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[Lifeline]

I think I need to hear from others as to why Swamped is a good lynch. It suddenly seems like a lot of people have just followed my lead without giving much reasoning, and that's very alarming.

This is why I moved my vote from Swamped. Something smells pretty scummy about this. Would like Acohrs to answer my question, he seemed to have started this new movement on Swamp. Along with you.

 

[Dr. Worm]

I'd like to take a closer look at Sawneeks/Nomadic, because they are very much coasting and making a bunch of non-committal statements.

Before, you said there would likely only be one scum hiding amongst the coasters. Why are you preparing to take on who you think is a coaster tomorrow?

I just want to point out, I did not go all in on WAMD. I would not be afraid of admitting it if I did, but I definitely did not commit to that or else my vote would have been on her. I take responsibility for my actions. Saying I did this is misconstruing my words in an alarmingly suspicious way.

You did cover for BlackBuzzard, and you did advocate lynching a vanilla claimant today, yes?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

.

I gotta be honest, I didn't even read that monkey post lol It was too list-y.

See, the problem is I think we're still in two different camps of thinking about what transpired N1, Burb. I would like to postpone this conversation until we get the results for N2, because I still very firmly believe that the neutral is benign and does not have killing abilities. I know I didn't get an answer on cabot's flavor death, but we will almost certainly have an answer tomorrow.

 

[Lifeline]

Important thing to mention: swamped spent a good part of Day 1 and 2 trying to lynch Acohrs. But Acohrs has largely ignored the effort and even though he was in the lead today when he came in to give his reads, he didn't talk about it.

He voted for swamped but his reasoning was "something" I said.

I think a better reasoning is that Swamped almost got Acohrs lynched twice.

 

[Blargonaut]

Good point, how do people feel about Palmer being the next vanilla test lynch after Swamped?

AND WHAT DO YOU CALL THIS:

Link is broken ;_;

.

 

[Lifeline]

VOTE: acohrs

AND WHAT DO YOU CALL THIS:



.

More proof of a secret pineapple cult?

 

[acohrs]

UNVOTE: Swamped

VOTE: acohrs

Is this the part where I now claim vanilla townie too?

Achors: you voted for Swamped saying some of what I said made sense. Can you point out what I said in particular that made you vote Swamped?

your posts 531 and 647, swamped's actions don't look like inconsistent town

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

This is why I moved my vote from Swamped. Something smells pretty scummy about this. Would like Acohrs to answer my question, he seemed to have started this new movement on Swamp. Along with you.

To explain my line of reasoning on Swamped, I came in and latched onto something that seemed to stand out to me. When I looked further into it, it started making sense to me, and you've already seen me break down Swamped's actions.

Before, you said there would likely only be one scum hiding amongst the coasters. Why are you preparing to take on who you think is a coaster tomorrow?



You did cover for BlackBuzzard, and you did advocate lynching a vanilla claimant today, yes?

Sawneeks/Verwhatever stands out to me for more than just coasting, but the best way to describe it is as a gut feel. I should have probably taken better notes, but I remember a post from before Sawneeks was replaced which was really weird to me. I don't think I'll have time to go back and dig it up now.

Can you point to where I covered for BB? I remember listing Swamped's actions as a low possibility of BB being scum, but that wasn't really covering for the player; I was looking specifically at Swamped's motivations, and since that was a "too obvious" move, I put it down as low. As for vanillas, yes, I've stated already before Swamped claimed that there was very likely someone in that pool lying about their role.

 

[acohrs]

sorry not 647, that was sawneeks, wrong quote number

 

[acohrs]

actually no I was right, it was 647, momentarily forgot about your 657 post

 

[Lifeline]

Acohrs: so you have no opinions on Swamped pushing your lynch bandwagon day 1 and day 2. You just voted for her because my posts?

 

[Dr. Worm]

Oh, I see, there was supposed to be a comma lol

I will say, BlackBuzzard's line of reasoning and questioning so far is reading like a misled townie. He's trying to use some weird reasoning to piece things together, that probably didn't come out of a discussion with mafia cohorts. When I think mafia, I think either coasting or self-assured and well-reasoned; this is neither of those.

