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[params7]

If voter turnout is any indicator of enthusiasm, this year's GOP voters are way, way more pumped than 2012 voters were. Democrats, meanwhile? Their excitement seems to have dimmed since 2008.

Last night, more than 8.5 million Republicans turned out to vote in the 11 GOP Super Tuesday states that reported results. That suggests far more enthusiasm than the last time Republicans picked a nominee. In those same 11 states in 2012, turnout totaled only around 4.7 million.

That makes this year's turnout in those 11 states 81 percent higher than four years ago.

Contrast that with the Democrats. In the Dems' 11 states reporting results from last night, turnout totaled only around 5.9 million — that's around 2.6 million fewer people than came out in those states 2008, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in the middle of what would would be a long, hard-fought race.

The results reflect what many are calling an "enthusiasm gap" between Republican and Democratic voters. Republicans, eager to remove Democrats from the White House, are looking to outsiders like Donald Trump to change Washington. Last night's exit polls showed that the overwhelming majority of Republican voters are "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the federal government. Democrats, meanwhile, are more content with the way things are.

Well probably because they were in red states - still there's more people coming out for Red and less Blue compared to previous election years.

Gaf - Time to rally the crowd with some enthusiasm or it will be too easy for Lord Drumpf.

Source: http://www.npr.org/2016/03/02/468918065/republican-super-tuesday-turnout

 

[BoboBrazil]

It's all Trump. Makes it ridiculous that the republican party won't get behind him.

 

[ZealousD]

These turnout numbers are not necessary indicative of any future success in the general, considering what's going on in the Republican party right now. We're looking at a possible major party shift so you're seeing the different factions within the party fight here, and they won't necessarily play nice together once a nominee is chosen. Many of these folks will stay home if Trump is picked, others will stay home if he isn't.

Not that I think Democrats should sleep on the job or anything.

 

[Davidion]

This feels like what happens when liberals spend more time mocking and fanning an opponent's spectacle without learning why said spectacle exists.

 

[Nuova]

Nothing too strange. After 8yrs of a Democratic President, Republicans are bound to come out in numbers this election to change that. The reverse applies as well.

 

[MartyStu]

These turnout numbers are not necessary indicative of any future success in the general, considering what's going on in the Republican party right now. We're looking at a possible major party shift so you're seeing the different factions within the party fight here, and they won't necessarily play nice together once a nominee is chosen.

Not that I think Democrats should sleep on the job or anything.

All true.

Another good thing to remember is that the general elections are a very different ballgame.

People show up to those.

 

[FTF]

Dems better turn the hell up come November.

 

[eBay Huckster]

beep boop, Primary Turnout Historically Ain't Shit

 

[RobotHaus]

I'm curious, how many people who typically vote Democrat are registered as Independent?

I know a good amount of people who don't want to be tied to a party, but generally favor the views of the Democratic party.

Even then, people should still be going out to vote. It'd be stupid not to.

 

[gutter_trash]

it's natural for turnouts to be higher for the opposing party's primaries when an incumbent is completing a 2nd term

2008, it was the same story but from the other party

anyway, the Republican voters are not united, they are split in three.
1) the lock-step establishment voters
2) the crazy religious nut jobs
3) the angry anti-establishment mob who don't care about party orthodoxy

 

[GorillaJu]

That's actually frightening. =\

 

[DarkKyo]

We are soooo fuucckkkeddd

 

[Officerrob]

Trump is turning out voters to vote for and against him

 

[BoboBrazil]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

 

[Timedog]

This is scary but Trump needs independents.

 

[Gattsu25]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

I'm not so sure about that.

I guess I'm a pessimist when it comes to this election.

 

[gutter_trash]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

this this this!

 

[BoboBrazil]

I'm not so sure about that.

I guess I'm a pessimist when it comes to this election.

He won't get the black or hispanic vote and people will actively turn out to the polls to make sure he loses. He's the main thing that can energize the democratic base to vote this year.

 

[Acerac]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

With these numbers? I'm not sure he's a guaranteed anything.

 

[Regiruler]

I would imagine so. Trump support and trump hateed are very strong.

