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[Infamous Chris]

#7 is a flop huh? Take the blinders off. The game is excellent and they keep updating it to make it even better. Not crap at all, I can give you a long list of FPS games it's better than....

Nobody cares what your opinion of a good FPS is, bro. There is a reason everyone is calling it a flop; it sold less than 250k (<180k~) based off comparing Deus Ex numbers. And the game is hardly anything special, to boot, which seems to be the general consensus.

Anyway, Gears only selling for a bit more than a week did good..the rest of the sales numbers should trickle into next months NPD. Lol @ Dead Island :O

 

[ThisWreckage]

UC3 will be fine if it can move more than 1.4 million.

Very, very few PS3 games have debuted over a million, let alone in a crowded month.

I'd also like to chime in and say that Sony should have abandoned the Resistance franchise after Resistance 2.

 

[Kagari]

Very, very few PS3 games have debuted over a million, let alone in a crowded month.

I'd also like to chime in and say that Sony should have abandoned the Resistance franchise after Resistance 2.

Talking LTD.

 

[BKK]

I had to laugh at this one….


PS3 owns 9 of the 10 top ten plans.
360 also owns 9/10 top titles, each had 1 exclusive there… just a funny statement from their PR dept.….


Software (New physical retail only, across all platforms including PC)
01. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)** Electronic Arts
02. Gears of War 3 (360)** Microsoft (Corp)
03. Dead Island (360, PS3, PC) Deep Silver
04. FIFA Soccer 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS) Electronic Arts
05. NHL 12 (360, PS3) Electronic Arts
06. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (360, PS3, PC)** Square Enix Inc
07. Resistance 3 (PS3) Sony (Corp)
08. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, NDS, 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC) LucasArts
09. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (360, PS3, PC) THQ

You're quoting the All Formats chart, Microsoft was commenting on the Individual Console Formats chart.

 

[Infamous Chris]

Talking LTD.

Why would UC3 not move more than 1.4m LTD? It will easily do that with all the marketing Sony is doing.

 

[Mr. B Natural]

Of course #7 can be a failure depending on what that actually means for sales. If it's a high budget game with no legs? Absolutely. These days when sometimes 1 or 2 games sell well then there's a steep falloff. Then consider the way the NPD consolidates things, sometimes #7 wouldn't have been on the charts at all if madden was taken up 3 slots, etc. It can go both ways in that regard.

 

[Cornbread78]

You're quoting the All Formats chart, Microsoft was commenting on the Individual Console Formats chart.

I didn't see that chart, I just love reading PR speech, lol.

 

[Cornbread78]

Of course #7 can be a failure depending on what that actually means for sales. If it's a high budget game with no legs? Absolutely. These days when sometimes 1 or 2 games sell well then there's a steep falloff. Then consider the way the NPD consolidates things, sometimes #7 wouldn't have been on the charts at all if madden was taken up 3 slots, etc. It can go both ways in that regard.

Well, with the limited (if any) marketing for the game, I think it did pretty well.

 

[Elios83]

Comments on this month's numbers:

Excellent numbers for the 360, yeah it's clear that without a price cut they'll be down yoy for the rest of the year but it's still really impressive that they can do these numbers.
PS3 did really well, people really understimated/forgot about the price cut because of the august results which didn't tell the whole story (really weak first half of the month, sudden announcement, no ads until the end of august). PS3 is positioned for yoy growth for the rest of the year and that was the point of the 50$ price cut.
Average performance for Nintendo, 3DS is still not doing the numbers Nintendo was hoping for after the price cut (see Japan). DS and Wii are on their way out.
On the software side Gears 3 did really well and better than I expected, the question is if sales will stop once the next COD game is out.
Resistance 3.......emmm....I see it as a series with no precise appeal and not in same league of the biggest titles in the genre. Hopefully thay have wrapped it up with the third game and they move on to something new in its place.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

#7 doesn't mean anything, so doesn't #1 or #3; <180K does though.


it won't, though BF3+MW3 will.

MW3 pre-orders are exceeding Black Ops pre-orders. Black Ops sold 8.4 million in November 2010.

