Support NeoGAF

[Phonomezer]

I am saying lower than Uncharted 2. I think U2 sold around 550k. I will say U3 will sell around 300k. I predict that it will sell less than U2.

U3 will sell just as much as U2 in the long run, they'll bundle it a month later like they did with U2.

 

[EagleEyes]

Why everyone forget Super Mario 3D land, however?
It's a freakin brand new 3D Mario! XD

True. I dont own a 3DS so it slipped my mind but you are absolutely right about it being a contender in Nov.

 

[StealthGoblin]

I think Uncharted 3 will be fine.

Uncharted 2 was a success and a lot of people have played it, either buying it new, or used. The quality of the game should have shone through.

I can't see very many people who bought it/played it and enjoyed it not wanting more Uncharted.

 

[EagleEyes]

U3 will sell just as much as U2 in the long run, they'll bundle it a month later like they did with U2.

Do bundles count toward their overall sales?

 

[El-Suave]

All the people predicting sales doom for Uncharted 3 due to its release date should remember Assassin's Creed has been doing fine every single year so far. It usually launches even later and after almost all the big games are out. If you liked the previous games in the franchise you plan your spending accordingly and try to make sure you have some money left when a sequel hits.

Personally I love games that give the rest of us some shiny big budget alternatives right next to the dudebro section.

 

[user_nat]

Do bundles count toward their overall sales?

For NPD? Nope
For Sony shipment numbers? Yes

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

U3 will sell just as much as U2 in the long run, they'll bundle it a month later like they did with U2.

I was talking about next month numbers, not overall numbers

 

[KKRT00]

Do bundles count toward their overall sales?

Why wouldnt they? Its the same like with other games.

 

[Phonomezer]

I was talking about next month numbers, not overall numbers

I agree. Uncharted can't stand up to software onslaught around it's release. Hopefully it does more than U2 though!

Do bundles count toward their overall sales?

Yes, they will be reported as sales by Sony/Nintendo/MS/etc, but NPD does not include them.

 

[EagleEyes]

Why wouldnt they? Its the same like with other games.

I honestly didn't realize that Sony/MS/Nintendo counted them toward the overall sales of a game when its included as a perk to buy their console. No disrespect to Uncharted or any other game bundled but that seems kinda cheap to inflate sales for that particulat title.

 

[DrForester]

Mario will do well in November (and probably for the next 5+ years), but it won't surprise me if it doesn't chart in the top 10. There's a lot of stuff coming out in November, and the 3DS's limited user base at this time might just not make it possible to get the numbers to chart.

 

[Luckyman]

With Uncharted 2 at 4.9 million, the good buzz around the franchise and with the larger PS3 userbase, I think Uncharted 3 could be around the million mark on NPD month of release.

Nah. 1 million is pushing it. Its still smaller than God of War 3

 

[flyinpiranha]

The problem I see Uncharted 3 having is that the MW/BF players will wait and buy used or rent because they aren't into the online. That's a huge customer base right there. $60 is a lot to spend on a game especially for a single player game. I highly doubt Uncharted 2 would be sitting at 4.9m if it had not been bundled.

I hope it doesn't get lost in the mix, but looking at that list of games coming out and owning all 3 systems ... I would probably get Skyrim, Saints Row 3 and Zelda before uncharted ... that's $180 before even looking at U3.

But that's all moot as I'm part of the problem with the dying sales numbers ... I GameFly. But last year that's what I would have done.

 

[Auto_aim1]

Uncharted 3 will be neglected and slaughtered next month.

Sony is promoting it really well, and after the reception the second game got, I suspect it will do 5 million or so, which is very good.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

I agree. Uncharted can't stand up to software onslaught around it's release. Hopefully it does more than U2 though!

I am sure that U3 will outsell U2 in LTD numbers, since Uncharted became more recognizable and there is now larger PS3 install base.

 

[Huff]

Saints Row 2 shipped over 3.4 million copies: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6275972/saints-row-warhammer-40k-series-sales-top-6-million

The biggest issue that might occur is series that should perform really well will underperform simply because there are too many titles.

