Support NeoGAF

[Darryl]

That kill seems like a logical choice for a town vig. I guess delayed kill is possible too, but that doesn't seem as likely, especially if that was a scum role. I see no motive for scum to target WAMD.

Launch, what are your thoughts on swamped now? Same for Lifeline.

I don't see how it is the logical choice for a town vig at all. It looks like a scum vig kill to break the discussion off Swamped.

 

[hey_monkey]

Maybe its better if you lynch me so you can finally see how Palmer has been leading you around in circles this entire time.

Why don't you just lay it out for us?

I'm mildly worried about this (moreso Swamped than Stanley) because BB picked up on it

Worried about what exactly, and why?

Show your work, please.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Worried about what exactly, and why?

Show your work, please.

as BB noted correctly, I volunteered a mostly toothless scumlist that Swamped agrees with

Stanley townreads me in spite most of the rest of you, who at best have been light town (Sawneeks) but have largely been scumleans or null

I know my alignment, and I know I'm town - why are these players seeming to suck up to me?

 

[hey_monkey]

I don't see how it is the logical choice for a town vig at all. It looks like a scum vig kill to break the discussion off Swamped.

I'll ask you the same question I asked Burb earlier: if you could peek at the alignments of a few people right now just to give you clues, who would you pick?

With that, I'm gonna step away for a bit to let these developments sink in, I think.

 

[Darryl]

I could have easily lost perspective, but my scum radar has Burbeting, Palmer, and Swamped all extremely high on the list. I don't think I'm going to be satisfied until I see a flip unless role fuckery begins to come up.

The Burbeting/Palmer votes to control discussion away from Swamped. WhereDragons vig (instead of Swamped, which would have helped far more), is very timely and would remove a discussion point from the Swamped lynch and re-angle us towards the "lynch a typical townie" angle. It is all too convenient for me.

I am going to stand by lynching Swamped.

 

[Verelios]

I got through 24 pages and went to sleep only for five more to pop up in the middle of the night. You guys need to come to my Timezone. I'm at page 27, currently but I skimmed the rest which I'll be giving my thoughts on shortly

okay so i just went thorugh all of Acohrs posts, did not take very long.

his play in the first day felt more genuine, nothing amazing or helpful (and quite shitposty but thats pretty normal for him),
The second day was more interesting though, after his significant absence, which many noticed and some even voted him for, he comes in all 'oh nuuuuuu, your all dumb-dumbs for reasons i wont elaborate on at all', makes a paltry attempt at being helpful, and slides back into shadows.
makes me think he panicked at the attention he was getting and overcompensated in the attempt to appear active and help full and townies and all that good shit.

Going through the thread, this seems a bit hypocritical to say Stan since I rated you both in the same coasting group and-

To those voting for me I say!

Sorry for having a life I guess. Anyway, if you want to lynch me for that then that's fine, at least it will give town the spine to actually lynch someone this dayphase.

A bit too coincidental for both of you I labeled coasters to come out the woodwork in the same page. I'm half a mind to think this was because people began debating whether to lynch coasters first, and another thinks you two are laying down an antagonistic perception so if one flips the other can 'slink back to the shadows'.

Let's focus on what Swamped was trying to accomplish before discussing why.

I was kind of nodding along until I got here and realized you didn't actually present any conclusion besides one of them must be scum. This feels like you're grasping at straws Launched, and for an innocuous reason when you're not willing to discuss the 'why's' of the subject. Instead, you're saying to wait for flips rather than reason.

 

[Darryl]

I'll ask you the same question I asked Burb earlier: if you could peek at the alignments of a few people right now just to give you clues, who would you pick?

With that, I'm gonna step away for a bit to let these developments sink in, I think.

Burbeting, Palmer, and Swamped

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I was kind of nodding along until I got here and realized you didn't actually present any conclusion besides one of them must be scum. This feels like you're grasping at straws Launched, and for an innocuous reason when you're not willing to discuss the 'why's' of the subject. Instead, you're saying to wait for flips rather than reason.

I've speculated on why already, but the fact that Swamped's actions are questionable remains, so I wanted to focus on that first. Also, sorry to disappoint, but if I weren't grasping at straws, I'd probably have more information than I'm letting on.

