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[Stumpokapow]

We're getting bit off topic here, but why would you ever think Fallout 3 would have good legs? It is:

1) Single player
2) Story driven
3) Third in the franchise
4) "Hardcore blockbuster"

All of those qualities tend to indicate truncated legs. The game clearly overshipped.

I'm not so sure. For example, F3 GOTY came out this month... how did it do? If it's... say... 100k, I think that would indicate very long legs. If it's, say.... 30k, I think that would indicate low legs.

That being said that 4.7million day one ship figure was an obvious stuff job

 

[Haunted]

huh, I think Borderlands probably suffered more from Uncharted 2 being released.

You mean kind of like a Wii situation? First party output is too strong, so third party sales suffer as a result?

Possible.

My statement was more about his reference to the controller though, I can hardly think of FPS sales suffering because of the Dualshock.

Yeah, the number of people who would decide this based on the controller preference is probably negligible. It's just one factor.

 

[Unidentified]

shipped, worldwide, and i'll call bullshit on those numbers anyway, because it's below 600k in the us (note: actually might be over 600k right now, i don't have npd numbers to know) and just above 500k in japan, and europe ain't making up the difference.

The only NPD (seems to be U.S. specific) numbers for Prologue (beyond the first month) are these which put it anywhere between 500k and 750k. Polyphony had 730k shipped(or sold?) for North America on their website at that point.

 

[Grecco]

Can you even buy WoW expansions and Sims games via DD?

yes

 

[Vinci]

Can you even buy WoW expansions and Sims games via DD?

WoW, yes. I don't know about the Sims.

EDIT: Grecco-owned.

 

[ukas]

Can you even buy WoW expansions and Sims games via DD?

WoW expansions you can, I'm not sure about the Sims.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Is anyone really that shocked at Forza3? I love it but lets be honest unless you really like sim racers there is not much reason to get it if you already have Forza2. And it seems to be selling at about the same rate... where people really expecting it to be a blockbuster?

 

[MrPliskin]

You mean kind of like a Wii situation? The first party output is too strong, so third party sales suffer as a result? Possible.

Yea, but it's no where near as strong. I just think the advertisement for Uncharted 2 (and the high scores) probably pushed PS3 consumers over the edge to buy that over Borderlands and / or other multiplat titles.

That, and we already know that the PS3 user base isn't as rabid when it comes to the consumption of games as the 360 user base. I think it's a combination of factors, with the key one being the release of a high profile exclusive title during the same time period, while already having established credibility as a franchise.

 

[Archie]

I wonder why The Sims isn't available on Steam. It seems to be available at other DD sites (D2D, GG, Impulse, etc).

 

[Opiate]

I'm not so sure. For example, F3 GOTY came out this month... how did it do? If it's... say... 100k, I think that would indicate very long legs. If it's, say.... 30k, I think that would indicate low legs.

That being said that 4.7million day one ship figure was an obvious stuff job

So, your evidence that I may be wrong is that the GotY edition could have, in theory, sold 100k? It's pretty hard to argue with hypotheticals that have no empirical substantiation (or refutation). Why not hypothesize that the GotY edition sold 500k? Not only would it have legs, but it would have fantastic ones!

The game is hardly a bomb, but there's no tangible reason to believe this was the case, Stump.

 

[kswiston]

WoW expansions you can, I'm not sure about the Sims.

Sims 3 is on D2D. I don`t think the others were available for DD. Maybe from EAs store, but I have never bothered visiting that site.

 

[Kai Dracon]

WOW at Borderlands ! 3rd place only with 360 ? I certainly didn't expect that much.

By the standards of things these days, Borderlands is practically a Cinderella story for a mid-level developer making it big with a brand new IP.

 

[BattleMonkey]

So, your evidence that I may be wrong is that the GotY edition could have, in theory, sold 100k? It's pretty hard to argue with hypotheticals that have no empirical substantiation (or refutation). Why not hypothesize that the GotY edition sold 500k? Not only would it have legs, but it would have fantastic ones!

