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Official 2011 MLB Thread v.2: The Mets are terrible.
- Thread starter CygnusXS
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CajoleJuice
Member
Justin Upton was "available" before the season.eznark said:
Edit: I say this just in response to your second paragraph. The fact that he wasn't traded is irrelevant. If Upton were actually traded, would you have said the D-backs gave up on him for no good reason, irrespective of the haul they got?
Sanjuro Tsubaki said:
I know this is a hard idea for someone that supports a team that hands out shitty multi-year contracts like teams hand out bobbleheads on holidays. But, the Indians are a franchise that venerates money and more importantly, the amount of value you can receive with that money spent.
5.5 millions/yr to get a potential #1 starter (but more likely a 2 or 3) in the window that your team is competing (another concept that may be foreign to you) is invaluable. It has more value than possessing the contract of a young pitcher that COULD mature into what Ubaldo is right now during a window that you are not competitive.
See also: TINSTAAPP
See also: Adam Miller
See also: Any Yankee fan that wanted to hold onto Kennedy, Joba and Hughes because they were 'da futoore' instead of getting help in 2006/2007.
Finally, the only REAL prospect the Indians gave up was Pom. Alex White could be okay, but could also have serious problems with his finger. He has zero "plus pitches", just has a variety of them that he can command. Gardner has a vicious sinker and that is it. McBride is a 26 year old in AA.
You don't need to talk down to me, I'm not foolish enough to believe Boston = Cleveland. I'm on the side believing his value is just going to drop. I don't think he is going to stay a great pitcher and one of the reasons I facepalmed every time I heard blowhards on the local radio saying how bad we need him.
He reminds me physically like Pedro did. The only question is he even 40% the competitor that Pedro was. Watching Pedro go from complete dominance to having to retool his game and become more of a finesse pitcher was really a fun thing to watch if that makes any sense. I'm not sure Ubaldo can do this in the same manner. So you went from trading prospects for a proven guy under your belt for a couple years to potentially a pet project.
He reminds me physically like Pedro did. The only question is he even 40% the competitor that Pedro was. Watching Pedro go from complete dominance to having to retool his game and become more of a finesse pitcher was really a fun thing to watch if that makes any sense. I'm not sure Ubaldo can do this in the same manner. So you went from trading prospects for a proven guy under your belt for a couple years to potentially a pet project.
CajoleJuice
Member
Ubaldo xFIP
2009: 3.59
2010: 3.60
2011: 3.58
SIERA:
2009: 3.77
2010: 3.68
2011: 3.56
2009: 3.59
2010: 3.60
2011: 3.58
SIERA:
2009: 3.77
2010: 3.68
2011: 3.56
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
CajoleJuice said:
And for one of the best contracts in all of baseball.
Honestly the Indians won the deal. There are a ton of questions right now regarding White and his health. Drew Pomeranz is the only "sure thing", and he's far from it.
I love the move for the Indians simply for the fact that even if they suck the rest of this season and suck all of next season they will be able to move Ubaldo for a decent package down the road almost equal to what they gave up. Of course assuming his arm doesn't fall off or he doesn't devolve into John Lackey.
Sanjuro Tsubaki said:
I was only talking down to you because you were saying foolish things. It seemed to me you were viewing Ubaldo's value through the prism of a Red Sox fan and I was right.
Again this is foolish talk. Ubaldo is 27 years old. He hasn't even hit his prime yet. Pedro didn't have to 'retool' until he was well into his 30's. Ubaldo isn't Dontrelle Willis.
The concerns you listed are the concerns that a big market team will have to weigh in 2014 when Ubaldo (could) be commanding a 6 yr. / 100 million dollar contract in free agency. So, then a team like the Cubs, the Mets or the Angels take on the risk. The Indians don't play that game.
You are talking out of your ass as much as I am. He hasn't pitched a game yet, but you seem to forget that. Typical Cleveland fan. Oh...I used a stereotype, how clever. You don't need to be rude when we are just shooting the shit about the future, none of us know what will happen. I hope he pitches fantastic and works out great for your team.
Pedro was a freak with his body size. Age may or may not come into play.
Pedro was a freak with his body size. Age may or may not come into play.
Talking out of your ass would be just giving some random comments that have no basis in facts or historical precedent or creating false equivalencies (like you did with your Ubaldo/Pedro comp).
I gave you a historical pattern of how prospect pitchers pan out, I explained the indeterminable value a contract like Ubaldo represents to a (contending) small-market club, a previous historical anecdote in the Indians organization of a 'sure thing' that didn't pan out and a brief synopsis of all the Indians prospects and what difficulties they may have. Then Cajole provided you with some stats to show Ubaldo's performance in the past three years. It's called analysis. It's what people do to predict the future.
