Most of us know, on a gut level, that this rationalization process happens.
Back in 2008, Republicans were inclined to emphasize the risk of electing an inexperienced commander in chief, while eight years later Democrats are bragging about having the most qualified nominee ever. Simply put, for most people, attachments to parties and candidates are more profound and more fundamental than attachments to issue positions. People take cues from high-profile party leaders and bring their opinions in line with what figures they admire think.
This happens on even basic factual questions. And it afflicts not only inattentive, low-information voters but highly attentive ones too.
Indeed, Bartels and Achen show that in some ways, highly attuned voters are simply better at misinforming themselves. Back in the 1990s, for example, the budget deficit was falling rapidly, and Bill Clinton liked to tout this fact. Under the circumstances, its perhaps not so surprising that Democrats were more likely than Republicans to correctly state that the deficit was declining.
What is surprising is that, as Bartels and Achen showed in a classic 2006 paper, its not the uninformed Republicans who are more likely to have gotten this wrong. Instead, the more attention a given Republican paid to politics and political news, the more likely he was to mistakenly believe the deficit was rising during the Clinton years. Paying more attention to politics, in other words, didnt make people more informed about the underlying issue it made them more informed about partisan talking points. Attentive Republicans knew that bragging about the falling deficit was a thing Clinton and his allies did, and they knew they didnt like Clinton and his allies, so they knew he was wrong.
Ignorance of political issues has always been with us, and folk theorists know how to deal with it you simply assume that ignorance leads to random error, and that actual political outcomes are being driven primarily by a disproportionately well-informed minority.
The fact that citizens are getting their views on issues from the politicians they support and not vice versa and that the most informed citizens are most likely to do so is simply devastating to the folk theory. Voters cannot be selecting leaders whose stances they agree with if it turns out that voters are learning what stances they should agree with by taking cues from the leaders they support.