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[allan-bh]

If that 45% refers to overall hardware, then PS4 was a handful worse than 45%

PS4 sold alot in september, so big drop was expected.

 

[hodayathink]

Can NPD issue threats to Twitter or would Twitter slap the shit out of NPD?

If it's a matter of NDAs, NPD might be able to ask twitter for information about a user who posts them (i.e. IP address and the like), but I'm not even sure about that.

 

[sörine]

It's pretty good for a new IP.

For a new IP without any other context? Sure, 385k is great in today's weakened retail console market. For a new IP with the sort of investment and push behind it that TEW had? I'm not so sure.

We went through the same thing in the Media-create thread during TEW's first week in Japan. Some people saw the numbers and said it was pretty good with the expected pretexts to buffer that (new IP! western publisher! niche genre!) but sales regulars looked at the low sellthrough (particularly on the PS4 version) and considered the sort of push behind it (most advertised game at TGS, more than some publishers entire lineups) and concluded while it didn't bomb, sales most likely aren't anywhere close to the projections Bethesda's budgeting for. I wouldn't say these US sales are all that different.

 

[3rdamention]

Can someone pm me Aquas twitter? Can't find it..

 

[allan-bh]

For a new IP without any other context? Sure, 385k is great in today's weakened retail console market. For a new IP with the sort of investment and push behind it that TEW had? I'm not so sure.

Sold more than Dead Space. I think is great for launch, but don't know if will have legs (probably not)

 

[CosmicQueso]

Thanks, I used to have these numbers, oh well.

Xbox One is still riding that amazing launch but almost every month since has been down, as compared to Xbox 360. I can see how November will be great, but I don't see how Xbox keeps goosing sales in December and early next year.

Yeah the streams are slowly getting closer... and you know what happens when the streams cross...

You get a bigger price drop.

 

[BKK]

For a new IP without any other context? Sure, 385k is great in today's weakened retail console market. For a new IP with the sort of investment and push behind it that TEW had? I'm not so sure.

We went through the same thing in the Media-create thread during TEW's first week in Japan. Some people saw the numbers and said it was pretty good with the expected pretexts to buffer that (new IP! western publisher! niche genre!) but sales regulars looked at the low sellthrough (particularly on the PS4 version) and considered the sort of push behind it (most advertised game at TGS, more than some publishers entire lineups) and concluded while it didn't bomb, sales most likely aren't anywhere close to the projections Bethesda's budgeting for. I wouldn't say these US sales are all that different.

So you're saying that it did better than you expected, but worse than Bethesda expected?

 

[allan-bh]

Yeah the streams are slowly getting closer... and you know what happens when the streams cross...

You get a bigger price drop.

I don't think that at this point Microsoft has any illusion of reaching Xbox 360 sales in USA.

 

[sörine]

So you're saying that it did better than you expected, but worse than Bethesda expected?

Me personally? It did about what I expected, maybe a little low. I'd have guessed 450k given the heavy barrage of commercials the game got (and is still getting btw).

 

[Welfare]

How many fingers do you have on your hand?

This many.

 

[allan-bh]

This many.

40% drop is still big for Xbox One.

Anyway, MS put all the chips in holidays.

 

[BKK]

Me personally? It did about what I expected, maybe a little low. I'd have guessed 450k given the heavy barrage of commercials the game got (and is still getting btw).

So how much should it have sold to have met Bethesda's expectations?

 

[CosmicQueso]

I don't think that at this point Microsoft has any illusion of reaching Xbox 360 sales in USA.

Nope.

But they have a warchest and they're not going to stop battling. Not so long as the division exists. They've got more leeway to spend than their major competitor.

Competition is always good for the consumer though, so fight on I say.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Since we're talking about posters, I always liked Terry Travis' input on NPD threads. Judging from the fact that the GC hit over 200K in its equivalent October (2003) and the Wii U did less than 70K it probably stopped being interesting comparing the two.

On the bright side the only data I can find for October 2001 for the Dreamcast pins it at 49K, so the Wii U beat it handily there. The Dreamcast was announced to be dead in March 2001, though

Makes me wonder where do people expect the Wii U to pick up to be able to end at "Gamecube-level Numbers". The GC did double what the Wii U did it's first two years to end up at 20M

The GameCube had its pricecut to $99 in late September 2003. It's not really a fair comparison anyways.

 

[sörine]

So how much should it have sold to have met Bethesda's expectations?

I don't know, I guess like a AAA game. I bet it shipped like one.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Nope.

But they have a warchest and they're not going to stop battling. Not so long as the division exists. They've got more leeway to spend than their major competitor.

Competition is always good for the consumer though, so fight on I say.

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Overall, right? So, PS4 and Xbox One drop should be bigger than 45%, right?

I'm pretty sure he's just referring to the new systems we don't have numbers for.

It puts them at around 295K and 170K respectively. At least it's something rough for donny to go on for prediction thread.
Edit: on further inspection, it also fits pretty well with Callahan's statement, as it would put the PS4+XBO at about 73.4% up over the equivalent PS3+360.

