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[semiconscious]

There's a lot of this type of bargain offered up in these threads, and I guess that's really what drives these conversations -- it's not so much "I logically think the game is more likely to not be scheduled for this year" as an emotional response to radio silence.

But I don't see how that equation really affects Atlus either way? On one side you'll be enthusiastic about a game you are definitely going to buy, and on the other side you... won't be enthusiastic about a game in advance, but will still definitely buy it?

1) afa waiting for a firm release date, i'm not really seeing 'i'll believe it when i see it' so much of an emotional response as simply common sense?...

2) i never claimed it'd affect atlus. why would i ever think it would?...

I think it's weird that you say this and yet cite as an example something like an E3 presentation that has basically zero effect on sales of a game like P5. Even the most optimistic possible market segment for this title is niche enough that stuff like front-page IGN coverage isn't really a factor in the buying decision, and that's all that an appearance on-stage at E3 really gets you. The other stuff isn't even really behind -- you only need 2-3 months to run a pre-order cycle, and there's plenty of time to do that for a late 2015 (which is what we'd be talking about) date.

you just know this? how?...

I see what you're saying, but these reasons basically boil down to "the company is so fucked-up and incompetent that lying (to the public or to themselves) is more likely than offering a truthful date." That's definitely a scenario that happens, +but you'd generally look for something beyond one vague release date to theorize it about a long-running company.

We have a pretty decent amount of info about how Atlus USA operate -- they generally don't announce stuff far in advance, they hold off on announcements and dates for US releases of games that are 100% certain to come over, and they take a clearly subordinate position to the Japanese branch when it comes to promotion of any specific game, so their ability to announce dates or other key info is gated by what's been announced in Japan. "We don't have a JP date yet so Atlus USA has to sit on their hands for a while still" seems like an explanation that calls for far less speculation and assumption than "Atlus USA is engaged in an effort to mislead people about a release date due to disastrous internal politics." I think that's especially true when trying for a near-simultaneous launch while still being stuck behind Japan for promotion would have exactly this effect of leaving the US branch in a promotional holding pattern until pretty late in the game.

fine. agreed. but does it really matter what the 'reason' is if the end result remains 'no firm release date'? i'm not accusing anyone of lying/misleading - people go with the info they receive. what i'm seeing is a game supposedly no more than 5 months out with no release date, & no store listing. why you're so seemingly invested in people believing that this's 'business as usual' in this instance, i have no idea. it just doesn't look like 'business as usual' to me. i can't help it - every other game i'll be getting for the rest of 2015 has a release date & a store listing at this point. every one. that, to me, is 'business as usual'...

so please, just leave me to wallow in my skepticism, man. i've been hurt before. i don't wanna get hurt again. i'll believe the game's coming in 2015 when i see the 2015 release date. & not before ...

 

[artsi]

fine. agreed. but does it really matter what the 'reason' is if the end result remains 'no firm release date'? i'm not accusing anyone of lying/misleading - people go with the info they receive. what i'm seeing is a game supposedly no more than 5 months out with no release date, & no store listing. why you're so seemingly invested in people believing that this's 'business as usual' in this instance, i have no idea. it just doesn't look like 'business as usual' to me. i can't help it - every other game i'll be getting for the rest of 2015 has a release date & a store listing at this point. every one. that, to me, is 'business as usual'...

Well for Atlus this is "business as usual", companies do things differently.
They don't really have to follow everyone else as they're both the developer and publisher.

For a recap, here's how much before they announced the release dates for some of their P-STUDIO games.

Persona 3 - 4 months before release
Persona 4 - 4 months before release
Catherine - 4 months before release
P4:Golden - 4 months before release
Persona Q - 4 months before release
Persona 4AN - 4 months before release
Persona 5 - ???

So for some reason I wouldn't be surprised if they announced a December release date in August, or even early September (TGS).

 

[CrimsonFist]

Well for Atlus this is "business as usual", companies do things differently.
They don't really have to follow everyone else as they're both the developer and publishers.

For a recap, here's how much before they announced the release dates for some of their P-STUDIO games.

Persona 3 - 4 months before release
Persona 4 - 4 months before release
Catherine - 4 months before release
Persona Q - 4 months before release
Persona 4AN - 4 months before release
Persona 5 - ???