 

[Lifeline]

God dammit. I'm never riding trains with you guys again



*ahem*

anyway can I get spec thread access plssss

 

[Verelios]

I've speculated on why already, but the fact that Swamped's actions are questionable remains, so I wanted to focus on that first. Also, sorry to disappoint, but if I weren't grasping at straws, I'd probably have more information than I'm letting on.

What does this mean? That you do have reasonable doubt?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

What does this mean? That you do have reasonable doubt?

It means I don't have outside information to help me arrive to conclusions. I'm just doing my best with what I'm seeing. It's hard to be certain of anything.

 

[Verelios]

Nomadic said sorry. It was his second post since coming in and could mean all sorts of things, including being the killer. I'd say it's a bit obvious for that but with NS after anime, who knows There was no other post or anything that could be a backtrack unless you count silence as a backtrack.

That sorry could be construed as anything, whether it was him doubting WAMD, okay with the lynch or just generally sorry for her being assassinated. It doesn't have to be tied to a role and if it was, I don't think NS would leave such an obvious breadcrumb around to get Nked.

What's your motive for fishing out his role though? If the person has another shot/kill and is a town aligned vig then it wouldn't do them any good to come forward.

 

[Verelios]

It means I don't have outside information to help me arrive to conclusions. I'm just doing my best with what I'm seeing. It's hard to be certain of anything.

Okay, I can't say for certain everyone on those trains aren't scum but it's going to be deflating if every one of the people who claimed vanilla are actually vanilla.

 

[hey_monkey]

That sorry could be construed as anything, whether it was him doubting WAMD, okay with the lynch or just generally sorry for her being assassinated. It doesn't have to be tied to a role and if it was, I don't think NS would leave such an obvious breadcrumb around to get Nked.

What's your motive for fishing out his role though? If the person has another shot/kill and is a town aligned vig then it wouldn't do them any good to come forward.

Are you talking to me? Or Lifeline? Because my post was in response to Lifeline who's moonlighting as Stretch Armstrong over there and all but declaring NS as the vig or whatever. I'm not fishing anything but rather saying we could tell a blasted thing from Nomadic's two posts.

 

[Verelios]

Are you talking to me? Or Lifeline? Because my post was in response to Lifeline who's moonlighting as Stretch Armstrong over there and all but declaring NS as the vig or whatever. I'm not fishing anything but rather saying we could tell a blasted thing from Nomadic's two posts.

Oh, it did seem uncharacteristic for you to fish so blatantly and as Lifeline is guaranteed town that's even stranger.

 

[Blargonaut]

Alright, leaving this here before I sleep as a loose memo/summary of the last few pages of your post-WMD speculation(s). Food for thought in the collective time sink, yeah:

Nothing indicates WAMD's in-broad-Daylight hit was a Town-aligned contract. We should not abandon the hunt for this killer based on an assumption, that this murder was by a friend who has done and proven nothing to deserve their return to the shadows.

This event is a solidly public line of pursuit towards a potential scum x-shot PR that is more corporeal than any slice of D2 thus far, so:

Who do we feel among us is most likely to pander to the want of an Innocent Child who has deliberately misbehaved with their responsibility for transparency and leadership?

Where's the precedent most likely?

Why would any one faction's representative; Town, scum or otherwise, humour Joffrey Lannister Lifeline like this? How did their own motives possibly culminate in this judgment call?​

I've got more things to say about BB, LL and Palmer later

 

[Swamped]

I don't see how it is the logical choice for a town vig at all. It looks like a scum vig kill to break the discussion off Swamped.

I do see where you are coming from, thinking about it again. Wouldn't a town aligned vig kill the person with the highest votes (me)? But wouldn't a scum aligned vig target LL, the confirmed townie? It would save them a NK. As scum, killing Dragonz just seems like a roundabout thing to do.

as BB noted correctly, I volunteered a mostly toothless scumlist that Swamped agrees with

Stanley townreads me in spite most of the rest of you, who at best have been light town (Sawneeks) but have largely been scumleans or null

I know my alignment, and I know I'm town - why are these players seeming to suck up to me?