Combined SKUs
Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, Wii, PC, NDS) ACTIVISION BLIZZARD - 8.4M
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (360, PS3) UBISOFT
Just Dance 2 (Wii) UBISOFT
Madden NFL 11 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP) ELECTRONIC ARTS
Fable III (360) MICROSOFT
Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii) NINTENDO
Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit (PS3, 360, Wii, PC) ELECTRONIC ARTS
Gran Turismo 5 (PS3) SONY
NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP,PC) TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
Wii Fit Plus (Wii) NINTENDO

Individual SKUS
Call of Duty: Black Ops (360) ACTIVISION BLIZZARD ~ 4.9M
Call of Duty: Black Ops (PS3) ACTIVISION BLIZZARD ~ 3.1M
Just Dance 2 (Wii) UBISOFT ~ 664K
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (360) UBISOFT ~ 718K
Fable III (360) MICROSOFT ~ 551K
Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii) NINTENDO ~ 430K
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (PS3) UBISOFT ~ 425K
Gran Turismo 5 (PS3) SONY ~ 399K
Halo Reach (360) Microsoft ~ 355K
Wii Fit Plus (Wii) NINTENDO ~ 353K

Other Sales figures:
Dance Central - 350k
Kinect Sports - 323k
Need For Speed Hot Pursuit PS3 - 203k
Need For Speed Hot Pursuit 360 - 201k
Metroid Other M LTD ~ 300k
Iron Man 2 DS - >40k
Michael Jackson The Experience ~ 100k
Goldeneye Wii - 73k

Keep in mind that there is a new NFS, new Dance Central, and a new Kinect Sports this year as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if Skyrim debuted around 500-600k as well.

The only guaranteed million sellers in November are CoD, AC, and Zelda as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Eternia]

I didn't see that chart, I just love reading PR speach, lol.

They were using the old format of NPD before it was changed. Sales-gaf loves it because it actually gives some sort of information unlike the current format of merging all sales of every format.

What's funny is someone who doesn't understand this comes into a NPD thread being incredibly defensive just spewing 'wtf' at something that's absolutely a legitimate claim.

Resistance as a viable big IP could be in flux right now too. The second game did mild numbers inside a holiday period. So for the third they were taken just outside of the holidays and it completely regresses. Insonmiac also said this could be their last game for the franchise. Lots of question marks surrounding it right now.

 

[Lord Error]

I honestly didn't realize that Sony/MS/Nintendo counted them toward the overall sales of a game when its included as a perk to buy their console. No disrespect to Uncharted or any other game bundled but that seems kinda cheap to inflate sales for that particulat title.

Not really. Buying a game as a part of the bundle is not any different than buying it separate when it's on sale. Bundles are always more expensive than buying just the console alone, so you're still not getting the game for free, you're buying it at a discount - and there's obvious buyer intent to get that game, otherwise they'd just buy console only, which is cheaper.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So for the October NPD, my expectations


Battlefield 3-2m
Batman-1.2m
2K12-700k
Forza 4-300k
Rage-250k
Kirby-100k


Is that about what everyone else would expect? That would be a big dip for 2K, but with interest in the NBA way down with the lockout, I would expect interest in 2K to drop as well.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Not really. Buying a game as a part of the bundle is not any different than buying it separate when it's on sale. Bundles are always more expensive than buying just the console alone, so you're still not getting the game for free, you're buying it at a discount - and there's obvious buyer intent to get that game, otherwise they'd just buy console only, which is cheaper.

Lots of bundles include the game for free, especially in PAL territories. MS usually does a holiday bundle with two free games, and Nintendo has been bundling two games (instead of one) with the Wii for some time now.

 

[LosDaddie]

Not really. Buying a game as a part of the bundle is not any different than buying it separate when it's on sale. Bundles are always more expensive than buying just the console alone, so you're still not getting the game for free, you're buying it at a discount - and there's obvious buyer intent to get that game, otherwise they'd just buy console only, which is cheaper.

Not really. I bought the X360S Holiday Bundle last year and have yet to play either Alan Wake or Forza 3. I would've bought a cheaper SKU (with no games) if it was available.

 

[Cornbread78]

They were using the old format of NPD before it was changed. Sales-gaf loves it because it actually gives some sort of information unlike the current format of merging all sales of every format.

