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[Sysgen]

FORZA MOTORSPORT 3 (360; Oct-09) 175,000

Maybe for Forza 4 they can put more "XBL Gold required" messages. This is the 1st Forza game I've had while being a Silver member.

Here upload something. Oh you can't. Here bid on a car, oh no you don't. Download a setup, forget it.

Some suggestions for Forza 4.

Drive the Bugatti, upgrade to gold. Buy that camshaft, oh no you don't.

Sheesh I only paid $60 dollars for the game yet I can't bid on a car.

 

[unomas]

Great number for Borderlands, but the inevitable big drop off is coming. PS3 over 360 again, MS needs to get it's ass in gear, there has definitely been a shift since that PS3 price drop.

 

[Majima Everywhere System]

In my opinion (and I'm a real RE franchise fan,) it's so superior to RE4 as to not even mention it in the same breath. Even the first Uncharted was significantly better than RE4, IMO.

When you get a PS3, you should immediately buy at least one Uncharted game, probably both.

I know RE 4 is old now and much of it seems dated, but don't forget where you came from. The attention paid to the game's setting and characters is along the lines of Uncharted.

Uncharted can be a bit too family friendly and hokey. RE 4 has that video game "cool" that you don't often see, but you know it when you see it. Castlevania SOTN has it too.

 

[BattleMonkey]

You are simply wrong. It isn't even an obscure legal concept: circumstantial evidence frequently is and has been allowed in court. In fact, on occassion, convictions are made based entirely on circumstantial evidence. Usually it's used as an assistant to direct evidence, rather than as a replacement for it, but it does happen.

"Circumstantial" evidence is any evidence that indirectly implies guilt. For example, a ballistics expert can verify that a bullet which killed a victim was fired from a gun owned by a defendant. Is this direct evidence that the defendant fired the weapon? No, it is not -- however, in the past, it is typically true that the owner of a gun is far more likely to fire the weapon than any other random individual is. It isn't an absolute rule -- people aren't convicted on such evidence alone -- but it tends to be true enough that such evidence is allowed in court.

That is a pattern: people who own a gun tend to be the ones who fire that gun. Such evidence assists us in drawing conclusions. In fact, all circumstantial evidence works like this. In fact, that's why we call it "circumstantial" -- it is something that isn't direct evidence, but typically, people in that circumstance are guilty.

This has gotten off track, but no your are comparing completely different things from your original guestimations. Circumstantial evidence is still based off physical tangible evidence related to the case that can be used. What you were doing was basically talking about completely unrelated game trends that had nothing to do with Fallout 3 as if it were applicable. This is not really the same thing as Circumstantial evidence. It's like saying a man is guilty because he lived in a similar situation as another former killer so it would make sense for him to have killed his own wife like that other guy. That has nothing to do with the case, and even if the variables aligned to be similar, it does not count as evidence.

Your talking about NPD numbers of FO3 definitely applied as evidence, but to make assumptions based on past performance of completely unrelated games or genres is nothing but guessing.

Time and time again sales agers are proven wrong with games bucking the trends with all kinds of surprises that don't match expectations.

 

[duk]

Great number for Borderlands, but the inevitable big drop off is coming. PS3 over 360 again, MS needs to get it's ass in gear, there has definitely been a shift since that PS3 price drop.

a whole 2 months!

 

[Anerythristic]

I am dissapointed in that Borderlands PS3 number, I hope PS3 gets the inevitable follow up to this game.

 

[RETROEX]

No ninja gaiden sigma 2 info?, anyone, not even the slightliest idea?

 

[jaundicejuice]

I'm glad that Demon's Souls sold well, relatively speaking. From Software made a pretty kick ass game and Atlus did us a solid by picking it up for localisation. Hopefully this means the server stays up for a good long while, there's further printings of the game and that maybe they'll work on a sequel. And 3D Dot Heroes gets localised.

