their was an "epic ass storm". A mod who was a developer shut him down on posting it because he believed the information was false.
Aquamarine
Member
Welfare
Member
XBO: 1,230,500
Wii U: 245,000
Both equal 63.9%
That means PS4 would be 833,600 (rounded up nearest hundred)
NickFire
Member
They are withholding comment pending an investigation into the possibility that North Korea hacked NPD and distorted the numbers to inflict further damage on them due to the Interview movie. I know this because a dog who only talks to me filled me in telepathically.
On a slightly more serious note, they really should be saying something. Its weird hearing nothing from them.
We need another little help
AkelisRain
Member
BTW, nice sales for the Vita! 
Sony make us a new LOD for the Vita.
Sony make us a new LOD for the Vita.Ah, I was going off the OP numbers for Wii U.
thats alot of one way assumptions.
anexanhume
Member
No.
But the pie chart itself is correct?
theprodigy
Member
you know you can use the pie chart, right
Sho_Nuff82
Member
You really have to wonder how much the 360/PS3 not being dirt cheap is hurting low end adoption for kids and casuals. 9 year old hardware still being sold for $299 is just mind boggling. I couldn't even get $200 on craigslist for my 8 year old LCD HDTV. It has probably really hurt publishers hoping to still eke out sales for cross-gen games that aren't named Destiny/Madden/FIFA/CoD.
And to think at the start of the gen, MS had no plans to support self-publishing. A shrinking AAA portfolio on PS4/One that has been absurdly padded by ports, remakes, and cross-gen games, and they were planning on putting the squeeze on the guys filling in the gaps.
As I posted before, the current console industry needs a new breakout hit on the level of COD4 or Wii Sports/Fit/Play or even MineCraft.
joecanada
Member
what about spring training then? January - August? I think you forgot a few months there.
Very understandable.
Mike Double U
Banned
What a thread, I haven't posted in it yet. But I was following it on my phone all of last night. What a month for Microsoft, congrats Phil. Hopefully the momentum can continue for them.
Should be at the bottom of all future NPD threads.
Should be at the bottom of all future NPD threads.
loaf of bread
Member
Aqua pls
alexandros
Banned
Interesting analysis. So where do you see the console market in two years? Do you think that Sony and Microsoft will manage to keep up the pace even as the market is contracting around them or will they see a drop in sales as well?
Destiny was conceived for be this title.
Devilgunman
Member
I rounded the number from 831K. Don't say that is also incorrect.
If Ubisoft comes out of this feeling like they got one over on people with Unity, I really fear for the quality level of their output for the next few years. Ugh.
RedAssedApe
Banned
I see them at least letting it ride through the release of The Order and Bloodborne if not all the way through E3. Although we'll get an idea by January NPD as to what direction Xbone is trending. No need to make a knee jerk reaction which could very well be two anomaly months where Xbone comes down to earth.
As another simple example to explain what I mean: would the iPad sell better if it were $40 dollars instead of $200-600?
Some people might say "Obviously it would," but in the real world that isn't necessarily true. In fact, it probably wouldn't be; to make a $40 iPad, Apple would need to cut all sorts of corners, and the final result would be a very poor product in all sorts of ways -- it would run slow, overheat constantly, probably won't work with almost any Appstore applications, and so forth. While the new iPad may be very cheap, it's also a much less advanced product, and I suspect most consumers would rather not buy it.
I think the PS3 could probably afford to be dropped to $100 at this point without losing money, but then, they need it to actually make money now, because Sony lost so much money up front with the thing. If they wanted to lose less money up front, they almost certainly would have had to reduce the system's technical specifications (unless someone in here wants to suggest they should have started at a $700 price point), which might have kept it from ever being successful at all. Maybe it would have made it easier to port games to the Wii, which would have given the Wii a stronger foothold with "core" developers, which would have fully collapsed the Xbox/PS ecosystems. I'm not sure; I'm just saying you need to think it through, and realize that price reductions have all sorts of consequences.
Some people might say "Obviously it would," but in the real world that isn't necessarily true. In fact, it probably wouldn't be; to make a $40 iPad, Apple would need to cut all sorts of corners, and the final result would be a very poor product in all sorts of ways -- it would run slow, overheat constantly, probably won't work with almost any Appstore applications, and so forth. While the new iPad may be very cheap, it's also a much less advanced product, and I suspect most consumers would rather not buy it.
I think the PS3 could probably afford to be dropped to $100 at this point without losing money, but then, they need it to actually make money now, because Sony lost so much money up front with the thing. If they wanted to lose less money up front, they almost certainly would have had to reduce the system's technical specifications (unless someone in here wants to suggest they should have started at a $700 price point), which might have kept it from ever being successful at all. Maybe it would have made it easier to port games to the Wii, which would have given the Wii a stronger foothold with "core" developers, which would have fully collapsed the Xbox/PS ecosystems. I'm not sure; I'm just saying you need to think it through, and realize that price reductions have all sorts of consequences.
At this point I don't think Sony can afford to make such a reaction with Playstation either. They may need to re-evaluate going forward if X1 stays at a lower price point and continues to sell better than the PS4 after we get solid 1st and 2nd party games on the system. MS had the superior 1st offerings and deals this holiday. We just have to wait to see if that forward momentum sticks.
Florida_Man_5000
Member
SW: Battefront? That would be my best guess.
