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[Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah]

My view of NPD hasn't changed. I still hold their results at arms length.

I believe that their results are at varying degrees inaccurate -they state this in their terms of service- mostly because their partners SAP integration is a bit all over the place. That is just s case that the integration of SAP is never the same for each firm. In some firms it equates to several integrations.I am fortunate in that a publisher sends me their results real time.

What does real time mean? It means dollars in the bank.

The key to looking at reports like this, is the take away and the indicators. If you look at ********, they are unique as they may be WAY out in a given month, but they correct their results once the related parties report their quarterly earnings. Since NPD doesn't release their reports to the public ever and I get to compare them to the actual numbers.

Sometimes, they are right and sometimes they are wrong within and outside of a margin of error.

They generally take their numbers from the retailers at face value and as I have mentioned, these can be a bit inaccurate, but they are still indicators and that is important.

In terms of what is real? I look at quarterly reports of the publicly traded firms in the industry. I fold that into a formula with a +/- margin of error of 7%. Yes this is high, but I need to look at the broader picture.

With all that said, my focus is on the GAAP/Non-GAAP performance of the firms in which I have an interest, the rest is basically BS.

The other element here is digital, which is growing faster than any of us imagined. Digital this year alone from a quarterly perspective has grown Q over Q from 12% of gross sales to a tiny bit over 18% in Q3 across the three console platforms.Indicators are that Q4 will equate to 23%.

The bottom line here is that the only thing that matters for these firms and their investors is what is in the bank.However in terms of sales banked, I think the only thing that matters for gamers is, are ya getting value for your dime and the rest is BS?

Ergo, NPD is basically Famitsu.

 

[Osahi]

A 710K LTD difference isn't accurate.

Neither is a really close number to 710K, like 705K or 715K.

So, just wondering. Ltd difference > 710k or < 710k

 

[Aquamarine]

So, just wondering. Ltd difference > 710k or < 710k

>710K.

Maybe I'll share it later on. Who knows...the thread still has lots of life left in it.

 

[stryke]

I thought it's well established by now that it's 800k.

 

[Aquamarine]

I thought it's well established by now that it's 800k.

What? Where?

 

[stryke]

What? Where?

Using pies from Cream

 

[freefornow]

So his ban will be lifted right around E3. Interesting.

Well, where would all the fun of a GAF E3 be without CBOAT

 

[Aquamarine]

Using pies from Cream

800K doesn't make sense. Just ask any GAFfer who has been following NPD sales super, super closely each month.

 

[unapersson]

In terms of what is real? I look at quarterly reports of the publicly traded firms in the industry. I fold that into a formula with a +/- margin of error of 7%. Yes this is high, but I need to look at the broader picture.

So you base your numbers on sales to retailers? How do you then calculate what number you think has been sold to consumers, or does that not really factor in?

I think digital is the elephant in the room when it comes to pronouncements about software sales based on NPD. A lot has been made in the past about what percentage of retailers that NPD covers, and I think Aquamarine has said they hit 95% before, but if digital approaches 20% then that's quite a chunk they're missing. Especially in their platform ordering rankings when it comes to the Top 10 software which are already skewed by bundles.

 

[stryke]

800K doesn't make sense. Just ask any GAFfer who has been following NPD sales super, super closely each month.

I saw someone calculated 790k earlier.

But looking up Road's graph he had 720k but you said that's not close?

 

[Aquamarine]

I saw someone calculated 790k earlier.

But looking up Road's graph he had 720k but you said that's not close?

I haven't said anything other that it's >710K and 800K doesn't make sense.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I'd also like to know how Watch Dogs did on Wii U.

 

[KyanMehwulfe]

This is sort of a month late... but did we ever get any NPD data on the Sleeping Dogs remaster? I've tried searching around, the other thread... also releases from United Fronts, Square Enix, etc... and nothing. We have any any at all how it sold?