Well, I've made my feelings pretty clear on achors, oreo and isaac. BB is probably the only scum you have that I am unsure about. Similarly, with your town list, I specifically said I'm unsure about your town reads of Blarg and Sky, and these are two players I'm going into in more detail. I haven't talked about Monkey much, but her thought processes feel town. It's not a secret that I leaned town on Dragonz. I've also said I believe Natiko's miller claim.

So yeah, don't make this sound like I'm parroting you.

 

[Dr. Worm]

I don't think scum has a nightly faction kill + handing out pineapple pizzas + a daykill; that sounds like a fuckton of firepower, even for "role madness"

In a role madness game that may potentially have multiple blues and a miller hampering town, my guess is that lethality is distributed across multiple factions. If LaunchpadMcQ is right about the pineapple that Lifeline gagged on originated from a neutral and being lethal, I think the daykill comes from town.

Assuming LaunchpadMcQ is right about a deadly neutral, scum posessing a daykill means there'd be three sources of kills, none of which belong to town. Give town their own (unrevealed) vig on top of that to balance the numbers and you get four sources of death - that's 20% of the whole game.

I think either the daykill or the pineapple slice originates from town, purely for balance reasons. Leaning toward daykill being town

 

[Lifeline]

Alright, leaving this here before I sleep as a loose memo/summary of the last few pages of your post-WMD speculation(s). Food for thought in the collective time sink, yeah:

Nothing indicates WAMD's in-broad-Daylight hit was a Town-aligned contract. We should not abandon the hunt for this killer based on an assumption, that this murder was by a friend who has done and proven nothing to deserve their return to the shadows.

This event is a solidly public line of pursuit towards a potential scum x-shot PR that is more corporeal than any slice of D2 thus far, so:

Who do we feel among us is most likely to pander to the want of an Innocent Child who has deliberately misbehaved with their responsibility for transparency and leadership?

Where's the precedent most likely?

Why would any one faction's representative; Town, scum or otherwise, humour Joffrey Lannister Lifeline like this? How did their own motives possibly culminate in this judgment call?​

I've got more things to say about BB, LL and Palmer later

I'll admit, I fucked up. But it was all for survival.

 

[SkyOdin]

as BB noted correctly, I volunteered a mostly toothless scumlist that Swamped agrees with

Stanley townreads me in spite most of the rest of you, who at best have been light town (Sawneeks) but have largely been scumleans or null

I know my alignment, and I know I'm town - why are these players seeming to suck up to me?

For clarity's sake, was your read list honest or fabricated for the sake of this trap? If it was fabricated, what is you real read list?

 

[Dr. Worm]

For clarity's sake, was your read list honest or fabricated for the sake of this trap? If it was fabricated, what is you real read list?

Some of both, though with WAMD going down and the events that transpired since, I may need some reevaluation. Besides BlackBuzzard, I'm somewhat willing to write off the other three; they kinda scream "easy target" for eager scum.

Town I would say is mostly accurate except you (you're more of a null). Scum would be more toward StanleyPalmtree, the role now occupied by Verelios, maybe even a little Swamped.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Okay, I can't say for certain everyone on those trains aren't scum but it's going to be deflating if every one of the people who claimed vanilla are actually vanilla.

Yup. It's prone to gambler's fallacy too. D3: WAMD was town so one of the others MUST be lying. D4: Well, it wasn't WAMD OR Palmer, so it HAS to be BB. D5: Oh shit we're in LYLO!

... on the other hand, scum might favor skipping us for PRs. Yay WIFOM!

Alright, leaving this here before I sleep as a loose memo/summary of the last few pages of your post-WMD speculation(s). Food for thought in the collective time sink, yeah:

Nothing indicates WAMD's in-broad-Daylight hit was a Town-aligned contract. We should not abandon the hunt for this killer based on an assumption, that this murder was by a friend who has done and proven nothing to deserve their return to the shadows.

This event is a solidly public line of pursuit towards a potential scum x-shot PR that is more corporeal than any slice of D2 thus far, so:

Who do we feel among us is most likely to pander to the want of an Innocent Child who has deliberately misbehaved with their responsibility for transparency and leadership?

Where's the precedent most likely?

Why would any one faction's representative; Town, scum or otherwise, humour Joffrey Lannister Lifeline like this? How did their own motives possibly culminate in this judgment call?​

I've got more things to say about BB, LL and Palmer later

That would give scum two killing powers, in addition to whatever targeted SF. Occam's razor tells me it was a town vig trying to save us some trouble with the current relationships.