I can be persuaded for a BB lynch, but like you said, some things don't quite add up with him.

You really didn't devote much attention to him, save for this.

 

[Natiko]

If we don't lynch her, mafia will keep her alive. If she's mafia, she'll stay alive anyway. Fuck me.

This can be said for so many players that it boggles my mind you'd say it out loud and direct it at only Swamped.

Would you guys agree with my assessments here?

Spoiler

except of course me being confirmed town

No, how am I at the same activity level as acorn? Lol

ok, check it, I know we're all panicking right now

Spoiler

please tell me it's not just me

so I'll be willing to argue with you guys about lynching me tomorrow, but right now, it's worth focusing on the vanillas.

Cause that doesn't read like someone stalling for time. You weren't too worried about three vanilla claims but suddenly this fourth rocks your world so hard?

So far, none of the claims or reveals were about pizza chains. Mine isn't. I know it's probably a stupid thing to latch on but I'm adding it as another reason that I'll keep my vote on Swamped. Also, claims to be another vanilla townie. That too.

One good point does not a crazy theory validate, likewise a crazy theory cannot destroy a fact, just twist it for its own use.

think swamped's vanilla claim is just trying to muddy the water with a last ditch attempt at survival

Vote: Swamped

I was ready to defend you, but I don't trust these claims at all. Too convenient.

I'm wondering if the mafia has a power that "vanillizes" a role PM upon lynch, in order to help them distance themselves from the deceased. Too OP?

I just want to see her flip now. 4 Vanilla in role madness is not role madness. If this isn't role madness, my claim D1 was definitely in error.

Vote: Swamped

Look at all these scummy ass votes just coming out! "Awe fuck another vanilla? Three was fine, but four? Naw we gotta lynch them."

Guys, I would love to bandwagon the moron, but now is not the time. If we suddenly turn on him, and he's just misguided town, we'll have wasted most of this day.

The same can be said if we lynch Swamped and they're vanilla town. Then it will just turn to you or BB the next day. It's garbage reasoning for a lynch.

If you don't think Swamped is mafia, launch should be your scum read. In that case voting launch now is your best shot at saving Swamp.

That seems like a stretch. Town is more likely to be wrong than scum on these matters.

 

[acohrs]

Acohrs: so you have no opinions on Swamped pushing your lynch bandwagon day 1 and day 2. You just voted for her because my posts?

pretty much yah

 

[Lifeline]

These are two posts that Acohrs cited:

How did you go from

Achors vote because he's inactive -> wanting to look into Burb -> Now thinking Dr. Worm is scum -> now back to achors lynch because he's inactive.

Nobody else gonna bring up how Sawneeks went from telling me she thought Dragonz and BB were town and then inexplicably voting for BB anyway and then changing their vote to Dragonz when it was looking like Dragonz was going to be lynched.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Cause that doesn't read like someone stalling for time. You weren't too worried about three vanilla claims but suddenly this fourth rocks your world so hard?

Look at all these scummy ass votes just coming out! "Awe fuck another vanilla? Three was fine, but four? Naw we gotta lynch them."

yes, that is obviously the narrative here

clearly, none of us wanted a vanilla lynch at all until now

you got it

good job

gold star

 

[Lifeline]

If Swamped is mafia, I don't understand how Scum team convinced her to claim vanilla? Like, what was the game plan here?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

You really didn't devote much attention to him, save for this.

You are correct. I don't have much concrete on him; I would have to search for it.

This can be said for so many players that it boggles my mind you'd say it out loud and direct it at only Swamped.


No, how am I at the same activity level as acorn? Lol


Cause that doesn't read like someone stalling for time. You weren't too worried about three vanilla claims but suddenly this fourth rocks your world so hard?








Look at all these scummy ass votes just coming out! "Awe fuck another vanilla? Three was fine, but four? Naw we gotta lynch them."


The same can be said if we lynch Swamped and they're vanilla town. Then it will just turn to you or BB the next day. It's garbage reasoning for a lynch.


That seems like a stretch. Town is more likely to be wrong than scum on these matters.