I totally agree. I don't think SR3 is going to escape this, so I wouldn't put it in the same category as a BF3, MW3, Skyrim. That was my only point.

 

[Mr. B Natural]

I really hope no one here didn't buy the game because they didn't like R2, especially if they liked RFOM. A small bit of research would have shown it doesn't take after R2 at all.

Why would someone do research for a game/series they lost interest in?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Insomniac Games < 180k

Do people believe me now when I say PS3 shooters should go the Valve dual release route?

Any shooter that isn't Battlefield or CoD is going to get murdered this holiday.

 

[EagleEyes]

Do people believe me now when I say PS3 shooters should go the Valve dual release route?

Any shooter that isn't Battlefield or CoD is going to get murdered this holiday.

I think Halo Anniversary will do fine. Easily over a million in its first month.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Any shooter that isn't Battlefield or CoD is going to get murdered this holiday.

I don't think most shooters outside of those need to sell anywhere near them to be successful on their own, but yeah, it seems that Insomniac picked a good time to dip their toes into multiplatform development.

Still dislike the new era of NPD numbers.

 

[French]

Uncharted 3 will be neglected and slaughtered next month.

Actually, it will probably do 800k+ first month, and could even do 1M, like GoW III.

 

[Curufinwe]

I am not wishing for anything. Have you seen the upcoming games? Since when casual gamers look for scores to buy games? Between BF, MW, Zelda and Saints Row, i don´t think U3 will do that well. It would do 200-300k in November. I can´t see it beating the previous game but selling more than 500k.

I think it's crazy to suggest that U3 will sell less copies in 30 days of November 2011 than U2 sold in 18 days of October 2009. November is a far bigger retail month.

 

[LosDaddie]

DAT MADDEN

Damn, I actually thought Gears 3 would pull off the #1 spot since MS had announced 3M units sold to gamers. I guess that was a WW number. I hope we get numbers for both games.

Good YoY sales for the HD twins. I think MS might actually wait until next year to do price cuts. Crazy.

I think Arkham City is going to stall a lot of UC3 sales for now..

I'm actually considering doing this. I have UC3 paid off and I really want to play it, but I think I might be more hyped for AC. I'm satisfied with Gears 3 MP right now, so I don't know how much UC3 MP I would play. So I might just switch my pre-order to AC for a great SP-only game

EDIT: I should clarify, as to not anger some console warriors, that I will still buy UC3 in the future. Just not at launch.

 

[Lesiroth]

I'm not sure why I expected the PS3 to sell a lot lower than that. Good for Sony I guess. Good numbers all around.

 

[Mpl90]

First to 10 million wins!

But they "cheated" releasing the console one year before the others. ...And however, Mattrick XD
Instead, Iwata's theory is far more balanced and it's demonstrated by numbers. I checked now 360 numbers and... even it started low, and then started gaining space thanks to Gears of War. Really, consoles in USA normally don't start with a great bang immediatly: they need to increase penetration in consumers' mind, and they need also software to do it.
And 3DS this Holiday will have it.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Damn, I actually thought Gears 3 would pull off the #1 spot since MS had announced 3M units sold to gamers. I guess that was a WW number. I hope we get numbers for both games.

Greenberg mentioned 2 million:

NPD shows Xbox 360 #1 selling console in Sept, 438K units and Gears 3 #1 title with over 2M units sold-through.

http://twitter.com/#!/aarongreenberg/status/124598510866792448

The "#1" bit maybe means Gears 3 is top seller on the individual formats chart?

 

[ThisWreckage]

Don't be surprised if Uncharted 3 sales around the same in its first month as Uncharted 2 did, but fails to show up in the top ten. That month is absolutely packed as far as software goes. In the end, Uncharted 3 will move more copies than Uncharted 2, but the first couple of months are going to be rough for that game. It really should have launched in October.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

If Halo and Uncharted both went over a million, we'd be looking at a November sales chart with

MW3 > 6 million
AC Revelation > 1.5 million
Zelda > 1 million
Skyrim > 1 million
Halo > 1 million
Uncharted > 1 million
Super Mario 3D land > 500k
Battlefield 3 > 500k
Arkham City > 500k
Just Dance 3 > 500k
NBA 2k12 > 500k

Is that even remotely realistic? Something has to give.

