Official November 2004 NPD Prediction Thread

C

Chi-Town

Member
Sonycowboy's taking this month off so I'm filling in...

November 2003

PS2 849,000
Gamecube 754,000
Xbox 491,000


Last Month's numbers courtesy of Rhindle

October 2004 Hardware Sales

PS2: 289,000
Xbox: 217,000
GCN: 110,000
GBA: 464,000

Top 25 Software Titles

Rank/Title/Publisher

1 PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS Take 2 Interactive
2 PS2 NBA LIVE 2005 Electronic Arts
3 PS2 MORTAL KOMBAT: DECEPTN Midway
4 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGRND 2 Activision
5 XBX MORTAL KOMBAT: DECEPTN Midway
6 GCN PAPER MARIO: THOUSAND Nintendo
7 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2005 Electronic Arts
8 PS2 X-MEN: LEGENDS Activision
9 PS2 SW: BATTLEFRONT LucasArts
10 XBX FABLE Microsoft
11 XBX SW: BATTLEFRONT LucasArts
12 XBX NBA LIVE 2005 Electronic Arts
13 XBX X-MEN: LEGENDS Activision
14 XBX TONY HAWK UNDERGRND 2 Activision
15 PS2 ESPN NBA 2K5 Take 2 Interactive
16 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2005 Electronic Arts
17 GBA POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP Nintendo
18 PS2 FIFA SOCCER 2005 Electronic Arts
19 GBA POKEMON LEAFGRN W/ADP Nintendo
20 PS2 DEF JAM: FIGHT FOR NY Electronic Arts
21 XBX ESPN NBA 2K5 Take 2 Interactive
22 GCN DONKEY KONGA W/BONGOS Nintendo
23 XBX MADDEN NFL 2005 Electronic Arts
24 PS2 ACE COMBAT 5: UNSUNG Namco
25 XBX TIGER WOODS PGA 2005 Electronic Arts
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.

PS2

1 GRAND THEFT: ANDREAS Take-Two Interactive 100,879,300 $ 2,053,983
2 NBA LIVE 2005 Electronic Arts 13,397,740 $ 347,594
3 MORTAL KOMBAT: DECEPTN Midway Games 13,371,300 $ 261,022
4 TONY HAWK UNDERGRND 2 Activision 11,558,910 $ 245,461
5 MADDEN NFL 2005 Electronic Arts 7,773,246 $ 178,187

Xbox

1 MORTAL KOMBAT: DECEPTN Midway Games 11,338,380 $ 218,023
2 FABLE Microsoft 5,550,907 $ 116,001
3 SW: BATTLEFRONT LucasArts 5,460,644 $ 112,352
4 NBA LIVE 2005 Electronic Arts 5,371,416 $ 138,237
5 X-MEN: LEGENDS Activision 5,186,361 $ 107,761

GC

1 PAPER MARIO: THOUSAND Nintendo 8,959,945 $ 189,703
2 DONKEY KONGA W/BONGOS Nintendo 3,329,404 $ 72,051
3 TONY HAWK UNDERGRND 2 Activision 2,381,384 $ 50,491
4 X-MEN: LEGENDS Activision 2,041,272 $ 43,703
5 NBA LIVE 2005 Electronic Arts 1,394,158 $ 36,629

GBA

1 POKEMON FIRERED W/ADP Nintendo 4,738,851 $ 142,514
2 POKEMON LEAFGRN W/ADP Nintendo 4,138,924 $ 129,665
3 SHARK TALE Activision 2,170,846 $ 85,720
4 MARIO PINBALL LAND Nintendo 2,043,483 $ 69,149
5 KIRBY AMAZING MIRROR Nintendo 1,662,038 $ 55,979

Notable Releases from November

Multi-Platform

The Lord of the Rings:Third Age
The Urbz
Need for Speed Underground 2
Ghost Recon 2(PS2 version came out very end of month)
Call of Duty
Espn College Hoops
Goldeneye 2
Prince of Persia 2(came out on last day of the month)

PS2

Smackdown Vs Raw
Jak 3
Rumble Roses
Metal Gear Solid 3

Xbox

Halo 2
Blinx 2

Gamecube

Mario Tennis
Metroid Prime 2
Baten Kaitos

DS

Super Mario 64 DS
Spiderman 2
Feel the Magic
Asphalt Urban GT
Madden
 
Need to add Ghost Recon 2 to XBOX (More notable then Blinx)
EDIT: Sorry thought was only listed for PS2

PS2 730,000
Gamecube 390,000
Xbox 900,000
 
Looking at the NPD preview... Pachter expects 11 million more units of hardware (including GBA) to be sold in November and December.

I expect about 40% of those to be sold in November and 60% in December. So, I'm guessing that a little over 4 million units will be sold in November.