Resistance as a viable big IP could be in flux right now too. The second game did mild numbers inside a holiday period. So for the third they were taken just outside of the holidays and it completely regresses. Insonmiac also said this could be their last game for the franchise. Lots of question marks surrounding it right now.

I'll take the high road here:
I remember the old formats and they definately supplied more info, however, I don't get caught up with them like others. The Sku chart woudl be great, but that been burried as we all know.

You may be right about the Resistance Franchise as a whole. We've all seen the stories that have been posted. I would jsut defend those that are calling it "Complete crap" or that is flopped hardcore. IMO, it's a fun game and has a lot of reply value for SP and MP. I eould liek to see what happens to the series next and who takes it over if so. There are so many places they can go with the series, there is no reason at all to kill it off yet. Ehy can jsut keep making it better.

 

[BKK]

R3 will struggle to get anywhere near 1m worldwide without bundling, the franchise is dead IMO. Time to move on and create a new IP for next gen.

 

[Cornbread78]

R3 will struggle to get anywhere near 1m worldwide without bundling, the franchise is dead IMO. Time to move on and create a new IP for next gen.

That's exactly what they are doing.....They already have their new Multi plat. IP

 

[TheOddOne]

R3 will struggle to get anywhere near 1m worldwide without bundling, the franchise is dead IMO. Time to move on and create a new IP for next gen.

I think Sony will hand this off to their internal developers to create handheld spin-offs, main games will get a rest for a while. Though, I would not be suprised if the next one isn't already greenlit.

 

[Loudninja]

R3 will struggle to get anywhere near 1m worldwide without bundling, the franchise is dead IMO. Time to move on and create a new IP for next gen.

Well you are wrong.

 

[EagleEyes]

Well you are wrong.

Whats he wrong about? Care to explain.

 

[Kusagari]

MW3 pre-orders are exceeding Black Ops pre-orders. Black Ops sold 8.4 million in November 2010.



Keep in mind that there is a new NFS, new Dance Central, and a new Kinect Sports this year as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if Skyrim debuted around 500-600k as well.

The only guaranteed million sellers in November are CoD, AC, and Zelda as far as I'm concerned.

Only 500-600k for Skyrim? I wouldn't be surprised at 750k+, possibly a mill, combined. The hype is insane for it.

 

[BKK]

Well you are wrong.

Yes, please elaborate because it's not even at 300k between US, UK, and JP.

 

[noobie]

Yes, please elaborate because it's not even at 300k between US, UK, and JP.

I think its showing a bit better legs in UK atleast.. not falling that sharply.. rather risen a bit last week from No. 13 to 9. Although it might not have risen in sales (which i know is possible). but still a bit better showing.. so it might be getting good word of mouth.. and if it receive a holiday boast then it can do reasonable numbers

i think it will be interesting when we will start getting European market top 20/50 sales from Nintendo. or year end sales from other european markets.
So i feel it will do better in Europe then in US.. so overall i expect it to hit 1.5 million

 

[Metal Gear?!]

What does Halo have to do with UC3? Different platform. Look at the hardware sales. PS3 is getting a boost and 360 is staying at a high level. Seems like they aren't cutting into each other right now hardware wise.

Controversial conclusion:

Spoiler

Wii U might be in trouble

The Wii U was in trouble the moment it was unveiled.

 

[Loudninja]

I think its showing a bit better legs in UK atleast.. not falling that sharply.. rather risen a bit last week from No. 13 to 9. Although it might not have risen in sales (which i know is possible). but still a bit better showing.. so it might be getting good word of mouth.. and if it receive a holiday boast then it can do reasonable numbers

i think it will be interesting when we will start getting European market top 20/50 sales from Nintendo. or year end sales from other european markets.
So i feel it will do better in Europe then in US.. so overall i expect it to hit 1.5 million

Yeah IG said their games do better in Eruope.

Yes, please elaborate because it's not even at 300k between US, UK, and JP.

So did the official number get release or something?I already know about Japan and the US numbers.

I seen estimations from you for UK sales and that it.

 

[Phonomezer]

The only guaranteed million sellers in November are CoD, AC, and Zelda as far as I'm concerned.

Halo Anniversary will sell over 1 million easily.

 

[French]

R3 is a total bomba. 175K is terrible, especially considering that R2 did 385K in the Nov 08 NPD ( and ~250k in December ).