 

[Mrbob]

Look at all the people undervaluing Uncharted 3.

Game will do at least 700-800K in November. With all the promotion it is getting, combining how UC2 sold, price drop giving PS3 hardware a big boost, and how the franchise is on an upward trend I think it will go over 1 million sold for November 2011.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

If Halo and Uncharted both went over a million, we'd be looking at a November sales chart with

MW3 > 6 million
AC Revelation > 1.5 million
Zelda > 1 million
Skyrim > 1 million
Halo > 1 million
Uncharted > 1 million
Super Mario 3D land > 500k
Battlefield 3 > 500k
Arkham City > 500k
Just Dance 3 > 500k
NBA 2k12 > 500k

Is that even remotely realistic? Something has to give.

That´s way too low.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Look at all the people undervaluing Uncharted 3.

Game will do at least 700-800K in November. With all the promotion it is getting, combining how UC2 sold, and how the franchise is on an upward trend I think it will go over 1 million sold for November 2011.

I'm not devaluing it. Sony is either really confident in the game or they're completely clueless. I can't imagine Microsoft releasing a new Gears game or a new Halo in a month that is packed like November is. By comparison, Uncharted will LOOK devalued. Especially because of the way NPD does things now.

 

[Mrbob]

I'm not devaluing it. Sony is either really confident in the game or they're completely clueless. I can't imagine Microsoft releasing a new Gears game or a new Halo in a month that is packed like November is. By comparison, Uncharted will LOOK devalued. Especially because of the way NPD does things now.

What does Halo have to do with UC3? Different platform. Look at the hardware sales. PS3 is getting a boost and 360 is staying at a high level. Seems like they aren't cutting into each other right now hardware wise.

Controversial conclusion:

Spoiler

Wii U might be in trouble

 

[ThisWreckage]

It's obvious that Sony was expecting Twisted Metal to launch in October and once it was delayed they were forced to leave Uncharted 3 in November.

 

[Mrbob]

They were forced to release arguably their most important IP (besides GT) in the busiest two months of the year?

 

[Lord Error]

Do we know how much Ico+SotC collection sold?

I'm not devaluing it. Sony is either really confident in the game or they're completely clueless. I can't imagine Microsoft releasing a new Gears game or a new Halo in a month that is packed like November is. By comparison, Uncharted will LOOK devalued. Especially because of the way NPD does things now.

It could absolutely happen that UC3 released in 2nd half of October would chart higher on NPD for October, but sell less than UC3 released early in November, despite appearing lower on the november chart. What would you rather have if were developing it? I think first month sales numbers are more important than what spot game takes on the chart.

 

[Luckyman]

If Rage does 500k combined on PS3/360 first month that´s a success. Still they lose money for 5 years of development

 

[walking fiend]

Two main reasons for low sales of a lot of mid-range game are neglecting the 90m installed base of the Wii, and also putting all the money in few genre/theme baskets. Does someone have that picture of bald gunners?

Mario will do well in November (and probably for the next 5+ years), but it won't surprise me if it doesn't chart in the top 10. There's a lot of stuff coming out in November, and the 3DS's limited user base at this time might just not make it possible to get the numbers to chart.

These are the games that I think will (or at least may) sell more than 3D Land

Just Dance (leg)
U3 (I believe it will be added for November, 31 Oct release)
BF3 (leg)
MW3
Skyrim
Zelda SS
AC Revelations
Halo Anniversary

Since there are 8, it still leaves 2 spot of 3D Land.

 

[Mpl90]

Do we know how much Ico+SotC collection sold?

92k

 

[ThisWreckage]

92k

If that's true, Sony has to be happier with the Team Ico numbers than the Resistance 3 numbers.