GBA = 1.6M - a modest increase over last year due to price drop
PS2 = 800K - GTA hype, but shortages give PS2 a slight drop
XB = 870k - Halo 2 hype and a continuing Xbox momentum with consumers
GC = 320k - No price drop to save their asses, but still a 200% increase over Oct because of other console shortages
DS = 520k - it is a launch unit and these numbers are consistent with Nintendo PR

Total = 4.11 Million units :D
 
Redbeard said:
GR2 isn't the same game on PS2/Xbox.
Click to expand...

True, but they gave them the same name and advertise them in the same commercial. For our purposes, it's considered a multi-platform release.
 
I'm probably going to be wrong on this but oh well..

GBA - 1.5m
PS2 - 1.3m
XBX - 700k
GCN - 400k
 
Hardware:
----------------------
GBA: 1.1M
DS: 480k
Xbox: 750k
PS2: 650k
GCN: 350k

Software:
---------------------------
Halo 2 3.6 million sounds fine (2 skus)
GTA:SA 2.2 million
MGS 3 650k
NFSU 2 (PS2) 500k
THUG 2 (PS2) 350k

Others over 200k
-----------------------------
Madden 2005 (PS2)
Mario 64DS
Smackdown vs Raw
Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2)

Others over 100k
-----------------------------
Metroid Prime: Echoes
Ghost Recon (Xbox)
NFSU 2 (Xbox)
THUG 2 (Xbox)
Call of Duty: Finest Hour (Xbox)
Goldeneye (Xbox)
Goldeneye (PS2)
Mortak Kombat: Deception (PS2)
Killzone
Jak 3
R&C:UYA
ATV:OF 3
Madden 2005 (Xbox)
NBA Live 2005 (PS2)
NBA Live 2005 (Xbox)
ESPN NBA 2k5 (PS2)
ESPN NBA 2k5 (Xbox)
ESPN NFL 2k5 (PS2)
Halo (Xbox)
Pokemon: Fire
Pokemon: Leaf
The Incredibles (GBA)
The Incredibles (PS2)
The Sims: Urbz (PS2)
Sponge Bob Square Pants: The Movie (GBA)
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
 
Link316 said:
PS2 1.4M
Xbox 550K
GCN 150K
GBA 550K
DS 500K
Click to expand...
That is the worst prediction i've ever seen.

GBA - 1.3M
PS2 - 700k
Xbox - 700k
NDS - 500k
GCN - 400k

Super Mario 64 DS - 284,621
Feel the Magic - 125,214
Metroid Prime 2: Echoes - 280,140
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 576,181
 
Link316 said:
GCN 150K
GBA 550K
Click to expand...
Erm, we already know for a fact GBA sold 800k Thanksgiving week. Also the Mario Kart DD GC bundle alone moved 250k in the weeks before black friday... time to re-evanluate your figures.
 
jarrod said:
Erm, we already know for a fact GBA sold 800k Thanksgiving week. Also the Mario Kart DD GC bundle alone moved 250k in the weeks before black friday... time to re-evanluate your figures.
Click to expand...

yeah but are those retail sales or simply just what Nintendo sold to retail, those numbers look too nice and rounded to be retail sales
 
Link316 said:
yeah but are those retail sales or simply just what Nintendo sold to retail, those numbers look too nice and rounded to be retail sales
Click to expand...
Those will probably be retail sales. And besides, what looks better in a press release?

801, 242 and 249,985 OR
800,000 and 250,000
 
I don't get these numbers you guys are posting, how old were the gamers that got GC's last year for MKDD. How many 13-14 year olds do you think will be getting a Xbox and Halo2.

I think you guys may find yourselves surprised by the numbers and confused.
 
Link316 said:
yeah but are those retail sales or simply just what Nintendo sold to retail, those numbers look too nice and rounded to be retail sales
Click to expand...
Those are sold through figures. Nintendo used the same PR to mention they'd sold through 500k DS units at about 90% of their shipment (shipment being 550k).

But more realistically, why would Nintendo ship 800k GBA in one week if sell through for the month was only 550k (or 250 MKDD bundles if GC only sold 150k)? Makes zero sense, plus your numbers are just pitifully low for November, regardless of market conditions. This is the season where Nintendo traditionally moves 70% of it's product after all.

Had you wanted to make Nintendo look bad, you could've said something like 290k for GC and 950k for GBA. With these numbers however, you won't be taken seriously.
 
jarrod said:
Those are sold through figures. Nintendo used the same PR to mention they'd sold through 500k DS units at about 90% of their shipment (shipment being 550k).

But more realistically, why would Nintendo ship 800k GBA in one week if sell through for the month was only 550k (or 250 MKDD bundles if GC only sold 150k)? Makes zero sense, plus your numbers are just pitifully low for November, regardless of market conditions. This is the season where Nintendo traditionally moves 70% of it's product after all.

