Support NeoGAF

[LQX]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

 

[alexandros]

I think it will still be fine. I think MS and particularly Sony will be the last to feel any squeeze, because contractions (if a contraction is actually occurring) usually start at the bottom and gradually work their way up. But sometimes, markets contract and then stabilize. That happens, and it can work out just fine for the remaining players, even if they are smaller in number. There are really two risks I see that it make it difficult to prognosticate:

1) New Blood. To continue to attract new audiences (which is necessary even in stagnant industries as you always lose old customers over time), you need new, break out products that appeal to people who weren't already interested. The easiest way to accomplish this is the way iOS and PC have done it; throw tons of crap at the wall. Yes, there is tons of shovelware on iOS and on PC. Yes, there are tons of random people making crappy games in their garage on those platforms. But occasionally, one of those games ends up not being so crappy, and becomes Minecraft or Clash of Clans or League of Legends or Counter Strike. It's really hard to predict these types of games which change the landscape, but the best way to get them on your platform is just to have tons of games trying lots of different things. Right now, that's the opposite of what's happening on consoles; there are fewer games, and those games are increasingly safe. It doesn't mean a breakout hit couldn't happen, it just makes it less likely.

2) Relentlessly increasing production costs. A stagnant user base is not, by itself, a disastrous thing; for instance, Harley Davidson motorcycle consumption has not increased appreciably over the last few decades (it has increased, but only marginally faster than population growth), but it doesn't have to. The product is profitable and produces a steady net income, even if it's not growing very significantly, and that's fine. But now imagine that motorcycle product costs were continuously increasing, such that motorcycles were twice as expensive to produce (even adjusting for inflation) as they were a decade ago. That would be a serious problem looming on the horizon; that would not be sustainable long term.

I don't think these issues are unfixable, and I'm always hesitant to predict the future. For the moment, the console market isn't set for imminent collapse, but does appear to be contracting. I think that contraction could cause problems long term, but then, every industry has potential clouds on the horizon, and sometimes those industries manage to dispel those clouds before they turn in to a major storm.

Fascinating, thanks! I love reading about the business side of the industry.

 

[Prine]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

They really don't owe us anything, especially getting into trouble for it. Should be grateful were getting an indication at least.

 

[Ty4on]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

They don't want too much attention. The NPD group really doesn' t like it when the numbers are widely known.

 

[Elandyll]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

Because, as it has been said many times, NPD is not keen on having their data published out there for free, when they have paying customers (and it's pretty expensive data to obtain on top of that).
Just be glad we can figure it out in a relatively timely manner thanks to our insiders

BTW: Thanks again Aqua and Cream.

 

[Aquamarine]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

I already said Xbox One sold 1230.5K.

And there's a very good reason insiders are vague and erratic.

 

[Welfare]

Or my pixel peeping is incorrect
I got:
37.7 - 10,5%
129.8 - 36,1%
192.5 - 53,5%

So 64% for both Wii U and One.

Using the One numbers, I get 241,500 for Wii U, and then PS4 is 827,700. I might be off.

 

[JamesAR15]

I already said Xbox One sold 1230.5K.

And there's a very good reason insiders are vague and erratic.

Thanks for the info Aqua and everyone else. These threads are always entertaining!

 

[Devilgunman]

Does everyone asking for a Sony reaction forget that they are doing very well worldwide? Even if Microsoft pulls ahead slightly do they even care? considering they are crushing Microsoft everywhere else?

Yep, Sony won't give a damn. They beat MS in their homeland for 10 straight months and only lost when MS slashed Xbone price down to nothing. It's a typical sale boost and it is unsustainable. Xbone will be back to reality once its msrp resumes.

 

[lightning2k3]

I think it will still be fine. I think MS and particularly Sony will be the last to feel any squeeze, because contractions (if a contraction is actually occurring) usually start at the bottom and gradually work their way up. But sometimes, markets contract and then stabilize. That happens, and it can work out just fine for the remaining players, even if they are smaller in number. There are really two risks I see that it make it difficult to prognosticate:

1) New Blood. To continue to attract new audiences (which is necessary even in stagnant industries as you always lose old customers over time), you need new, break out products that appeal to people who weren't already interested. The easiest way to accomplish this is the way iOS and PC have done it; throw tons of crap at the wall. Yes, there is tons of shovelware on iOS and on PC. Yes, there are tons of random people making crappy games in their garage on those platforms. But occasionally, one of those games ends up not being so crappy, and becomes Minecraft or Clash of Clans or League of Legends or Counter Strike. It's really hard to predict these types of games which change the landscape, but the best way to get them on your platform is just to have tons of games trying lots of different things. Right now, that's the opposite of what's happening on consoles; there are fewer games, and those games are increasingly safe. It doesn't mean a breakout hit couldn't happen, it just makes it less likely.