And it's bombing in Europe too.

Franchise will probably be dead after the Vita's episode.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

If Halo and Uncharted both went over a million, we'd be looking at a November sales chart with

MW3 > 6 million
AC Revelation > 1.5 million
Zelda > 1 million
Skyrim > 1 million
Halo > 1 million
Uncharted > 1 million
Super Mario 3D land > 500k
Battlefield 3 > 500k
Arkham City > 500k
Just Dance 3 > 500k
NBA 2k12 > 500k

Is that even remotely realistic? Something has to give.

I think some of those expectations are a bit off. My thoughts:

- Perhaps Battlefield will eat a little bit into CoD's numbers this year. CoD will still be huge regardless.
- Assassin's Creed didn't break 1.5 million on PS3+360 on release last year, probably won't this year. PC version isn't out until the end of November. Could see a small drop compared to last year with this being the third AC in three years.
- I reckon Zelda and Mario have enough loyal fans to succeed, many of whom probably wouldn't be buying most of the other games listed anyway so these two may be relatively unaffected by the busy November period.
- Skyrim should have no problems reaching combined sales of 1 million, it's the biggest and most anticipated mutliplatform RPG in November and it's been a long time coming (how much competition is there in the western RPG genre for 360 and PS3 this holiday?). I think there's a decent amount of pent up demand for it, should do especially well on 360.
- Halo should break 1 million in 2 weeks of sales (that's more than 2 million less than Reach managed on launch in September 2010 over a similar amount of time). The series still has a huge fanbase, not all of whom care for the CoD-style FPS. It comes will a bunch of new maps for Reach's multiplayer too, which will help.
- I think Uncharted 3 will fall a little short of 1 million rather than being over 1 million.
- Arkham City probably won't sell over 500K on the November NPD chart. The PS3+360 versions will have already had 2 weeks on sale in October and November is packed with new releases.
- Just Dance 3 is targeting a totally different audience than the majority of these games, should sell fine as long as there's another holiday upswing in casual Wii game purchasing. Maybe the Kinect version will catch on too.

BTW in November 2009 we know at least 7 titles were about 500K or more, 4 of which were around 1 million or more, with CoD over 6 million.

 

[Effect]

MW3 pre-orders are exceeding Black Ops pre-orders. Black Ops sold 8.4 million in November 2010.



Keep in mind that there is a new NFS, new Dance Central, and a new Kinect Sports this year as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if Skyrim debuted around 500-600k as well.

The only guaranteed million sellers in November are CoD, AC, and Zelda as far as I'm concerned.

On this note, do we know what Zelda: Skyward Sword pre-orders are looking like? I know it has a decent rank on Amazon.com (the bundle is far out selling the standard game). Has any retailer or analyst commented on it?

 

[bigtroyjon]

Well, with the limited (if any) marketing for the game, I think it did pretty well.

Had a widespread national ad campaign. There was nothing limited about the marketing for this game.

Game bombed, you can sit and spin your wheels all you want but nothing you try and come up with is going to change that.

 

[BKK]

I think its showing a bit better legs in UK atleast.. not falling that sharply.. rather risen a bit last week from No. 13 to 9. Although it might not have risen in sales (which i know is possible). but still a bit better showing.. so it might be getting good word of mouth.. and if it receive a holiday boast then it can do reasonable numbers

i think it will be interesting when we will start getting European market top 20/50 sales from Nintendo. or year end sales from other european markets.
So i feel it will do better in Europe then in US.. so overall i expect it to hit 1.5 million

It's not doing great in Europe either;

Germany*: #26 in Individual Formats Chart
Scandinavia: Outside Top10 PS3 chart
Netherlands: #10 in PS3 Chart

We only get limited charts for France, Italy, and Spain, but it didn't set any of those charts on fire either.

*Requires account, will post Top100 in PAL chart later

 

[chemicals]

Yeah Dead Island has good word of mouth. I just had some (know nothing) kid telling me how "Dead Island has already been voted Game Of The Year" and so on.

Silly little bastard.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If the Xbox 360 keeps outselling the Wii, how long before the steams cross again?