Not too unusual for Atlus USA either. In addition to Persona 5, Legend of Legacy and Stella Glow only have placeholder dates so far, and Abyss Odyssey: Extended and The Deadly Tower of Monsters both lack even that. And those should all be 2015 titles.

 

[Sakura]

Well for Atlus this is "business as usual", companies do things differently.
They don't really have to follow everyone else as they're both the developer and publisher.

For a recap, here's how much before they announced the release dates for some of their P-STUDIO games.

Persona 3 - 4 months before release
Persona 4 - 4 months before release
Catherine - 4 months before release
P4:Golden - 4 months before release
Persona Q - 4 months before release
Persona 4AN - 4 months before release
Persona 5 - ???

Yea, but considering I doubt they will release the game at the end of December, we are kind of already at the 4 months~ before release yet don't even have a Japanese date. And if we are talking "business as usual" for Atlus, then I am skeptical the US release would be simultaneous-ish with the Japanese release.

Also I assume your listing there is for US release dates only, because I know some of those games had their Japanese release dates announced more than 4 months in advance.

 

[artsi]

Yea, but considering I doubt they will release the game at the end of December, we are kind of already at the 4 months~ before release yet don't even have a Japanese date. And if we are talking "business as usual" for Atlus, then I am skeptical the US release would be simultaneous-ish with the Japanese release.

Also I assume your listing there is for US release dates only, because I know some of those games had their Japanese release dates announced more than 4 months in advance.

Those were all Japanese dates, I checked them all before posting but please correct if there's errors.
Also I didn't calculate per day (like P4 was 3 months and 22 days to be accurate) but ~4 months give or take some days.

Localization has been so uneven there's not really a pattern there, we just have to believe what Atlus USA says on that.

So for both this pattern and the localization in 2015 to be true the only option I see is that there's going to be a (near) worldwide release OR Japan deviates from the pattern and releases it even quicker than the 4 month window.

 

[Sakura]

Those were all Japanese dates, I checked them all before posting but please correct if there's errors.
Also I didn't calculate per day (like P4 was 3 months and 22 days to be accurate) but ~4 months give or take some days.

Localization has been so uneven there's not really a pattern there, we just have to believe what Atlus USA says on that.

So for both this pattern and the localization in 2015 to be true the only option I see is that there's going to be a (near) worldwide release OR Japan deviates from the pattern and releases it even quicker than the 4 month window.

Just off the top of my head, I know a release date of June 2014 was given for Persona Q in November 2013. I don't remember the rest of the games you listed, aside from Persona 4 which I know was about 4 months in advance as you say.

 

[artsi]

Just off the top of my head, I know a release date of June 2014 was given for Persona Q in November 2013. I don't remember the rest of the games you listed, aside from Persona 4 which I know was about 4 months in advance as you say.

Yeah that's my bad, the Persona Q date was the US one by mistake. It had a longer date announcement -> release length in Japan. Double checked the others though.

 

[semiconscious]

So for both this pattern and the localization in 2015 to be true the only option I see is that there's going to be a (near) worldwide release OR Japan deviates from the pattern and releases it even quicker than the 4 month window.

so you're basically saying that the only way a 2015 western release can happen is if it isn't 'business as usual', to the extent that either instance you mention would be different from what's come before?...

this isn't helping to reduce my skepticism ...

 

[charlequin]

What exactly is this statement based on?

Understanding the purpose of E3?

The Electronic Entertainment Expo is a trade show that exists for a very specific purpose: to give press a central place and time for getting info about upcoming products. Its primary goal isn't to communicate anything to actual consumers, but to get things in front of journalists in order to get coverage.

For the biggest companies -- the platform-holders and the Big Four publishers -- the purpose is to get coverage from mainstream media, to start getting brand names in front of people with the intent of getting them ready to spend money well down the line. For most smaller games, though, the goal is just to get products that are near release in front of game writers in order to drive previews and hands-on coverage -- basically, to get good word-of-mouth professionally kickstarted.