 

[TheKevinDent]

So you base your numbers on sales to retailers? How do you then calculate what number you think has been sold to consumers, or does that not really factor in?

I think digital is the elephant in the room when it comes to pronouncements about software sales based on NPD. A lot has been made in the past about what percentage of retailers that NPD covers, and I think Aquamarine has said they hit 95% before, but if digital approaches 20% then that's quite a chunk they're missing. Especially in their platform ordering rankings when it comes to the Top 10 software which are already skewed by bundles.

I only focus on sold through.

Basing your numbers on sold in is like playing Dark Souls blindfolded, you're basically fucked. NPD ranges from 99% correct to 47%, but just on the numbers I have seen every month for 6 years.

Sold in for vanity, sold through for sanity!

Digital will be a key metric in 2015 and as of now, they lack access.

 

[FATALITY]

Close CBOAT, but no cigar!

Xbox One 1.2M Units
Playstation 800K Units

how many months took u to make this post?

 

[TheKevinDent]

800K doesn't make sense. Just ask any GAFfer who has been following NPD sales super, super closely each month.

what does following NPD monthly "super, super closely" mean? actual or forecasted?

They don't change their numbers. To be clear, I am not attacking you, I just don't understand what you're saying?

 

[Aquamarine]

what does following NPD monthly "super, super closely" mean? actual or forecasted?

They don't change their numbers. To be clear, I am not attacking you, I just don't understand what you're saying?

People who follow what insiders leak very, very closely and have all the leaks in an Excel spreadsheet and...based on the precise information we have in November 2014...perform some simple calculations.

You'll see how 800K doesn't make sense.


An example of one of these GAFfers: the illustrious donny2112, the OP of each month's prediction thread.

 

[stryke]

I haven't said anything other that it's >710K and 800K doesn't make sense.

Ok, maybe I just don't understand what you said earlier then.

 

[TheKevinDent]

People who follow what insiders leak very, very closely and have all the leaks in an Excel spreadsheet and...based on the precise information we have in November 2014...perform some simple calculations.

You'll see how 800K doesn't make sense.


An example of one of these GAFfers: the illustrious donny2112, the OP of each month's prediction thread.

Sure, I am just going off of the NPD report until the quarterly numbers come in and even that is a challenge as Xbox only reports sell in.

 

[staticneuron]

My view of NPD hasn't changed. I still hold their results at arms length.

I believe that their results are at varying degrees inaccurate -they state this in their terms of service- mostly because their partners SAP integration is a bit all over the place. That is just s case that the integration of SAP is never the same for each firm. In some firms it equates to several integrations.I am fortunate in that a publisher sends me their results real time.

What does real time mean? It means dollars in the bank.

The key to looking at reports like this, is the take away and the indicators. If you look at ********, they are unique as they may be WAY out in a given month, but they correct their results once the related parties report their quarterly earnings. Since NPD doesn't release their reports to the public ever and I get to compare them to the actual numbers.

Sometimes, they are right and sometimes they are wrong within and outside of a margin of error.

They generally take their numbers from the retailers at face value and as I have mentioned, these can be a bit inaccurate, but they are still indicators and that is important.

In terms of what is real? I look at quarterly reports of the publicly traded firms in the industry. I fold that into a formula with a +/- margin of error of 7%. Yes this is high, but I need to look at the broader picture.

With all that said, my focus is on the GAAP/Non-GAAP performance of the firms in which I have an interest, the rest is basically BS.

The other element here is digital, which is growing faster than any of us imagined. Digital this year alone from a quarterly perspective has grown Q over Q from 12% of gross sales to a tiny bit over 18% in Q3 across the three console platforms.Indicators are that Q4 will equate to 23%.

The bottom line here is that the only thing that matters for these firms and their investors is what is in the bank.However in terms of sales banked, I think the only thing that matters for gamers is, are ya getting value for your dime and the rest is BS?

