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[sonycowboy]

Many thanks to Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, NPD results are due next Thursday

Prediction thread is here

Entertainment Software: August 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect +12% Sales Growth

We expect August U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, September 13. We forecast sales of $445 million, +12% compared to last year's $399 million.

Our estimate reflects $310 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $135 million.

We estimate sell-through of 420,000 Wii, 240,000 Xbox 360, and 150,000 PS3 hardware systems.

Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $107 million, down 31% compared to last year and much weaker than the last three month's average of -20%, but consistent with our full year projection.

Sales growth over the last 12 months was a robust 16%, with last month up 11%. However, we expect more modest sales gains through the summer, as comparisons got tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.

We continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.

We expect major share price appreciation for the major video game publishers by the end of the year as investors gain confidence that the next generation console cycle is in full swing, and recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.

For August, we expect the following revenue results:

· Activision -- $65 million, +254% y-o-y.
· Atari -- $2 million, -55% y-o-y.
· Electronic Arts -- $135 million, -11% y-o-y.
· Majesco -- $3 million, +11% y-o-y.
· Midway -- $3 million, -49% y-o-y.
· Take-Two -- $60 million, +221% y-o-y.
· THQ -- $23 million, -5% y-o-y.
· Ubisoft -- $22 million, +90% y-o-y.

We expect August sales to be driven by new releases Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 08 (PS2, PS3, Xbox, 360, GC, DS, PSP, PC, Wii), Nintendo’s Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Wii), and Take-Two’s Bioshock (360, PC) along with continued sales of Activision’s Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80's Exp and Guitar Hero 2, Electronic Arts’ NCAA Football 08, and Nintendo’s Wii Play. We expect Xbox 360 hardware and software sales to increase over prior months due to the Xbox 360 price cuts.

Specific SW:

Madden 1.9M
Bioshock 600k
NCAA 300k
Guitar Hero Encore 300k
Boogie 150k
Stuntman + Moto GP 100k (combined)

Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 420,000
PS3 150,000
Xbox 360 240,000
PS2 225,000
PSP 210,000
DS 400,000
GBA 75,000

PS2 software sales declines have moderated over the past three months, given the phenomenal lineup of massmarket games released in May and June (-19% in May, -21% in June, -22% in July). The degree of PS2 software sales declines in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation console sales, as most next generation consoles are likely replacements for current generation consoles. As total next generation hardware sales increase, we expect a corresponding decrease in PS2 software sales, and we have modeled a decline to -31% in August.

 

[FrankT]

Wrong again sir, but hey, A for effort after last month.

 

[CrushDance]

Sounds about right. I actually don't think Wii will go that high this month(minor difference) but I think 20k less.

PS3 needs to do something. The numbers aren't "that bad" for the situation it's in but it should at least be breaking 200k a month.

 

[radjago]

PS3 and 360 seem a little high for a 4 week month.

 

[schuelma]

4 weeks or 5 this month?

4 weeks.


I personally am more excited about software. The Madden comparisons, Bioshock/MP3.

 

[RiskyChris]

Wrong again sir, but hey, A for effort after last month.

What's off about those numbers? Is it a 5 week month?

 

[FrankT]

What's off about those numbers? Is it a 5 week month?

4, same as last.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Many thanks to Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, NPD results are due next Thursday

Prediction thread is here

Thanks Sonycowboy. As alway, Pachter will be wrong. Just I hope he will be not SO wrong. Well, the point at the end is that Wii >> X360 > PS3.

Anyway, I'm interested in Bioshock and Metroid Prime III Corruption's performances.

 

[schuelma]

Am I the only one who feels like his predictions have gotten a hell of a lot more reasonable since GAF came to his attention?

 

[Odysseus]

pachter's predictions are in before mine? now i feel tainted. they won't be, but they'll feel like it.

*kicks tieno*

 

[AstroLad]

P putting his money where his mouth is and GAF hating on him.

I guess it's that time of the month again. Watch and learn how the pros do it, GAF.