The game is hardly a bomb, but there's no tangible reason to believe this was the case, Stump.

But theres no evidence that it didn't really sell either. If a game has legs is something that is not easy to tell since it usually involves under the chart sales over a long period which we have no way of seeing. And as I said we don't know how well the PC version did especially in Europe where RPGs do pretty well and we rarely get numbers out of outside of UK. I'm sure it overshipped but I would have no doubt there was high retail demand for it. If the game was so overly shipped and clogging retail shelves they would have not been accepting of a GOTY release

 

[Sushen]

Is anyone really that shocked at Forza3? I love it but lets be honest unless you really like sim racers there is not much reason to get it if you already have Forza2. And it seems to be selling at about the same rate... where people really expecting it to be a blockbuster?

Racing games and fighting games are dinosaurs. GT5 will sell due to name recognition like SF4 did, but the genre is moving away from mainstream. There is not much mainstream about tweaking cars.

Good to see Uncharted 2 doing well, while my expectation of <0.25 of MW2 sales was correct. Also, congrats to Gearbox for Borderlands, sleeper hit.

 

[LCfiner]

By the standards of things these days, Borderlands is practically a Cinderella story for a mid-level developer making it big with a brand new IP.

Indeed. I was pretty surprised about the Borderlands performance. Buzz was pretty much nil till a few weeks before launch.

congrats to Gearbox. They needed a hit after BIA fizzled.


Oh, and i doubt anyone cares or remembers, but I said last month that I expected a bump in PSP sales with the launch of the Go. nothing huge, but maybe an extra 10 to 20%.

loooooooooool.

the Go is not having much success at retail, to be polite.

 

[Opiate]

But theres no evidence that it didn't really sell either.

Yes, there is. We have patterns for games of its nature. It is:

1) Single player
2) Third in a franchise
3) Story driven
4) "Hardcore Blockbuster."

All of those qualities indicate truncated legs. These qualities are well established indicators by observing trends from dozens of other games we have fuller data on. Such evidence isn't nearly as facile as "well, the budget edition could have sold a ton."

If a game has legs is something that is not easy to tell since it usually involves under the chart sales over a long period which we have no way of seeing.

Right. So we have to base our assumptions on the patterns these types of games typically follow. A game like Singstar, as an example, probably has good legs, and is still selling comparatively well even though we haven't seen it on the EU charts for some time. From what we know, games of the Fallout 3 type typically do not have good legs, which is why I don't understand your assumption that it does.

Is it possible Fallout 3 had legs? Sure. Absolutely. It happens. But historical precedent doesn't make it likely.

 

[Rocksteady33]

Anyone have recap/LTD numbers that are not included in the OP?

 

[AstroLad]

Oh, and i doubt anyone cares or remembers, but I said last month that I expected a bump in PSP sales with the launch of the Go. nothing huge, but maybe an extra 10 to 20%.

I remembered. And I'm glad you acknowledged and addressed it. I still have a long list of people I'm waiting to see post (on Go predictions, and other topics too).

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

You mean kind of like a Wii situation? First party output is too strong, so third party sales suffer as a result?

Except for the fact that Wii third party suffers even without a first party offering to contend with.

 

[Stumpokapow]

So, your evidence that I may be wrong is that the GotY edition could have, in theory, sold 100k? It's pretty hard to argue with hypotheticals that have no empirical substantiation (or refutation). Why not hypothesize that the GotY edition sold 500k? Not only would it have legs, but it would have fantastic ones!

The game is hardly a bomb, but there's no tangible reason to believe this was the case, Stump.

Oh, I should restate.

I personally feel that FO3 has legs (price has retained pretty well, I still see it getting played pretty frequently, the DLC packs were popular on Microsoft charts, I still see it getting talked about--all anecdotal of course).

I have no evidence in terms of NPD numbers to substantiate this. I think if we wanted to look for evidence, we'd look at what the GOTY edition, which just launched, would have done. If anyone had numbers for the GOTY edition that they'd post, I think that could probably help inform us on this issue.