 

[Road]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=26070

Grand Theft Auto: Episodes From Liberty City, which puts both downloadable GTA IV episodes on one standalone disc, sold 57,000 units in the month -- despite being on sale for only three days. The episodes are also both available individually via download on Xbox Live Marketplace.

GTA: EPISODES FROM LIBERTY CITY (360) 57,000

 

[adamsapple]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=26070


GTA: EPISODES FROM LIBERTY CITY (360) 57,000

So much for Pachter's 2.25 million units.

http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/adventure/agent/news.html?sid=6216781

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=26070


GTA: EPISODES FROM LIBERTY CITY (360) 57,000

I don't know about anyone else but I'm glad that this "episode" shit is failing so badly.

I'd much rather have developers create new games instead of just continuously focusing on already existing games by reusing the same exact existing assets to milk out more sales.

 

[Sohter.Nura]

Except for the fact that Wii third party suffers even without a first party offering to contend with.

We forgot to mention that Wii first party titles suffer, too! Look at Excitebots, Wario Land Shake It. etc

 

[CrunchinJelly]

Has anyone got the Uncharted 2 and Gears of War 1 numbers for comparison? Including install bases, of course.

 

[Opiate]

Circumstantial evidence is still based off physical tangible evidence related to the case that can be used.

Absolutely not. Let's say I found that the murder weapon was not owned by the defendant, and had no clear link to the defendant in any way (i.e. it isn't his wife's gun, or his friend's, and so forth).

I still have this "physical tangible evidence," but now it's of no use to my case. In fact, the defendant can probably use this gun as exculpatory evidence. Why would he have a gun owned by a completely different person that he never met?

So in my example, the gun itself is not the evidence: the evidence is that he owned the gun, and it logically follows that he's the most likely to have fired it. Again, why is that the case? Because historically, most guns are fired by their owners.

Your talking about NPD numbers of FO3 definitely applied as evidence, but to make assumptions based on past performance of completely unrelated games or genres is nothing but guessing.

These aren't "completely unrelated." I chose them specifically as reasonable parallels. I.e., these games with similar playstyles, appealing to similar audiences, had small legs. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that this similar game will also have small legs.

Time and time again sales agers are proven wrong with games bucking the trends with all kinds of surprises that don't match expectations.

Which proves these aren't absolute rules, or patterns I did not consider were not accounted for. That is a truth I absolutely agree with: this is hardly a perfect science. Even if my guesses are only right 55% of the time, that's still better than guessing randomly. I'm not asking us to be right all the time, I only want us to make the best estimations possible based on the limited evidence we have available.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think we can safely say that the racer doesn't have the cache for automatic sales that it once did. I highly doubt we're going to see much more of Forza next month.

 

[markatisu]

Did I miss why people are saying the Wii does not sell software? Did we get the remainder of the Top 10 or is this another instance of gaffers only thinking the Top 10 is the only thing that matters

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Did I miss why people are saying the Wii does not sell software? Did we get the remainder of the Top 10 or is this another instance of gaffers only thinking the Top 10 is the only thing that matters

Top 10 is the only thing we have numbers for...unless you use ********.com

 

[Deku]

Top 10 is the only thing we have numbers for...unless you use ********.com

you're missing the point. one month where there's tremendous amounts of units moved, say November (next month's NPD) and December's, the top 11-30 combined could move significant number of units which won't be discussed in detail because no one knows exactly how well they did.

The all format top 10s further crowds out interesting data which would be more readily available if we have the top 10s and sales number for each platform.

But yea, ever since the NPD castration of the publicly available software numbers, discussion on software sales have generally descended into pure fantasy.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

I REALLY want to play Uncharted and Uncharted 2 but don't have a PS3 yet. I'm sure I'll get it eventually. The game has such acclaim (yet low relative sales to other blockbusters) it reminds me of RE4, which begs the question to those who have played it: Is it as good as that game?

In my opinion (and I'm a real RE franchise fan,) it's so superior to RE4 as to not even mention it in the same breath. Even the first Uncharted was significantly better than RE4, IMO.