 

[Cornbread78]

• During the month of September, Xbox 360 held six of the top ten console game titles including: “Gears of War 3,” “Madden NFL 12,” “Dead Island,” “FIFA Soccer 12,” “NHL 12” and “Deus EX: Human Revolution.” (Source: NPD Group, September 2011)

I had to laugh at this one….


PS3 owns 9 of the 10 top ten plans.
360 also owns 9/10 top titles, each had 1 exclusive there… just a funny statement from their PR dept.….


Software (New physical retail only, across all platforms including PC)
01. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)** Electronic Arts
02. Gears of War 3 (360)** Microsoft (Corp)
03. Dead Island (360, PS3, PC) Deep Silver
04. FIFA Soccer 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS) Electronic Arts
05. NHL 12 (360, PS3) Electronic Arts
06. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (360, PS3, PC)** Square Enix Inc
07. Resistance 3 (PS3) Sony (Corp)
08. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, NDS, 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC) LucasArts
09. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (360, PS3, PC) THQ

Glad Resistance 3 flopped,it was a horrible game.

.

I'm sorry I had to wait until this morning to see this comment….

#7 is a flop huh? Take the blinders off. The game is excellent and they keep updating it to make it even better. Not crap at all, I can give you a long list of FPS games it's better than....

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

That´s way too low.

AAA FPS don't really do much better than that their second month.

Reach sold 3.3 million in its debut, then 300k in its second month.

Last november, only 2 individual skus went over 1 million, and only 5 combined skus went over 500k.

COD is going to be even bigger than last year, and I imagine Madden, Assassin's Creed, Just Dance, and NBA 2k will be as well. The top 20 will be even more lopsided toward the top titles, not less. CoD might do 9 million alone. I think a lot of people are going to be let down by another Activision Christmas, I see Uncharted, Super Mario 3D, and Halo debuting in the 400k range, the market simply isn't big enough to support that many big sellers.

 

[Dabanton]

#7 is a flop huh? Take the blinders off. The game is excellent and they keep updating it to make it even better. Not crap at all, I can give you a long list of FPS games it's better than....

I would love to see this list.

 

[walking fiend]

#7 doesn't mean anything, so doesn't #1 or #3; <180K does though.

COD is going to be even bigger than last year

it won't, though BF3+MW3 will.

 

[KKRT00]

I honestly didn't realize that Sony/MS/Nintendo counted them toward the overall sales of a game when its included as a perk to buy their console. No disrespect to Uncharted or any other game bundled but that seems kinda cheap to inflate sales for that particulat title.

Dunno, i've bought GT 5: Prologue PS3 bundle, because of GT5.

 

[Kagari]

Don't be surprised if Uncharted 3 sales around the same in its first month as Uncharted 2 did, but fails to show up in the top ten. That month is absolutely packed as far as software goes. In the end, Uncharted 3 will move more copies than Uncharted 2, but the first couple of months are going to be rough for that game. It really should have launched in October.

UC3 will be fine if it can move more than 1.4 million.

 

[Lord Error]

92k

Thanks! That's not bad at all. Probably better than 1st year Ico PS2 sales in NA actually... Considering that NA is likely the lower selling market for this collection compared to EU, they must be pretty damn happy with how it's doing.

 

[Deadbeat]

I would love to see this list.

I would too.

 

[Cornbread78]

I would love to see this list.

Off the top of my head in just a couple mins..

World ar War
Resistance 2
Eat Lead
MW2
Crysis 2
Halo2
Metal of Honor

Those of which I've played I'll list more once I think about it....

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

I had to laugh at this one….


PS3 owns 9 of the 10 top ten plans.
360 also owns 9/10 top titles, each had 1 exclusive there… just a funny statement from their PR dept.….
.

well..
they are referring to the single sku top ten ( gears3 is n.1 as single sku and Microsoft have 6 out 10 games on such chart)

 

[charsace]

Great to see Jensen prosper. Deus Ex 4 please!