I didn't have my vote on any of those others. The second part of why it's fucking me up is because of the amount of people moving their vote to her now, suddenly. It's too convenient, and it's hard to tell which ones are not buying her claim and which ones are scum.

Also, not that it matters since they are my own notes, but I lowered his activity.

I am stalling for time, and very specifically for the reveal that we don't end up having two kills next night phase.


My specific problem to what you said at the end there is that why is this vanilla the one to lynch? People are looking at this chronologically, like "Swamped is the last one to claim ergo she is scum". That's nonsense. The pool has other players, and while Swamped's actions have been suspicious, that does not suddenly make the others innocent. People bandwagoning on Swamped suddenly is what's flipping me out the most. I was ok when I was chasing Swamped and I had detractors to my theory; this just doesn't feel right.

 

[Natiko]

yes, that is obviously the narrative here

clearly, none of us wanted a vanilla lynch at all until now

you got it

good job

gold star

So why go for Swamped instead of BB still? How does WAMD flipping vanilla not do anything to change your mind? You're trying to setup chain lynches on vanilla townies and it's scummy as hell.

 

[Palmer_v1]

If we're not really in a role madness game, how many vanilla should we expect? 4-5 scum leaves 15ish town. Take out another 1 for neutral, and that leaves us with like 14 town. In a normal game, maybe 1/3 of them are PRs but let's double it since this was called role madness. Now we have 9ish power roles and 5ish vanilla.

Is it possible? Yes. But I don't find it very plausible that we've hit nothing but Vanillas townies with out votes. Seriously, what are the odds of 4 of 5 lynch candidates being vanilla? And did I see acohrs claim vanilla too or was he joking?

 

[Dr. Worm]

I spent half the game trying to gin up support for a BB lynch and ended up with nothing to show for it

Are you telling me that I should stay on him the whole game regardless? I don't know what that accomplishes

 

[Palmer_v1]

If Swamped is mafia, I don't understand how Scum team convinced her to claim vanilla? Like, what was the game plan here?

Throw even more doubt towards me if they can clear her? Clear her teammate that has been bussing her all day? It doesn't make a lot of sense to me either, but either does role madness with multiple vanilla townies.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

ok, are we in agreement that we should be looking at this pool for today's lynch?

Palmer
Swamped
BlackBuzzard
acohrs

If we're not really in a role madness game, how many vanilla should we expect? 4-5 scum leaves 15ish town. Take out another 1 for neutral, and that leaves us with like 14 town. In a normal game, maybe 1/3 of them are PRs but let's double it since this was called role madness. Now we have 9ish power roles and 5ish vanilla.

Is it possible? Yes. But I don't find it very plausible that we've hit nothing but Vanillas townies with out votes. Seriously, what are the odds of 4 of 5 lynch candidates being vanilla? And did I see acohrs claim vanilla too or was he joking?

I'm thinking the same and the spreadsheet was a way of figuring out the distribution. These numbers don't make sense.

 

[hey_monkey]

From where I've played this isn't the case almost all the time, but if it's the case here, then I guess I'll remove that reasoning. Still holding on to the vanilla townie thing though.

If I had a vig shot for every vanilla townie claimant...

^^y'all see this? Just shoot every vanilla claim for reasons? k.

Would you guys agree with my assessments here?

Spoiler

except of course me being confirmed town

I find your activity assessments REALLY off and that frankly makes me question anything else you've got here. That's such a basic thing to not get wrong - so what else are you missing?

I'm probably not changing my vote off you, but no hard feelings i hope. I just have to know if this is really role madness or not, and you, BB, and myself are the only ones that can help settle it with deaths. By virtue of claiming last, yours seems the shadiest to me.

I haven't moved vote yet because I'm still taking all this in, but here'd I'd agree with you that another claim is shady and we need to know... but in the interest of low activity versus less low, I would be more inclined on the face to flip BB. But would that give us any connections or other people to look at?

More in a few.

 

[Palmer_v1]

ok, are we in agreement that we should be looking at this pool for today's lynch?

Palmer
Swamped
BlackBuzzard
acohrs



I'm thinking the same and the spreadsheet was a way of figuring out the distribution. These numbers don't make sense.