I didn't say 500k because, well, it's not in the top 10. I was being realistic; I think 100-125k is a best case scenario and would demonstrate continued interest in the game, whereas 20-50k would demonstrate that the game had largely run its course.

 

[Opiate]

Except for the fact that Wii third party suffers even without a first party offering to contend with.

Honest question here: what is your explanation for third party struggles on the Wii, then? If it isn't first party competition, what is it?

I'm always interested to see people's opinions on the topic, because everybody has a different explanation.

 

[Sean]

I'm glad for Uncharted 2 but it really should have sold a lot more - this is the type of game that should've cracked a million in it's first month. It's a shooter, the graphical showpiece game of the PS3, had universal acclaim by reviewers (96 metacritic) and gamers, great advertising, etc.

Sony just can't seem to manage a 'blockbuster' first party release. Prior to this, the best debut for a first party PS3 title was Resistance 2 at 385k last year.

 

[jeremy1456]

Except for the fact that Wii third party suffers even without a first party offering to contend with.

So there's not any Wii first party games in the top 10?

Wow, I must be seeing things.

 

[Opiate]

Oh, I should restate.

I personally feel that FO3 has legs. I have no evidence in terms of NPD numbers to substantiate this. I think if we wanted to look for evidence, we'd look at what the GOTY edition, which just launched, would have done. If anyone had numbers for the GOTY edition that they'd post, I think that could probably help inform us on this issue.

I didn't say 500k because, well, it's not in the top 10. I was being realistic; I think 100-125k is a best case scenario and would demonstrate continued interest in the game, whereas 20-50k would demonstrate that the game had largely run its course.

Why do you "feel" it has legs, Stump? I strongly believe that sales threads are about empirical data and reasonable evidence, and I loathe the inclusion of "feelings" in to such discussions. It's impossible to refute, and it's precisely the sort of mindset that fanboys come from. Which is why I'm so surprised you'd take such a position.

Did you enjoy this game a great deal? Because that's the only conclusion I can come to to explain why you've given leave of your typically socratic self.

 

[kswiston]

I'm not so sure. For example, F3 GOTY came out this month... how did it do? If it's... say... 100k, I think that would indicate very long legs. If it's, say.... 30k, I think that would indicate low legs.

That being said that 4.7million day one ship figure was an obvious stuff job

October 2008 NPD sales for Fallout 3 were as follows:

Fallout 3 (X360) - 375k
Fallout 3 (PS3) - Came in number 13 for the month. I can`t find the actual sales number, but tenth place was 193k, so it was less than that.

Wikipedia states that NPD reported total Fallout 3 sales of 610k in October 2008 across 360, PS3, and PC. I cant find a reliable reference for that number though. If it is accurate, PS3 + PC sales were 235k.

In February 2009`s NPD thread, we got a bunch of leaked LTD numbers for various titles through the end of Jan 2009. Here were the Fallout numbers after three months:

Fallout 3 (X360) - 1.14M
Fallout 3 (PS3) - 452k

A 600k launch, to 1600k+ in 3 months is a sign of decent legs. By now, with PC sales, I would imagine that US only sales are in the 2M range.

The fact that I could have bought both Dead Space and Mirror`s Edge for $10-20 pretty much everywhere as of this spring, yet Fallout 3 remained at basically full price until recently makes me think that the game was not majorly overshipped.

 

[GregLombardi]

I'm glad for Uncharted 2 but it really should have sold a lot more - this is the type of game that should've cracked a million in it's first month. It's a shooter, the graphical showpiece game of the PS3, had universal acclaim by reviewers (96 metacritic) and gamers, great advertising, etc.

Sony just can't seem to manage a 'blockbuster' first party release. Prior to this, the best debut for a first party PS3 title was Resistance 2 at 385k last year.

I REALLY want to play Uncharted and Uncharted 2 but don't have a PS3 yet. I'm sure I'll get it eventually. The game has such acclaim (yet low relative sales to other blockbusters) it reminds me of RE4, which begs the question to those who have played it: Is it as good as that game?

