Support NeoGAF

[gundamkyoukai]

People citing PS3 as a success story is truly crazy. Nearly ran the company into the ground for at least the first half of the generation and the only reason it got up to 80 million was because it was the longest generation ever.

PS3 lose money but it hardly run Sony into the ground .
Have you seen how much they lost over the years with TV and Phones.
At least with PS3 they were able to set up PS4 and make money unlike the next 2 .

 

[Behlel]

Someone know the number of the first two year of xbox 360? How does x1 compare to the predecessor in the same time frame?

 

[Hero]

If that was the only reason it hit 80 million, is that the only reason the 360 did it as well?

Sure, I would argue that the generation being so long last time around allowed Microsoft to do an effective 'relaunch' of the system with the Slim model + Kinect.

PS3 lose money but it hardly run Sony into the ground .
Have you seen how much they lost over the years with TV and Phones.
At least with PS3 they were able to set up PS4 and make money unlike the next 2 .

While the PS3's abysmal performance for most of last generation isn't solely responsible (the economy in general had a big part to do with it), I would say that it was a big contributor in Sony's dire financial state.

Also the PS3 wiped away all the profits they made off of the PS1 and PS2 combined until the tail end of the generation.

 

[ethomaz]

Wasn't Xbox One approx 14 million last summer? It should be about 18 million or so by now.

I doubt it... I don't think they shipped 18m yet.

You guys have been saying it's at 13 million for what, a year now?
Every since Microsoft stopped releasing numbers XBO has been at 13 million sold...
-_-

After BF last year (2014) they are close to cross 10m (nobody knows if shipped or sold)... so if they crossed 13 million it was mid/late this year.

It's gonna be more like 16. There's no way they have only sold 3 million in a year.

I think it's safe to say that the XB1 must be around 15.5m - 16m by now.

It's likely at 16 million right now.

Let's make some maths...

US: 9.8m

Outside US is around 3x% of WW sales... so I will make the range for Xbone sales with US at 70% (minimum) and 60% (maximum).

US 9.8m (70% min) = WW 14m (100%)
US 9.8m (60% max) = WW 16.3m (100%)

So I believe WW sales for Xbone are between 14m and 16.3m... in the mid range (15m?) because I don't believe outside US reached 40% of Xbone total sales... it is less than that.

My Xbone WW estimate: 14-16.3m or ~15.2m

PS. People here trend to overestimate Xbone sales outside US... it barely sells outside US and UK to be fair... I'm confident it didn't crossed 16m yet it is more close to 15m.

 

[Bgamer90]

Let's make some maths...

US: 9.8m

Outside US is around 3x% of WW sales... so I will make the range for Xbone sales with US at 70% (minimum) and 60% (maximum).

US 9.8m (70% min) = WW 14m (100%)
US 9.8m (60% max) = WW 16.3m (100%)

So I believe WW sales for Xbone are between 14m and 16.3m... in the mid range (15m?) because I don't believe outside US reached 40% of Xbone total sales... it is less than that.

My Xbone WW estimate: 14-16.3m or ~15m

US sales for Xbox One are around 2/3 of the system's overall sales so I agree that it the system should be close to 16 million right now.

 

[ethomaz]

US sales for Xbox One are close to 2/3 of the system's overall sales so I agree that it the system should be around 16 million right now.

2/3 is 66%...

US 9.8m (66%) = WW 14.84m (100%)

No way 2/3 is close to 16m... it is less than 15m... to be close to 16m US needs to be less than 62%.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

While the PS3's abysmal performance for most of last generation isn't solely responsible (the economy in general had a big part to do with it), I would say that it was a big contributor in Sony's dire financial state.

Also the PS3 wiped away all the profits they made off of the PS1 and PS2 combined until the tail end of the generation.

As i said have you seen how much they lose over the years with TV ,Phones and even PC ( which is why they got rid of it ) .
Yes PS3 a play a part but it not as big as you seem to think .
They lost money on TVs for 10 years for eg .

 

[borghe]

Someone know the number of the first two year of xbox 360? How does x1 compare to the predecessor in the same time frame?

Better. 360 had a smaller launch, launched in fewer territories over that time, and didn't have anywhere near the first two full holidays in the US. At face value XBONE has been doing worse than 360 since last year, but cumulatively XBONE has been ahead the entire time because of those factors. It should fall behind in the US in the next month or so. Should fall behind worldwide within the first half of next year.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Not releasing numbers has more positives than doing so in a losing situation?
People on GAF can interpolate so it doesn't matter to them whether or not numbers are released, but at least you don't see major websites posting articles on XBO's numbers because they only do it when those numbers they use are official?




