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Official Jan 2008 NPD Thread - HW Shortages + Spectacular SW

mildewproduction

Junior Member
The Faceless Master said:
so basically, if the 360 wins, you get a free bluray player, and if the PS3 wins, you get rid of a dying console?

what's in it for them?

My console just RROD recently, so the 360 should work for another 5 months or so.

lamalmalmalmalamlmalamlamlamalm
 
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - ~80K

PS3 UNCHARTED - ~55K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - ~85K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - ~50K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K

this is awesome, by the way.

Thanks for helping those of us who can't read the entire thread.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - 65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - 81K

PS3 UNCHARTED - 54K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - 83K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - 52K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K
Why do you round for games sonycowboy has given official numbers for?
 
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - ~80K

PS3 UNCHARTED - ~55K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - ~85K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - ~50K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K

Very interesting. Thanks. Not so bad for Corruption after all.
 
Now the software sales just need to catch up on the PS3.

and just hardware sales alone for Sony are really impressive. PSP, PS2, and PS3 all got good numbers.
 
Liabe Brave said:
The high attach rates of pre-PS3/Wii games like Dead Rising and Lost Planet are part of the reason why the "360 is a software monster!" meme exists. When in fact, as you've pointed out several times, attach rates are simply higher earlier on when owners are more likely to be enthusiasts (and more eager for new experiences). PS3's higher attach rates for games like CoD 4, Assassin's Creed, and Burnout Paradise are definitely not evidence that PS3 is doing better than 360. They are, however, evidence that it's likely following the same sales curve as 360, which I bet some posters would find surprising (but is only to be expected).

Also, sorry about the confusion with Botticus and iSuppli; I stand corrected. It seems they truly are insane, and not just deluded.

I think it comes more from the exclusive sales on both consoles. While MS big exclusives really flourished this year(sales wise), PS3's exclusives bombed for the most part. I guess many look at third party sales as a wash. There is also the fact that anyone who buys a 360 is buying it for games whereas the PS3 can be solely bought for a blu-ray player. I think the PS3 will pass the 360 eventually but I doubt it will ever match it's attach rate.
 

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
Liabe Brave said:
Also, sorry about the confusion with Botticus and iSuppli; I stand corrected. It seems they truly are insane, and not just deluded.

Just in case you're not reading the iSuppli thread, I think we all understand how confusing where that table came from was. It wasn't including in other articles, because they probably saw it before they posted and knew that table destroyed all credibility. You know who should apologize, bluheim. Not just for that wrong attack, but he constantly speaks when he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.
 

Chumly

Member
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - ~80K

PS3 UNCHARTED - ~55K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - ~85K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - ~50K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K
Awesome thanks

You should put this in there also

$159M 360, $131M Wii, $80M PS3.

Total software sales $$$$ from sonycowboy
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - ~80K

PS3 UNCHARTED - ~55K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - ~85K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - ~50K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K

Obviously someone didn't get the memo that third party games don't sell on the Wii.
 

kathode

Member
MassiveAttack said:
bluraykill.gif

AWESOME gif. Anyone have the original?
 
S

Shepherd

Unconfirmed Member
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...


January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

NDS ADVANCE WARS DAYS OF RUIN - ~80K

PS3 UNCHARTED - ~55K
PS3 BURNOUT PARADISE - ~85K

360 KINDGOM UNDER FIRE - ~50K


Rough LTDs:

WII WII PLAY W/ REMOTE - ~4.4 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY - ~2.7 million
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~1.5 million
WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~655K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION - ~625K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~300K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4 - ~1.1 million
PS3 UNCHARTED - ~380K

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE - ~3.3 million
360 ROCK BAND - ~960K

Also Microsoft stated that Halo 3 sold 127k.
 

d+pad

Member
Raw64life said:
Everything not listed in the OP so far...

January 08:

WII CARNIVAL GAMES - ~80K
WII NO MORE HEROES - ~65K
WII RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES - ~30K

No word on how Endless Ocean sold? I hope it didn't sell less than 30K :(
 

Shig

Strap on your hooker ...
The Faceless Master said:
what about writing it off because of open world, no retry and no crash mode?
Attempt to find solace in other closed-minded people that empathize with your retarded decision to write off a game without really playing it, I guess?