Add 30 and yourself, remove BB.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I find your activity assessments REALLY off and that frankly makes me question anything else you've got here. That's such a basic thing to not get wrong - so what else are you missing?

okaaaaaay. The point of posting it was so you guys could help me fill it in correctly, or else I would have kept it to myself.

Add 30 and yourself, remove BB.

???

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Myself I understand, but remove BB and add 30? huh?

 

[Dr. Worm]

LaunchpadMcQ​, if the list is for claims, how does activity factor in

You could argue vanilla activity any way you wanted

 

[Palmer_v1]

The more I think about it, actually, wamd is the only one who really reacted to my claim in a way that makes sense. I need to check what swamped said D1. We've covered BB previously but I'm starting to question his excuses about not knowing it was role madness, etc. fuck me I don't have time for this right now.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

LaunchpadMcQ​, if the list is for claims, how does activity factor in

You could argue vanilla activity any way you wanted

Sorry, it's for both and not necessarily how they interact.

 

[hey_monkey]

To explain my line of reasoning on Swamped, I came in and latched onto something that seemed to stand out to me. When I looked further into it, it started making sense to me, and you've already seen me break down Swamped's actions.

This sounds like a description of confirmation bias, if only because you just weren't really looking at anything else - by your own earlier admission, nothing else was standing out (when like, people were just falling down dead, we got everyone claiming vanilla, etc.).

I confess I'd like to see a Swamped flip. The problem is, I don't think it'll be scum. She's been on the defensive but there's been weird, repetitive pursuit of her.

She hasn't done a great deal of scum hunting and that's an issue. But still, something sticks in my craw about this.

(still catching up)

 

[Palmer_v1]

^^y'all see this? Just shoot every vanilla claim for reasons? k.



I find your activity assessments REALLY off and that frankly makes me question anything else you've got here. That's such a basic thing to not get wrong - so what else are you missing?


I haven't moved vote yet because I'm still taking all this in, but here'd I'd agree with you that another claim is shady and we need to know... but in the interest of low activity versus less low, I would be more inclined on the face to flip BB. But would that give us any connections or other people to look at?

More in a few.

If swamped was okay with my claim, why did wamd deserve a vote d1 for hers? Why wasn't BB deserving of it for the even more suspicious claim?

 

[Natiko]

Myself I understand, but remove BB and add 30? huh?

A few of us now have spoke about being fine with a 30 lynch. We just haven't shifted because it would dissolve the acorn votes and if 30 doesn't get much traction it'll just be a bunch of sketchy votes on Swamped that upon flip will tell us nothing.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

This sounds like a description of confirmation bias, if only because you just weren't really looking at anything else - by your own earlier admission, nothing else was standing out (when like, people were just falling down dead, we got everyone claiming vanilla, etc.).

I confess I'd like to see a Swamped flip. The problem is, I don't think it'll be scum. She's been on the defensive but there's been weird, repetitive pursuit of her.

She hasn't done a great deal of scum hunting and that's an issue. But still, something sticks in my craw about this.

(still catching up)

Maybe, but I am known for latching onto things in that way. Voting behavior at the end of a day is often very telling.

If swamped was okay with my claim, why did wamd deserve a vote d1 for hers? Why wasn't BB deserving of it for the even more suspicious claim?

Honestly, I think BB's looks more earnest than anyone else's. That one seemed like he was following your lead, while yours seemed like you were trying to outsmart the game, and the others were done under pressure.

 

[hey_monkey]

If swamped was okay with my claim, why did wamd deserve a vote d1 for hers? Why wasn't BB deserving of it for the even more suspicious claim?

The more I think about it, actually, wamd is the only one who really reacted to my claim in a way that makes sense. I need to check what swamped said D1. We've covered BB previously but I'm starting to question his excuses about not knowing it was role madness, etc. fuck me I don't have time for this right now.

I mean, I did try to shift to WAMD day 1 and I chased her inconsistencies a lot. I still think she was inconsistent, but now that she flipped, I think she was just plain ol' regular and not evaluating her phrasing too much. Hindsight. Which is why I'm hesitant about Swamped, too. I think there are connections there we might find if we flip her. I just don't know if she's the right flip today.