When you get a PS3, you should immediately buy at least one Uncharted game, probably both.

...

RE: Sales Age... I think this month is the last for PS3 on top of 360 for the rest of the year.

I think 360 will have a monster month next time round. MW2, AC2, and the "fire sale" retailer gift card specials are real significant drivers for the platform. The ban wave is way less of a driver than many are claiming, but I think it's going to be a little more significant than some here make it out to be as well. Pirates get invested and hooked into the 360 experience too, so a significant amount will certainly return to the system, even if they have to buy some games from now on to do it. Really, I can't see what slows down the 360 here in the US in terms of beating PS3 month after month from now on to the end of the year.

PS3 will do fine in the US, significantly above what it's done in past years, but not beating 360. do believe there is some pent-up demand for the system from people who may have another system but still don't have a PS3, and this Christmas is time. But 360 is just too cheep when these crazy sales come in. PS3's saving grace will be its sales outside the US.

What can Sony do here? Sony really can't counter those crazy retailer sales bargain prices, so their options are limited there. They could to step up to the plate in terms of "Greatest Hits" releases for the holidays, I guess. A flood of new "Greatest Hits" games could be a real value-add to the system. If they bent the rules a bit, (only a few days shy of 10 months) they could get a "Greatest Hits" Killzone 2 out there before Christmas.

A disc-based bundle of those PSN-exclusive "Greatest Hits" might be nice too. There are a lot of people who aren't that turned on to how great some of those PSN exclusives are, and a disc with a bunch of PSN "Greatest Hits" might be the intro they need. I could see a lot of people going into a store, seeing a box containing a dozen titles, maybe recognizing a few of the names, and picking it up for the value or just for hell of it.

Blu-ray talk/movie bundles are nice too, but only go so far. I don't see that being anything but sales reenforcement for someone who's already interested in the platform at this point.

I'm not a Wii fan really at all, so I'll limit my comments to two things:

I'm looking forward to NSMB Wii, and yeah, it will be really, really big, but not as big as some think. I think it will play to the fans that already have Wii, and sell a lot of copies as all real Mario games do, but not drive new hardware sales as much as some think. I actually think a new Wii Mario Cart would have moved more Wii hardware than a 2-D Mario platformer that's a sequel to a DS will. Even with it being a canon Mario game, it seems pretty hardcore for the current Wii audience, which doesn't seem hardcore at all, despite protestations from a few true believers here on GAF.

Which directly ties into the fact that it's a real fucking shame that people didn't buy A Boy and His Blob. A fucking travesty actually, since it's the best thing I've played on Wii since SMG. If it weren't for the tug of Mario nostalgia I still get, I'd venture to say A Boy in His Blob even beats SMG on being the most charming game on the system. If that game was called "Mario and His Blob" it would have sold a million-bazillion copies on day one, like it deserves, but Wii owners chose to sit around jacking off to NSMB footage, and making internet posts about how great it is and how much it's going to move, instead of going out and buying a real good game that's actually sitting on the shelves right now, I guess. Fuck you Wii guys that don't buy a game like this. I don't even own a Wii personally and I bought the game to play with my nephews on the system I bought for them. What's your excuse, Wii fan? Oh, and if you don't have the game, don't reply to this post. You don't deserve to have a say in real game discussion.

 

[sloppyjoe_gamer]

a whole 2 months!

2 months or not, the point is, it happened. And that's something that many here said would never happen.

 

[Of All Trades]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm glad that this "episode" shit is failing so badly.

I'd much rather have developers create new games instead of just continuously focusing on already existing games by reusing the same exact existing assets to milk out more sales.

I missed where the download numbers were posted, could you recap? I assume that those numbers, particularly of The Lost & The Damned, must be equally low, because surely you wouldn't declare that a bundle SKU was "failing so badly" if the majority of potential buyers didn't already have half the bundle, thereby castrating any value of the bundle?