Not to say those aren't noteworthy issues but sometimes games are greater than the sum of their parts. I've had 25 great hours with Burnout Paradise; I've only done the showtime mode a few times, the map is still so populated with unfinished challenges that the restart thing is hardly an issue, and the open world is very well designed and memorizable.
 
MWS Natural said:
I think it comes more from the exclusive sales on both consoles. While MS big exclusives really flourished this year(sales wise), PS3's exclusives bombed for the most part. I guess many look at third party sales as a wash. There is also the fact that anyone who buys a 360 is buying it for games whereas the PS3 can be solely bought for a blu-ray player. I think the PS3 will pass the 360 eventually but I doubt it will ever match it's attach rate.

No one is buying for Blu-ray alone yet, as PS3's tie ratio continued to rise during January. Given that standalone players are now lower in price, I don't expect to see a huge movement here in the future either. You're right that PS3 will probably never catch up to the 360's tie ratio, due to Halo 3 (alone representing a full half-point of the 360's tie ratio!) and the year headstart, but all signs indicate it's on close to the same path. If Sony's 2008 exclusives do as well as they hope, the PS3 will be matching the growth curve--though not the absolute numbers--of the "OMG software monster!" 360, which I bet would sound unlikely to a bunch of folks who think Microsoft's achievements in this area are untouchable. They're being slightly mislead by the early-life distortion of tie ratio.
 
More info courtesy SonyCowboy from the software thread:


[360 Burnout Paradise] 144.1K
[360 Call of Duty 4] 330.9K
[360 Rock Band] 183.8K
[WII Guitar Hero III] 239.6K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 172K
[360 Kingdom Under Fire: CoD] = 52K
[NDS Advance Wars: DoR] = 81K
[PS3 Burnout Paradise] = 83K
[PS3 Uncharted] = 54K
[WII No More Heroes] = 65K

BTW . . . I WON THE SOFTWARE ESTIMATION CONTEST! w00t! :D

Edit: Eh . . . looks like you've got it all listed there already.
 

Zerachiel

Member
It's true that comparisons between 360 and PS3 numbers are not very telling for this period because of the hardware shortages. However, in absolute terms, the PS3 is still doing far better than we had previous reason to believe. 250k+ in a non-holiday month is great numbers, about what 360 was selling last year, and leagues better than the sub-100k showings we were seeing last year. I guess the price cut and software lineup did something?
 

JMPovoa

Member
Zerachiel said:
It's true that comparisons between 360 and PS3 numbers are not very telling for this period because of the hardware shortages. However, in absolute terms, the PS3 is still doing far better than we had previous reason to believe. 250k+ in a non-holiday month is great numbers, about what 360 was selling last year, and leagues better than the sub-100k showings we were seeing last year. I guess the price cut and software lineup did something?

I think the lack of 360's might have something to do with it.
 

dabig2

Member
What a great couple days it has been for the Sony offices. Wonder if they're all getting drunk off their asses this weekend.
 

Shig

Strap on your hooker ...
I guess the price cut and software lineup did something?
Nah, I say it was mostly that there were a lot of HD media fencesitters, and the Warner deal last month shook that fence hard.
 
Liabe Brave said:
No one is buying for Blu-ray alone yet, as PS3's tie ratio continued to rise during January. Given that standalone players are now lower in price, I don't expect to see a huge movement here in the future either. You're right that PS3 will probably never catch up to the 360's tie ratio, due to Halo 3 (alone representing a full half-point of the 360's tie ratio!) and the year headstart, but all signs indicate it's on close to the same path. If Sony's 2008 exclusives do as well as they hope, the PS3 will be matching the growth curve--though not the absolute numbers--of the "OMG software monster!" 360, which I bet would sound unlikely to a bunch of folks who think Microsoft's achievements in this area are untouchable. They're being slightly mislead by the early-life distortion of tie ratio.
I am a bad example but I own around 25+ blu-ray movies and 0 PS3 games at the moment (traded in Warhawk). I'm not saying the mainstream purchases PS3 as a main blu-ray player but I do believe many use it as such more than you think. A thread was posted a few weeks backs and I was shocked to see many used PS3 as a blu-ray player more so than a gaming machine.