The more I think about it, actually, wamd is the only one who really reacted to my claim in a way that makes sense. I need to check what swamped said D1. We've covered BB previously but I'm starting to question his excuses about not knowing it was role madness, etc. fuck me I don't have time for this right now.

I question the shit out of BB's excuses. He did a lot of aww I'm just dumb but I don't believe it. I'd have to go back and look at what he did yesterday.

 

[Sophia]

I'm awake now. I should be here for the remainder of the day phase.

Day 2 votes

blackbuzzard (0)
dr. worm 640 (1477)
skyodin 708 (791)
lifeline 1318 (1673)

swamped (5)
launchpadmcq 650 (1670)
lifeline 657 (748)
isaacnukem 851 (855)
isaacnukem 855
lifeline 911 (1134)
darryl 1143
lifeline 1144 (1318)
blargonaut 1583 (1700)
acohrs 1600
dr. worm 1637
palmer_v1 1667

dr. worm (0)
palmer_v1 659 (778)

burbeting (0)
darryl 697 (1143)

wherearemahdragonz (0)
lifeline 748 (911)

blargonaut (0)
palmer_v1 778 (1015)
30yearsofhurt 1198 (1525)
blargonaut 1204 (1218)

palmer_v1 (0)
blargonaut 849 (1019)
launchpadmcq 1670 (1679)

isaacnukem (0)
hey_monkey 858 (910)
palmer_v1 1494 (1531)

oreomunsta (0)
blackbuzzard 872 (1071)

iaaacnukem (1)
wherearemahdragonz 885

acohrs (6)
hey_monkey 910
skyodin 1056
natiko 1225
blargonaut 1226 (1245)
swamped 1264 (1651)
stanleypalmtree 1598
blargonaut 1700
lifeline 1706

natiko (0)
acohrs 960 (1600)
blargonaut 1245 (1583)

stanleypalmtree (1)
palmer_v1 1018 (1494)
burbeting 1130
lifeline 1134 (1144)

dr.worm (1)
blackbuzzard 1071

30yearsofhate (0)
palmer_v1 1531 (1558)

30yearsofhurt (0)
palmer_v1 1558 (1667)

launchpadmcq (1)
swamped 1668
lifeline 1673 (1706)

An up to date vote count can be found here

Majority is currently 10

Day 2 ends in

 

[SkyOdin]

Man, I have no idea what is going on anymore. Either acohrs is the most inattentive townie ever to town, or he is executing a brilliant scum gambit. I don't know him well enough to know, so I am WIFOMing him hard.

I suppose I would still be okay lynching him either way.

On the other hand, I am now growing more suspicious of Swamped (and a few other peopke in this game, for that matter). I have been highly skeptical of all of the vanilla claims from the start. Dragonz was the only one I ever actually believed 100%. Furthermore, now that the Swamped lynch actually picks up steam, there is a sudden pushback against it? Strong resistance to a lynch can be a sign that scum is getting nervous.

 

[Palmer_v1]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Madness

How do people define "few" in a game of 20. I'm curious.

 

[hey_monkey]

Honestly, I think BB's looks more earnest than anyone else's. That one seemed like he was following your lead, while yours seemed like you were trying to outsmart the game, and the others were done under pressure.

The only thing I have in favor of earnestness is that it came at the same time as WAMD and well, we know she was right. And they were both near the block. So what's earnest or following-Palmer about a life-saving claim? Please explain.

So swamped and Acohrs are both on the lead for lynch today, but I don't know... I'm not 100% scum reading either of them.

Swamped has been lot more passive in this game than in the past, but that's just my gut. Her vote at the end of D1 strikes as suspicious, but that only really works if palmer v wamd v BB vote had a scum in it. And with WAMD flipped town, and me town readin palmer and BB both for now... I don't know. Her vanilla claim feels genuine too.

