Pachter's August NPD Preview BIOSHOCKED = 600k ( Wii 420k, 360 240k, PS3 150k)

Parl said:
It's a minority thing to believe Wii third parties sell. This is why.
Click to expand...
Because, you know, people only buy Nintendo consoles to buy Nintendo games...
(ok that was proved wrong)


Then people who buy Wii are only casuals, that will only buy minigames...
(ok that was proved wrong too)


So people who buy Wii will not buy yearly sports games...
(we will see ;))
 
Re: Madden Wii

FWIW, I'm basing my prediction of Madden Wii as the worst selling version based on Amazon.com rankings. Wii never really kept up when the other three versions were neck and neck with the PS2 and 360 version always leading the pack.

The Wii version was always a good 10-20 ranks away whereas the three version were always tightly right after each other.

It's not an exact science but Amazon is usually very good at showing trends.
 
Odysseus said:
not saying there's no madden bump, but historically, there hasn't really ever been a madden bump. on the other hand, i predicted 300k for 360 in august in the july npd thread, and i'm not budging from it. if i were to revise it, i would say 270k, but we're committed. no turning back now. i'm a rock.
Click to expand...

Also need to add the 360 may be higher as well simply because in August was the first time that I have seen Elite's readily available.
 
titiklabingapat said:
Re: Madden Wii

FWIW, I'm basing my prediction of Madden Wii as the worst selling version based on Amazon.com rankings. Wii never really kept up when the other three versions were neck and neck with the PS2 and 360 version always leading the pack.

The Wii version was always a good 10-20 ranks away whereas the three version were always tightly right after each other.

It's not an exact science but Amazon is usually very good at showing trends.
Click to expand...
Just like when the PS3 was supposed to outsell the 360. :lol :lol
 
titiklabingapat said:
Re: Madden Wii

FWIW, I'm basing my prediction of Madden Wii as the worst selling version based on Amazon.com rankings. Wii never really kept up when the other three versions were neck and neck with the PS2 and 360 version always leading the pack.

The Wii version was always a good 10-20 ranks away whereas the three version were always tightly right after each other.

It's not an exact science but Amazon is usually very good at showing trends.
Click to expand...

Oh come on. That may be true but Amazon is a terrible source.
 
Xzbeat said:
Just like when the PS3 was supposed to outsell the 360. :lol :lol
Click to expand...
It doubled up in sales.

I never claimed the PS3 would outsell the 360 using Amazon anyway. I'm just predicting the general trend of the Madden SKUs relative to each other.
 
CONGRATULATIONS!

Ken and the Irrational Team need to give themselves a pat on the back, because they made an awesome game that is selling as much as it deserves!
 
davepoobond said:
look at it this way.

the PS3 can drop 250 dollars, still sell for 250.

the wii wouldn't be able to drop 250 dollars ;)
Click to expand...

For Sony's sake, it might be in their long term best interest to make the PS3 a pack-in for the Wii.
 
Seems like Bioshock pretty much met my expectation of it doing 500k+ in its first month for NA. Should exceed what I thought it would do before December by going well over one million. I figure the X360 version Madden probably did more than the combined of PS2 and PS3 for the same period...cementing the idea that X360 is taking the traditional casual market. I mean, you don't get more casual than the American sports games genre (football) even despite it also representing some of the most hardcore players out there. Seems like Pachter is lowballing X360 for the month, IMO. I fully expect 300k+ for August's NPD. What will be most interesting, IMO, is the PS3 number and how sustained the sales boost is from last month's so-called price drop. Of course, it will be difficult to determine since August is usually the time when all platforms start receiving their holiday season boosts.
 
P90 said:
For Sony's sake, it might be in their long term best interest to make the PS3 a pack-in for the Wii.
Click to expand...

Or maybe Sony can buy this October's shipment of about 1.2 million Wii's for about $300 million and put them as pack ins. So many possibilities, Sony! Get to it!
 
I'm watching the PS3 as well.. how much of a pricedropbump will it have leftover?

And will the Wii really do over 400k again..?
 
Parl said:
Or maybe Sony can buy this October's shipment of about 1.2 million Wii's for about $300 million and put them as pack ins. So many possibilities, Sony! Get to it!
Click to expand...

Now that's just being mean.
 
600k for Bioshock seems about right. It may be more in the 500k-600k range, but it's a pretty hot seller.

Sticking with 125k-150k (or lower) for MP3. I can see the NPD thread already:

-Bioshock vs. MP3
-FPS/core games don't sell on the Wii
-More games should come to the 360 because third party games actually sell there
-nuh uh those games should come to the Wii because it sells the most
 
AniHawk said:
600k for Bioshock seems about right. It may be more in the 500k-600k range, but it's a pretty hot seller.

Sticking with 125k-150k (or lower) for MP3. I can see the NPD thread already:

-Bioshock vs. MP3
-FPS/core games don't sell on the Wii
-More games should come to the 360 because third party games actually sell there
-nuh uh those games should come to the Wii because it sells the most
Click to expand...

Metroid Prime 3 Sixty confirmed?
 
Cubsfan23 said:
Why are people doubting Bioshock sold 600k :lol :lol :lol
Click to expand...

Maybe because the mainstream does not know about Bioshock.

I work at a major retailer and every time I recommend Bioshock everyone scratches their head and say, "I've never heard of that!" Some mentioned on this thread that Bioshock got a huge push from M$, but I haven't seen much promotional stuff in my store. Maybe those working at game shops have a different perspective.

But based on quality alone, I would be Bioshocked if it didn't hit 600k.