 

[vehn]

with all those sales for UC2 you'd figure there would be more peeps online

 

[charlequin]

It clearly has appeal. It makes me think it could've done some huge numbers with a larger publisher and a marketing budget behind it

Fucking SCEA

That's silly. SCEA would have unceremoniously pooped this game out here and let it sink or swim. It probably would have done worse than with Atlus' love (and ability to directly market to the people who would be interested in a great niche RPG) behind it.

I see a lot of people poo-poo 'launch adjusted' comparisons between consoles, like anyone who does it has broken some cardinal rule.

While I agree it doesn't offer perspective on the situation as it stands right now, does it not offer a different perspective with more of a historical viewpoint?

Launch-adjustment is a useful but very narrow tool.

In terms of looking at trajectories, it's very useful; it's good to get perspective on how systems are doing compared to previous generations, or how certain trends are playing out over a system's life.

The problem comes in when people basically try to use it to prove who's "winning," because it's totally fucking useless for that. Who's winning in reality is who's sold the most consoles and selling the most software. If you launch late, you accept that becoming the "winner" is harder because you have a deficit to make up; that's part of how the game works. Pointing to launch-aligned numbers to fuzz this over is disingenuous and so it twinges a lot of people's radar.

And, of course, NPD threads are crappier (both in terms of having less info and also having much more casual or drive-by posting) than MC by default so there's less assumption that people are using data tools correctly in them.

Hmm...is there a general sense that the X360 has lost it's mojo? Will the PS3 take the lead over it in sales going forward or will it bounce back?

I think the conventional wisdom has been for a while now that PS3 leads during price parity, 360 leads when it has a price advantage, and the PS3 still can't make up the software sales deficit it has to 360 either way.

As a result, the difference going into next year really comes down to each company's positioning moves.

yeah , death to good games

Is your argument here that, what, Insomniac can't make a good game unless it has Ratchet in it? :lol

 

[OldJadedGamer]

2 months or not, the point is, it happened. And that's something that many here said would never happen.

The system was above the 360 for three months in a row at the beginning of 2008.

 

[EXGN]

Has anyone got the Uncharted 2 and Gears of War 1 numbers for comparison? Including install bases, of course.

Very roughly, Gears sold 1 million copies with 3.7 million 360s on the market, IIRC.

No ninja gaiden sigma 2 info?, anyone, not even the slightliest idea?

370,000 copies worldwide, 55K of which were in Japan. Not very precise, but gives you an idea.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm glad that this "episode" shit is failing so badly.

I'd much rather have developers create new games instead of just continuously focusing on already existing games by reusing the same exact existing assets to milk out more sales.

I disagree. I played a lot of Gay Tony before I got stuck into the new Ratchet. It's pretty awesome. There's a lot to like. It's not just a cash-in rehash at all. It has a really different feel to the other two episodes.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

with all those sales for UC2 you'd figure there would be more peeps online

I'd think most people buy into Uncharted for the single player rather than the multi in this one. It's a nice addition though it's something I just couldn't be bothered to play much even though it's good. That and only 2 quick online trophies meant it was never going to get the crowds.

Really nice Demon's Souls sales. Great job!

 

[gofreak]

Has anyone got the Uncharted 2 and Gears of War 1 numbers for comparison? Including install bases, of course.

There's no comparison really. According to some wikia site it was something like 1m units in its first month on a 3.5m userbase. UC2 was half that on a base 2-3x the size.

(Of course Gears was launched in Nov, so as a big title it probably benefitted a lot as a pick-up with the larger hardware sales in that month, but still.)

The PS3 base does not seem to rally as strongly around specific individual titles outside of the really massive games. I've a feeling sales and attention get spread around a bit more on the platform compared to 360 certainly, for whatever reason.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

I missed where the download numbers were posted, could you recap? I assume that those numbers, particularly of The Lost & The Damned, must be equally low, because surely you wouldn't declare that a bundle SKU was "failing so badly" if the majority of potential buyers didn't already have half the bundle, thereby castrating any value of the bundle?