I do see where you are coming from, thinking about it again. Wouldn't a town aligned vig kill the person with the highest votes (me)? But wouldn't a scum aligned vig target LL, the confirmed townie? It would save them a NK. As scum, killing Dragonz just seems like a roundabout thing to do.



Well, I've made my feelings pretty clear on achors, oreo and isaac. BB is probably the only scum you have that I am unsure about. Similarly, with your town list, I specifically said I'm unsure about your town reads of Blarg and Sky, and these are two players I'm going into in more detail. I haven't talked about Monkey much, but her thought processes feel town. It's not a secret that I leaned town on Dragonz. I've also said I believe Natiko's miller claim.

So yeah, don't make this sound like I'm parroting you.

I agree that a scum dayvig had better targets than WAMD. A confirmed townie, or literally ANY power role that wasn't one of the claimed vanillas. IF it was scum, I'd think they were trying to frame Swamped.

I don't think scum has a nightly faction kill + handing out pineapple pizzas + a daykill; that sounds like a fuckton of firepower, even for "role madness"

In a role madness game that may potentially have multiple blues and a miller hampering town, my guess is that lethality is distributed across multiple factions. If LaunchpadMcQ is right about the pineapple that Lifeline gagged on originated from a neutral and being lethal, I think the daykill comes from town.

Assuming LaunchpadMcQ is right about a deadly neutral, scum posessing a daykill means there'd be three sources of kills, none of which belong to town. Give town their own (unrevealed) vig on top of that to balance the numbers and you get four sources of death - that's 20% of the whole game.

I think either the daykill or the pineapple slice originates from town, purely for balance reasons. Leaning toward daykill being town

Agreed. Tonight should help illuminate the situation though.

I'll admit, I fucked up. But it was all for survival.

Eh, i actually don't think it was a bad idea to latch onto the poison thing. The not claiming innocent child part wasted some of our time though.

 

[Burbeting]

I don't see how it is the logical choice for a town vig at all. It looks like a scum vig kill to break the discussion off Swamped.

Do you really think scum would had multiple killing power roles in a game of 20 people? And do you think Town wouldnt have lynched Dragonz most likely at some point, especially how Launch and Lifeline articulated earlier.

 

[SkyOdin]

So, I understand the argument to lynch Swamped based on her tying vote, even if I don't find it convincing. However, do those of you who find Swamped suspicious have other reasons for that? If I recall, there was a lot of scum reading of her on day 1. Can someone articulate the reason behind that?

 

[Natiko]

Not buying any of the talk that it's a scum vig. Seems like a horrible use of the power by them.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Not buying any of the talk that it's a scum vig. Seems like a horrible use of the power by them.

I'm in the same line of thinking at the moment. Hard to believe that a scum would kill WAMD when several of us have been pressing her as scum for awhile now.

More likely scenario, one of the less active players had a town vig ability, popped in, bought what Lifeline was selling and used his ability on her.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Unvote

BlackBuzzard, you've directed a lot of what appears to be OMGUS at me. With under 24 hours left this phase and no movement toward lynching either of us, why don't we direct our attention elsewhere?

 

[Verelios]

Unvote

BlackBuzzard, you've directed a lot of what appears to be OMGUS at me. With under 24 hours left this phase and no movement toward lynching either of us, why don't we direct our attention elsewhere?

Is this an attempt at associating/consorting with BB? If you're going to direct your energy elsewhere then why try and placate him?

Where's Issac by the way? Feel free to come round and chime in buddy so I have more on you to go by instead of 'who'.

 

[Darryl]

Do you really think scum would had multiple killing power roles in a game of 20 people? And do you think Town wouldnt have lynched Dragonz most likely at some point, especially how Launch and Lifeline articulated earlier.

If this was a scum vig kill, how the f do we even know there is a second scum killing role? Who else died? Because I don't see anyone

 

[Palmer_v1]

If this was a scum vig kill, how the f do we even know there is a second scum killing role? Who else died? Because I don't see anyone

SF and LL were both targeted last night. LL was just immune via innocent child.