 

[Omadahl]

If Trump ends up as the candidate you had better believe people will show up to vote against him in droves.

 

[pgtl_10]

Democrats need a celebrity to run.

 

[Mrbob]

He won't get the black or hispanic vote and people will actively turn out to the polls to make sure he loses. He's the main thing that can energize the democratic base to vote this year.

Well they aren't energized to vote right now. I'm skeptical. Be careful what you wish for. The 35% talking point is a bit disingenuous to me since Republicans are getting a bunch more votes. The Trump thing was funny at first but now it is getting a bit scary.

 

[Movement]

That's great and all but not indicative in any way of the general. There's many more variables to add in, including independent voters who can't vote in some primaries.

 

[params7]

it's natural for turnouts to be higher for the opposing party's primaries when an incumbent is completing a 2nd term

2008, it was the same story but from the other party

anyway, the Republican voters are not united, they are split in three.
1) the lock-step establishment voters
2) the crazy religious nut jobs
3) the angry anti-establishment mob who don't care about party orthodoxy

Yeah, I think Trump is still far away from getting the nomination. He is going to be fighting a war with GoP and Mitt Romney soon as the face of anti-Trump coalition and the risk of brokered convention is very real.

 

[SolarPowered]

Democrats need a celebrity to run.

Larry David is already running.

 

[Movement]

Democrats need a celebrity to run.

Foo Fighters announcement tomorrow, coincidence? President Fighters.

 

[studyguy]

That's great and all but not indicative in any way of the general. There's many more variables to add in, including independent voters who can't vote in some primaries.

Primary rules are all kind of stupid shit.
Caucuses are legit dumb and make it impossible to expect a turnout for anyone who isn't old as shit and has time on their hands. Some states require you register MONTHS ahead to vote in the primary. Can't vote unless you're a specific party.

At the very least primaries in all states should be open completely and a simple ballot. None of this other fuckery on both sides.

 

[Movement]

Primary rules are all kind of stupid shit.
Caucuses are legit dumb and make it impossible to expect a turnout for anyone who isn't old as shit and has time on their hands. Some states require you register MONTHS ahead to vote in the primary. Can't vote unless you're a specific party.

At the very least primaries in all states should be open completely and a simple ballot. None of this other fuckery on both sides.

Open primaries, automatic registration, and a $250 stipend to contribute to the candidate of choice.

If only.

 

[noshten]

If Trump ends up as the candidate you had better believe people will show up to vote against him in droves.

I used to think like this but honestly, at this point I don't know. People keep talking about this circus in the Republican field - but it's a circus. This might be a tactic for them to win - make everyone underestimate them up until election, hell even prop up a 3rd party run of an Establishment that the majority of people dislike/hate/is a looser. Energize the pro-Trump crowd and on the day before election that third party candidate concedes, citing the need for everyone to unite under Trump for otherwise those socialists on the left will take things over.
This whole process lures Democrats in a false sense of security as polls are constantly showing Trump in the 30% range nation wide.

Bam Trump elected with under 52% of the Nation going out to vote.

 

[HK-47]

This feels like what happens when liberals spend more time mocking and fanning an opponent's spectacle without learning why said spectacle exists.

It certainly feels dangerously arrogant.

 

[titiklabingapat]

The turnout at the primary is not an indication of the turn out in the general election. Please remember that even with the high turnout in the states that already voted, this is still only 10% of the actual general election voters in those states. Most of thepeople voting are the hardcore of the hardcore GOP voters, even with the Trump media domination.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Dems better turn the hell up come November.

Very much this.

 

[Tesseract]

If Trump brokers a deal among the leaders, you better get ready for 1000 years of darkness

 

[Log4Girlz]

George Clooney needs to be the Democrat Reagan.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

Just like he was laughed off when first announcing his candidacy.

I'm in Michigan. We have open primaries next week. I'm voting for Cruz because he seems the most beatable (and most likely to be nominated if not Trump).

 

[Stumpokapow]

mix of enthusiasm difference + number of competitors (low competitor counts bring lower turnouts versus higher competitor counts ceteris paribus)

 

[BoboBrazil]

Just like he was laughed off when first announcing his candidacy.

