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[CookedChocobo]

1. You can't really compare the revenue of any Star Wars movie with a Marvel movie since the Marvel movies were released in a time where big blockbuster movies make a hell of a lot more money than they used to.

2. You can't really say anything about the quality of the new SW movies based on the prequels. The new movies have different producers, different writers, different directors, different everything.

To your no.1 point, ever heard of Titanic?! Geez, I wonder when that movie came out.

To your 2nd point, a lot of people are betting against a RECENT great track record with movie quality (Marvel) which makes no sense to me. Age of Ultron is guaranteed to be good at least, Star Wars 7 is not.

 

[J.T]

Avengers will make more money easily.

 

[kswiston]

I wanted to mention this in a thread from a week or so back, but I think one of the more impressive (recent) box office feats was Avatar's performance in China. By the end of 2009, the film 2012 was the highest grossing film ever in China with $68M (followed closely by Transformers 2 at $65M). Avatar grossed $204M a few months later.

 

[Jigorath]

Age of Ultron. The last Star Wars film made $848m back in 05. Yes I know we've had 10 years of inflation as well as 3D but I don't think it'll be enough to beat Avengers. It might win Domestically but I think people are overestimating Star Wars' overseas appeal.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

If the Avengers bump for phase 2 holds true it will clear Titanic easily (pre re-release), post re-release will be close though.

lol

I'll be surprised if Avengers 2 clears the first film.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Age of Ultron. The last Star Wars film made $848m back in 05. Yes I know we've had 10 years of inflation as well as 3D but I don't think it'll be enough to beat Avengers. It might win Domestically but I think people are overestimating Star Wars' overseas appeal.

That's the real question there, isn't it: Can Lucasfilm sell Star Wars to an overseas market in an effective manner?

I think they can. I think they'll full court press the living SHIT out of that picture, especially considering how much larger overseas markets have grown, not just since 2005, but since 2010.

I get the sense Iger really wants this Lucasfilm purchase to have completely paid for itself by the time this movie hits blu-ray. Not that he needs it to do so in order to be considered a success - but just for the bragging rights. A worldwide box-office of 1.5 to 1.7 billion, plus whatever the merchandising is going to be (I think 2 bil isn't out of the question there) will make that pretty damned close.

 

[Malyse]

Bravo sir.

 

[Diprosalic]

lol

I'll be surprised if Avengers 2 clears the first film.

there's no reason that it won't make more than the first one.

 

[Choppasmith]

Money-wise, has to be Star Wars. The hype for all the OT-elements should easily offset any damage the prequels did to the brand. The first photo we get of Harrison Ford in-costume as Han Solo will erase the entire PT from everyone's minds.

Marvel's big, but Star Wars is fucking Star Wars.

Exactly how I feel and I'm a big MCU fan. I could see Avengers being the better reviewed movie, but box office money? It's Star Wars.

 

[Randam]

I really, really dislike the prequels, but even they are better than the avengers imo.

 

[Aiii]

What's the bigger brand, Avengers or Star Wars?

The answer is Star Wars is the bigger brand, worldwide.

Will Star Wars have more hype around it? Will more people want to see it than another superhero movie (lets remember they got two or three Marvel flicks a year every year since Iron Man released), probably, yeah.

All in all, Star Wars wins this one.

Will most people just end up seeing both? Of course.

 

[Valnen]

I believe Han Solo has far more fans than Tony Stark.

Spoiler

Too bad he'll probably die. =(

I feel silly spoiler tagging a wild guess, but there you go.

 

[Kunan]

AoU, and quite easily.

Star Wars is immensely popular, but it isn't guaranteed box office gold around the world. In fact, they actually don't perform that well, only a single Star Wars ever crossed a billion worldwide or 400 mill domestic and that was Episode 1, for obvious reasons, the hype was un-real.

If you look at the top of the box office of all time, 30% is domestic, 70% worldwide. For almost all the Star Wars movies, it is much closer to being close to 50-50.