 

[Burbeting]

If this was a scum vig kill, how the f do we even know there is a second scum killing role? Who else died? Because I don't see anyone

Well I mean, surely scum has a factional night kill. And it seems like there might have been two different powers targeting SexyFish and Lifeline last night.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Is this an attempt at associating/consorting with BB? If you're going to direct your energy elsewhere then why try and placate him?

Because I want him to direct his energy elsewhere as well.

 

[Darryl]

SF and LL were both targeted last night. LL was just immune via innocent child.

Why are you and burb so adamant to shove this disinformation down our throats? How do we know it's not a neutral? Huh?

Because ohhhh, 'pineapple pizza flavor name's!! How do we know there isnt a neutral "Guy Who Got Wrong Delivery Pizza and has to give it away"?? Because that's my most likely conclusion, Coordinated Flavor Police

 

[Palmer_v1]

Since there isn't one on this page and I was just thinking about it.

Day 2 votes


blackbuzzard (1)
dr. worm 640
skyodin 708 (791)

swamped (4)
launchpadmcq 650
lifeline 657 (748)
isaacnukem 851 (855)
isaacnukem 855
lifeline 911 (1134)
darryl 1143
lifeline 1144

dr. worm (0)
palmer_v1 659 (778)

burbeting (0)
darryl 697 (1143)

wherearemahdragonz (0)
lifeline 748 (911)

blargonaut (1)
palmer_v1 778 (1015)
30yearsofhurt 1198
blargonaut 1204 (1218)

palmer_v1 (0)
blargonaut 849 (1019)

isaacnukem (0)
hey_monkey 858 (910)

oreomunsta (0)
blackbuzzard 872 (1071)

iaaacnukem (1)
wherearemahdragonz 885

acohrs (4)
hey_monkey 910
skyodin 1056
natiko 1225
blargonaut 1226 (1245)
swamped 1264

natiko (2)
acohrs 960
blargonaut 1245

stanleypalmtree (2)
palmer_v1 1018
burbeting 1130
lifeline 1134 (1144)

dr.worm (1)
blackbuzzard 1071

 

[Sophia]

Sorry about that, was in the middle of talking with a Gamemaster in FFXIV.

The vote count can be confirmed here

Majority is 10

Day 2 ends in:

 

[Palmer_v1]

Since there isn't one on this page and I was just thinking about it.

Day 2 votes

swamped (4)
launchpadmcq 650
lifeline 657 (748)
isaacnukem 851 (855)
isaacnukem 855
lifeline 911 (1134)
darryl 1143
lifeline 1144

wherearemahdragonz (0)
lifeline 748 (911)

palmer_v1 (0)
blargonaut 849 (1019)

isaacnukem (0)
hey_monkey 858 (910)

oreomunsta (0)
blackbuzzard 872 (1071)

iaaacnukem (1)
wherearemahdragonz 885

acohrs (4)
hey_monkey 910
skyodin 1056
natiko 1225
blargonaut 1226 (1245)
swamped 1264

I removed anyone I think is pretty safe today.

Seems like we have two main camps against swamped and acohrs. Swamped is for actual scum hunting reasons, wrong or not. Acohrs is because he's the token inactive that people latched onto first, I think. This is not be disapproving of it. Just mentioning it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I left the WAMD votes cause we know she's town, and we should note who was after her. With less than 24 hours left, I'm starting to look at where the votes rest from the people I think are town. More in a while

 

[Burbeting]

Why are you and burb so adamant to shove this disinformation down our throats? How do we know it's not a neutral? Huh?

Because ohhhh, 'pineapple pizza flavor name's!! How do we know there isnt a neutral "Guy Who Got Wrong Delivery Pizza and has to give it away"?? Because that's my most likely conclusion, Coordinated Flavor Police

I'm going for occam's razor that it's more likely we have a innocent child that is triggered by scum NK try, rather than a neutral that gives out pizzas that seem to trigger different sorts of effects based on who those pizzas are given.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Morning all

 

[Palmer_v1]

Swamped, how much of your vote on acohrs is selfish survival as opposed to you think they're scum or they're inactive.

 

[Darryl]

I'm going for occam's razor that it's more likely we have a innocent child that is triggered by scum NK try, rather than a neutral that gives out pizzas that seem to trigger different sorts of effects based on who those pizzas are given.