When you're selling a niche product -- and P5 is absolutely still a niche product -- getting that media coverage for something that's still a ways off and not playable yet doesn't accomplish much. Inasmuch as your actual customers are watching the show, it's because they're ultra-high-engagement customers (like any person who posts on NeoGAF) who will already have committed themselves to buying your product -- if you can make a sufficiently good showing you might be able to leverage them to start word-of-mouth, but you don't lose anything by showing nothing even if people grumble on the internet about it.

I'm not sure I understand. What will have an effect on game sales for P5 and what sort of marketing will be a factor in the buying decision, then?

Word of mouth, success of previous games in the franchise, good reviews, promotion through online venues close to release, spotlighting on console download services, good release positioning and attractive product, really.

Like, honestly, the efforts Atlus has put in over the last few years to promote Persona as a brand via spinoffs, digital re-releases, and upgraded ports across a wide range of platforms is going to be the single biggest factor in P5's Western sales.

why you're so seemingly invested in people believing that this's 'business as usual' in this instance, i have no idea. it just doesn't look like 'business as usual' to me.

It's totally normal for a game like P5, coming from a publisher like Atlus USA. And I'm invested in it because I'd rather see people respond to something like an interview by talking about the interview than by working themselves into a frenzy over a presumptive product delay they more or less invented.

 

[artsi]

so you're basically saying that the only way a 2015 western release can happen is if it isn't 'business as usual', to the extent that either instance you mention would be different from what's come before?...

this isn't helping to reduce my skepticism ...

No, I'm saying that we're still in the "business as usual" time window regarding the release date announcement. They could announce it in August or TGS and it would still fit the way they have operated in the past.

Atlus USA doesn't have that kind of track record and there's no way to predict what's happening with the localization, but I don't have a reason not to believe John Hardin who came here to say 2015 again, putting his own reputation on the line. He could have just kept quiet if he knew they're not going to make it in 2015.

Personally I'd see it more probable that the USA branch has stepped up their game and has the localization done quicker, than Japan deviating from their own pattern.

 

[semiconscious]

It's totally normal for a game like P5, coming from a publisher like Atlus USA. And I'm invested in it because I'd rather see people respond to something like an interview by talking about the interview than by working themselves into a frenzy over a presumptive product delay they more or less invented.

had no idea that that's what this's been about. it wasn't my intention to derail the thread. i was, in response to other comments, simply expressing why i felt the game might be delayed. but as far as 'frenzies' go? i'm not really seeing any, & certainly not participating in any...

 

[tokkun]

I see what you're saying, but these reasons basically boil down to "the company is so fucked-up and incompetent that lying (to the public or to themselves) is more likely than offering a truthful date." That's definitely a scenario that happens, +but you'd generally look for something beyond one vague release date to theorize it about a long-running company.

I think you are being a little extreme in your characterization. I'm sure there are politics behind the original release dates of Uncharted and Zelda, but would not go so far as to say that Sony/Naughty Dog and Nintendo are "so fucked up and incompetent". If you look to previous years, it is hard to find a developer that has not had to delay a game after announcing a date. Even Atlus delayed P4AN last year! That is the nature of the industry. To suggest that it might happen to Atlus/Sega is not some kind of unique attack on its employees and should not be taken personally.

We have a pretty decent amount of info about how Atlus USA operate -- they generally don't announce stuff far in advance, they hold off on announcements and dates for US releases of games that are 100% certain to come over, and they take a clearly subordinate position to the Japanese branch when it comes to promotion of any specific game, so their ability to announce dates or other key info is gated by what's been announced in Japan. "We don't have a JP date yet so Atlus USA has to sit on their hands for a while still" seems like an explanation that calls for far less speculation and assumption than "Atlus USA is engaged in an effort to mislead people about a release date due to disastrous internal politics." I think that's especially true when trying for a near-simultaneous launch while still being stuck behind Japan for promotion would have exactly this effect of leaving the US branch in a promotional holding pattern until pretty late in the game.

Yeah, but you could have made the same statement about P4AN the day before they announced it was delayed. And I had probably seen more media from it than I have from P5 to date.