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Honest question here: what is your explanation for third party struggles on the Wii, then? If it isn't first party competition, what is it?

I'm always interested to see people's opinions on the topic, because everybody has a different explanation.

I have no idea if this is correct but I think its 2 things:
1. A lot of the Wii audience are casual gamers and purchased a wii for the same reasons a lot of non gamers bought rockband and such.
2. Word of mouth. Like Playstation owners there isn't a lot of word of mouth outside of your immediate friends when a big game is coming out.


What do you think?

 

[Haunted]

Except for the fact that Wii third party suffers even without a first party offering to contend with.

Because people are just waiting for Nintendo's next game. So basically you're saying that Nintendo has third party problems because their own output is... too good.

/ryan o'donnell

Spoiler

Yea, but it's no where near as strong. I just think the advertisement for Uncharted 2 (and the high scores) probably pushed PS3 consumers over the edge to buy that over Borderlands and / or other multiplat titles.

That, and we already know that the PS3 user base isn't as rabid when it comes to the consumption of games as the 360 user base. I think it's a combination of factors, with the key one being the release of a high profile exclusive title during the same time period, while already having established credibility as a franchise.

That seems like a fair assessment and something we've established it in many NPD threads before: third parties making an HD multiplat game should prioritise the 360 version - that's where the money is.

 

[Opiate]

October 2008 NPD sales for Fallout 3 were as follows:

Fallout 3 (X360) - 375k
Fallout 3 (PS3) - Came in number 13 for the month. I can`t find the actual sales number, but tenth place was 193k, so it was less than that.

Wikipedia states that NPD reported total Fallout 3 sales of 610k in October 2008 across 360, PS3, and PC. I cant find a reliable reference for that number though. If it is accurate, PS3 + PC sales were 235k.

In February 2009`s NPD thread, we got a bunch of leaked LTD numbers for various titles through the end of Jan 2009. Here were the Fallout numbers after three months:

Fallout 3 (X360) - 1.14M
Fallout 3 (PS3) - 452k

600k to 1600k+ in 3 months is a sign of decent legs. By now, with PC sales, I would imagine that US only sales are in the 2M range.

The fact that I could have bought both Dead Space and Mirror`s Edge for $10-20 pretty much everywhere as of this spring, yet Fallout 3 remained at basically full price until recently makes me think that the game was not majorly overshipped.

Now this is the sort of evidence I was looking for. Thank you.

This does indeed indicate that Fallout 3 had reasonable legs. However, as a US-centric game, I'm not sure this puts it at 5M sold even today, let alone 12 months ago.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Yes, there is. We have patterns for games of its nature. It is:

1) Single player
2) Third in a franchise
3) Story driven
4) "Hardcore Blockbuster."

All of those qualities indicate truncated legs. These qualities are well established indicators by observing trends from dozens of other games we have fuller data on. Such evidence isn't nearly as facile as "well, the budget edition could have sold a ton."

Again that is not evidence. Trends from previous games or conjecture does not equal evidence. Solid factual sales data, is evidence. Assumptions is what we can make but let's not call it evidence when evidence is tangible proof of truth. What kswiston posted is some actual evidence and not speculation being called evidence.

The number seems pretty crazy high, but we see no real proof that retailers weren't able to eventually sell through most of that even if sales were needed.

Fallout 3 also bucks many of the trends by being a sequel many years from its previous entry, tons of hype, it has no real relation to the previous sequels nor did players need to have played them. The gameplay took major changes especially by making the game heavily into a FPS instead of the isometric RPG that it used to be. There is alot that sets it apart from the "trends".

 

[Vinci]

Because people are just waiting for Nintendo's next game. So basically you're saying that Nintendo has third party problems because their own output is... too good.

When you're the lone flower in a sea of shit (for the most part), you're bound to draw some attention.

 

[Opiate]

I have no idea if this is correct but I think its 2 things:
1. A lot of the Wii audience are casual gamers and purchased a wii for the same reasons a lot of non gamers bought rockband and such.
2. Word of mouth. Like Playstation owners there isn't a lot of word of mouth outside of your immediate friends when a big game is coming out.


