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[Guevara]

At least one analyst thinks digital software sales are as high as 25%:

“[Sales were down] driven by tough comps and the drag from a significant percentage of next-gen software units being sold digitally,” (analyst Doug Creutz of investment firm Cowen and Company) wrote in a note to investors.

Gamers were buying software digitally on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 as well, but it was at a ratio of around one digital to nine physical. Now, on Xbox One and PlayStation 4, that number is closer to one to five. Creutz thinks it is even higher.

“This is not so much a problem for the publishers as it is for brick-and-mortar retail,” the analyst wrote.

Creutz expects physical game sales to take a big dip in comparison to last year. While specialty retailer GameStop has worked to make itself a big part of digital sales, other outlets like Target, Best Buy, and Walmart could start seeing a decline in their software market share this holiday.

The decline isn’t completely due to digital. A lot of the comparison has to do with Grand Theft Auto V selling well throughout the end of last year as well as stagnant software sales on old-gen systems. But digital’s strength is the big surprise.

“Given the strong shift toward new-gen games that is apparent from recent data, and the fact that digital currently appears to be taking as much as 25 percent share of total new-gen sales depending on the game, we continue to expect total Q4 physical unit sales to be down double-digits year-over-year,” wrote Creutz.

http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/analyst-digital-makes-up-as-much-as-25-of-total-game-sales/

 

[theprodigy]

October 2003 was the month of price drop ($149 to $99), still Cube is almost 2 million ahead of Wii U in the same period

it also did something ridiculous (well, comparatively) like 1.9 million over the next two months, the Wii U would be fortunate to hit half of that

And it went to 99 bucks pretty quickly. To be fair I don't see anyone who actually thinks it'll hit gamecube numbers anymore.

you must not be around a lot on GAF....

 

[allan-bh]

it also did something ridiculous (well, comparatively) like 1.9 million over the next two months, the Wii U would be fortunate to hit half of that

Best holiday that Cube had, december was the only month with 1 million+ sales for the console.

Wii U can't compete with that, but I'm expecting better sales than last year.

 

[serversurfer]

At least one analyst thinks digital software sales are as high as 25%:


http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/analyst-digital-makes-up-as-much-as-25-of-total-game-sales/

Well, they say, "depending on the game." So it could just be stuff like Driveclub approaching that 25%.

 

[BKK]

I'll try to find something later. Do you have some tip of how to search?

It probably helps to already have at least one confirmed data point (preferably non-rounded). I guess if you have a rounded one (to 1k) and lots of patience then you can try a thousand different numbers . Restricting search to the past 24hrs would narrow down the results somewhat. Of course, it may well be that no-one has leaked actual numbers anywhere, so that could all be in vain (or maybe they just leaked rounded numbers, in which case you could be searching for a needle in a haystack).

On a sidenote, some posters in these NPD threads take the "entitled gamer" meme to a whole new level. If I had access to the data I'd be reluctant to release it for such people to leech too.

 

[allan-bh]

It probably helps to already have at least one confirmed data point (preferably non-rounded). I guess if you have a rounded one (to 1k) and lots of patience then you can try a thousand different numbers . Restricting search to the past 24hrs would narrow down the results somewhat. Of course, it may well be that no-one has leaked actual numbers anywhere, so that could all be in vain (or maybe they just leaked rounded numbers, in which case you could be searching for a needle in a haystack.

Tough job. Anyway, thanks for the tips.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

At least one analyst thinks digital software sales are as high as 25%:

Hi assumptions that it must be that high seem to be based on the assumption that software isn't in decline as much as it apparently is.

I would argue that the overall fall in software quantity is a bigger factor.

 

[Busaiku]

Man, without Creamsugar, we'll never know how Fantasy Life did...
Since Nintendo didn't say anything, I'm guessing less than 100k.

 

[Cole Slaw]

On the subject of Dreamcast, did it ever outsell the PS2 for a month after a price drop?

 

[Birgitte2004]

The thing is, before the price drop at the end of last month, it was rarely out the top ten. Even taking the rush for the new bundles out of the equation, its definitely selling slower in the hourlies this month.

What? This does not follow. November is the month with the biggest titles of the year, and the reason the PS4 is outside the top 10 is all those games moving in.

Not only that, but I personally feel that Microsoft seems to have more presence in Brick and mortar stores than sony. Amazon doesnt tell the full story, its only a guide.

All that more presence that led them to #1 repeatedly over the last 10 months?

If you are strictly talking about now, well is it really a surprise that for a couple weeks after a 50$ price cut and giving away the biggest games it's selling decently at the moment?

 

[stryke]

On the subject of Dreamcast, did it ever outsell the PS2 for a month after a price drop?

