-MD-
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The dream.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
The dream.
Interesting.
I expect the Star Wars PS4 bundles to get a gigantic sales boost on Black Friday and in the weeks leading to The Force Awakens.
I also believe that PS4 will almost certainly pass 1 mil+ for November, and if not, we have entered some sort of twilight no sales zone.
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
It makes too much sense to have a 300$ with Star Wars bundle that day. They would do very well in NA if that happens.
Probably because not all people play games for fun and have different priorities when buying a console. I can do a lot things that are fun and I can reasonably assume any console out of the three will have fun games. So I wouldn't make my purchasing decision based on fun.
$300 on the day Force awakens comes out?
Mikey Jr.
Member
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Star Wars bundle is $349. Only the Uncharted bundle will be $299.
I think October was underwhelming because these unbelievable in one sense, and quite possibly disastrous in another sense deals from last year have had a prolonged and lasting effect on consumers this year in terms of feeling like an idiot purchasing a full priced bundle in mid-late October when they can simply wait for Black Friday and get a $299 Uncharted PS4.
Those deals (primarily Xbox One) from Black Friday 14 have actually affected the October 2015 sales by diluting demand of hardware for that month into November.
I expect a huge rebound in November for both consoles, and see PS4 edging out Xbox One in totals. I think Microsoft are being somewhat cautious this year in terms of offering tremendous deals as why would anyone buy a console after Xmas this year if their console is reaching even lower into sub $299 with extras etc come Black Friday.
They obviously have foreseen this trend, and although very good for chest thumping in the short term, could form a disastrous precedent in consumer attitudes in the long term.
I also think Sony would rather not offer a $299 Star Wars bundle as they would probably like to keep margins tight, and the demand is there - looming on the Black Friday horizon.
Primethius
Banned
That's for Black Friday only, no? I think he's referring to a $300 Star Wars bundle near and at Force Awakens launch.
Which would be pretty insane actually.
I doubt they do it but it would be awesome. What I think makes more sense is them playing the launch trailer ahead of the movie with the PS4 advertising the bundle at the end.
These two quotes from Nadella and Spencer really say all there is to say right now. The only question is timing and how they're going to monetize it beyond cost of the games.
Satya Nadella said:
Link
Phil Spencer said:
From his "The Future of Gaming Across the Microsoft Ecosystem" session at GDC in March this year. Link
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I think you are right I misread that.
slavesnyder
Member
No software predictions based on amazon, please. It's just not working.
I did not understand why, but many users with more brain than I have stated this repeatedly.
But: if charting means top 10, Halo should be there anyway.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah I mean its coming. Its not really a theory. Its a matter of how it will work exactly and what they do to monetize at this point
Primethius
Banned
Never forget Bloodborne and Hardline. Amazon software is largely meaningless.
slavesnyder
Member
I don't know why they should do this. I can imagine that they earn money plus sell the amount they produced at really good pace.
Why giving up profit only to create more demand than they can serve?
Hockeymac18
Member
I'm not using it as an ultimate predictor - but it's an interesting observation, no? Only 3 games (all multiplatform, so are condensed to one entry in the top 10) are above it.
And yes, "charting" means in the top 10, as it's always referred to here.
Good to know. I wouldn't think using an aggregation of the entire month (not the hourly charts, which I agree are pretty useless) would be that far off. I imagine a lot of that is further confounded by comparing games on a single platform to games that are on multiple systems.
All I was really trying to show was that Halo 5 seems to be still selling decently. At least at Amazon. I personally thought it would have a good November, so to me is encouraging - but, of course, anything can happen - and this is not an exact science.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Amazon is horrible when it comes to predicting software rankings. See RexNovis's signature for Exhibit A.
CosmicQueso
Member
You tell 'em.
You left out the "indicating, to me at least," part.
Fixed.
Adding to the interesting.
Hockeymac18
Member
You left out the "indicating, to me at least," part
. I also didn't realize that Amazon could be that far off from reality (Halo 5 is also only being beaten by 2 games in all of 2015 - so Amazon must be crazy off - although again, these are just single instances of multiplatform games).