Ok so now lifeline was the target of scum NK and failed in your mind. Why now do scum allegedly have multiple killing roles? How do we know the second night kill (the one that went through) wasn't town or neutral?????? Where are your leaping assumptions coming from, Burb

 

[Burbeting]

Ok so now lifeline was the target of scum NK and failed in your mind. Why now do scum allegedly have multiple killing roles? How do we know the second night kill (the one that went through) wasn't town or neutral?????? Where are your leaping assumptions coming from, Burb

For now, my assumption is SexyFish was killed by neutral SK, and Lifeline was targeted by the Scum NK (due to the "pineapple pizza", which can mean other factions, but I'm going to assume it's something that hints on scum faction). So if we assume that we had neutral SK and a scum kill last night, that means there is two killing powers. Then if we add the assumed Scum Vig on Dragonz, that would be 3 killing powers against town already. In a 20 player game, where we now have 5 players that have claimed more or less vanilla-ish power (3 vanillas, 1 innocent child, 1 miller). Doesn't seem likely.

SexyFish might have been targeted by a Town killer, but that begets the question of why? What would have been the town motivation at that point. Nobody really scum read SF last time I checked, and their quietness was justified with IRL reasoning.

And frankly, I still don't understand what motivation a scum vig would have to kill Dragonz at this point. If we assume Swamped is scum, and would be flipped, then the town would definitely lynch Dragonz. It seemed likely she would have got lynched anyway at some point, she was definitely the one out of the three vanilla claims with most heat on her. And as you can already see from that vote count, killing Dragonz hasn't stopped heat on swamped, people were already discussing her before the end of D1 voting happened.

 

[hey_monkey]

I removed anyone I think is pretty safe today.

Seems like we have two main camps against swamped and acohrs. Swamped is for actual scum hunting reasons, wrong or not. Acohrs is because he's the token inactive that people latched onto first, I think. This is not be disapproving of it. Just mentioning it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I left the WAMD votes cause we know she's town, and we should note who was after her. With less than 24 hours left, I'm starting to look at where the votes rest from the people I think are town. More in a while

I'm on mobile so this ain't gonna be pretty but I recapped my acohrs observations here: http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=237750957

I think it's more than just inactive but I'm also not seeing acohrs as the grand scum master. Problem is we got a lot of people who are just relative blanks.

 

[BlackBuzzard]

Unvote

BlackBuzzard, you've directed a lot of what appears to be OMGUS at me. With under 24 hours left this phase and no movement toward lynching either of us, why don't we direct our attention elsewhere?

Smells like a trap. Though i do agree with your overall sentiment.

 

[Palmer_v1]

I forgot two people on my list above, cause they haven't had a vote on them, but I still think they're at risk of sudden bandwagons. 30yearsofhurt, and Nomadic sparks. For now though:

Vote: isaacnukem

Inactivity & voted against me. I think he's the scummiest of the inactive pool.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Faaaaark.

Apologies to Dragz for suspecting you on D1.
Surely our thoughts on how many vanillas we can have has to be thrown out, no?

 

[Dr. Worm]

LaunchpadMcQ, where do you think we should be going on D3 in the event that we lynch Swamped and she flips town?

 

[hey_monkey]

Palmer: my guess is Isaac will be replaced. Is that a preemptive strike against anyone who'd come in on that spot as well?

 

[Lifeline]

Nah, Issac won't be replaced. He already said he loves coasting and looking at his Day 1 behavior he'll come in last second to make couple posts about wanting someone's blood and reach his minimum that way again.

Issac is very obviously a neutral that has to lynch Palmer, or maybe a group of targets and not just Palmer.

I say we ignore him and not waste a lynch on him. Mafia and neutral with killing powers are much better targets.

 

[Lifeline]

Faaaaark.

Apologies to Dragz for suspecting you on D1.
Surely our thoughts on how many vanillas we can have has to be thrown out, no?

What are your thoughts on lynching Swamped?

 

[Palmer_v1]

Palmer: my guess is Isaac will be replaced. Is that a preemptive strike against anyone who'd come in on that spot as well?

I actually find replacements more suspicious. I'd forgotten that both bowlie and haly got replaced in anime and turned out to be scum, but their replacements for free passes.