I find this interesting because NPD was a pretty good indicator of units sold in stores I would have thought. When you mention money in the bank doesn't it include many other variables that NPD doesn't count and also an obfuscated number due to every SKU not being the same price?

What I am really wondering here, is "why" this bothers you. So what if the bundles and digital sales are not counted?

 

[Aquamarine]

I find this interesting because NPD was a pretty good indicator of units sold in stores I would have thought. When you mention money in the bank doesn't it include many other variables that NPD doesn't count and also an obfuscated number due to every SKU not being the same price?

What I am really wondering here, is "why" this bothers you. So what if the bundles and digital sales are not counted?

It is a pretty good indicator of units sold in stores. Personally I think it's a great indicator.

Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo all think it's a good indicator of units sold in stores. If they think it's a good indicator, WE should think it's a good indicator.

 

[OneEyeTwoHead]

I wonder how much money they lost this month.

 

[AstuteClass]

Question is, who is taking December NPD?

 

[maquiladora]

Question is, who is taking December NPD?

I don't see how PS4 can be #1 as long as that price difference stands.

 

[AstuteClass]

I don't see how PS4 can be #1 as long as that price difference stands.

I just can't believe $50 less is all it took for the phenomenon that was PS4 to be deflated.

Unless it's that it has a free game to boot.

 

[Nightengale]

I just can't believe $50 less is all it took for the phenomenon that was PS4 to be deflated.

Unless it's that it has a free game to boot.

ACU bundle ( pretty much the only bundle that matters right now ) has two free games, on top of being $50 cheaper, so yeah... there's that.

And 800k+ for November isn't a 'deflatment', it's just not 'explosive' like XB1.

 

[AniHawk]

I just can't believe $50 less is all it took for the phenomenon that was PS4 to be deflated.

Unless it's that it has a free game to boot.

ps4 also has two free games.

 

[GYNGA]

Question is, who is taking December NPD?

"December NPD will be interesting"

 

[QaaQer]

You're over-exaggerating...EA actually didn't have all that bad of a November.

For example:

FIFA is up like +38% launch-to-date from last year's iteration. And Madden is up as well. And Dragon Age really didn't do that bad at all...it was on-par with Dragon Age 2's launch...etc.

Sure, EA is -30% for the month compared to last November, but Battlefield launching last year explains the decline.

In fact, EA is only down -2% YTD, so when you take into consideration that digital is growing, they're doing just fine.

Their average revenue per user is up as well. They are doing pretty well at dropping f2p gambling mechanics into their games. It's a shame they cannot retain talent though.

 

[RedAssedApe]

I just can't believe $50 less is all it took for the phenomenon that was PS4 to be deflated.

Unless it's that it has a free game to boot.

for the first two weeks it was a $50 (349) difference with two extra games (if you got the unity bundle) vs 399

for bf it was $70 off (329) at most major retailers with two extra games (unity bundle) and some places were also giving you an additional GC amount to the store vs. 399 PS4 bundle w/ two games.

 

[Kar]

The Newegg deal that was on ebay, when was it? late Nov or Dec?

 

[TheKevinDent]

I find this interesting because NPD was a pretty good indicator of units sold in stores I would have thought. When you mention money in the bank doesn't it include many other variables that NPD doesn't count and also an obfuscated number due to every SKU not being the same price?

What I am really wondering here, is "why" this bothers you. So what if the bundles and digital sales are not counted?

Normally they report $ sales and unit sales, albeit with Xbox sell in vs sell through.

Not sure I know what you mean by ""why" this bothers you?", I was bored and waiting for a pig butt to finish on my smoker".

I didn't mention bundles?

 

[Avatar1]

I just can't believe $50 less is all it took for the phenomenon that was PS4 to be deflated.

Unless it's that it has a free game to boot.