PEACE

Off topic: First post!
 
felipeko said:
Madden Wii > Madden PS3
I can hope, can't i? :D
Click to expand...

If Madden 08 Wii was any good like 07, I might agree with you. But, Madden 08 on Wii is an absolutely buggy piece of crap. My brother bought it yesterday. Lucky for EBs 7 day return policy.
 
JaY P. said:
Maybe because the mainstream does not know about Bioshock.

I work at a major retailer and every time I recommend Bioshock everyone scratches their head and say, "I've never heard of that!" Some mentioned on this thread that Bioshock got a huge push from M$, but I haven't seen much promotional stuff in my store. Maybe those working at game shops have a different perspective.

But based on quality alone, I would be Bioshocked if it didn't hit 600k.


PEACE

Off topic: First post!
Click to expand...

That's nice, but I very much suggest you don't continue to post PEACE after every post.
 
no numbers for Metroid prime 3? I guess he's playing the wait and see approach for Wii software... can't blame him, this is the first big name "hardcore" release since Zelda (which isn't all that hardcore to begin with), so sales will be enlightening.
 
VultureDude said:
no numbers for Metroid prime 3? I guess he's playing the wait and see approach for Wii software... can't blame him, this is the first big name "hardcore" release since Zelda (which isn't all that hardcore to begin with), so sales will be enlightening.
Click to expand...
That was Super Paper Mario.
 
Madden 1.9M


Broken down for your viewing pleasure.

360 - 600K
PS2 - 450K
PS3 - 250K
Wii - 150K

The difference is spread out to the the rest of the consoles, handhelds, PC ...



felipeko

Well you have less then 5 months left here at GAF, use that time wisely, not solely on your pipe dreams.
 
legend166 said:
If Madden 08 Wii was any good like 07, I might agree with you. But, Madden 08 on Wii is an absolutely buggy piece of crap. My brother bought it yesterday. Lucky for EBs 7 day return policy.
Click to expand...


EB now has a 7 day return policy once again?
I thought they only allowed returns if the software was defective?
If they infact reinstated a return policy and offered full instore credit on the return then holy shit I'm off to buy a few games I've been sitting on the fence over.

What is the deal here?
 
titiklabingapat said:
That was Super Paper Mario.
Click to expand...

IMO, not so much. My friend's non-gamer sister has loved paper mario since the N64 days. I think the fact that it has the word "mario" in the title gives it an edge.
 
bdoughty said:
Madden 1.9M


Broken down for your viewing pleasure.

360 - 600K
PS2 - 450K
PS3 - 250K
Wii - 150K
Click to expand...

Is that actually how Pachter broke them down?

PS2 Madden 06 did > 1.4 million in 3 weeks in 2005. ~1.8 million in its first 8 weeks.
PS2 Madden 07 did > 800K in 1 week in 2006. ~1.4 million in its first 6 weeks.
PS2 Madden 08 had 3 weeks in 2007.

Hmmm...

;)
 
Parl said:
It's a minority thing to believe Wii third parties sell. This is why.
Click to expand...

Userbase is not everything. Even though the SNES/Genesis userbases were about the same in size, the Genesis versions of Madden and other sports games completed knocked the shit out of the SNES versions. I think we're going to be seeing a similar situation here in this generation. The Madden crowd is drawn to the 360/PS3, not the Wii. The sales of Madden on the PS3 are probably going to double the Wii sales in August.
 
No I was just guessing out my ass using the figure he came up with. :lol

Though I do stand by my order, really could care less how many are sold. Only got into the pissing match with Wii owners because they are so delusional it is hard not to. The only copy that matters to me is the one I play on my 360.

No offense to Sales Age, I like numbers and all, just don't live and die by them.
 
ZealousD said:
Userbase is not everything. Even though the SNES/Genesis userbases were about the same, the Genesis versions of Madden and other sports games completed knocked the shit out of the SNES versions. I think we're going to be seeing a similar situation here in this generation. The Madden crowd is drawn to the 360/PS3, not the Wii. The sales of Madden on the PS3 are probably going to double the Wii sales in August.
Click to expand...

Thats what I'm thinking. The mindeset of the typical PS3/360 gamer is that of a Madden fan. Wii is more like a machine for either the younger/soccer mom crowd. The ones who don't care if the game plays better on other consoles,Madden fans will go the extra mile though,PS3/360 is where I think they will go.
 
ZealousD said:
Userbase is not everything. Even though the SNES/Genesis userbases were about the same, the Genesis versions of Madden and other sports games completed knocked the shit out of the SNES versions. I think we're going to be seeing a similar situation here in this generation. The Madden crowd is drawn to the 360/PS3, not the Wii. The sales of Madden on the PS3 are probably going to double the Wii sales in August.
Click to expand...

And thus he creates a 50 page thread of wii owners explaining how "Nintendo has garnered a whole new userbase" and thus will take over the sports game genre. That the wiimote version can be the superior version.

rabble rabble rabble
 
bdoughty said:
And thus he creates a 50 page thread of wii owners explaining how "Nintendo has garnered a whole new userbase"
Click to expand...

A whole new userbase for a Nintendo console. That being the PS2 casuals who bought a fair amount of Madden copies over the years.
:P
It's only in the process of doing it now, so I expect Madden to increase on Wii as the years go by. It will never match the PS2 Madden sales, though.

bdoughty said:
and thus will take over the sports game genre.
Click to expand...

Not at all. We definitely won't see a concentrated portion of the overall sales on a single platform like we did with the PS2, though.
 
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