Do you really think that digital download sales would make up the difference?

Digital download sales, apart from small downloadable pick up and play games, have always been weak. If 57,000 is any indication the game didn't do as well as a continuation of a GTA game should have.

I disagree. I played a lot of Gay Tony before I got stuck into the new Ratchet. It's pretty awesome. There's a lot to like. It's not just a cash-in rehash at all. It has a really different feel to the other two episodes.

You're welcome to have your own opinion but I'd much prefer if Rockstar would start working on GTA V instead.

 

[ZZMitch]

2 months or not, the point is, it happened. And that's something that many here said would never happen.

Did they say that before or after a 300$ PS3 Slim 120gb was announced?

 

[gogojira]

I would assume those GTA numbers for Liberty City are exclusively for the retail copy, right? I wonder how it did on the downloadable market -- I have to imagine a lot of people simply DL'd The Ballad of Gay Tony.

 

[chubigans]

Maybe for Forza 4 they can put more "XBL Gold required" messages. This is the 1st Forza game I've had while being a Silver member.

Here upload something. Oh you can't. Here bid on a car, oh no you don't. Download a setup, forget it.

Some suggestions for Forza 4.

Drive the Bugatti, upgrade to gold. Buy that camshaft, oh no you don't.

Sheesh I only paid $60 dollars for the game yet I can't bid on a car.

Wait what? You can't use the F3 marketplace if you're a silver member?

Holy crap I'm glad I didn't buy the game. Ugh. I'm sure it's completely out of Turn 10's hands but man is that stupid.

 

[markatisu]

Top 10 is the only thing we have numbers for...unless you use ********.com

So we are not actually discussing any Wii failures, just the fact that the Top 10 is not dominated by Wii software gotcha

Wow then the DS must be a complete failure, amazed games get made for it (rolling eyes)

 

[Sean]

Has anyone got the Uncharted 2 and Gears of War 1 numbers for comparison? Including install bases, of course.

Gears of War sold 1 million in it's first month to a 3.4 million userbase.
Uncharted 2 sold 537k in it's first month to a 9.1 million userbase.

*according to neogaf forum posts (which i linked to). i assume this info is accurate but don't shoot me if it's wrong.

 

[EXGN]

There's no comparison really. According to some wikia site it was something like 1m units in its first month on a 3.5m userbase. UC2 was half that on a base 2-3x the size.

(Of course Gears was launched in Nov, so as a big title it probably benefitted a lot as a pick-up with the larger hardware sales in that month, but still.)

The PS3 base does not seem to rally as strongly around specific individual titles outside of the really massive games. I've a feeling sales and attention get spread around a bit more on the platform compared to 360 certainly, for whatever reason.

Not to downplay Gears, it is a huge title and earned it's money, but a good portion of it's popularity were product of the environment at the time. It was not only THE game to have in the 2006 holiday period, but it was also really the first 'AAA' game on the 360.

Neither of which are true for the Uncharted 2.

 

[markatisu]

Not to downplay Gears, it is a huge title and earned it's money, but it was not only THE game to have in the 2006 holiday period, but it was also really the first 'AAA' game on the XBox 360.

Neither of which are true for the Uncharted 2.

Uncharted 2 is not the game to have on the PS3? could have fooled me

 

[ZeoVGM]

Everyone saying that the MW2 bundle will play into the Xbox 360 favour needs to consider one thing.

ITs $400 DOLLARS!

$400 bundle during a recession is not going to be lighting any fires anytime soon (not to mention, MW2 is more of a game that appeals to an existing userbase as oppossed to selling systems.

Has anyone said the MW2 bundle itself would play into sale next month? I didn't see it. But MW2 has factually pushed 360 hardware in general at the store I work at. It's been very obvious.

But yet again, whether or not that happens all over the place, we'll have to wait and see.