Someone asked that earlier. I think the answer was no.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I wonder what the next big unexpected hit will be. I suppose Yokai was in Japan and Tomodachi in Europe. Those types of things are always interesting to watch take place.

Any guesses?

I could see Rime either suprising..or bombing. Same with No Man's Sky. Splatoon could be a maybe potential hit if the Wii U wasn't the Wii U.

 

[Kandinsky]

Man, without Creamsugar, we'll never know how Fantasy Life did...
Since Nintendo didn't say anything, I'm guessing less than 100k.

It probably didnt even sell 25k tbh D:

tales from my ass and all that.

 

[Occam]

In the film community it is viewed as one of the best horror films ever made.

Indeed, Alien is fantastic. Aliens on the other hand is total nonsense.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

On the subject of Dreamcast, did it ever outsell the PS2 for a month after a price drop?

From what I can see, not in one single major territory since the PS2 launched.

 

[jcm]

Historically what are hardware generally down % wise from sept to oct?

Actually, in the comparable year last gen (2007), they were down fairly significantly too, for a similar reason: a big drop after a major Bungie release.

2007
     Sep   Oct  %CHG
360  528   366  -31%
PS2  215   184  -14%
WII  501   519    4%
PS3  119   121    2%

TOT 1363  1190  -13%

 

[allan-bh]

From what I can see, not in one single major territory since the PS2 launched.

Do you have NPD sales for Dreamcast? Did you know launch month sales?

 

[BKK]

Do you have NPD sales for Dreamcast? Did you know launch month sales?

They shipped 600k to NA through September '99. IIRC 400k+ US NPD, but will need someone with the numbers at hand to confirm.

 

[DustyVonEric]

Indeed, Alien is fantastic. Aliens on the other hand is total nonsense.

Aliens is wut?! Both films are the shit! You can Get Rekt! I'm chilling in a cyber cafe down the street. Come at me! I'm the one wearing a cool-ass purple shirt and bare-footed.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Indeed, Alien is fantastic. Aliens on the other hand is total nonsense.

Best troll post ever.

 

[Spazgadget]

The thing is, before the price drop at the end of last month, it was rarely out the top ten. Even taking the rush for the new bundles out of the equation, its definitely selling slower in the hourlies this month.


Not only that, but I personally feel that Microsoft seems to have more presence in Brick and mortar stores than sony. Amazon doesnt tell the full story, its only a guide.

All valid points, and no Amazon doesn't show the full picture. But the charts also now have Smash Bros, Halo MCC, Far Cry, GTA5, and mf-ing Pokemon pushing everything down. Like I said, I expect X1 to handily outsell PS4 for November, and their placement on their charts speaks to their success with the price cut, but I'd still argue that PS4 sales aren't really flagging in any significant way. Definitely just my interpretation though.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

It was badly over-shipped and heavily over-promoted in Japan. Sub 400k honestly isn't that great in the US given it's level of promotion here either. I'm sure Bethesda channel stuffed it pretty hard though.

It's pretty good for a new IP.

 

[allan-bh]

They shipped 600k to NA through September '99. IIRC 400k+ US NPD, but will need someone with the numbers at hand to confirm.

Aquamarine answered. Thanks Aqua.

Dreamcast had a solid start, to bad did not last.

 

[Lumyst]

I wonder what the next big unexpected hit will be. I suppose Yokai was in Japan and Tomodachi in Europe. Those types of things are always interesting to watch take place.

Any guesses?

I could see Rime either suprising..or bombing. Same with No Man's Sky. Splatoon could be a maybe potential hit if the Wii U wasn't the Wii U.

Did Nintendo ever say which games would be their "pillars" for next year? I think I remember a quote from an NoE employee that included Splatoon and Zelda as some of the "pillars" for next year, similar to how Mario Kart 8 and SSB are the pillars for this year. Splatoon is (will probably be?) E-Rated and has online competitive elements, so hopefully kids with WiiU's will ask their parents to buy it I'm not expecting anything on the WiiU to be a "big hit" if it's not in the Mario series, but it is an E-rated game so hopefully it can reach, say, Donkey Kong Country TF or Lego City numbers.

 

[Cole Slaw]

BKK is Aqua?

 

[CosmicQueso]

And yet the music, movie, and television industry all have visibility and transparency into not just monthly tracking but WEEKLY tracking. All for free and open to the general public. The game industry is a joke.

Where do I get to see how many CDs Taylor Swift sold last week?

 

[allan-bh]

BKK is Aqua?

No, she is on twitter.

 

[allan-bh]

Where do I get to see how many CDs Taylor Swift sold last week?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmci...moves-1-287-million-copies-in-its-first-week/

 

[CosmicQueso]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmci...moves-1-287-million-copies-in-its-first-week/

But that's week 1, of a major release. Call of Duty was doing exactly this when it was breaking records.