What do you think?

I think it's a variety of things, starting with a misunderstanding of the audience, to poor budgeting, to a consistent trend of putting all of the best teams and largest franchises on the PS3/360 instead of the Wii.

Can you go in to detail about number 1 -- how would this affect third party sales in particular? If the suggestion is that casual gamers don't buy games, then why do Nintendo's own first party efforts continue to sell well?

As for number 2, why didn't this problem (word of mouth) affect the PS2 in the way that it has affected the Wii? In theory, the PS2 had no more "word of mouth" than the Wii does, assuming your example is XBL friends list, which is what I'm sure you're talking about here.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Yes, there is. We have patterns for games of its nature. It is:

1) Single player
2) Third in a franchise
3) Story driven
4) "Hardcore Blockbuster."

All of those qualities indicate truncated legs. These qualities are well established indicators by observing trends from dozens of other games we have fuller data on. Such evidence isn't nearly as facile as "well, the budget edition could have sold a ton."



Right. So we have to base our assumptions on the patterns these types of games typically follow. A game like Singstar, as an example, probably has good legs, and is still selling comparatively well even though we haven't seen it on the EU charts for some time. From what we know, games of the Fallout 3 type typically do not have good legs, which is why I don't understand your assumption that it does.

Is it possible Fallout 3 had legs? Sure. Absolutely. It happens. But historical precedent doesn't make it likely.

Fallout and Oblivion both sold pretty well for many months after release in PAL territories. Of course, there we get "data" more often (steady weekly sellers aren't going to chart in NPD vs a one-big-week flash in the pan), many countries' charts show only combined SKU sales (which skews towards multiplatform games obviously), and for the UK we always get a top 40. PS3 software sales are also stronger in PAL territories than in North America for the most part, so many multiplats pick up some slack over there even if we don't get solid numbers outside of quarterly reports.

Without the comparatively extended charts, we wouldn't be able to see the continued popping in and out of the charts of COD4/GTAIV, which probably account for the millions of sales that they picked up outside of their launch window.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Why do you "feel" it has legs, Stump? I strongly believe that sales threads are about empirical data and reasonable evidence, and I loathe the inclusion of "feelings" in to such discussions. It's impossible to refute, and it's precisely the sort of mindset that fanboys come from. Which is why I'm so surprised you'd take such a position.

Did you enjoy this game a great deal? Because that's the only conclusion I can come to to explain why you've given leave of your typically socratic self.

I actually edited in the, again, admittedly less rigorous than NPD, evidence I had for why I believed the game continues to sell well. "(price has retained pretty well, I still see it getting played pretty frequently, the DLC packs were popular on Microsoft charts, I still see it getting talked about--all anecdotal of course)"

Also note that discussion in this thread is bigtime kneecapped by the fact that many people don't have NPD data and those who do can't share it. If F3 GOTY did do 100k first month no one would be able to confirm or deny it anyway even if they had the numbers and wanted to confirm it.

For what it's worth, I did enjoy the game a good deal. But I've also finished maybe 70 or 80 games since FO3 was released so I'd like to think that if my analysis of things was coloured by my enjoyment, I'd be barred from discussing sales at all

 

[JudgeN]

Fallout 3 has been on sale several times during the last year but I guess it hasn't had a universal price drop until the GOTY version came out. But I believe that always how Bethesda works. If we haven't got any updated shipment totals in a year, wouldn't that support them over shipping the game?

 

[Y2Kev]

Nice for Atlus with DS

 

[Opiate]

Again that is not evidence.

Yes it is.

Trends from previous games or conjecture does not equal evidence.

Yes it does. That's how evidence works: you establish a pattern of behavior. In theory, if games of said type behaved like [X] consistently in the past, then it should continue to behave that way in the future. That sort of logical process is precisely the sort of thinking that criminal law and scientific theory are based upon.

How do we know that, if I were to drop a heavy rock from hundreds of feet above your head, that it would fall on you and hurt you severely? I've never dropped a rock from a great height, nor have I ever seen you before.