I don't mean about the sales, I mean about what the releasing of numbers officially does.



Because when I was interested in it there was no patch, then I stopped reading about it.



Or maybe I was swamped in other games and PS Store doesn't have a wishlist, and I had just forgotten about it?
I also got Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, maybe its similarity further perpetuated my disregard about Ethan Carter, because it had scratched that itch? It's also a smaller title so it's easier to forget about it when you get bombarded by big titles and other smaller ones.

But it does have a wishlist system

 

[Behlel]

Better. 360 had a smaller launch, launched in fewer territories over that time, and didn't have anywhere near the first two full holidays in the US. At face value XBONE has been doing worse than 360 since last year, but cumulatively XBONE has been ahead the entire time because of those factors. It should fall behind in the US in the next month or so. Should fall behind worldwide within the first half of next year.

I was talking only for US, sorry I forgot to write this.

 

[James93]

Nothing really surprising this month. Poor tomb raider though

 

[Bgamer90]

2/3 is 66%...

US 9.8m (66%) = WW 14.84m (100%)

No way 2/3 is close to 16m... it is less than 15m... to be close to 16m US needs to be less than 62%.

I don't think it's exactly 2/3. I do think it's close to that though (like 63-64%).

I think the system has reached 15 million and will be over 16 million by the end of this month (and I view that as a safe prediction since I'm positive the Xbox One will sell at least one million for December NPD alone).

 

[etta]

But it does have a wishlist system

Yea, now it does, and you gotta go to the web version of the PS Store to use it.

 

[3rdamention]

Wow, that is a massive increase YoY for the PS4, and almost 250K over the Xbone. Guess that goes to show that having a bunch of big exclusives crowded around the holidays really doesn't matter.

CoD Xbone SKU is higher than PS4's... wonder if that's because of the PS4 CoD bundle. Wonder what the split is.

I think it's also good to see that the Xbone was still up YoY (which we knew from the MS PR, but still) even without the crazy fire sales like last year.

Wii U flat. Kind of surprised by that considering the bundle they have this year was far better than last year's. System really is done then.

Yeah, price matters. Or, price in relation to the competition. Last year, Xbox One had a $70 price advantage $329 vs $399 at nearly every retailer, with packed in games and/or accessories, and some retailers even had additional gift cards. This year, you have "The Greatest Lineup in Xbox History" but price parity. And when you look at the Post Season Statistics for October and November, the Xbox One still gets outsold by over 200,000 units total with their greatest games lineup ever. And on top of that, these exclusive games from the Greatest Xbox Lineup Ever sold ok I guess, but didn't light the charts on fire at all outside of Halo5 (when not comparing it to past Halo Games).

Then you have the 3rd Party games, which both consoles have. And those appear to be what consumers want most.

 

[3rdamention]

I doubt it... I don't think they shipped 18m yet.


After BF last year (2014) they are close to cross 10m (nobody knows if shipped or sold)... so if they crossed 13 million it was mid/late this year.

They were close to 10 million shipped, but it was before Black Friday. They announced that on November 12th, 2014.


From The Verge:

Microsoft is revealing today that it will "shortly" have shipped 10 million Xbox One consoles to retailers.

 

[ethomaz]

I don't think it's exactly 2/3. I do think it's close to that though (like 63-64%).

I think the system has reached 15 million and will be over 16 million by the end of this month (and I view that as a safe prediction since I'm positive the Xbox One will sell at least one million for December NPD alone).

Ohhhh I agree... it will be 16m minimum after December... to be fair 16.5m is my bet.

 

[Mr Moose]

Or maybe I was swamped in other games and PS Store doesn't have a wishlist, and I had just forgotten about it?

Yes, it does.

Edit: Beaten.

 

[Dragon]

Yea, now it does, and you gotta go to the web version of the PS Store to use it.

Most people have a hard time admitting they're wrong. But this is truly a simple thing.

Also, the appeal to authority arguments you seem to use a lot are fallacious. We have seen time and time again that people in places of authority for companies are not infallible. We even had someone come from MS to do damage control when specs were out on this forum. They were incorrect then. It is not a valid argument.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Yea, now it does, and you gotta go to the web version of the PS Store to use it.

You can use it on the phone app.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

I don't think it's exactly 2/3. I do think it's close to that though (like 63-64%). .

Overprecision is strong (not only) with this one.

As ethomaz already quite well explained sales should be somewhere around 14-16 million. This estimate is as good as it gets, unless MS themselves provider some proper numbers.

 

[Intrigue]

I don't think it's exactly 2/3. I do think it's close to that though (like 63-64%).

