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[mckmas8808]

I get that expectation for sure. I still think they'll fall a little closer to the target than 24 (say 24.5m).

Yeah. And I try to remind myself that I think the most any Playstation console did in one year was the PS2 and it did 22.9 million in one year (I believe). So a 5%-8% increase over that, with a $500 price tag is a HUGE achievement.

 

[MrA]

It's crazy that a 3 to 1 margin is even possible at the end of the 3rd year of these consoles. I'd expect something like this by year 5. Also sad that Sony probably won't hit their 25 million FY goal. Do you think they may over-ship between now and March 31st in order to hit their number?

That would take really heavy over shipping, q4 will probably be around half of last q4 (last q4 was around double typical q4s) they'll probably fall behind by another million or 2 units ending in the 22 to 23 million units range, but that's still an excellent performance
I don't think they'll push heavy channel stuffing as I think it'd be better not to pull units from there next years estimate
25 to say 19 million would look like pretty bad decline, 23 to 21 would like a nice gentle descent from peak
I'd say the 25 million estimate was the same trap so many tech companies fell into were they thought the covid boom would never end