If the company behaves the same way when development is going well and development is going poorly, it seems like it ultimately comes down to your personal level of optimism/pessimism about whether both Atlus Japan and USA are able to handle the previously unprecedented challenges of developing a large-scope HD game on multiple platforms and localization for a near-simultaneous release of a game with this much text and voice acting. Personally I could use some more tangible evidence to boost my level of optimism - screens from new areas of the Japanese version, shots of the localized version (even if the same areas we've already seen), details on the inevitable collector's edition, or even just some more concrete comments about how the localization process is going. Just reiterating "2015" is not enough to allay my natural pessimism.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Even Atlus delayed P4AN last year!

They delayed Persona 5 as well, actually.

Word of mouth, success of previous games in the franchise, good reviews, promotion through online venues close to release, spotlighting on console download services, good release positioning and attractive product, really.

Like, honestly, the efforts Atlus has put in over the last few years to promote Persona as a brand via spinoffs, digital re-releases, and upgraded ports across a wide range of platforms is going to be the single biggest factor in P5's Western sales.

Sure, those are big factors, but I think you're underplaying the significance of Persona 5 content being on the front page of IGN or on the E3 stage. IGN's re-upload of the Persona 5 PV01 got 1 million views, for example. Reaching those mainstream audiences from the outset, before the game comes out, will absolutely make people who were originally unaware and do not closely follow news originating from Japan want to become attentive to future media for the game.

It's pretty much the same reason why Persona 5 branding was all over Atlus' E3 booth and the badge, though that's more to maintain interest for the press side of things. They were having public demos out Persona 4: Dancing All Night at E3 for that kind of promotion, and the same goes for Genei Ibun Roku.

 

[charlequin]

I think you are being a little extreme in your characterization. I'm sure there are politics behind the original release dates of Uncharted and Zelda, but would not go so far as to say that Sony/Naughty Dog and Nintendo are "so fucked up and incompetent".

That's a different situation than you described, though. Games get delayed because they're just not done all the time, yes, and that doesn't necessarily say anything negative whatsoever about the dev. In a situation where it's patently obvious a game will be delayed (as people claim in this discussion) but the publisher can't acknowledge it due to morale concerns or an out-of-touch parent company or to mislead investors, that does suggest something is pretty fucked up.

Like, if P5 is delayed in Japan, fine, the game wasn't ready and that'd affect its release date in every region. But if it turns out the JP release has been targeted for, say, October and it hits that without a hitch, something would have to be seriously wrong for USA to miss a 2015 date at that point -- they're assuredly doing a simultaneous process for the script and VA, and made the original 2015 claim based on at least some tentative Japanese schedule that made hitting the date plausible. Would you agree with that?

Sure, those are big factors, but I think you're underplaying the significance of Persona 5 content being on the front page of IGN or on the E3 stage. IGN's re-upload of the Persona 5 PV01 got 1 million views, for example. Reaching those mainstream audiences from the outset, before the game comes out, will absolutely make people who were originally unaware and do not closely follow news originating from Japan want to become attentive to future media for the game.

There isn't really any "mainstream audience" for Persona 5. This is a game that if it ships 500,000 copies in the US, the publisher will throw a party. It has broad appeal within the niche audience that buys weird, stylized Japanese games and very little outside it. Inasmuch as there's potential to convert new people into the audience, it's much easier right around launch when people who are intrigued can act on that interest directly. (And inasmuch as there's potential to get something on the front page of IGN, it's much more likely on an otherwise slow news day than when they have 30 much higher-budget and wider-appeal games to showcase from E3.)

 

[semiconscious]

No, I'm saying that we're still in the "business as usual" time window regarding the release date announcement. They could announce it in August or TGS and it would still fit the way they have operated in the past...

here's what you said:

So for both this pattern and the localization in 2015 to be true the only option I see is that there's going to be a (near) worldwide release OR Japan deviates from the pattern and releases it even quicker than the 4 month window.

which previous release(s) involved either 1) a near world-wide release, or 2) japan deviating from the pattern? because if the answer's 'hardly any', or 'none', then this situation would then not be 'business as usual'...

 

[wmlk]

which previous release(s) involved either 1) a near world-wide release, or 2) japan deviating from the pattern? because if the answer's 'hardly any', or 'none', then this situation would then not be 'business as usual'...

P4A and P4AU.