2) Relentlessly increasing production costs. A stagnant user base is not, by itself, a disastrous thing; for instance, Harley Davidson motorcycle consumption has not increased appreciably over the last few decades (it has increased, but only marginally faster than population growth), but it doesn't have to. The product is profitable and produces a steady net income, even if it's not growing very significantly, and that's fine. But now imagine that motorcycle product costs were continuously increasing, such that motorcycles were twice as expensive to produce (even adjusting for inflation) as they were a decade ago. That would be a serious problem looming on the horizon; that would not be sustainable long term.

I don't think these issues are unfixable, and I'm always hesitant to predict the future. For the moment, the console market isn't set for imminent collapse, but does appear to be contracting. I think that contraction could cause problems long term, but then, every industry has potential clouds on the horizon, and sometimes those industries manage to dispel those clouds before they turn in to a major storm.

And that is why I completely understand why Sony, Microsoft and even Nintendo are chasing indie games, and why I don't understand why some gamers dismiss them. They are a breeding ground for new creative ideas in a time when the industry desperately needs it. Plus, they introduce games at a lower price point and for a much wider audience than most AAA releases today.

 

[Ty4on]

So 64% for both Wii U and One.

Using the One numbers, I get 241,500 for Wii U, and then PS4 is 827,700. I might be off.

Just as a note accuracy is not great...
This is what 52.3 (a third rounded) looks like.

 

[John Harker]

Bayonetta hasn't crossed 100k yet (though It has with digital, since it's only like 5k away).

I suppose that's something, at least it's big growth since their latest Wii U title.
At least out the gate. LTD they are practically tied, which is kind of funny.

 

[AkelisRain]

PTV LTD < 39K

Where are the Vita sales?

There are a lot of pages in this thread.

Here you go.
I didn't see any for Vita only, not sure if this is mixed on with Vita TV now.

 

[anexanhume]

Here you go.

That's playstation tv.

 

[lightning2k3]

Bayonetta hasn't crossed 100k yet (though It has with digital, since it's only like 5k away).

I suppose that's something, at least it's big growth since their latest Wii U title.

Bayonetta 2 has only sold 95k so far? Thats a bomba even for wii u standards.

 

[AkelisRain]

That's playstation tv.

Ok, anyone have Vita numbers then?

 

[Biker19]

Japan decided a long time ago to hitch their wagons to handhelds to keep costs under control, and then Android and iOS happened. If you told me now that third party publishers from Japan were making less on mobile + handheld than companies from China, Korea, and United Kingdom, I would believe you. Your brand name and legacy doesn't count for much among people who are completely indifferent.

Meanwhile Konami seems to be doing fine with health clubs and realistically rendered watermelons. Poor forecasting intensifies?

Well, some Japanese 3rd party publishers aren't exactly making smart decisions, like Capcom & Square-Enix. Capcom made a boatload of money off of Monster Hunter 4 alone, only to turn around & spend most of it on making a mobile studio in which they lost a lot of money off of.

 

[TI82]

Me three. Smash is legit but MK8 just felt like such a massive disappointment. I'm not even sure why. I played each cup through once and haven't touched it since. I found myself completely apathetic with 3D world as well. As it is Smash and Pikmin are the only games I've played with any regularity on the system. Kinda regretting my purchase at this point.

Sorry late reply. And yeah I've said this a few times on this sub but I bought a Wii U at its launch and omg it was probably the worst launch console I've ever owned. System still has a lot of problems from then too (forced use of gamepad for menus, suuuuper slow, bad wifi speed). I sold mine off to get a PS4, never regretted it. My current roommate won one in a Burger King contest around launch and even for free hes like "meh". It's basically our smash machine lol. To take a picture the other day of it for gaf I had to take a bunch of skylanders and PS4 games off that had piled onto it.