Not to mention, it is also available on the PS3)

Not a factor. MW2 sales on 360 are going to eclipse those on the PS3.

But from my understanding the gift card is only for 1 day, and well I doubt one day will make a significant difference when compared to the whole month.

Except it's for 1 week. Not 1 day. The deal ends today. There were reports of 50+ people lined up at some Walmarts on the first day and I would assume any new stock that came in during the week went out that day.

 

[Psychotext]

Gears of War sold 1 million in it's first month to a 3.4 million userbase.
Uncharted 2 sold 537k in it's first month to a 9.1 million userbase.

*according to neogaf forum posts (which i linked to). i assume this info is accurate but don't shoot me if it's wrong.

I've got a spreadsheet containing all that sort of info... along with what each game sold and how many days it was on sale for. If I get a minute I'll update it for recent titles and post it in the thread.

 

[EXGN]

Uncharted 2 is not the game to have on the PS3? could have fooled me

I never said that. It isn't 'the game to own this holiday season', Modern Warfare 2 is. It also isn't the first 'AAA' PS3 game - MGS4, Killzone 2, and countless others have filled those shoes.

 

[Of All Trades]

Do you really think that digital download sales would make up the difference?

Digital download sales, apart from small downloadable pick up and play games, have always been weak. If 57,000 is any indication the game didn't do as well as a continuation of a GTA game should have.

Back in March, Pachter estimated that TLATD had sold 1M. MS stated that it sold more than Killzone 2 in the US, which at that time (February/March or so) was 323k.So yes, I think that the somewhere between 500k-1M people who own TLATD might make up the difference on Gay Tony. Probably not as much, given the release window, but it's not like it'll stop being on shelves.

Further, your comment regarding the sales of DD and types of game still seem off, given the known high sales of BF1943, Shadow Complex, and Trials HD (which is pick up and play but not small).

 

[imtehman]

2 months or not, the point is, it happened. And that's something that many here said would never happen.

/boggle

you mean when the ps3 dropped from 499 to 399 the system didn't get a resurgence in sales, especially during the months when MGS4 came out and PS3 was consistently beating x360 months on end until the 360 dropped to 199 and now is happening again after a ps3 price drop of another 100 dollars?

 

[chubigans]

Not a factor. MW2 sales on 360 are going to eclipse those on the PS3.

Probably by 2:1, but PS3 sales will still be insane. Infinity Ward said their estimates for PS3 online players in the first few days were blown out of the water, which is why there were some hiccups in the first day of online gamin'.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

You're welcome to have your own opinion but I'd much prefer if Rockstar would start working on GTA V instead.

And you are certainly welcome to your opinion as well.

I doubt having your writers/actors/a few level designers/ect. working on Gay Tony has much of an impact on the guys probably still working on coding GTA V's tech/engine development much at all. They could be doing both simultaneously, I'd imagine.

And from a business perspective, if I'm working for a company funding a big game in this economy, I've gotta like this arrangement. To me, Rockstar seems to have hit on a very low-risk way of leveraging their flagship title financially at precisely the right time in terms of both the console cycle and the current economic conditions.

 

[DMeisterJ]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=26070

GTA: EPISODES FROM LIBERTY CITY (360) 57,000

Not too much context without the DL numbers, but that's kinda meh for the disc release. DL numbers need to be huge for this to not look good.

Gears of War sold 1 million in it's first month to a 3.4 million userbase.
Uncharted 2 sold 537k in it's first month to a 9.1 million userbase.

*according to neogaf forum posts (which i linked to). i assume this info is accurate but don't shoot me if it's wrong.

Sony has a tough time selling first-party games for some odd reason on the PS3. Somehow MGS4 and GTA IV, and probably MW2 will sell 1 million, but exclusive FP games can't. It's a shame, but U2 did do better than U1 by a large margin. :/

 

[speculawyer]

Someone can add this to the list of known NPD data:

Grand Theft Auto: Episodes From Liberty City, which puts both downloadable GTA IV episodes on one standalone disc, sold 57,000 units in the month -- despite being on sale for only three days. The episodes are also both available individually via download on Xbox Live Marketplace.