Don't believe it. It wasn't just $50. Microsoft gave the thing away. See posts above me but it was 329 with multiple free games PLUS a $50 gift card at several major chains.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Their average revenue per user is up as well. They are doing pretty well at dropping f2p gambling mechanics into their games. It's a shame they cannot retain talent though.

I don't know what they released this year, but Plants vs Zombies 2 is great. If items were priced less, I might actually buy something. Seriously, $4 for a fucking plant.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I assume it depends on the unique terms of the contract between Take-Two and Sony.

My guess is that Take-Two negotiates a flat fee for Sony to have the right to manufacture X amount of consoles containing GTA V.

Sony must pay, at the very minimum, the amount of revenue that Take-Two would have expected from selling the title. So MSRP ($60) or ASP for GTA V software. Take-Two wants upfront profits so Sony bears all the risk in selling the product.

I would imagine that Take-Two also demands extra fees on-top of that, because GTA is such a valued brand and Sony inherently benefits from attaching the GTA V name to Sony. Maybe Take-Two receives a share of the backend as well.

Once the revenue comes in from selling the console to retail channels, the money goes back to SCEA because they're the one publishing the product.

$10 of every $60 dollar disc game goes back to the platform holder. So Sony or MS would never pay more than $10 less than the wholesale price. Otherwise, they should just pay wholesale on a disc game. Of course, they have way more clout than that due to volume, so the most they would ever pay, for a disc game, is wholesale price (well less than $60), minus another $10, minus whatever they negotiate.

With digital, even less. LOTS less. Less overhead, less risk.

Today, digital codes of Ass Creed Unity + Black Flag sold for a while on a digital deal site for $27.99. Something fell through the cracks and these codes ended up elsewhere, but somebody still made a profit on them. Think those digital codes sell for more than that to MS or Sony, for the games they bundle digitally? Think again.

Pack-ins are cheap.

Feel bad for the publishers? Even after accepting the negotiated rate, they can still make DLC money on most titles these days, from those who got the game for 'free'.

 

[Aquamarine]

The Newegg deal that was on ebay, when was it? late Nov or Dec?

It occurred on November 27th, so it was directly tracked in the November 2014 NPD report.

Thanks to that Newegg + Sony deal, PS4 sold an extra 7.2K consoles they wouldn't have otherwise.

 

[Kar]

It occurred on November 27th, so it was directly tracked in the November 2014 NPD report.

Thanks to that Newegg + Sony deal, PS4 sold an extra 7.2K consoles they wouldn't have otherwise.

Ok thanks.
But are you sure it was 7k? I remember it being 12k (not that it makes a any difference).

 

[QaaQer]

I'm not going to comment on the other stuff you wrote, but I'll agree with this.

Digital is certainly becoming increasingly important, and assuming digital sold ~20% of the total for many major titles that released is a good rule of thumb.

And that percentage doesn't tell the whole story. A digital customer is much more likely to purchase things like ultimate packs, expansions, ME chests, and Simpson's bucks. 1 digital customer = 1.x retail customer.

 

[Memorabilia]

Get fucked, Assassin's Creed. It's about time.

This. 1000 times this.

 

[TheKevinDent]

It is a pretty good indicator of units sold in stores. Personally I think it's a great indicator.

Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo all think it's a good indicator of units sold in stores. If they think it's a good indicator, WE should think it's a good indicator.

It's deinitely a good indicator. With that said if the companies that you mentioned could close down NPD tomorrow they would. There is no logical purpose for NPD outside of the data analysts use inside and outside of the industry.

There is no win in having to deal with the presses monthly NPD circus as it just costs money. The truth is, is that the platform owners already know each other's sales on a week to week basis.

The publishers are not going to stop supporting either Sony or MSFT and their sales in ten years will be comparable. There will be no "winner" by a large margin in this console cycle.

The only variable will be exclusives and even those deals are declining. The value proposition today is this: what will the attach rate be? Sony and MSFT will both make money, which is great as that in turn will drive capital into dev cycles.