January to September, X360:Wii is about 1.46:1. If that were to hold, they'd meet up again around 53 million. Nearly double X360's current userbase, and beyond where DS is now.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Only 500-600k for Skyrim? I wouldn't be surprised at 750k+, possibly a mill, combined. The hype is insane for it.

Skyrim will be, at best, the 3rd or 4th biggest release on PS3 and 360 in November, and it won't outsell Uncharted on PS3. PC DD won't factor into NPD reported sales.

Halo Anniversary will sell over 1 million easily.

ODST sold 1.5 million with less competition, and it was actually a new game. There is zero precedent for HD remakes pulling those kind of numbers.

If Uncharted, Skyrim, and Halo all went over a million, with AC over 1.5 million and CoD over 9 million, we'd be looking at the biggest November in history, in a year where software sales have been down or flat across the board. At this point I think it's far more realistic that one or more games will underperform compared to expectations, at least right out of the gate. There has been only one November this entire generation (2009) where even 3 individual SKUs sold over 1 million.

Edit: I completely forgot about Saints Row 3. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck someone is going to lose their shirt this holiday.

 

[Kusagari]

What are people expecting for Arkham City next month?

 

[Elios83]

Resistance 3 180k

Bomba XD?

 

[theDeeDubs]

What did the last Zelda chart? I wasn't expecting SS to be over 1 mil.

 

[LosDaddie]

Halo Anniversary will sell over 1 million easily.

Really? With Halo's fanbase, I guess I can see that.

I love Halo Reach (still play it regularly), but I'm not buying it. I'm waiting for the map pack. I don't really have any desire to play Halo CE again. Too many other/new games.

 

[walking fiend]

MW3 pre-orders are exceeding Black Ops pre-orders. Black Ops sold 8.4 million in November 2010.

That PR is from e3 and only one store, don't base your predictions on it too much.

 

[06nbarnhill]

What did the last Zelda chart? I wasn't expecting SS to be over 1 mil.

Last Zelda was a launch game. Can't really compare.

(even as a launch game last I heard it sold about 5 million WW)



I however do expect Zelda to be over 1 million. I think it could challenge AC3 for the 2nd spot on the chart.

 

[Kazerei]

What did the last Zelda chart? I wasn't expecting SS to be over 1 mil.

NPD November 2006:

Wii Legend of Zelda - NOA 412K

NPD December 2006:

GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 532.9 K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 519.2 K

 

[Globox_82]

Resistance 3 180k

Bomba XD?

well game is stellar, however, they have only themselves to blame. Second one ruined this ip, imho

 

[Loudninja]

I guess R2 YTD is 3 million?

Resistance 2 went on to sell around three million copies worldwide.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-10-14-resistance-3-sales-well-down-on-r2

 

[Globox_82]

I guess R2 YTD is 3 million?

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-10-14-resistance-3-sales-well-down-on-r2

"sold" as in bundled at least half of those 3 mil.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Twilight Princess was supply constrained by Wii hardware. Skyward Sword should have a much larger launch.

That PR is from e3 and only one store, don't base your predictions on it too much.

Black Ops is not only the best selling PS360 game of 2010, but one of the biggest selling PS360 games of 2011 as well, and the best selling US game of all time (~14 million sold by March 2010, US only). It passed MW2 a while back and the CoD fanbase is still increasing every month. As long as the series has legs like this it's difficult to make a downward trending sales prediction for new entries.

9 million might be too low.

Edit2: Damn, I also forgot Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 and King of Fighters XIII.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I guess R2 YTD is 3 million?

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-10-14-resistance-3-sales-well-down-on-r2

Number can go in the op I guess, sounds like official confirmation.

PlayStation 3 FPS sequel Resistance 3 sold 180,000 units during its first month on sale in the US, NPD analyst Anita Frazier has told Eurogamer.

 

[Kusagari]

R2 only did 385k in NOVEMBER and the general populace hated the game. What exactly were people expecting for 3?

 

[Loudninja]

Number can go in the op I guess, sounds like official confirmation.

I thought we already knew that,so I didn't bother.

 

[Cipherr]

Number can go in the op I guess, sounds like official confirmation.

See that's why chart position shouldn't be used to try and assume how much a title sold. I would have guess 3 times that number damn near. And I was thinking of joining the 'estimate NPD' thread next month. No thanks, I don't have a clue. I would have been like, a million off this month.