Avengers has worldwide mass appeal, Star Wars doesn't, if you look at box office numbers.

The big international explosion was post Star Wars and they also did not have 3D inflating numbers. Phantom Menace made about a billion forever ago. It cannot be stated enough how much bigger and reliable the international box office is these days.

 

[kswiston]

lol

I'll be surprised if Avengers 2 clears the first film.

Domestically, probably not, but it will be hard to miss that mark worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Avengers was the highest grossing superhero film ever in China with $84M back in 2012. This year, Amazing Spider-man 2 was the lowest grossing superhero film in China with $94M. Avengers 2 is going to clear $150M in China. I don't think $200M is impossible either. That makes up for any domestic loss. The rest of Asia and Latin America will offset European drops if there are any.

The big international explosion was post Star Wars and they also did not have 3D inflating numbers. Phantom Menace made about a billion in the 90s.

The counterpoint to that of course is the fact that the Harry Potter films and Lord of the Rings films did as well in the same time frame. The Hobbit didn't automatically clear $2B due to legacy + 3D. That said, I think Star Wars has a stronger base, and Disney will be gunning hard. If the film is good, it will blow (non-Cameron) things up. If it is mediocre, then we're probably looking at $1-1.25B.

 

[Loke13]

Avengers will disappoint critically and will perform below the first movie

Star Wars will get mixed reviews, but will perform over the prequels but not over 1.3 Bil

And this is based on...?

 

[TacticalFox88]

December though is fucking bizarre ass release date? Why?

 

[AdventureRacing]

I feel like the release date of star wars gives it a huge upper hand, that plus having it's first proper trailer attached to AoU will also give it an advantage.

To your no.1 point, ever heard of Titanic?! Geez, I wonder when that movie came out.

I really don't understand why you guys just keep throwing titanic out there as if it proves anything. No one is saying that a movie literally couldn't make that sort of money back in 1999, just that it was way harder back then than it is now. The fact that titanic made a shitload of money when it released doesn't change that, it just shows how much of a monster titanic was.

Look how many movies used to make 1 billion dollars, it was incredibly rare. Nowadays we have movies hitting that mark on a regular basis. It's not just about inflation but also the rise of 3D and the huge explosion in the international market.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Age of Ultron. The last Star Wars film made $848m back in 05. Yes I know we've had 10 years of inflation as well as 3D but I don't think it'll be enough to beat Avengers. It might win Domestically but I think people are overestimating Star Wars' overseas appeal.

Overseas wasn't as big either when Star Wars last was released. SW has a good chance of beating out the Avengers

December though is fucking bizarre ass release date? Why?

Holidays are huge business time for movies, the summer already crowded as heck, moving it to December pretty much has them claiming the box office during that period ahead of time.

 

[Pathos]

star wars

 

[Cheebo]

December though is fucking bizarre ass release date? Why?

Avatar says hello. Fantasy blockbusters tend to come out around December too. Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter for example.

 

[BLACKLAC]

I really don't understand why you guys just keep throwing titanic out there as if it proves anything.

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

It's hard to look past that (it will still do huge numbers).

 

[Vincent Alexander]

To your 2nd point, a lot of people are betting against a RECENT great track record with movie quality (Marvel) which makes no sense to me. Age of Ultron is guaranteed to be good at least, Star Wars 7 is not.

Why is Age of Ultron guaranteed to be good? Hell, I hardly liked the first one.

 

[Aiii]

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

It's hard to look past that (it will still do huge numbers).

Titanic ran in theaters for almost a year, that's how succesful that movie was. You're underselling Titanic.

 

[a916]

Star Wars has an uphill battle with the bad taste left with the prequels whereas Marvel can throw out a dance sequence as the final battle and people will lap it up like hungry dogs...

Star Wars has to do more to overcome whereas Marvel has less of a climb and just kind of has to deliver what it has before.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

It's hard to look past that (it will still do huge numbers).

