I just can't bring myself to seeing the MCC as a big system seller, however what I do think is that MS is going go in big time in Nov. While the MCC itself might not move as many systems, I could see some mad BF deals happening that really get things moving.
Like you said, what MS must fear the most at the moment is the network effect kicking in more and more. It's how the 360 came to dominate NA last gen. So I think they will do their best to slow down the PS4.
With that said, the reason I believe the PS4 will win November is because I think Sony is going to impress with some good deals of their own. A lot of people seem to expect that they'll sit back and do nothing while MS is giving away multiple games and cutting prices. I don't think that'll be the case and I don't think Sony will be complacent. They know they're ahead, and they know that they can't let momentum slow down now. They also must know that MS is going to be pushing hard. So far, they've marketed the PS4 excellently and I don't see why that would change in November.