I don't believe 360's software sales are a "distortion" at all; I didn't even buy a 360 till after Gears and I currently own 8 games. Nearly every one on my 85+ XBL buddy list owns 5+ games. Don't underestimate the XBL community hive-mind, something PSN doesn't have going for it yet.
 

tanod

when is my burrito
Zerachiel said:
It's true that comparisons between 360 and PS3 numbers are not very telling for this period because of the hardware shortages. However, in absolute terms, the PS3 is still doing far better than we had previous reason to believe. 250k+ in a non-holiday month is great numbers, about what 360 was selling last year, and leagues better than the sub-100k showings we were seeing last year. I guess the price cut and software lineup did something?

360 had a hard time cracking 200,000 from Feb. to Aug. last year.
 
MWS Natural said:
I am a bad example but I own around 25+ blu-ray movies and 0 PS3 games at the moment (traded in Warhawk). I'm not saying the mainstream purchases PS3 as a main blu-ray player but I do believe many use it as such more than you think. A thread was posted a few weeks backs and I was shocked to see many used PS3 as a blu-ray player more so than a gaming machine.
Blu-ray is certainly an added value, and the reason I already own a PS3. No matter how many people are using that function, though, the fact remains that PS3's tie ratio went up last month; people like you that have zero games are the anomaly, not the norm.

MWS Natural said:
I don't believe 360's software sales are a "distortion" at all; I didn't even buy a 360 till after Gears and I currently own 8 games. Nearly every one on my 85+ XBL buddy list owns 5+ games. Don't underestimate the XBL community hive-mind, something PSN doesn't have going for it yet.
I don't mean "distortion" like "it's not actually that high". I mean that when a console has a small base, the tie ratio for individual games is higher given a particular level of popularity. I don't mean to take anything from Microsoft's real achievements in this area. The 360 has sold its software very well--Gears establishing a half-Halo success is awesome--and gotten to 7 tie ratio quicker than anybody. PS3 and Wii aren't nearly as far behind as some people think, though.
 

Tabris

Member
Let me give you a recap of the current scenario...

November NPD: Playstation family is outsold by the Nintendo family.
Tabris: Tide is turning.

tsunami_wave1.jpg


January NPD: Playstation family outsells the Nintendo family by more than the sales of the 360 in the month.

colbertCalledIt.jpg


Now where do we go from here? Well here is the future as I see it (i.e. playstation family rise to heaven)

outofthegamingghetto.jpg
 

DeadGzuz

Banned
Shig said:
Nah, I say it was mostly that there were a lot of HD media fencesitters, and the Warner deal last month shook that fence hard.

And the same folks say Blu-ray doesn't sell PS3s. Flip-flop depending on the thread I guess. All those movies watchers bought Paradise at a larger ratio than the achievement whores.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Zerachiel said:
It's true that comparisons between 360 and PS3 numbers are not very telling for this period because of the hardware shortages. However, in absolute terms, the PS3 is still doing far better than we had previous reason to believe. 250k+ in a non-holiday month is great numbers, about what 360 was selling last year, and leagues better than the sub-100k showings we were seeing last year. I guess the price cut and software lineup did something?

Realistically, the numbers this January don't differ much from a year ago. The only ones that are substantially different are 360 and Wii, which are both down--and both for obvious reasons. Everything else is up, but only slightly (less than 10%).

Of course, last January was the first January that the PS3 was available, which I assume is an inflationary factor; if my assumption is correct, then--without that factor present this January--the improvement is significant. The next few months should tell us much more about how the environment has changed.

As for the Wii numbers, what's the consensus on why they're so low? Is it because December was so high and they started the year with clear channels? Were consoles being redirected to Japan for Smash Bros.? Or has this not yet been discussed?
 

Jive Turkey

Unconfirmed Member
DevilWillcry said:
The thread has been like this so far:

Sony Guys: "teh empyer strikez bak!!1"
MS Guys: "nuh-uh itz teh shortagez!!11"
Nintendo Guys: "lulz"

Odds are there are going to be at least 20 more pages of this.
And this is exactly why I love Sales-Age threads.
 
Metaphoreus said:
Realistically, the numbers this January don't differ much from a year ago. The only ones that are substantially different are 360 and Wii, which are both down--and both for obvious reasons. Everything else is up, but only slightly (less than 10%).
Last year's January NPD was a week longer. PS3 is up 38% in weekly sales. That's without taking into account the post-launch boost you posited for January 2007.

Metaphoreus said:
As for the Wii numbers, what's the consensus on why they're so low? Is it because December was so high and they started the year with clear channels? Were consoles being redirected to Japan for Smash Bros.?
Almost certainly A, and definitely not B. Brawl is killing in Japan, but the hardware sales aren't as extreme. . .plus reports from Japan are that Wii is available everywhere if you want one.
 