Comparing multiplatform games against games on a single platform is always difficult, I guess. I suppose we'll just see.
Primethius
Banned
I don't think they will either. A good marketing push alongside the Force Awakens hype should be plenty.
I guess we'll see early next year. I think Killer Instinct will be the first cross-buy, cross-platform MP Xbox game to release in March and hopefully we see what kind of traction, if any, the initiative has after Gears of War Ultimate, Fable Legends, Cup Head, Sea of Thieves, and Halo Wars 2 release throughout the year.
slavesnyder
Member
I agree. Strangely I made a similar comment a few days ago, also with Halo doing well on Amazon. That's when I learned my lesson.
I believe Halo will do well, but November is tricky with black friday. Many games will be heavily discounted or soft bundled. And they all count for NPD. So if Halo isn't one of them it might be one of the best-selling full-price games all month, but suddenly be overtaken by stuff like Splatoon, GTA 5, Minecraft, Madden and whatnot.
slavesnyder
Member
Iirc someone posted that the game is not allowed to run ads before the film. No idea if true, but that's plain stupid.
theprodigy
Member
Amazon software (monthly) isn't necessarily terrible, but you have to keep in mind the lean that site carries.
Otherwise you walk into Bloodborne/BF:Hardline and Bayonetta 2 situations.
Otherwise you walk into Bloodborne/BF:Hardline and Bayonetta 2 situations.
Hockeymac18
Member
Curious, what you mean by "lean".
There's a very good chance I'll be wrong. Just thought it was an interesting observation of the current month at a single site. I fully acknowledge that there are a lot of variables at play, and Black Friday could change everything.
Primethius
Banned
This game or in general? I've seen ads for games before movies. But that's strange if it's the case for this game.
slavesnyder
Member
I won't find the post but remember I read it. Don't know if it's true though.
It was about Battlefront not allowed to be advertised before Star Wars. Maybe they did not want to create confusion in the audience.
CosmicQueso
Member
Indeed.
ENJOY THANKSGIVING, ALL!!
Hockeymac18
Member
Believe in yourself.
Indeed.
Haha, thanks. Not entirely what you're trying to say (other than poking fun at me), but I get it. No more Halo sales talk based on Amazon.
Edit: Enjoy your Thanksgiving, too.
slavesnyder
Member
Mr.Queso is acting strangely.
Cannot tell if he's bored, in love or just became insane because November is so damn interesting.
Cannot tell if he's bored, in love or just became insane because November is so damn interesting.
Primethius
Banned
I think the other threads broke him.
I've had a thought... What if Microsoft just transitioned their franchises to a F2P model? I mean, supposedly they would be transitioning away from consoles towards the PC and mobile markets, but if you look at both markets, F2P games dominate in revenue and it is much more than what consoles theoretically give alone even with DLC and a yearly online fee. In addition, Popular F2P games like League of Legends aren't on Steam so they can have their first-party games be hosted on their Windows/Xbox Store exclusively. While MS would have to deal with supporting the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store, the mobile market is also far too big and important to merely ignore or to try a self-made solution over just giving Apple and Google that victory as it were.
CosmicQueso
Member
Not poking fun. Just having fun.
But then Nightingale's post revived me.
Calm before the storm of Black Friday, and analysis Monday lol
I think he's hinting at something related to halo 5.
Edit: Nevermind it looks like he's joking with hockeymac18.
Oh lord its that time again!
I don't think they're transitioning away from consoles so much as they're transitioning to a broader platform that also includes the ability to use a console, but I think there's an important distinction that it seems to be all for the sake of raising the appeal of their OS, which presumably would result in more Windows users and ultimately in more Windows Store purchases, more Bing searches (and advertising), more Office subscriptiongs, etc. With that point in mind I don't see them giving anything gaming related away on other OS at this time. You may be wanting to point out that Office is on other OS, which is true, but it's also one of Nadella's three major pillars, whereas Xbox has been made a supporting function of the Windows pillar. In other words, it would be up to the Windows team on where Xbox games are available to purchase and play, so I don't see that team giving away games.