Had you wanted to make Nintendo look bad, you could've said something like 290k for GC and 950k for GBA. With these numbers however, you won't be taken seriously.
Click to expand...

jarrod, post yours.
 
jarrod said:
But more realistically, why would Nintendo ship 800k GBA in one week if sell through for the month was only 550k (or 250 MKDD bundles if GC only sold 150k)?
Click to expand...

cause its the holidays and its possible that retailers might've wanted extra stock on hand rather than run into shortage problems like they're now have with the PS2 and Xbox, Nintendo is also known to stuff the channel

jarrod said:
Had you wanted to make Nintendo look bad, you could've said something like 290k for GC and 950k for GBA. With these numbers however, you won't be taken seriously.
Click to expand...

actually, it seems that you're taking it too seriously, its just a prediction :P
 
sonycowboy said:
jarrod, post yours.
Click to expand...
From the other thread...

GBA: 1.4M
Xbox: 850k
PS2: 800k
DS: 550k
GC: 400k
NGE: 7

...I'm expecting everyone to make out pretty well (well, except Nokia, heh). PS2, Xbox & Ds all would've done better if they could meet demand obviously.


Link316 said:
actually, it seems that you're taking it too seriously, its just a prediction :P
Click to expand...
Ah, but to be taken as an honest prediction, it'll need to be taken seriously. :P
 
I think your GC numbers may be a little on the low side. I just get the feeling GC sales are going to be surprisingly high. I would like to see last years prediction numbers, but I don't believe its possible.
 
OG_Original Gamer said:
I think your GC numbers may be a little on the low side. I just get the feeling GC sales are going to be surprisingly high. I would like to see last years prediction numbers, but I don't believe its possible.
Click to expand...

Most people are probably basing their Gamecube predictions on the fact that Nintendo stated in a press release touting their DS sales that the Mario Kart Bundle sold around 250,000 in November.
 
Sean said:
I'm probably going to be wrong on this but oh well..

GBA - 1.5m
PS2 - 1.3m
XBX - 700k
GCN - 400k
Click to expand...

I think you will be too. :D But since I don't have the balls to make my own accurate predictions, I'll just tell why I think this is inaccurate, because I spend Too Much Time looking at the statistics. Comparing this year to 2003 through October, in 7 months there was a drop of between 3 and 9%. The exceptions were a 0.1% increase in January, a 27% drop in March (due to 2003's GBASP), and a 7.3% increase in September. On the whole, sales for the year are down about 7%.

What have past Novembers been like for the sum of GBA, GCN, PS2, and Xbox?
2001: 3.23 million
2002: 3.54 million
2003: 3.42 million
2004 Sean's prediction: 3.9 million

Is it possible that things like Halo 2 and GTA:SA will increase hardware sales? Certainly. However, with sales overall down from the year before, GCN not selling a quarter million in a single day this year, and the DS as extra competition, I doubt the combined GCN/GBA/XBX/PS2 numbers will have increased 14% from last November.
 
Jacobi said:
Please tell me why those prediction threads are necessary.
Click to expand...

We are all aspiring "industry analysts"

GBA: 1.2 million
PS2: 1 million
Xbox: 850,000
GC: 350,000
DS: 550,000
 
The market has closed, so predicting time is over.

Now we have to wait for someone to get their hands on the numbers.
 
GBA: 1.3 million
PS2: 1 million
Xbox: 800k
DS: 450k
GC: 300k

Metroid Prime 2: 200k
Mario Power Tennis: 140k
Paper Mario: 80k
The Wind Waker: 100k

(we already know GTASA and Halo 2)

I have a feeling we'll finally see the GC's first million selling third party title in a single country this month too, if Sonic Adventure 2 manages to sell about 40,000.
 
I proclaim Sonycowboy the winner with his scary close hardware numbers...

we'll just ignore most of those software predictions though :)
 
Actual #'s:
Hardware

PS2: 694K (all SKUs including bundles)
XBX: 708K (all SKUs including bundles)
NDS: 479K
GBA: 1,100K (all colors/bundles)
NGC: 350K (all colors/bundles)
Click to expand...

And the best prediction goes to. . .

sonycowboy said:
Hardware:
----------------------
GBA: 1.1M
DS: 480k
Xbox: 750k
PS2: 650k
GCN: 350k
Click to expand...

And the worst. . .

Link316 said:
PS2 1.4M
Xbox 550K
GCN 150K
GBA 550K
DS 500K
Click to expand...

Thank you ladies and gents have a good night. Don't forget to tip your waitress.
 
what's really creepy...

is that sonycowboy's numbers (in total) are 1,000 units short of complete accuracy.

Talk about almost smacking all the nails on the head. (Thank the DS for that one!)
 
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