 

[Beer Monkey]

PS3 needs to do something. The numbers aren't "that bad" for the situation it's in but it should at least be breaking 200k a month.

It's bad that both other systems keep increasing their LTD lead over the PS3 every month. This is not how this generation was supposed to play out (find me anybody at Sony, the industry, or this forum who predicted it before the Sony launch announcement). The only real hope for PS3 at this point to get out of last place is for this 'very long generation' thing to happen, but that's not something they control.

 

[castle007]

that is a lot of Wiis. NPD numbers are due next thursday?? :O

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think all 3 (Wii, 360, PS3) are 20k too high.

 

[schuelma]

It's bad that both other systems keep increasing their LTD lead over the PS3 every month. This is not how this generation was supposed to play out (find me anybody at Sony, the industry, or this forum who predicted it before the Sony launch announcement). The only real hope for PS3 at this point to get out of last place is for this 'very long generation' thing to happen, but that's not something they control.

It's part of Sony's plan stupid.

 

[Maxwell House]

nm, forgot it was a 4 week month. 240k for 360 seems about right.

 

[jetjevons]

Isn't this the month the 360 got the price drop + Madden 08 "superior version" marketing boost?

 

[stressboy]

Where the heck are all these Wii's being found at? I have only seen 1 since launch.

Then again I really have not tried looking for any either.

 

[Maxwell House]

I am trying to imagine in which month the PS3 might actually outsell the 360 next. I am thinking when MGS 4 comes out, around June of next year (I don't think it is going to be a Spring release)?

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Where the heck are all these Wii's being found at? I have only seen 1 since launch.

Then again I really have not tried looking for any either.

The Question for me is who buys them. Just hope that Metroid will perform well, because it deserves it a lot more then Mario party 8.

 

[Wollan]

Isn't this the month the 360 got the price drop + Madden 08 "superior version" marketing boost?

Not to mention BioShock.

 

[Odysseus]

Isn't this the month the 360 got the price drop + Madden 08 "superior version" marketing boost?

yeah, but on the other hand, the darkness boost is wearing off.

 

[swander]

seriously who the fuck is still buying wiis

 

[sankao]

Am I the only one who feels like his predictions have gotten a hell of a lot more reasonable since GAF came to his attention?

He did predict 115k for the X360 last month, which was kinda extreme.

 

[Odysseus]

I am trying to imagine in which month the PS3 might actually outsell the 360 next. I am thinking when MGS 4 comes out, around June of next year (I don't think it is going to be a Spring release)?

the next time the price drops. spring, right wollan?

 

[FrankT]

Where the heck are all these Wii's being found at? I have only seen 1 since launch.

Then again I really have not tried looking for any either.

I saw 3 or 4 at my local Wal-Mart a week or two ago. I've only ever seen 1 their, pretty shocked. But then again I have no urge to buy one so it's all good. I would say those are all but gone now I'm sure.

 

[jetjevons]

yeah, but on the other hand, the darkness boost is wearing off.

Nah, Darkness was multi-platform. ;-)

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Where the heck are all these Wii's being found at? I have only seen 1 since launch.

Then again I really have not tried looking for any either.

Believe it or not, I was over in a Best Buy in Riverside, CA and there was a stock of like 20 Wii's yesterday. I was debating with myself trying to decide if I would buy one now or later, by the time I decided to buy a Wii it was sold out.

Damn, it only took like 30 minutes for it to get snatched up. Before you say anything, yes, it took me 30 minutes to realize that I should buy a Wii before Smash Bros. comes out.

 

[Odysseus]

seriously who the **** is still buying wiis

not hcoregamer00, i'll tell you that.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

didnt 360 do 191k last month? i dont see why everyones predicting 360 being so low now that it has a price drop plus madden.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I am trying to imagine in which month the PS3 might actually outsell the 360 next. I am thinking when MGS 4 comes out, around June of next year (I don't think it is going to be a Spring release)?