There is zero benefit
There is zero profit center
There is only a cost center in preparing a reaction.

 

[Conduit]

Eesh, it's like my mom always said there are times to speak and other times when its best to pretend you were involved in a serious accident that left you eating your food through a straw and mute.

I don't see what is wrong in Sony PR. They were No.1 on Amazon ( not only on Amazon ) during Black Friday and day after and they are still leading in US.

 

[Aquamarine]

Ok thanks.
But are you sure it was 7k? I remember it being 12k (not that it makes a any difference).

Yes, according to eBay internal data.

7,209 consoles were available for the promo...they all sold out in the same day.

After that, the listing was refreshed with PS4 at the normal price with an extra inventory of 713 consoles.

Only 12 consoles have been sold since November 27th. the first of which was on November 29th.

So, from the eBay listing we have:


7,209 consoles sold on November 27th = in the NPD report

3 consoles sold on November 29th = In the NPD report

9 consoles sold after November 29th = Not in the NPD report

701 unsold, replenished stock (at normal price)

 

[Kar]

Yes, according to eBay internal data.

7,209 consoles were available for the promo...they all sold out in the same day.

After that, the listing was refreshed with PS4 at the normal price with an extra inventory of 713 consoles.

Only 12 consoles have been sold since November 27th. the first of which was on November 29th.

So, from the eBay listing we have:


7,209 consoles sold on November 27th = in the NPD report

3 consoles sold on November 29th = In the NPD report

9 consoles sold after November 29th = Not in the NPD report

701 unsold, replenished stock (at normal price)

So thats how it works..
Thanks again.

 

[QaaQer]

ps4 also has two free games.

The standard deal is 1 game + console for $399.

I don't see what is wrong in Sony PR. They were No.1 on Amazon ( not only on Amazon ) during Black Friday and day after and they are still leading in US.

eh, people just having some fun. Besides, PR is always shite because the goal is manipulation not communication.

I don't know what they released this year, but Plants vs Zombies 2 is great. If items were priced less, I might actually buy something. Seriously, $4 for a fucking plant.

Out of curiosity, do you know what you are buying in pvz2? or is there a random element?

 

[Osahi]

>710K.

Maybe I'll share it later on. Who knows...the thread still has lots of life left in it.

Thanks, I came to 720k based on the 1,1 milion I had in mind before november and the 380k difference now. But there is so much estimating going on and such, it's probablyt pretty inaccurate now.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Out of curiosity, do you know what you are buying in pvz2? or is there a random element?

You do know actually. Many items in the store you can earn in game except for some plants. Just one for $4 is ridiculous seeing you unlock a large variety.

Thanks, I came to 720k based on the 1,1 milion I had in mind before november and the 380k difference now. But there is so much estimating going on and such, it's probablyt pretty inaccurate now.

This is what I have for each month since each system launched:

EDIT: Deleted upon request.

 

[Birgitte2004]

Jesus fucking Christ Sony, using amazon, really? It's like I been transported to another dimension. Why did they even bother realising a pr statement? Can someone help me out here? They just got ass fucked, a pr release should be a no no lol.

This is still a better PR statement than the crap Microsoft has been putting out all year...at least it had to do with actual sales and not "shipment totals coming soon" or "# of zombies killed on Xbox Live"

 

[Osahi]

You do know actually. Many items in the store you can earn in game except for some plants. Just one for $4 is ridiculous seeing you unlock a large variety.

This is what I have for each month since each system launched:

PS4

*deleted*

Unless I f*d up somewhere, I got to 730,8 difference.

Thanks

 

[Aquamarine]

You do know actually. Many items in the store you can earn in game except for some plants. Just one for $4 is ridiculous seeing you unlock a large variety.

This is what I have for each month since each system launched:

Please don't post large amounts of recent, collated data like that in NPD threads. It's not a good idea.

 

[HighResTomato]

Still no Sony PR?