I'm in Michigan. We have open primaries next week. I'm voting for Cruz because he seems the most beatable (and most likely to be nominated if not Trump).

Cruz is less beatable than Trump imo. He's a snake and will definitely play dirty in the general against Hillary and fool a bunch of people. If a republican will win I'd rather it be Trump anyway, because atleast the guy will negotiate and leans further left on social issues like LGBT and planned parenthood.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

The more exposure Trump gets, the more legitimate his batshit crazy views and the views of his supporters become in the eyes of the masses. Your suggstion is poisonous to this country's future.

 

[BowieZ]

How many of the states allowed same-day registration or the ability to vote in either race?

I assume where possible people tended to prefer influencing Trump's chances rather than the comparatively amicable Democratic side.

If anything, Sanders' reluctance to harshly criticise Clinton was his downfall.

 

[BoboBrazil]

The more exposure Trump gets, the more legitimate his batshit crazy views and the views of his supporters become in the eyes of the masses. Your suggstion is poisonous to this country's future.

No, it wrecks the republican party and they have to rebuild into something better. It would also cost them down ticket senate races in November and give Hillary the chance to possibly nominate 3 left leaning supreme court judges that get that position for life.

 

[Abounder]

Republicans 'enthusiasm gap' not only includes a massive primary turnout - they are also dominating media metrics, and control more state and national offices. That momentum feels like the independent voter is going for the red team; Democrats need to get the young/Obama voters to turnout for a White House 3-peat. Still Hillary's to lose but perhaps shaping up to be a close and very dirty race!

 

[bachikarn]

population dynamics still favors democrats, but i guess we will see if their normal supports are too apathetic this year

 

[Plasticine]

No, it wrecks the republican party and they have to rebuild into something better. It would also cost them down ticket senate races in November and give Hillary the chance to possibly nominate 3 left leaning supreme court judges that get that position for life.

This is the modern Republican Party. They've had to rebuild into something better for years now. Instead they keep doubling down on crazy. It will only get worse when Hillary treats Trump like he was Vince Foster. Four years of Hillary as President will only make Republicans even more deranged.

 

[BoboBrazil]

This is the modern Republican Party. They've had to rebuild into something better for years now. Instead they keep doubling down on crazy. It will only get worse when Hillary treats Trump like he was Vince Foster. Four years of Hillary as President will only make Republicans even more deranged.

That just keeps splintering them into smaller and smaller groups and the country keeps moving further left. It's a win.

 

[EatinOlives]

Dems better turn the hell up come November.

This.

Don't fuck this up, Dems.

 

[- J - D -]

That makes this year's turnout in those 11 states 81 percent higher than four years ago.

Well let's look at the republican voter choices this time for years ago --

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum.

Not the most exciting lineup. Well, not in the way this year's gallery is. Turns out people like a street brawl, and those guys weren't bringing the fight the way 2016's candidates are.

 

[besada]

It's already been pointed out that the primaries are not equal in intensity and that primary turn out isn't actually indicative of general election turnout.

I'm not worried anyway. The Republicans are so fractured it seems unlikely they'll be able to put things back together, especially behind the most likely candidate. It's going to take everything they have to just keep the party from imploding. You've got Republican mega financiers saying they'll spend anything to defeat Trump, Republican party members suggesting they'll vote outside the party if Trump is the candidate, and all sorts of chatter about third party runs, etc. That's a lot of worms to try and cram back in by November. And if the candidate is Trump, the Republicans get a guy who can't be controlled, who's largely gone unvetted by the Republicans, and the Democratic oppo research team is going to hit him like a Mack truck. Granted, there's plenty of material in the other direction, but it's presumably stuff we've been bored about for ages.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

If Trump were to lose, I'd be interested to see who where his supporters go.

In 2020 we could have a whole new batch of jerk offs from the business community.

 

[Prologue]

He's the republican Obama in terms of bringing out those high turn outs. I'm concerned about the democratic turn out. The democratic and republican vote from 08 basically switched. Democratic turn out was practically halved this time around.


He's going to win if it keeps being consistent.