Sony absoultely can sell 2 million units to just the hardcore. But that's not enough. Me and you agree on more than we disagree. The main place we disagree (in my opinion) is here....
A. I think you need to feed the hardcore VR audience first a steady flow of quality games and grow from there to the casuals. Exactly like what happened in the console gaming market.
B. You seem to think companies need to pull in the casuals first and then with a huge market, start giving the hardcore the games that they want.
Console gaming market was started to bring more accessibility to people at home so you don't have to depend on the arcade which was then the enthusiast market, and that then turned into needing to attract consumers with appealing software to sell systems instead of just better hardware and a bunch of features, you needed appealing hardware to attract the bigger groups at a price that was accessible. There was never a time during consoles that you had to atreact the hardcore first,.
The one exception which isn't really one, was the PS2/Xbox/360/PS3 time frame where the term "hardcore" applied to everyone interested in games, where as casual was changed to most who were not interested in games, which then changed to not interested in console games, but flash browser and mobile games, creating massive confusion over those terms mainly because of the Wii (and DS to a lesser extent)
However, the semi-casual gamers are still the same casuals they were the gen before that time, and those are still the ones who play COD on Xbox over the wii, that you need to attract.
VR is no different. For one, VR has been mostly an enthusiast hardcore market for
8 years. VR this generation has only taken off 3 times and all due to 3 headset brands managing to get casuals on board, with PSVR1 also doing well with that market earlier on. .
How can you possibly still be saying we need to pull the hardcore first over casuals when hardcore has been the primary target of the market for 8 years? We have seen it doesn't sell headsets. I think you're gravely underestimating how bad the VR market is right now.
All post Quest 1 headsets not the Quest 2
haven't even sold 1 million units combined, and that's including whatever sales were still going on whatever retail is/was still selling older headsets from earlier this wave, including the last few years of PSVR1. Only Quest 2 has managed to do that in this period post-Quest 1, that is sell 1 million units by itself, not combined with anything else..
Really, you could probably move that start time to 2018, and the results would likely still be the same where all outside Quest 1 and Quest 2, combined don't make up 1 million units.
You have Quest 2 shipping (maybe) 20 million, and then what's after that since 2018? Quest 1?
Most of PSVR1's sales were in the first few years, and Gear ended up being killed a year after that so Oculus can focus on the original Quest and other products going on their own. So we are talking about a VR market that's been dead
outside one brand for 5-6 years. Quest. (Heck, technically Oculus has been leading VR since they partnered wit Samsung.)
VR does not move without general audiences. Period.
Sony also knows this, hence the launch lineup, I expect we will see demo booths at retailers again to get the casuals to buy the headset, or both headset and PS5 if they don't already have the latter.