I'd give the best odds to Metal Gear or a 'full' Gran Turismo game, but I also think there's a chance that in North America it's just not ever going to happen, period.

If GTA had gotten a timed exclusive deal from Sony that would have guaranteed multiple consecutive months of outselling the 360, IMO.

the next time the price drops. spring, right wollan?

Just like the last time the price dropped. :lol

PS3 is always going to be the most expensive this generation, they can't make the kind of price drop that will put them on top.

 

[Odysseus]

didnt 360 do 191k last month? i dont see why everyones predicting 360 being so low now that it has a price drop plus madden.

170k

 

[FrankT]

didnt 360 do 191k last month? i dont see why everyones predicting 360 being so low now that it has a price drop plus madden.

Closer to 170 IIRC.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

not hcoregamer00, i'll tell you that.

Boo, this is like getting water thrown on you after getting kicked in the balls.

 

[traveler]

I don't usually give a crap about sales threads, but I really am interested in seeing how Bioshock fared this time around.

 

[Mrbob]

What happened to double the sales for X360?

240K after a price drop and Madden isn't that big of a jump.

 

[Arde5643]

It's bad that both other systems keep increasing their LTD lead over the PS3 every month. This is not how this generation was supposed to play out (find me anybody at Sony, the industry, or this forum who predicted it before the Sony launch announcement). The only real hope for PS3 at this point to get out of last place is for this 'very long generation' thing to happen, but that's not something they control.

It's part of Sony's plan stupid.

Yup, they're hoping that by the time Nintendo or MS release their next console iteration, the PS3 will finally be able to step into the race of the last gen consoles.

With luck and good marketing, in another 10 years after Nintendo and MS release the next consoles, PS3 will be able to beat Wii's LTD worldwide.


Here's a thumbs up for Sony's brilliant long-term plan.

 

[Frillen]

seriously who the fuck is still buying wiis

Apperantly a lot.

Anyway, MP3:C was only out for 5 days during the August NPD, so don't expect anything earth shattering. It should at least do over 250k though.

 

[FrankT]

What happened to double the sales for X360?

240K after a price drop and Madden isn't that big of a jump.

Which could be exactly one of the reasons why he is wrong, just maybe. Kind of like 115k for last month eh.

 

[sonycowboy]

More info in original post - Madden, Bioshock, more HW, etc

 

[Joe Molotov]

seriously who the fuck is still buying wiis

Your mom.

 

[Mrbob]

X360 needs to break 300K in at least one non Halo 3 non holiday month.

I say 320K in August!

 

[Odysseus]

Just like the last time the price dropped. :lol

PS3 is always going to be the most expensive this generation, they can't make the kind of price drop that will put them on top.

i should have said the next best chance. it got close last time, but close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, nuclear warheads, and a few other things i won't take the time to mention right now.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

With luck and good marketing, in another 10 years after Nintendo and MS release the next consoles, PS3 will be able to beat Wii's LTD worldwide.

Here's a thumbs up for Sony's brilliant long-term plan.

:lol

Joke post, right?

 

[sankao]

What happened to double the sales for X360?

240K after a price drop and Madden isn't that big of a jump.

Was last month 4 or 5 weeks ?
If it was 5 weeks, then that would mean a 76% jump.
If it was 4 weeks, then that would mean a 41% jump.

 

[szaromir]

He's being generous for PS3.

 

[Odysseus]

Which could be exactly one of the reasons why he is wrong, just maybe. Kind of like 115k for last month eh.

but he doubled his prediction from last month. it all fits.

and when he's off, obi-wan's failure will be complete.

 

[davepoobond]

PS3 is always going to be the most expensive this generation, they can't make the kind of price drop that will put them on top.

look at it this way.

the PS3 can drop 250 dollars, still sell for 250.

the wii wouldn't be able to drop 250 dollars

 

[FrankT]

Bioshock 600K, ballsy. Go, go, go Bioshock.

He's being generous for PS3.

Would agree.

 

[traveler]

600k for Bioshock? Sounds good. Hopefully it made at least that.