For acohrs, he has been lot more passive in this game than what he was in pop where we both were scum. And that Lifeline read post... would scum really have not known LL was confirmed town? That makes me put him into "he is just dumb town", same casket BB is in right now. But I do know Acohrs is not complete moron, so could he have been able to fabricate that LL post just to get towny points?

I think I'm team Burb here. But I've gotta dive into a re-read - I got interrupted a lot and y'all were busy and I want to make sure I'm not missing stuff.

 

[hey_monkey]

Furthermore, now that the Swamped lynch actually picks up steam, there is a sudden pushback against it? Strong resistance to a lynch can be a sign that scum is getting nervous.

I was not on board with 'let's make a huge deal out of one person's end of day chaos votes' in the first damn place but you're right, here we are - but one of those people who'd been pushing who backed off is Lifeline of all people, which is just weird, man. It's weird.

I'd really like to hear your extended thoughts if you have them. I value your analysis even though I don't always agree.

 

[SkyOdin]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Madness

How do people define "few" in a game of 20. I'm curious.

I would say that we have four or five max, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Dragonz was the only vanilla (yes, that means I am still skeptical of your claim, Palmer.)

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

The only thing I have in favor of earnestness is that it came at the same time as WAMD and well, we know she was right. And they were both near the block. So what's earnest or following-Palmer about a life-saving claim? Please explain.



I think I'm team Burb here. But I've gotta dive into a re-read - I got interrupted a lot and y'all were busy and I want to make sure I'm not missing stuff.

oops I did not see the timestamp on that.

I guess the way it looks to me is that he accepted his death, pretty much. You don't go and say "it's ok guys you're not losing much" with 3 minutes on the clock; if it were a gambit or defense, you'd have expected that a good deal of time before the deadline, no? At least enough time to actually get people to change their votes, right?

 

[Nomadic Sparks]

UNVOTE: Swamped

VOTE: acohrs

Fine i'll jump on this bandwagon lmao

 

[Dr. Worm]

Either implicate BB via Swamped or Swamped via BB

since the latter isn't happening, I want the former

 

[hey_monkey]

oops I did not see the timestamp on that.

I guess the way it looks to me is that he accepted his death, pretty much. You don't go and say "it's ok guys you're not losing much" with 3 minutes on the clock; if it were a gambit or defense, you'd have expected that a good deal of time before the deadline, no? At least enough time to actually get people to change their votes, right?

So Swamped can't miss things, but you can? Well, you were a replacement, I suppose.

I feel like I'm chasing you in today's developments but damned if you don't have the comments that flag for me as I catch up. Maybe that's your panicking, as you stated. Will you be on the chopping block tomorrow for all these weird little things?

All right, now I'm re-reading.

 

[SkyOdin]

I was not on board with 'let's make a huge deal out of one person's end of day chaos votes' in the first damn place but you're right, here we are - but one of those people who'd been pushing who backed off is Lifeline of all people, which is just weird, man. It's weird.

I'd really like to hear your extended thoughts if you have them. I value your analysis even though I don't always agree.

To be honest, I think town will get some interesting and useful information out of either lynch, so I think we are in a good place. The vote tallies are high enough that we don't have any risk of a dark horse lynch.

Now, I am mostly ignoring Lifeline's role in this. He is a confirmed townie, so I know his opinions are coming from the right place, even if I don't always agree with his judgement. On th other hand, I find Launchpad's sudden change in tune to be strange. I know what it is like to have doubts about a lynch, but town has to on some level be willing to be merciless in their pursuit of scum.

Also, I am not convinced by these vanilla claims.

 

[Burbeting]

I'd be up to lynching 30, Isaac or Stanley.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

So Swamped can't miss things, but you can? Well, you were a replacement, I suppose.

I feel like I'm chasing you in today's developments but damned if you don't have the comments that flag for me as I catch up. Maybe that's your panicking, as you stated. Will you be on the chopping block tomorrow for all these weird little things?

All right, now I'm re-reading.

My mistake hasn't had the same kinds of consequences yet...

 

[Blargonaut]

UNVOTE: acohrs

 

[SkyOdin]

I'd be up to lynching 30, Isaac or Stanley.

Not acohrs or Swamped? Since it is going to be one of thise two dying today.