I think the system has reached 15 million and will be over 16 million by the end of this month (and I view that as a safe prediction since I'm positive the Xbox One will sell at least one million for December NPD alone).

Back in Summer it was ~65-66%, was in some of the NPD threads then.

While Sony was around ~34-35%

 

[theprodigy]

Back in Summer it was ~65-66%, was in some of the NPD threads then.

While Sony was around ~34-35%

no it wasn't

 

[CosmicQueso]

What's really going to be fun is if/when Sony does the high performance console thing that was mentioned in that recent interview and ps vr. How many current owners will be buying a new ps4 if it's a "high performance" model, especially is psvr runs much better on it and vr takes off. Then things will really get crazy.

 

[ZOONAMI]

What's really going to be fun is if/when Sony does the high performance console thing that was mentioned in that recent interview and ps vr. How many current owners will be buying a new ps4 if it's a "high performance" model, especially is psvr runs much better on it and vr takes off. Then things will really get crazy.

A separate box for a bit of extra power will ship with psvr. They aren't going to ship a different ps4 sku with more horsepower for anything other than vr. Otherwise you'd have a segmented market and confusion about what games will work with which system.

 

[Bgamer90]

Overprecision is strong (not only) with this one.

As ethomaz already quite well explained sales should be somewhere around 14-16 million. This estimate is as good as it gets, unless MS themselves provider some proper numbers.

Yes, and I agreed with him. I simply stated why I did. I never said what I stated in my post as fact.
____________________

What's really going to be fun is if/when Sony does the high performance console thing that was mentioned in that recent interview and ps vr. How many current owners will be buying a new ps4 if it's a "high performance" model, especially is psvr runs much better on it and vr takes off. Then things will really get crazy.

I think we'll see a new PS4 model with an easier way to hook up VR (similar to how later Xbox 360 models had kinect ports). A new PS4 model with extra power though? I don't think that will happen. I don't think many PS4 owners interested in VR would take that well.

 

[Welfare]

Why are you guys trying to figure out the Xbox One's LTD? It's pointless at this point because some people can't agree on how "dead" the thing is outside of US/UK.

Anything below 15m at this point is such a fucking lowball anyway this far into the year.

 

[etta]

Yes, it does.

Edit: Beaten.

You can use it on the phone app.

Most people have a hard time admitting they're wrong. But this is truly a simple thing.

Also, the appeal to authority arguments you seem to use a lot are fallacious. We have seen time and time again that people in places of authority for companies are not infallible. We even had someone come from MS to do damage control when specs were out on this forum. They were incorrect then. It is not a valid argument.

1. What use was the wish list to me in November for Ethan Carter when the game came out in July and July being when I had forgotten about it? How would I add a game to the wishlist when it was not on my mind?

2. @Dragon second argument, when you argue that they should release numbers you are also arguing you know better than them, which I can guarantee you it's not true. They have a lot more to consider about the consequences of posting the numbers officially than you are aware of, that's why they are shifting to reporting MAUs and online activity.
You're not seeing the whole picture because you can't, you don't work with whoever decides these things there.
You say that them not releasing numbers doesn't stop people from speculating? Who are these people, GAF? Are there articles from major places like ArsTechnica or IGN with headlines such as "XBO passes XX millions", such as the PS4 articles? No, because they don't have official numbers and they don't speculate in headlines. That's what not releasing official numbers stops from happening, at the least.

 

[QaaQer]

A separate box for a bit of extra power will ship with psvr. They aren't going to ship a different ps4 sku with more horsepower for anything other than vr. Otherwise you'd have a segmented market and confusion about what games will work with which system.

Dev kits have been out for a while, no? Any rumours abouta power box or ps4+?

 

[small44]

People citing PS3 as a success story is truly crazy. Nearly ran the company into the ground for at least the first half of the generation and the only reason it got up to 80 million was because it was the longest generation ever.

Was it really the case?
PS1 production stopped in 2006 that's 12 years,PS2 production ended in 2013 that's 13 years.
And the reason why ps3 gen stayed that long it's because there was still demands.
The snes stayed on market 13 years yet it only sold half of what ps3 did.

 

[Shenmue]

1. What use was the wish list to me in November for Ethan Carter when the game came out in July and July being when I had forgotten about it? How would I add a game to the wishlist when it was not on my mind?