Much obliged, Mr H.

 

[BKK]

The GameCube had its pricecut to $99 in late September 2003. It's not really a fair comparison anyways.

Which just goes to show how poorly designed the Wii U was with regards to reductions in manufacturing costs. They should have dropped the Gamepad early on whilst they still had the opportunity.

 

[BKK]

I don't know, I guess like a AAA game. I bet it shipped like one.

Yet it certainly doesn't look like one.

 

[Loris146]

I'm pretty sure he's just referring to the new systems we don't have numbers for.

It puts them at around 300K and 170K respectively. At least it's something rough for donny to go on for prediction thread.

Much obliged, Mr H.

Maybe 280/290 for PS4... Anyway around it

 

[ZSaberLink]

Man, without Creamsugar, we'll never know how Fantasy Life did...
Since Nintendo didn't say anything, I'm guessing less than 100k.

Aqua replied that you don't want to know =(....


Aqua, Fantasy Life or Layton v. AA's first month sales. Which one would make me more sad?

Which just goes to show how poorly designed the Wii U was with regards to reductions in manufacturing costs. They should have dropped the Gamepad early on whilst they still had the opportunity.

Oh I agree. However, I assume they'll eventually figure out a way to drop the price at least some. If they can at least increase volume of sales this holiday season, perhaps they can bring down the costs of the Wii U in general. I think it's telling that the Wii U has received 1 $50 pricecut its entire lifetime (to get it to $300) in the time that the GC went from $199 to $99.

 

[Final Verdict]

Soooooo.....

PS4 ~ 280k
X1 ~175k

Am I close?

 

[Final Verdict]

I don't think that at this point Microsoft has any illusion of reaching Xbox 360 sales in USA.

Well 360 has been around for almost what? Nine years? So yeah, I'd say it is probably quite impossible, unless this console generation last as long as last gen did...

 

[sörine]

Yet it certainly doesn't look like one.

I couldn't tell from the many many commercials.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

The GameCube had its pricecut to $99 in late September 2003. It's not really a fair comparison anyways.

Nah, What I meant to imply was that the GC was beating the Wii U every month so badly, it stopped getting interesting. It only got worse starting in September and the Wii U's fortune won't really improve unless something drastic happens.

It's really not fun to see "Hmm, GC beat Wii U by 3x in this month, but in this month it only beat it by 2X!"

Between that and the lack of data for DC I would've stopped graphing, myself.

 

[QaaQer]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

.

great post.

 

[JNA]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

This guy gets it.

When PS2 was dominating the console market, we were arguably introduced to many of the greatest games of all time.

Competition is good for retail stores, yet seems to be the opposite in the games industry.

 

[kswiston]

Aqua replied that you don't want to know =(....

I think those types of games actually do well on digital, especially when they start getting regular sales/discounts. We keep getting new Etrian Odyssey games despite them doing like 15-20k in their first month retail for instance.

 

[Spazgadget]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

This.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I'm confused how people are determining PS4 and Xbone sales. Harker's 45% comment could be interrupted differently.

 

[Ty4on]

Hmm, so:
~295k
~170k

It would be awesome if my XB1 prediction (170k) was spot on. PS4 wise I seemed to have forgotten what the ratio usually was...

Edit

 

[Omnipunctual Godot]

it did well in Japan too.
Tango Gameworks lives.

Didn't Mikami say TEW would be his final game? I hope he means that like Kojima when he says he's making his final Metal Gear game.

I certainly hope you get a tag out of this so everyone can know just how ridiculous your post was. So silver lining for you I guess you get your ignominious tag and we get to treat your posts with the respect they deserve. Everyone wins.

Stern, but fair.

 

[Omnipunctual Godot]

it means demand is getting weaker.

Which might give a good idea of what's going to happen next month. Microsoft already announced that x1 outsold the ps4 in two weeks of november, so the xboxone might be the winner next month.

I don't understand. These statistics seem to indicate otherwise, at least in terms of hardware:

Overall:

Overall retail sales down less than 1% year over year.

Software down 28% year over year.

Hardware up 59% year over year

*Sorry for the double post.

 

[RexNovis]

I just went through my post history to find my posts in that thread. Turns out I was wrong. I did write on that thread. Twice. Once saying I felt left out for not having a tag since everyone seems to have one and the other for saying the ps4 won 9 months in a row.

But since two users saw me shit that thread, I must've wrote something else that misteriously disappeared into thin air...

But moving on... I didn't try to order him to do anything. I ASKED for him to chose a stance.

Maybe you're still sore about one month ago you having a good number of users being disrespectful to Aqua making her desire to be banned to not deal with that shit anymore, but I wasn't on it.

Like I said, I apologized to John Harker. I gave an idea of something he could possibly do IF HE FELT LIKE IT.

I am sorry to him if he thought I was being forceful, but it certainly wasn't my intention.

However I will never mince my words so some users like you can feel fine. Not my problem you're oversensitive about something that happened, so kindly leave me out of your witch trials.