All that being said, it's still a gamble. One that could blow up in the Indians face and become one of those milestone trades that people look back and laugh at. But, given the facts, it seems like the odds are in the Indians favor on this one.
--- /// ---
Also, EVERY healthy baseball player's prime is between the ages of 27-31. That's just a fact and not dependent of what 'body type' you may possess. That's why small market team's try to tie up players through their arbitration years and let the 30 year old stars move onto big market teams.
Sorry, if I seem harsh. I usually talk baseball over at letsgotribe and it's a motherfucker to express your opinion and not come correct.
--- /// ---
I gave you a historical pattern of how prospect pitchers pan out, I explained the indeterminable value a contract like Ubaldo represents to a (contending) small-market club, a previous historical anecdote in the Indians organization of a 'sure thing' that didn't pan out and a brief synopsis of all the Indians prospects and what difficulties they may have. Then Cajole provided you with some stats to show Ubaldo's performance in the past three years. It's called analysis. It's what people do to predict the future.
All that being said, it's still a gamble. One that could blow up in the Indians face and become one of those milestone trades that people look back and laugh at. But, given the facts, it seems like the odds are in the Indians favor on this one.
--- /// ---
Also, EVERY healthy baseball player's prime is between the ages of 27-31. That's just a fact and not dependent of what 'body type' you may possess. That's why small market team's try to tie up players through their arbitration years and let the 30 year old stars move onto big market teams.
Sorry, if I seem harsh. I usually talk baseball over at letsgotribe and it's a motherfucker to express your opinion and not come correct.
--- /// ---
Mr. Enigma
Member
Braves lineup:
1. Bourn - CF
2. Prado - 3B
3. Freeman - 1B
4. Uggla - 2B
5. Heyward - RF
6. Ross - C
7. Gonzalez - SS
8. Hudson - P
9. Constanza - LF
1. Bourn - CF
2. Prado - 3B
3. Freeman - 1B
4. Uggla - 2B
5. Heyward - RF
6. Ross - C
7. Gonzalez - SS
8. Hudson - P
9. Constanza - LF
Yea, I had to do a double take on that last name. I thought that guy was still in our farm system. He's fun to watch, but probably not an mlb player.
I don't blame you. This is what I would say too, if I were horribly mutilated in a discussion.
Don't get mad at me. Before, you were probably indifferent to the career of Ubaldo Jimenez. Now, I have given you reason to care.
Sanjuro Tsubaki said:
I don't blame you. This is what I would say too, if I were horribly mutilated in a discussion.
Don't get mad at me. Before, you were probably indifferent to the career of Ubaldo Jimenez. Now, I have given you reason to care.
Mr. Enigma
Member
ToxicAdam said:
They're just riding his bat until it goes cold, like Willie Harris in 2007. With the state of the offense, McCann on the DL, and Chipper not being able to decide if he can play or not, I don't blame them.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
He's pretty much dead on with his comment regarding Peak Years.
The average for a peak is 26.5 for hitters and basically the same for pitchers.
TangoTiger has done a ton of work on this, here's one quick read for pitchers - http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/when_do_pitchers_peak/
The peak for hitters is longer than the peak for pitchers. A pitcher at 31 is much further past his peak than a batter at age 31.
But obviously there's a ton of variables regarding this, such as the fact that most baseball players never make it to age 31 in the first place.
The average for a peak is 26.5 for hitters and basically the same for pitchers.
TangoTiger has done a ton of work on this, here's one quick read for pitchers - http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/when_do_pitchers_peak/
The peak for hitters is longer than the peak for pitchers. A pitcher at 31 is much further past his peak than a batter at age 31.
But obviously there's a ton of variables regarding this, such as the fact that most baseball players never make it to age 31 in the first place.
I get what you guys mean. You are talking about a target average, but there are still plenty of guys who break down early in their careers and veteran pitchers still effective going towards their 40s. Ideally yes...those are the years you look for the maximum production for your buck.
I'm just not going to be belittled when we are talking about a pitcher who hasn't pitched a game yet for his new team, in the AL, and with questions about his velocity.
I'm just not going to be belittled when we are talking about a pitcher who hasn't pitched a game yet for his new team, in the AL, and with questions about his velocity.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Oh don't get me wrong it's just a peak average.
There are guys who will have peaks well into their late 30's (juicers!) and there are guys who will just fall off a cliff before they even hit 30 like Carl Crawford.