How was there prequel stink when no one saw ep1 yet? Ep 2 and 3 saw the prequel stink kick in with their declining numbers. Also again, international market was much smaller back when Ep 1 came out, it's consistently grown since.

The big blockbusters are killing it left and right nowadays in large part to the inflation of the international markets.

 

[Cheebo]

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

What does Titanic have to do with anything? We are comparing Avengers and Star Wars. Titanic adjusted to todays market would run circles around Avengers, Star Wars, just about anything. Phantom Menace in todays market dwarfs what Avengers did, easily.

And lol at the suggestion the international market was somehow better in 1999 than 1997. The massive growth in the worldwide box-office in places like Eastern Europe and Asia which have seen the most growth and lead to the constant stream of billion dollar films was a decade away.

 

[Ovek]

StarWars the hype will be off the charts for this one. I can only imagine how many hits a trailer would get if Luke or Solo appears.

 

[krameriffic]

I believe Han Solo has far more fans than Tony Stark.

It's also been 30 years since he was Han Solo, and Harrison Ford has become a disappointingly dour and boring actor in his later years. He was passable reprising Indy, but even that was 7 years ago. People expecting dashing, kickass Han Solo will be disappointed when they realize that he's turned into their grandpa.

 

[BLACKLAC]

How was there prequel stink when no one saw ep1 yet? Ep 2 and 3 saw the prequel stink kick in with their declining numbers. Also again, international market was much smaller back when Ep 1 came out, it's consistently grown since.

? I think you misread my post. There was no prequel stink for Episode 1, there is for VII.

The big blockbusters are killing it left and right nowadays in large part to the inflation of the international markets.

Agreed. which is why I see it potentially hitting 1.2 billion.

What does Titanic have to do with anything? We are comparing Avengers and Star Wars.

Because despite the huge popularity of Star Wars fans keep going on about, the huge legacy in cinema. It couldn't come close to a movie that came out years before.

Meanwhile Marvel drops 1.5 on it's first Avengers outing.. With a clear boost effect on their solo outings.

 

[KillerMan91]

As a finn it's always weird to see just how popular Avengers was elsewhere and people talking about how it has far more international appeal compared to something like Star Wars (very well might be true overall, I don't deny that). Here Phantom Menace back in 1999 made more than 2.5 times more money than Avengers couple of years ago and this doesn't even take into account inflation and 3D. Star Wars will absolutely destroy Avengers here (not that it matters much as we are tiny market lol). Maybe because of my cultural bias (and because I am getting fricking tired of superhero movies) I am gonna say that Star Wars is gonna make more money also worldwide. Disney wins in any case lol.

 

[Thug Waffle]

I think Star Wars will make more money if it's even almost as good as Avengers. And personally, I think it'll be way better than Avengers.

 

[Cheebo]

? I think you misread my post. There was no prequel stink for Episode 1, there is for VII.



Agreed. which is why I see it potentially hitting 1.2 billion.

But 1.2 billion is around what what Episode III did adjusted for todays market. You are saying that the audience won't be a lot bigger than it was for Episode III?

 

[waypoetic]

Star Wars on all.

 

[Kunan]

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

It's hard to look past that (it will still do huge numbers).

It does. Titanic was, and still is, a massive success outside the realm of most blockbusters. Meanwhile, billion dollar movies are way more common these days despite less tickets being sold in general. I think it's hard to compare one monolith to a trend where every other year a batman or pirates movie passes a billion and tons of movies get around 800 every year.

I certainly think it's going to be a race though between the two films.

 

[Schweinehund]

Star Wars.

Unsure critically though. I don't think it's unlikely for star wars to be better if avengers 2 is similar in quality to avengers 1.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

Ultron. Prequels damaged the brand.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Star Wars will destroy Ultron.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink.

Not only are you probably overestimating the negative effects of "prequel stink" in regards to a direct sequel to Return of the Jedi, but the marketing campaign for The Force Awakens hasn't even really begun.