Answer: because in the past, when such actions occured, that's what happened. It is logical to assume that the pattern will continue. The same basic logic applies here: if we have a historical pattern, it is logical to assume that the pattern will continue.


Of course, the pattern did not continue. Kwiston has provided evidence of this. That doesn't change the fundamental method of logical thinking, however. Outside of a very small subset of scientific laws (such as gravity -- I chose the example above purely because of its uncontested simplicity), no pattern is absolute.

 

[Kusagari]

Demon's Souls breaking 100k here in one month is absolutely amazing.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Fallout 3 has been on sale several times during the last year but I guess it hasn't had a universal price drop until the GOTY version came out. But I believe that always how Bethesda works. If we haven't got any updated shipment totals in a year, wouldn't that support them over shipping the game?

There's no question that the 4.7 million day one shipment was an enormous stuff job.

 

[Mooreberg]

Uncharted 2 should have sold better. Every PS3 owner should have it. Sony has a real problem in matching the blockbusters that Microsoft first party has.

How long did it take the original to sell a million copies? When you launch a franchise on a system that was $399 to $499 as the PS3 was in 2007, it isn't going to catch on the way it should. They should hope that people who are just buying a PS3 now pick it up, but maybe these people are more likely to buy stuff like Modern Warfare 2 and Gran Turismo instead. This isn't really the first case of a well reviewed PS3 exclusive doing well, but not as well as it should.

Isn't Halo the only major selling actual first party MS title though? Rest have been third party games they got exclusivity too.

It is their only first party blockbuster, but they have been smart about getting games like Gears of War and Mass Effect exclusive. Plus they are getting the lion's share of sales on big third party releases.

 

[Ken Masters]

Dear Insomniac,

Please stop making Ratchet games.

yeah , death to good games

 

[Pristine_Condition]

There goes any idea of a Digital download only future for a little bit.

...only if you ignore the iPhone/iPhone Touch, other smartphones, and PC. But that's kinda stupid to do, IMO.

 

[SapientWolf]

Tekken 6 needs a complete fucking overhaul. Blazblue and SF4 are much much better.

Yeah, I wasn't really impressed, and I consider myself to be a huge fighting game fan.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Yes it does. That's how evidence works: you establish a pattern of behavior. In theory, if games of said type behaved like [X] consistently in the past, then it should continue to behave that way in the future. That sort of logical process is precisely the sort of thinking that criminal law and scientific theory are based upon.

How do we know that, if I were to drop a heavy rock from hundreds of feet above your head, that it would fall on you and hurt you severely? I've never dropped a rock from a great height, nor have I ever seen you before.

Answer: because in the past, when such actions occured, that's what happened. It is logical to assume that the pattern will continue. The same basic logic applies here: if we have a historical pattern, it is logical to assume that the pattern will continue.


Of course, the pattern did not continue. Kwiston has provided evidence of this. That doesn't change the fundamental method of logical thinking, however. Outside of a very small subset of scientific laws (such as gravity -- I chose the example above purely because of its uncontested simplicity), no pattern is absolute.

Sorry but as someone who had worked so long in the legal system, the definition of evidence is just not the same. Evidence has to be tangible physical proof of a point, not conjecture based on past experiences or assumptions.

 

[Stumpokapow]

It is their only first party blockbuster, but they have been smart about getting games like Gears of War and Mass Effect exclusive. Plus they are getting the lion's share of sales on big third party releases.

You wouldn't consider Fable a blockbuster? I would. I guess it depends on where you draw the line between blockbuster and hit. Also Left 4 Dead would qualify as another Gears/Mass Effect style "smart exclusive".

 

[TruHero]

I can't say I'm surprised with R&C CiT's low sales. ToD was a letdown for me. Far too easy....and just not on UYA's level at all.

I'm debating whether to buy CiT for my bro for Christmas, or just wait 'til it gets discounted.

 

[BattleMonkey]

You wouldn't consider Fable a blockbuster? I would. I guess it depends on where you draw the line between blockbuster and hit. Also Left 4 Dead would qualify as another Gears/Mass Effect style "smart exclusive".