If my region reflects the nation at large, expect equally bad Wii, DS, and 360 numbers for February. Nintendo and Microsoft are still asleep at the switch. I have to turn away dozens of people a day because these guys can't seem to send us any damn consoles.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Liabe Brave said:
Last year's January NPD was a week longer. PS3 is up 38% in weekly sales. That's without taking into account the post-launch boost you posited for January 2007.


Almost certainly A, and definitely not B. Brawl is killing in Japan, but the hardware sales aren't as extreme. . .plus reports from Japan are that Wii is available everywhere if you want one.

I forgot about that extra week in last year's reporting, so thanks for reminding me. I knew that Wii had been in pretty strong supply in Japan for a while now, but I thought that it had experienced some shortages following Wii Fit's launch (I may be making that up, as I don't frequent the MC threads; I just thought I heard it). That's why I proposed that they could have been redirecting some consoles. Of course, it's possible that they could be holding some back for the U.S. release of Brawl. I guess we'll find out.

Anywho, if I adjust my figures for the lost week this January, then, relative to last January, the consoles sold (per week):

PS3: 138% (as you noted)
360: 98%
Wii: 79%
DS: 131%
PSP: 136%

Which means that my previous estimates were retarded, and I can see why the Sony fans are exuberant.

Was the DS supply constrained in January? If not, then there seems to be a trend in which the consoles increased sales by 30-40% over last year (per week, again); a trend which 360 and Wii missed out on because of low supply. (I don't think that I need to defend the position that 360 experienced shortages in January, since it is definitely supported by anecdotal evidence and Microsoft's admission of such, and possibly supported by the fact that the 360 didn't follow that trend I noted just now.)
 

Lord Error

Insane For Sony
Rice-Eater said:
I think it did 323k last year, so it would be 377k now if that figure is true.
That's US only. Worldwide, it's anyone's guess, but someone from ND said it sold more in Europe than it did in US so far. I think it also sold maybe 60K in Japan.
 

Zerachiel

Member
To all those claiming 360 supply shortages, what would you expect it to sell without hardware shortages? Adjusting for the 5-week month, 360 sold 235k last Jan, nearly identical with this month's numbers. Granted, 360 sales have shown an increase year over year, around 20% from Dec 06 to Dec 07, adjusting for 5-week months (someone check my math on this; IIRC, Dec 06 was 5 weeks and Dec 07 was 4). So 360 sales increases by 20% to 282k, and remains very close in sales to the PS3.

I don't think we can expect such a radical drop in sales that we did last year for the PS3. For one, the drop doesn't look so steep when you take Jan's 5-week status into account, and for another, January 07 was essentially in the PS3's launch window, where demand was considerably pent up. In all, I'd expect PS3 and 360 hardware sales to run neck-and-neck, perhaps with the PS3 being behind 5-10%, even once MS has solved their supply problems. At least, until the status quo is changed, and there's either a price drop or a major exclusive release on either side.

And though it's usually considered poor form to bring this up in an NPD thread, since there's no WW sales age thread going, I have to point out that the WW hardware sales situation looks quite rosy for Sony if they're pretty close to MS in America.
 

Araex

Member
I'm just curious, do people think that the low supply of 80gb PS3 as mostly a non-issue sales-wise? IIRC from the retail musing threads, Arcade/Halo 360s and 40gb PS3 were readily available in January, while Pro/Elite 360 and 80gb PS3 were not being restocked.
 

AniHawk

Member
All things considered: the niche fanbase, the M rating, the zero advertising, and the little time on shelves, 65k is pretty impressive for NMH. 100k would've been incredible for January alone.

Poor AWDS2. It'll be profitable for Nintendo, but worldwide Fire Emblem is much more popular now.
 

Zerachiel

Member
AniHawk said:
All things considered: the niche fanbase, the M rating, the zero advertising, and the little time on shelves, 65k is pretty impressive for NMH. 100k would've been incredible for January alone.

Poor AWDS2. It'll be profitable for Nintendo, but worldwide Fire Emblem is much more popular now.

I thought AWDS2 did fairly well, all things considered. Is it doing poorly compared to previous AW games, or FE games? (I don't remember many of those sales, heh).
 
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