Obviously the Rockies were worried that he's not only past his peak but that the fall from it will be pretty rapid. A lot of the worries are based on the dip in velocity this year.
The statistics say he's been the same guy, actually slightly better this year than in previous season. The peripherals (his K/BB/HR rates are still just as solid as they've ever been for him) are still the same. It's the raw stuff in of itself that has declined this season. The Rockies were making the bet that the package they got from the Indians would be the highest they could ever get for him while the Indians are making the bet that they will receive more value from the 2.5 / 3.5 years they get out of Ubaldo than they would have from the prospects they gave up.
I'm of the belief the Indians win this trade in the end because I don't think the drop in velocity is that huge of a deal and that he'll maintain some resemblance of his current self during his time on the Indians. Maybe the worries about the health of his shoulder are legit, maybe not. They wouldn't have traded him now though if they weren't worried about it. But I can see the Rockies reasoning as well, the old trade him a year too soon rather than a year too late belief.
It's definitely one of the more interesting trades in recent MLB history simply because 27 year old starting pitchers who put up 3 straight years of 200+ innings pitched of ~3.60 xFIP on a really really team friendly long-term contract don't exactly get traded very often.
There are guys who will have peaks well into their late 30's (juicers!) and there are guys who will just fall off a cliff before they even hit 30 like Carl Crawford.
Obviously the Rockies were worried that he's not only past his peak but that the fall from it will be pretty rapid. A lot of the worries are based on the dip in velocity this year.
The statistics say he's been the same guy, actually slightly better this year than in previous season. The peripherals (his K/BB/HR rates are still just as solid as they've ever been for him) are still the same. It's the raw stuff in of itself that has declined this season. The Rockies were making the bet that the package they got from the Indians would be the highest they could ever get for him while the Indians are making the bet that they will receive more value from the 2.5 / 3.5 years they get out of Ubaldo than they would have from the prospects they gave up.
I'm of the belief the Indians win this trade in the end because I don't think the drop in velocity is that huge of a deal and that he'll maintain some resemblance of his current self during his time on the Indians. Maybe the worries about the health of his shoulder are legit, maybe not. They wouldn't have traded him now though if they weren't worried about it. But I can see the Rockies reasoning as well, the old trade him a year too soon rather than a year too late belief.
It's definitely one of the more interesting trades in recent MLB history simply because 27 year old starting pitchers who put up 3 straight years of 200+ innings pitched of ~3.60 xFIP on a really really team friendly long-term contract don't exactly get traded very often.
The Frankman
Banned
Mets lineup:
1. Reyes - SS
2. Turner - 2B
3. Murphy - 1B
4. Wright - 3B
5. Pagan - CF
6. Bay - LF
7. Duda - RF
8. Thole - C
9. Dickey - RHP
Pretty much have to sweep or get very lucky next week.
1. Reyes - SS
2. Turner - 2B
3. Murphy - 1B
4. Wright - 3B
5. Pagan - CF
6. Bay - LF
7. Duda - RF
8. Thole - C
9. Dickey - RHP
Pretty much have to sweep or get very lucky next week.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
The Frankman said:
Dude the season is over. Unless we go biblical on the Braves and beat them in all 9 games we have against them to give ourselves a shot.
But yeah it's over.
The Frankman
Banned
sounds like a plan!darkside31337 said:
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Brewers will sweep the Yankees when it counts.
In November. Or late October. Whenever the WS is.
In November. Or late October. Whenever the WS is.
The Frankman
Banned
sweet
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
The Frankman said:
I take it you bought it at 90% clearance?
The Frankman
Banned
I didn't buy anything. That image comes courtesy of Michael Baron. The jersey is nice, I'd be in favor of a blue alternative vs. the black one.
I don't know how I feel about the Mets pinstripes. Sometimes I think they look really slick, other times they just look cheesy. Still not a fan of their black jerseys though. I think if they did something a little bit more old-timey for an alternative it would look really nice. I love Cleveland's from the other night.
I wish I could be watching the game. :/
I wish I could be watching the game. :/
The Frankman
Banned
Man Mets first two batters destroyed the balls for outs...
Turner serves one for a single. Mets have hit Hudson well this year.
Turner serves one for a single. Mets have hit Hudson well this year.
The Frankman
Banned
Goddamn David Wright! 2-out RBI double. David Wright gets his 1st hit vs. the Braves this year! Safe at second!
Safe and secure...
Safe and secure...
CajoleJuice
Member
Yeah, they are really nice jerseys.Windu said:
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