What about... jeez who else released a record two weeks ago? Weezer? I mean, where's the full list of all X thousand CD's in market and how many copies they've sold?

 

[Cole Slaw]

Can NPD issue threats to Twitter or would Twitter slap the shit out of NPD?

 

[Guevara]

I wonder how Xbox One is doing, vis-à-vis Xbox 360. It's almost certainly still ahead, launch aligned but for how long?

 

[Miles X]

I wonder how Xbox One is doing, vis-à-vis Xbox 360. It's almost certainly still ahead, launch aligned but for how long?

360's upcoming Nov was 511k, I say XB1 will have no trouble keeping ahead.

 

[John Harker]

Alright ya'll, just drop it. He apologized all good, I don't get that offended anyway. I just do my thing. But thanks for the nice words

Actually, in the comparable year last gen (2007), they were down fairly significantly too, for a similar reason: a big drop after a major Bungie release.

2007
     Sep   Oct  %CHG
360  528   366  -31%
PS2  215   184  -14%
WII  501   519    4%
PS3  119   121    2%

TOT 1363  1190  -13%

Yea I figured you were going to be one of the few who got where I was going with that.

It's more pronounced though, like -45%

 

[Miles X]

Alright ya'll, just drop it. He apologized all good, I don't get that offended anyway. I just do my thing.




Yea I figured you were going to be one of the few who got where I was going with that.

It's more pronounced though, like -45%

That still puts PS4 at a respectable figure. XB1 not so much.

 

[Mpl90]

Alright ya'll, just drop it. He apologized all good, I don't get that offended anyway. I just do my thing.




Yea I figured you were going to be one of the few who got where I was going with that.

It's more pronounced though, like -45%

Overall, right? So, PS4 and Xbox One drop should be bigger than 45%, right?

 

[CosmicQueso]

I wonder how Xbox One is doing, vis-à-vis Xbox 360. It's almost certainly still ahead, launch aligned but for how long?

Now that's an interesting question.... my math gets me 4-8 more months. Maybe a bit longer if they continue to be creative with bundles and pricing.

If digital sales are not fully making up the gap...

Could season passes, digital only games and microtransactions possibly explain the decline in software revenue at retail? People buying less full price games because they are spending more money on each one (season passes) etc?

The decline of software sales at retail is almost perfectly correlated to the decline in disc based release count. This is the real story no one's really talking about.

 

[Caramello]

If digital sales are not fully making up the gap...

Could season passes, digital only games and microtransactions possibly explain the decline in software revenue at retail? People buying less full price games because they are spending more money on each one (season passes) etc?

 

[allan-bh]

It's more pronounced though, like -45%

If XOne specifically was down around this, was a very disappointing month.

 

[John Harker]

If XOne specifically was down around this, was a very disappointing month.

Xbox was a handful better

 

[Miles X]

Hopefully XB1 broached the 200k mark then ...

 

[allan-bh]

Xbox was a handful better

Good to know.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Xbox was a handful better

Thanks for the info, yeah Xbox being that far down would be an eye opener.

 

[Welfare]

Xbox was a handful better

35%?

30%?

In order to get atleast 200k, the drop would need to be atleast 29%.

Wait, is that unweighted?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Thanks again Harker!

I'd estimate 240K-250K for PS4 and 150-180K for XOne

Not bad

 

[Miles X]

35%?

30%?

In order to get atleast 200k, the drop would need to be atleast 29%.

45% drop combined = 455k~ between the two.

190k vs 265k seems plausible.

 

[Guevara]

Now that's an interesting question.... my math gets me 4-8 more months. Maybe a bit longer if they continue to be creative with bundles and pricing.

Thanks, I used to have these numbers, oh well.

Xbox One is still riding that amazing launch but almost every month since has been down, as compared to Xbox 360. I can see how November will be great, but I don't see how Xbox keeps goosing sales in December and early next year.

 

[BKK]

35%?

30%?

In order to get atleast 200k, the drop would need to be atleast 29%.

Wait, is that unweighted?

How many fingers do you have on your hand?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

In essence Destiny was another flash in the pan game then?

Doing great things for PS4 one month and then dropping off. Seemingly a more extreme version of the phenomena last gen.

My current projections for WiiU are 12.5 million units sold WW at the end of year five or beginning of year six. between 6-6.5 million units in NA.

 

[Mpl90]

Xbox was a handful better

If that 45% refers to overall hardware, then PS4 was a handful worse than 45%

 

[SaintR]

If that 45% refers to overall hardware, then PS4 was a handful worse than 45%

Wouldn't handful mean 40% or am I taking that too literal