In time though? I think Xbox will have more games like Crackdown that are powered by the cloud, so then the OS becomes less of a factor, but the Live account still matters. That's closer to the Office 365 model they have now, but that seems far off for gaming based on where they are now.
You could be right about them adapting to models like F2P that have been growing in popularity, because it could be a way to drive higher Live account creation and engagement. Since they just said that's what they're going to report for Xbox in earnings statements going forward I wouldn't be surprised to see more low barriers to entry on some of their releases.
They seem to be experimenting with various F2P and GaaS models with games like Project Spark (it's dead), KI, and Fable Legends. Maybe Sea of Thieves will be F2P, too? Then there was that Halo Online game that was leaked recently, but I believe that was just for China and/or Russia. In any case, they seem to be willing to experiment with different ways to bring games to market, so I wouldn't rule out anything in terms of the pay model for individual games.
Beyond "just" the F2P model: The majority of Microsoft's first party games and/or games with close Microsoft relationship have had casino-style random draws, card packs, and other microtransactions-tailored designs.
Some sooner, some later, some paid, some not, but I think they are clearly experimenting with the "bottomless random packs" microtransaction approach in different ways.
Some sooner, some later, some paid, some not, but I think they are clearly experimenting with the "bottomless random packs" microtransaction approach in different ways.
They took the RnG Destiny success to heart it seems. I'm not at all fond of it myself. In fact it was one of the main reasons I stopped playing Destiny.
Welfare
Member
Halo 5's REQ system was pitched in early 2013, so that wouldn't be because of Destiny.
I don't think it was Destiny, really. All their launch games were already heavy into microtransactions where remotely possible.
It just seems like they are finding the pot of gold with wheelspins (racing games) and card packs (everything else).
Hard to tell how, if at all, something like Rise of the Tomb Raider was actually influenced by this or if it was more of a Square Enix thing, though. Seems like a big coincidence.
super-heated plasma
Member
Indeed.
ENJOY THANKSGIVING, ALL!!
Hairstyles change.
Interest rates fluctuate.
My eternal respect to anyone who knows what I'm referencing.
That would be insane and will sell a ton.
I'd argue theyve already made a concerted effort to do just that by forcing online components in all of their first party releases. Granted they aren't locked behind a live paywall but if you want the full experience for these games you have be a subscriber.
This is all news to me. I dont remember reading about any of this being stated before. Can you post a source for this? I mean yea that certainly clarifies a few things but I'd like some confirmation before I take it as gospel.
Square2015
Member
Good point.
Thanks
Maybe I should make a new thread each month but also make a post in the NPD threads like this.
Yeah Snap got a lot of hype being the first Pokémon title on N64, didn't matter what the genre was. This was only about a year since Blue/Red were released.
okay, thanks
Yes.
No, it was bumped by the holiday bundle (M$ released one every October).
I feel like my tag should just be changed to "Danger! Using Amazon charts as an indicator of software sales is hazardous to your health" then maybe people will see that and think twice before making the same mistake.
That is an excellent point. I think you might be right on that. I guess I just assumed Xbox would be synonymous with games in general for them. Do you have any info where Xbox is listed as a supporting function under the existing windows pillar as opposed to a function of their efforts towards universal compatibility?
The problem with cloud gaming has always been the infrastructure. That's not a problem I see being solved anytime soon so I really doubt the concerted push for cloud supported gaming will happen anytime in the near future.
I think Killer Instinct was a test to see how the market would respond. I'm not sure how successful that was and since the goal is universal coverage I think future free to play efforts hinge largely on the success of the model on their console audience. Does anyone have any data on how profitable Killer Instinct has been for MS? I agree Fable Legends looks to me to be their next testing ground for the FTP model. I don't think there has been any indication that Sea of Thieves will be FTP yet. I think the Halo Online game was just an effort to gain ground in very FTP and PC dominated markets more so than a test for FTP with the Halo brand. I also think it was shut down if I remember correctly. If anything I would say this
is the biggest indication we have that things might be switching over to FTP models for their first party releases. As of right now they seem perfectly comfortable with charging for both the game and microtransactions though. By all accounts it seems to be working for them with Halo so far.
spatenfloot
Member
I know a little German...