So I think the Wii U talk around gaf is a bit inflated to make the situation sound better. Thankfully as a multi console owning household we don't succumb to the post purchase rationalizations.

 

[Mooreberg]

Does everyone asking for a Sony reaction forget that they are doing very well worldwide? Even if Microsoft pulls ahead slightly do they even care? considering they are crushing Microsoft everywhere else?

I think they have no intention of getting roped into another game of "chicken" with Microsoft . Looking back, the PS3 came out about a year earlier than it should have. The top selling hardware and games in 2007 were not Xbox 360 and Mass Effect, it was the Wii and associated games. They thought Xbox 360 was the system to catch, which simply was not the case until years later.

This time it seems like Microsoft wants to rope Sony into dropping the MSRP a lot sooner than the market success would reasonably dictate (I've always thought some time around E3 made the most sense). I'm not Sony and I don't get market data, but I'd personally rather take the PR hit of Microsoft cutting down the domestic sales gap for two months then drop the price on something that is already selling extremely well since launch.

I'll go back to what I said thousands of posts ago - the one thing they should have done that would have increased the value proposition of the bundle with minimal pain would have been to make PS+ more of a differentiator and throw that in. They could not have lost very much on potential sales revenue by putting games like Killzone and Knack on it, and the only third party retail game on there right now is an enhanced port of a PS3/360 game from eighteen months ago. They've got some nice software in there so far, but nothing that particularly matters to a holiday retail shopper.

Well, some Japanese 3rd party publishers aren't exactly making smart decisions, like Capcom & Square-Enix. Capcom made a boatload of money off of Monster Hunter 4 alone, only to turn around & spend most of it on making a mobile studio in which they lost a lot of money off of.

Yeah, everybody chases the easy money until it blows up in their faces. I thought they would have figured this out over the course of the previous hardware cycle.

 

[Mpl90]

Bayonetta 2 first month - 68,000
Bayonetta 2 second month - 27,000

Including first month's digital sales (10% of overall sales), it's surely at 102,560 units sold

It's been a while since the last time we got a Tomodachi Life update, though.

 

[Conduit]

I thought that November NPD thread will beat the shit out of March NPD thread.

 

[allan-bh]

No surprise about Bayonetta. Deserves better sales but we all knew that wouldn't happen.

 

[jacobeid]

Bayonetta 2 first month - 68,000
Bayonetta 2 second month - 27,000

Including first month's digital sales (10% of overall sales), it's surely at 102,560 units sold.

 

[Aquamarine]

Advanced Warfare had about 25% drop compared to Ghosts last year.

Advanced Warfare had a:

-27% drop compared to Ghosts

-41% drop compared to Black Ops 2


But, it most likely had a larger digital presence which helps explain some of the decline.

 

[allan-bh]

Why are all these insiders being so vague? If they know why the hell don't they just come out and say it? Nope, yep, the moon is black, sun is white. Ugh.

We don't need this again, didn't end well last time.

 

[MepH-]

Bayonetta 2 first month - 68,000
Bayonetta 2 second month - 27,000

Including first month's digital sales (10% of overall sales), it's surely at 102,560 units sold

It's been a while since the last time we got a Tomodachi Life update, though.

Thanks for the Info ;O
Going by this number, Bayo2 did well this month in comparison to it's first month. Games like this tend to be very frontloaded in sales usually.

 

[vinnygambini]

Bayonetta hasn't crossed 100k yet (though It has with digital, since it's only like 5k away).

I suppose that's something, at least it's big growth since their latest Wii U title.
At least out the gate. LTD they are practically tied, which is kind of funny.

I'm slightly disappointed by Bayonetta's performance, but hey, it is what it is ;.;

What was the second best selling sku for Wii U software? Hyrule Warriors, MK8, Skylanders or Just Dance?

If you could give us an LTD for the first two, I'd be really appreciative.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I think the PS3 could probably afford to be dropped to $100 at this point without losing money, but then, they need it to actually make money now, because Sony lost so much money up front with the thing. If they wanted to lose less money up front, they almost certainly would have had to reduce the system's technical specifications (unless someone in here wants to suggest they should have started at a $700 price point), which might have kept it from ever being successful at all. Maybe it would have made it easier to port games to the Wii, which would have given the Wii a stronger foothold with "core" developers, which would have fully collapsed the Xbox/PS ecosystems. I'm not sure; I'm just saying you need to think it through, and realize that price reductions have all sorts of consequences.