I certainly hope you get a tag out of this so everyone can know just how ridiculous your post was. So silver lining for you I guess you get your ignominious tag and we get to treat your posts with the respect they deserve. Everyone wins.

Edit: looks like Harker is far more forgiving than I

Alright ya'll, just drop it. He apologized all good, I don't get that offended anyway. I just do my thing. But thanks for the nice words

You are a lucky man/woman.

 

[Kill3r7]

I don't understand. These statistics seem to indicate otherwise, at least in terms of hardware:

*Sorry for the double post.

YOY is not the same as MOM

Also, keep in mind this year it is 7 consoles vs 5 last year.

 

[Omnipunctual Godot]

YOY is not the same as MOM

Right, I must have misinterpreted the post as speaking of a decline YOY, which I think would be much more relevant information than MOM when looking for a sense of normalcy in larger trends.

 

[kyser73]

I just went through my post history to find my posts in that thread. Turns out I was wrong. I did write on that thread. Twice. Once saying I felt left out for not having a tag since everyone seems to have one and the other for saying the ps4 won 9 months in a row.

But since two users saw me shit that thread, I must've wrote something else that misteriously disappeared into thin air...

But moving on... I didn't try to order him to do anything. I ASKED for him to chose a stance.

Maybe you're still sore about one month ago you having a good number of users being disrespectful to Aqua making her desire to be banned to not deal with that shit anymore, but I wasn't on it.

Like I said, I apologized to John Harker. I gave an idea of something he could possibly do IF HE FELT LIKE IT.

I am sorry to him if he thought I was being forceful, but it certainly wasn't my intention.

However I will never mince my words so some users like you can feel fine. Not my problem you're oversensitive about something that happened, so kindly leave me out of your witch trials.

When you're in a hole it's best to stop digging.

 

[Throwaway123456789]

YOY is not the same as MOM

Can be

 

[Kill3r7]

Can be

Lol well played.

 

[rokkerkory]

Man wouldn't it be so cool to have both X1 and PS4 close in NA here on out.

 

[Zephyrus]

I certainly hope you get a tag out of this so everyone can know just how ridiculous your post was. So silver lining for you I guess you get your ignominious tag and we get to treat your posts with the respect they deserve. Everyone wins.

Edit: looks like Harker is far more forgiving than I

Are you seriously insulting me based on a damn joke post I made a month ago?


Seriously?

Honest question to NEOGAF moderators and please do answer me in PM so as to not pollute this thread anymore with vitriol like this:

How much do I have to deal with until I'm allowed to treat these people the same way they treat me?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Hmm, so:
~295k
~170k

PS4 now with a 1.1m+ lead in US. Aint nothing MS can do to close that next month.

 

[jcm]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

It's not MS distorting expectations, it's actual sales. Wherever there's a billion dollars to be made, there will be people throwing hundreds of millions around. If you want to blame someone, blame the ridiculously profitable CODs and GTAs.

 

[simplayer]

Man wouldn't it be so cool to have both X1 and PS4 close in NA here on out.

Why does it matter?

 

[Ty4on]

I don't understand. These statistics seem to indicate otherwise, at least in terms of hardware:

*Sorry for the double post.

Last year's sales were horrible. You should compare them to brighter years because beating the month just before two next gen console were launched is no big feat.

PS4 now with a 1.1m+ lead in US. Aint nothing MS can do to close that next month.

The difference won't be that, but sales in excess of 1.1 million are quite common in November and December. Like Aqua said though this holiday season will be the stress test for the XB1. It needs some good sales to show the rest of MS it is worthwhile.

 

[Xenus]

Nope.

But they have a warchest and they're not going to stop battling. Not so long as the division exists. They've got more leeway to spend than their major competitor.

Competition is always good for the consumer though, so fight on I say.

Seems like they are spending a lot of money for little gain though. They can only do that for a year or two before investors start getting very grumpy.

 

[iamvin22]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

yup.

 

[Guymelef]

PS4 now with a 1.1m+ lead in US. Aint nothing MS can do to close that next month.

Where that numbers came from?

 

[Zephyrus]

When you're in a hole it's best to stop digging.

what hole?

The one you people keep trying to dig for me?

I already apologized to Harker.

You people keep trying to find hate where there was none.

I'm sorry that users in this forum drove aquamarine away. Now for the love of god, leave me out of your witch hunts.

I made the mistake of not writing as cutesy as possible to not harm the delicate feelings of the people after Harker's numbers. I honestly meant no harm. Yet in almost every page after the damn post I have people constantly poking me and acting as backseat moderators.

 

[Kill3r7]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

I think you are looking at these events with rose tinted glasses. Budget costs would inevitably go up as the technology improved. That said, you are right MS completely changed the dynamics of the game industry by turning publishers like Activision into true behemoths. Couple that with a change in gaming taste shifting more towards western developers and the money dynamic completely changed and greed took over. Some of these publishers today are making an incredible amount of money.