2. @Dragon second argument, when you argue that they should release numbers you are also arguing you know better than them, which I can guarantee you it's not true. They have a lot more to consider about the consequences of posting the numbers officially than you are aware of, that's why they are shifting to reporting MAUs and online activity.
You're not seeing the whole picture because you can't, you don't work with whoever decides these things there.
You say that them not releasing numbers doesn't stop people from speculating? Who are these people, GAF? Are there articles from major places like ArsTechnica or IGN with headlines such as "XBO passes XX millions", such as the PS4 articles? No, because they don't have official numbers and they don't speculate in headlines. That's what not releasing official numbers stops from happening, at the least.

Huh? There are articles speculating how much they've sold. They are mostly by Kyle Orland.

 

[Mr Moose]

1. What use was the wish list to me in November for Ethan Carter when the game came out in July and July being when I had forgotten about it? How would I add a game to the wishlist when it was not on my mind?

I think the wishlist has been there for a while now. It doesn't matter though, I forget about games all the time (and have never used the wishlist).

Edit: It apparently came out in October? I could've sworn I've seen wishlist on there before then.

 

[etta]

Huh? There are articles speculating how much they've sold. They are mostly by Kyle Orland.

Is the speculation the main purpose of the article or is it done as a comparison to the main purpose of the article, which is how much the PS4 sold?
Are there articles with the purpose (and headline) of showing XBO sales data based on speculation?

I think the wishlist has been there for a while now. It doesn't matter though, I forget about games all the time (and have never used the wishlist).

October 22

 

[Primethius]

The entire purpose of hiding the XB1 numbers is to hide how terrible they look compared to the PS4 numbers. I'm not sure why we're entertaining other ideas.

That most will speculate on the actual LTD numbers and have to resort to giving ranges for the high and low end is just a bonus for MS.

 

[Occam]

If we wouldn't get any numbers, all we'd have left would be Microsoft's worthless "mixed reality" marketing BS. Thanks but no thanks.
Information is good. It's the most effective defense against bullshit.

 

[Pezus]

Where are you guys getting the US = 2/3 of XB1 sales from? Maybe it was true for the first few months but that was mostly because it hadn't launched in a whole lot of markets back then.
My guess would be around 57-60% or so, putting it at between 16 and 17m as of the end of Nov. Seems reasonable, and PS4 would then be around 2:1 to XB1

 

[semiconscious]

Yeah, price matters. Or, price in relation to the competition. Last year, Xbox One had a $70 price advantage $329 vs $399 at nearly every retailer, with packed in games and/or accessories, and some retailers even had additional gift cards. This year, you have "The Greatest Lineup in Xbox History" but price parity. And when you look at the Post Season Statistics for October and November, the Xbox One still gets outsold by over 200,000 units total with their greatest games lineup ever. And on top of that, these exclusive games from the Greatest Xbox Lineup Ever sold ok I guess, but didn't light the charts on fire at all outside of Halo5 (when not comparing it to past Halo Games).

Then you have the 3rd Party games, which both consoles have. And those appear to be what consumers want most.

so, would that make it 'the most under-appreciated lineup in xbox history'? ...

 

[Y2Kev]

Actually it's because MAU is all you need

 

[DeepEnigma]

The entire purpose of hiding the XB1 numbers is to hide how terrible they look compared to the PS4 numbers. I'm not sure why we're entertaining other ideas.

That most will speculate on the actual LTD numbers and have to resort to giving ranges for the high and low end is just a bonus for MS.

Agreed. If they were leading, the PR would be the same as it was last gen. They can still focus on MAU, while still releasing numbers, however, those numbers do not look good at all compared to the competition, thus sticking out like a sore thumb to the general public.

 

[Primethius]

Where are you guys getting the US = 2/3 of XB1 sales from? Maybe it was true for the first few months but that was mostly because it hadn't launched in a whole lot of markets back then.
My guess would be around 57-60% or so, putting it at between 16 and 17m as of the end of Nov. Seems reasonable, and PS4 would then be around 2:1 to XB1

I think the ratio's been 57-60% for a while, or hovering around that. And that's after the launches in tier 2-3-whatever countries.

If anything, I would suspect that the percentage that US accounts for has increased after this month given the prominence of Black Friday in the States compared to the rest of the world, albeit temporarily.

so, would that make it 'the most under-appreciated lineup in xbox history'? ...

Ha!

Actually it's because MAU is all you need

MAU shunned me. I'm starting a rebellion. Whose with me?

 

[ethomaz]

Where are you guys getting the US = 2/3 of XB1 sales from? Maybe it was true for the first few months but that was mostly because it hadn't launched in a whole lot of markets back then.
My guess would be around 57-60% or so, putting it at between 16 and 17m as of the end of Nov. Seems reasonable, and PS4 would then be around 2:1 to XB1

I really doubt it is less than 60% that is already being optimistic.