They've had many million+ sellers from third party "exclusives". Gears is obviously their first big one but we had Dead Rising and Ghost Recon AW both selling extremely well and were former exclusives. Lost Planet did well originally as an exclusive too.

 

[Arpharmd B]

Forza 3 released on the same day as Tekken 6 and DJ Hero.

I'm not surprised to see luke warm sales. My friends list, outside of one person, completely ignored the game. For reference, I'm pretty sure a good 40% of my list has Forza 2. For me, I couldn't justify buying the game again at the time, despite interest. I love Forza 2, enjoyed the campaign, but at the time I wanted a totally new game, instead of driving on mostly the same courses with (way) better graphics, so I went with Tekken...

Wrong choice, and am thinking of trading Tekken 6 at this point. So, +1 for November pickup for sure. Hope there are still collectors editions laying around.

 

[Opiate]

Sorry but as someone who had worked so long in the legal system, the definition of evidence is just not the same. Evidence has to be tangible physical proof of a point, not conjecture based on past experiences or assumptions.

You are simply wrong. It isn't even an obscure legal concept: circumstantial evidence frequently is and has been allowed in court. In fact, on occassion, convictions are made based entirely on circumstantial evidence. Usually it's used as an assistant to direct evidence, rather than as a replacement for it, but it does happen.

"Circumstantial" evidence is any evidence that indirectly implies guilt. For example, a ballistics expert can verify that a bullet which killed a victim was fired from a gun owned by a defendant. Is this direct evidence that the defendant fired the weapon? No, it is not -- however, in the past, it is typically true that the owner of a gun is far more likely to fire the weapon than any other random individual is. It isn't an absolute rule -- people aren't convicted on this single piece of evidence alone -- but it tends to be true enough that such evidence is admissable.

That is a pattern: people who own a gun tend to be the ones who fire that gun. Such evidence assists us in drawing conclusions. In fact, all circumstantial evidence works like this. That's why we call it "circumstantial" -- it is something that isn't direct evidence, but typically, people in that circumstance are guilty.

 

[liuelson]

Just a general question about sales-age methodology...

I see a lot of people poo-poo 'launch adjusted' comparisons between consoles, like anyone who does it has broken some cardinal rule.

While I agree it doesn't offer perspective on the situation as it stands right now, does it not offer a different perspective with more of a historical viewpoint?

Models have validity in 2 different senses - explanatory power and predictive power. Part of what sales-agers are trying to do is predict future behavior of the market. Therefore, launch-aligning the sales of a software sequel v. previous iteration does help provide some predictive information, assuming that the IP is targeting roughly the same market and has roughly the same appeal (as an IP). Furthermore, it seems reasonable to assume that a previous version is not competing directly with its sequel, so the continuing availability of Madden '09 shouldn't necessarily affect sales of Madden '10 that much.

However, launch-aligning hardware console sales is tricky, because the future behavior will indeed be influenced by network effects (bandwagon). The X360 head start provided a greater install base, more software support, a larger library, etc. - all factors that influence the competitive situation for sales of PS3 and Wii. Launch aligning hardware sales specifically removes this effect from the analysis, and that's why it may lose it's predictive power as a model for future hardware sales.

Can you go in to detail about number 1 -- how would this affect third party sales in particular? If the suggestion is that casual gamers don't buy games, then why do Nintendo's own first party efforts continue to sell well?

Not to hijack your discussion, but for my 2 cents, I think that part of Nintendo's appeal does indeed lie in its intellectual property, and those properties have been cultivated to resonate with a broad audience based on relatively weak signals. Mario Kart will get attention (if not necessarily purchases) from a relatively broad audience, regardless of how old the game is, or the quality of its online functionality. Forza 3 is only the 3rd iteration of a specific IP, does not leverage any other MS IP (it's not called "Halo Forza" or "360 Forza" or whatever), and probably will be evaluated more carefully by its target audience based on its graphics, online functionality, etc.