The Phantom Menace hype didn't just manifest itself. It was manufactured to an extent. Sure, it became a self-sustaining engine after awhile, but there were still ads, merch, commercials, media attention both bought and given for free -

Less than a minute of footage total became the most watched trailer in the history of ever in less than a month. The marketing campaign hasn't even begun in earnest, yet.

It remains to be seen whether this movie is going to have more presence of mind and audience awareness than Phantom Menace did.

 

[Vincent Alexander]

Ultron. Prequels damaged the brand.

Nothing will hurt the Star Wars brand to that magnitude.

 

[AdventureRacing]

It's easy to say that ep7 will have less hype than the phantom menace now but lets wait until at least the first trailer releases (attached to AoU of all things).

Because people keep throwing around higher ticket prices, 3-D and a bigger international market as if it means anything to Star Wars.

Episode 1, with more hype behind it (way more) and no prequel stink. With a bigger international market than Titanic and higher ticket prices. Didn't come close.

It's hard to look past that (it will still do huge numbers).

Again that doesn't prove anything. All that shows is that titanic was fucking insanely popular, it doesn't change the fact that movies are making much more at the box office nowadays. In terms of ticket sales i'm not even sure that avatar would compare all that well to titanic, that movie was just insane in terms of popularity.

Go look up the list of the most successful blockbusters ever released and then look at their release dates. We've even had something like alice in wonderland make a billion dollars. The simple fact is that the market has changed and shouting 'titanic' over and over doesn't change that.

 

[inm8num2]

The most important thing for SW will be how people connect with the new characters (Boyega, Ridley, Driver, Isaac, Gleeson). Marvel has been extremely successful with developing its leads (heroes and villains) and making them quite likable. That's a huge part of the appeal of an ensemble movie like Avengers, on top of the spectacle and whatnot.

SW will have to absolutely nail it on all fronts (story, characters, action, etc.) to compete in terms of box office. Being another SW movie that happens to be better than the prequels won't be enough.

Either way both movies are going to be great, entertain audiences, and make Iger a happy man.

 

[Beelzebufo]

I would see Star Wars first if only because it's been so long.

 

[Oersted]

Please correct me...

It feels like the newest Avengers is mainly sold (besides being part of the MCU) on the new enemy hook. As in Ultron. So far, the MCU films had quite lacklustre enemies, pretty much noone cared about. Is Ultron any better? Serious question, I got no clue.

 

[BLACKLAC]

But 1.2 billion is around what what Episode III did adjusted for todays market. You are saying that the audience won't be a lot bigger than it was for Episode III?

Jurassic Park would be over 1.6

 

[Vincent Alexander]

Please correct me...

It feels like the newest Avengers is mainly sold (besides being part of the MCU) on the new enemy hook. As in Ultron. So far, the MCU films had quite lacklustre enemies, pretty much noone cared about. Is Ultron any better? Serious question, I got no clue.

The reality is that most villains in the MCU films are awesome outside the MCU films. It's what happens to them when they hit the screen that wrecks them. So yes, Ultron is an awesome villain. And he looks good in the trailer. But who knows. With Marvel's track record, it wouldn't surprise me to see him turn to a pile of shit.

 

[Lynd7]

Star Wars has a chance to be massive for at least 7 I think. People know Lucas isn't involved and therefore are probably more eager to check it out.

 

[Matt_]

Avengers bigger in overseas gross, Star Wars bigger domestically with Star Wars being the better film

Still more excited for Jurassic World though, and all three will clear 1 billion worldwide, with Avengers > Star Wars >>> Jurassic Park. None will touch 2 Bil (I'd say 1.8, 1.6 and 1.2)

Although the change in the currency market might not help things

 

[Tobor]

Will either of these pleb movies reach the $2billion club?

Both will be better movies.

 

[kmax]

The Force Awakens will be the better movie
Age of Ultron will have the higher imdb score.

 

[Lashley]

Avengers will make more money IMO, more kids/families will be interested.

I also think it'll be the better movie.

Pumped for Star Wars though.