Let's split.

US: 9.8m
UK: ~2m

For 16-17m you need EU (without UK) and RotW to account for over 4-5m... pretty hard to believe.

 

[Pezus]

I really doubt it is less than 60% that is already being optimistic.

Let's split.

US: 9.8m
UK: ~2m

For 16-17m you need EU (without UK) and RotW to account for over 4-5m... pretty hard to believe.

When it accounts for almost 20m for PS4? Not that hard to believe imo. 4:1 in the rest of the world is a huge difference.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Could have missed it - but did Sony ever send out a PR statement?

You'd think with the great November sales in their console history, they'd be pretty vocal about it.

 

[Loudninja]

When it accounts for almost 20m for PS4? Not that hard to believe imo. 4:1 in the rest of the world is a huge difference.

Very different story for Sony though.

Look at Germany:

Germany Hardware LTD through March 2015:
PS4: 1.600,000
Xbox One: 378,000

YTD:
PS4: 208,000
XBO: 47,000

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1039840

 

[Welfare]

I really doubt it is less than 60% that is already being optimistic.

Let's split.

US: 9.8m
UK: ~2m

For 16-17m you need EU (without UK) and RotW to account for over 4-5m... pretty hard to believe.

Take away ~1m from that 4-5m because 11 countries sold ~800k in 2013.

3-4m in almost 2 years is not that hard to believe.

 

[Pezus]

Very different story for Sony though.

Look at Germany:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1039840

Germany is an extreme case. I don't think any other of the major countries has that big of a gap, except Japan.

But still, that is "only" 4.2:1, so if we assume PS4 has about 20m in the world outside of US+UK by now and use the same ratio we would get XB1 at around 4.8m there and so 9.8+4.8m+~2m = ~16.6m

In any case, there is not that much room for a much lower number. Do you guys think we're looking at like 2m in this huge part of the world? Seems too low

 

[Loudninja]

Germany is an extreme case. I don't think any other of the major countries has that big of a gap, except Japan.

But still, that is "only" 4.2:1, so if we assume PS4 has about 20m in the world outside of US+UK by now and use the same ratio we would get XB1 at around 4.8m there and so 9.7+4.8m+~2m = ~16.5m

France in 2014:

France (December 2014)
PS4 1.1M
XB1 416k

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=162536242&postcount=36

Spain:
PS4 700.000
XB1 ~ 78.000
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1065407

Italy:
PS4 owns 70% share of current-gen consoles in Italy
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1045420

 

[ethomaz]

When it accounts for almost 20m for PS4? Not that hard to believe imo. 4:1 in the rest of the world is a huge difference.

That is the reason PS4 sell good outside US and UK... Xbone is dad outside these two places.

 

[IvanJ]

When it accounts for almost 20m for PS4? Not that hard to believe imo. 4:1 in the rest of the world is a huge difference.

4:1 is a huge difference, but it is a very realistic one. When we have reports like the one from Germany that puts it at 4:1 there, coupled with Sony's claims of 70-90% share in European countries (so average of 80:20, or 4:1), and then about 70 or so markets that don't even sell XOne.

 

[ethomaz]

Germany is an extreme case. I don't think any other of the major countries has that big of a gap, except Japan.

But still, that is "only" 4.2:1, so if we assume PS4 has about 20m in the world outside of US+UK by now and use the same ratio we would get XB1 at around 4.8m there and so 9.8+4.8m+~2m = ~16.6m

In any case, there is not that much room for a much lower number. Do you guys think we're looking at like 2m in this huge part of the world? Seems too low

Germany is not extrem... PS4 lead in others countries is bigger than Germany... Spain is close to 9:1.

Like I said people trend to overestimate the sales for Xbone outside US and UK.

Xbone is dad outside US and UK.

 

[3rdamention]

Could have missed it - but did Sony ever send out a PR statement?

You'd think with the great November sales in their console history, they'd be pretty vocal about it.

Yeah, it was pretty mundane. No percentage growths, no MAUs, no multi month comparisons, no PSN hours logged. It was pretty boring.

“PlayStation 4 is the top selling console in the United States during the month of November according to NPD. We have hit several key milestones over the last few weeks. Prior to Black Friday, we announced we have sold through more than 30.2 million PS4s to consumers around the world and that PS4 continues to exhibit the fastest growth in PlayStation hardware history. In addition, Black Friday sales were the strongest in PlayStation history demonstrating more people game now than ever before. We are also pleased to announce November was the biggest month ever for PlayStation Store indicating a strong digital marketplace complementing healthy retail sales.”