Also, a HUGE amount of 360/PS3 systems being sold at this point are either replacement systems or second systems (Billy wants his own PS3 in the bedroom) for households that already have a bunch of 360/PS3 discs. These systems do not generate much attach rate because of this, so if you sell them for a loss, you aren't likely to make the money back on games and accessories.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Bayonetta hasn't crossed 100k yet (though It has with digital, since it's only like 5k away).

I suppose that's something, at least it's big growth since their latest Wii U title.
At least out the gate. LTD they are practically tied, which is kind of funny.

Thanks!

Bayonetta 2
USA: 100.000 (end of Nov.)
France: 60.000 (projected till years end)
Japan: 50.000 (mid of October)
UK: ~10.000 (launch week)

Total: 220.000

 

[MepH-]

Thanks!



Bayonetta 2
USA: 100.000 (end of Nov.)
France: 60.000 (end of Nov.)
Japan: 50.000 (mid of October)
UK: ~10.000 (launch week)

Total: 220.000

Not yet 60K in France, I explained it in the France numbers thread.
That 60K was a projection/estimate from Nintendo France for year's end in fact.

 

[allan-bh]

But, it most likely had a larger digital presence which helps explain some of the decline.

Definitely is a factor, but even with let's say 20% digital sales, is disappointing for CoD.

Activision must be worried with Destiny not being the huge hit they expected and this CoD drop.

 

[Mooreberg]

Advanced Warfare had a:

-27% drop compared to Ghosts

-41% drop compared to Black Ops 2


But, it most likely had a larger digital presence which helps explain some of the decline.

Modern Warfare 3 was where the franchised peaked for sales rate, correct? I don't think this franchise is destined to be topping itself fifteen years in like GTA has. The decline has been pretty gradual compared to previous dairy productions (Tony Hawk, et al) but I think people just have enough at some point. Its what makes Take 2 being bought out by a larger company a nauseating idea.

 

[Aquamarine]

Modern Warfare 3 was where the franchised peaked for sales rate, correct? I don't think this franchise is destined to be topping itself fifteen years in like GTA has. The decline has been pretty gradual compared to previous dairy productions (Tony Hawk, et al) but I think people just have enough at some point. Its what makes Take 2 being bought out by a larger company a nauseating idea.

That's correct. Modern Warfare 3 sold nearly 9 million in its opening month including the Xbox 360 bundle.

We're now down to half of that. A major franchise decline in 3 years.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Looking at the other thread about released games coming on XBone and PS4. 2015 looks to be more PS4 focused, in terms of games.

Also Someone Yesterday answered my question if NPD for November takes into account the boost of sales from PSX hype.

Which it doesn't. So I think December will be interesting, and if Sony counters with another bundle or releases more of the GTA V bundle it will be a blood bath in December.

I think all the hype from PSX is going to give Sony a boost in sales for their regular sku's.

The only thing that could numb some of that PSX hype was the absolutely dumb SE FFVII troll. There was no reason for that nonsense; hopefully people direct their anger at SE and not Sony for that, tho I don't know why Sony gave them such a spot at the show in the first place if it was just a PC port.

 

[lightning2k3]

That's correct. Modern Warfare 3 sold nearly 9 million in its opening month including the Xbox 360 bundle.

We're now down to half of that. A major franchise decline in 3 years.

Franchise fatigue and some bad releases? Seems AC is also suffering from that to some extent.

 

[Mooreberg]

That's correct. Modern Warfare 3 sold nearly 9 million in its opening month including the Xbox 360 bundle.

We're now down to half of that. A major franchise decline in 3 years.

Thanks for the info! Yeah, I'd like to believe they would hit the brakes on this a bit at some point, but they've put themselves into a position where they basically have to release it every year or suffer massive YoY decline (or more massive, as the case may be).

Multiplayer games that you can spend hundreds of hours with and open world games being annualized never made much sense to me. I guess there were so many people that played those games to the exclusion of everything that else that it made perfect sense for a while.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Yeah they made good money but at what price? I think having a good foothold in the console industry is far more important right now for them than making a slim amount of money.