Pretty weak.

Edit: Damn . . . beat to the punch.

 

[plagiarize]

Not too much context without the DL numbers, but that's kinda meh for the disc release. DL numbers need to be huge for this to not look good.



Sony has a tough time selling first-party games for some odd reason on the PS3. Somehow MGS4 and GTA IV, and probably MW2 will sell 1 million, but exclusive FP games can't. It's a shame, but U2 did do better than U1 by a large margin. :/

i'd argue that Sony has historically had trouble selling first party games on all their systems. that's no knock on them though cause they take a lot of risks on stuff like SOTC and Ico.

GT, God Of War... what else? it's not like it's a new phenomena.

 

[Cheech]

1. Good on Atlus for taking a chance with Demon's Souls. I'm sure that wasn't a cheap publishing deal. It's the best PS3 exclusive I've played so far.

2. I think DJ Hero will have some legs. Awareness of the game wasn't great before it launched with the general population, but there is some positive word of mouth out there. It's never going to chart on the NPDs again, but should finish up in the black.

3. The crazy Sony Fanboy chalkboard dude who got banned is going to be in for some disappointment in the next edition of NPDs. The insane Walmart/Amazon deal, combined with MW2, has people excited about Xbox again. However, since neither seller is counted in the NPDs, we'll see what the actual impact of those $100 GC offers were. If a Best Buy trots out that $100 GC for a Black Friday deal, the 360 is going to marinate in PS3 blood for this month's NPDs.

Anecdotally (Gamestop), PS3 slim demand has settled down substantially.
Combined with an average 80/20 split across my local Gamestops for 360/PS3 versions of MW2, the 360 is maintaining the title of the console of choice for US gamers.

4. I think either Left 4 Dead 2 or Assassin's Creed 2 are going to stun everybody and bomb. Both games benefited last year by having a reasonable amount of separation with other games, but this year they're packed a bit too tightly with NSMB Wii (which is a hardcore game, regardless of the Wii's rep), MW2, and each other. My thought is L4D2 is going to underwhelm because everybody is still playing Borderlands and MW2.

 

[DMeisterJ]

i'd argue that Sony has historically had trouble selling first party games on all their systems. that's no knock on them though cause they take a lot of risks on stuff like SOTC and Ico.

GT, God Of War... what else? it's not like it's a new phenomena.

That's basically it. The original Resistance sold 1 million after GH (I believe) and jstevenson said a few months ago that R2 was in the 750k-1 million range. But yeah, by and large, Sony's first parties crossing a million hardly happens. It's sad because they have a great lineup of studios and games. I really want to know why they can't sell. :/

 

[speculawyer]

So much for Pachter's 2.25 million units.

http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/adventure/agent/news.html?sid=6216781

Well . . . that number was 'worldwide' and for the entire life of the product not 3 days of sales in the USA only. But yeah, I doubt they will hit that high number despite good reviews.

"We estimate that around 7 million copies of GTAIV were sold on the Xbox 360, meaning that approximately 25 million Xbox 360 owners did not buy the game," he said. "While we don't expect a huge attach rate, we think that it is reasonable that Take-Two could see a 5 percent attach rate among this audience, plus another 1 to 1.5 million discs sold to the 7 million prior owners."

Since 5 percent of 25 million is 1.25 million, by Pachter's calculus, Episodes From Liberty City could sell anywhere from 2.25 to 2.75 million units worldwide.

http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/adventure/agent/news.html?sid=6216781

 

[markatisu]

2. I think DJ Hero will have some legs. Awareness of the game wasn't great before it launched with the general population, but there is some positive word of mouth out there. It's never going to chart on the NPDs again, but should finish up in the black.

Don't be surprised if December NPD it shows somewhere in the Top 20, it happens every year