BTW, nice sales for the Vita!
Where are the Vita sales?
There are a lot of pages in this thread.
And that's the big mistake that 3rd party publishers keep making, especially Japanese 3rd party publishers. They keep making games cross-gen with PS3/PS4, & Xbox 360/Xbox One when most people have already moved onto newer platforms, except Japan for some reason.
That's why I say that Japanese 3rd party publishers needs to make their games PS4 exclusive for the purpose of getting Japanese gamers to buy the platform over in Japan, instead of constantly making their games cross platform between either PS3 & PS4, PS4 & PS Vita, or PS3/PS4/PS Vita.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
you're right. well, not the rounding
I shouldn't have said everything.
In the end it is 400k advantage.
alexandros
Banned
So, about 1,230 and 830?
I'm really surprised Microsoft isn't heavily discounting the Xbox 360 for those markets. They would end up with more people subscribing to Live Gold which is more money in their pockets. It's a bit more understandable why the PS3 isn't doing that as Cell is still really expensive and their free online wouldn't translate to very many PS+ subs.
anexanhume
Member
I don't think they think they pulled one over on anyone with only selling in the neighborhood of 600k unbundled copies.
I got 830 from the pie chart with WiiU at 241.
pie chart is not 100% precise because Wii U must have sold at least 245k.
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare being 27% lower than Ghosts means 4,453,000
360 - 1,291,370
XBO - 1,246,840
PS4 - 1,157,780
PS3 - 757,010
Thus, Destiny (bundles excluded) between October and November
XBO- ~ < 301,840
PS4- ~ < 266,780
360- ~ < 670,370
PS3- ~ < 514,010
360 - 1,291,370
XBO - 1,246,840
PS4 - 1,157,780
PS3 - 757,010
Thus, Destiny (bundles excluded) between October and November
XBO- ~ < 301,840
PS4- ~ < 266,780
360- ~ < 670,370
PS3- ~ < 514,010
soul creator
Member
I bought a 360 4GB model for $99.99 on ebay on Black Friday, since that was pretty much impulse purchase price (bought it as a gift for someone). I'm surprised that's not the actual standard retail price for that model, lol.
A 360/PS3 that has free streaming apps and also plays a shitload of games would definitely be a good fit for the casual market, and the media box market.
I think it will still be fine. I think MS and particularly Sony will be the last to feel any squeeze, because contractions (if a contraction is actually occurring) usually start at the bottom and gradually work their way up. But sometimes, markets contract and then stabilize. That happens, and it can work out just fine for the remaining players, even if they are smaller in number. There are really two risks I see that it make it difficult to prognosticate:
1) New Blood. To continue to attract new audiences (which is necessary even in stagnant industries as you always lose old customers over time), you need new, break out products that appeal to people who weren't already interested. The easiest way to accomplish this is the way iOS and PC have done it; throw tons of crap at the wall. Yes, there is tons of shovelware on iOS and on PC. Yes, there are tons of random people making crappy games in their garage on those platforms. But occasionally, one of those games ends up not being so crappy, and becomes Minecraft or Clash of Clans or League of Legends or Counter Strike. It's really hard to predict these types of games which change the landscape, but the best way to get them on your platform is just to have tons of games trying lots of different things. Right now, that's the opposite of what's happening on consoles; there are fewer games, and those games are increasingly safe. It doesn't mean a breakout hit couldn't happen, it just makes it less likely.
2) Relentlessly increasing production costs. A stagnant user base is not, by itself, a disastrous thing; for instance, Harley Davidson motorcycle consumption has not increased appreciably over the last few decades (it has increased, but only marginally faster than population growth), but it doesn't have to. The product is profitable and produces a steady net income, even if it's not growing very significantly, and that's fine. But now imagine that motorcycle product costs were continuously increasing, such that motorcycles were twice as expensive to produce (even adjusting for inflation) as they were a decade ago. That would be a serious problem looming on the horizon; that would not be sustainable long term.
I don't think these issues are unfixable, and I'm always hesitant to predict the future. For the moment, the console market isn't set for imminent collapse, but does appear to be contracting. I think that contraction could cause problems long term, but then, every industry has potential clouds on the horizon, and sometimes those industries manage to dispel those clouds before they turn in to a major storm.
Japan decided a long time ago to hitch their wagons to handhelds to keep costs under control, and then Android and iOS happened. If you told me now that third party publishers from Japan were making less on mobile + handheld than companies from China, Korea, and United Kingdom, I would believe you. Your brand name and legacy doesn't count for much among people who are completely indifferent.
Meanwhile Konami seems to be doing fine with health clubs and realistically rendered watermelons. Poor forecasting intensifies?
I'm talking about the decision to push a horribly flawed product out the door being rewarded. It is hard to say how bad any YoY drop is without knowing how much Microsoft paid them for bundled software sales.
JetBlackPanda
Member
Does everyone asking for a Sony reaction forget that they are doing very well worldwide? Even if Microsoft pulls ahead slightly do they even care? considering they are crushing Microsoft everywhere else?
anexanhume
Member
A good comparison point because I don't think this is how shareholders see it. They see gaming divisions as ones that should constantly be growing, and absent that growth, may actually cause decisions that hurt the division in the long run because it somehow victimizes the loyal consumer base.
dude, it's about toys.
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