I really really don't see how it's possible.

Their WiiU software ecosystem was so strongly consolidated around one title that the next nine on their top ten didn't even amount to number one.

All of their profitability is literally on the back of two software releases. Smash and Pokemon. While One/PS4 is spread among quite a few games. Nintendo might have profited more on hardware than Sony/MS but I see no way in hell they could have on software.

 

[Welfare]

That's correct. Modern Warfare 3 sold nearly 9 million in its opening month including the Xbox 360 bundle.

We're now down to half of that. A major franchise decline in 3 years.

Oh god it's only been 3 years? I wonder where this franchise will be in 2020.

 

[RedAssedApe]

At this point I don't think Sony can afford to make such a reaction with Playstation either. They may need to re-evaluate going forward if X1 stays at a lower price point and continues to sell better than the PS4 after we get solid 1st and 2nd party games on the system. MS had the superior 1st offerings and deals this holiday. We just have to wait to see if that forward momentum sticks.

keep msrp but throw in some older first partygames like KZ and KNACK. people will just see FREE GAMES.

 

[1st Course]

Looking at the other thread about released games coming on XBone and PS4. 2015 looks to be more PS4 focused, in terms of games.

Also Someone Yesterday answered my question if NPD for November takes into account the boost of sales from PSX hype.

Which it doesn't. So I think December will be interesting, and if Sony counters with another bundle or releases more of the GTA V bundle it will be a blood bath in December.

I think all the hype from PSX is going to give Sony a boost in sales for their regular sku's.

Game conferences never boost sales.

 

[Aquamarine]

Oh god it's only been 3 years? I wonder where this franchise will be in 2020.

Probably dead if it continues to decline at such a steep rate.

 

[Journey]

Yep, Sony won't give a damn. They beat MS in their homeland for 10 straight months and only lost when MS slashed Xbone price down to nothing. It's a typical sale boost and it is unsustainable. Xbone will be back to reality once its msrp resumes.

What if they decide to keep it at that price?

 

[perfectchaos007]

No word on how 3DS hardware did? I figured Nintendo was basically throwing in the towel this holiday season when they decided to hold off releasing the New 3DS until next year

 

[Mooreberg]

Oh god it's only been 3 years? I wonder where this franchise will be in 2020.

The crazy part is that MW3 was the first game to come out in the wake of the Infinity Ward implosion (Black Ops had nothing to do with it). I guess it doesn't matter how messed up a situation is internally or how smoothed out it is... people either want your product, or they do not.

 

[Biker19]

Modern Warfare 3 was where the franchised peaked for sales rate, correct? I don't think this franchise is destined to be topping itself fifteen years in like GTA has. The decline has been pretty gradual compared to previous dairy productions (Tony Hawk, et al) but I think people just have enough at some point. Its what makes Take 2 being bought out by a larger company a nauseating idea.

That's what happens when companies have a big hit on their hands, & starts milking their franchises year after year.

People start to get franchise fatigue, & then the franchise drops off the face of the earth entirely, like with Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc., & the same will soon happen to other franchises like COD & Assassin's Creed. Franchises like GTA are still big because Rockstar takes their time & spreads out the releases of those games, & isn't a yearly franchise.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

No word on how 3DS hardware did? I figured Nintendo was basically throwing in the towel this holiday season when they decided to hold off releasing the New 3DS until next year

515k units. A decline from the 700k+ last year that was a significant contraction from the prior year.

 

[Patapwn]

The only thing that could numb some of that PSX hype was the absolutely dumb SE FFVII troll. There was no reason for that nonsense; hopefully people direct their anger at SE and not Sony for that, tho I don't know why Sony gave them such a spot at the show in the first place if it was just a PC port.

FF7 should have been a free "happy birthday playstation" thing. What nonsense that they're charging $15.99

 

[Mpl90]

515k units. A decline from the 700k+ last year that was a significant contraction from the prior year.

No, 2013 was a significant improvements compared to 2012.

 

[Aquamarine]

515k units. A decline from the 700k+ last year that was a significant contraction from the prior year.

Around 515K units.

Remember to be as precise as you can.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

No, 2013 was a significant improvements compared to 2012.

Calm down and stop shouting.

I have a hangover.

Around 515K units.

Remember to be as precise as you can.

Everyones text is so bright.

I hate it.