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Place Your Bets: Random Next-Gen Factors

I

imastalker co.

Banned
so yeah, im just gonna throw out some random factors that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are banking on. let us know why it will, or won't take off.

Microsoft
720p standard
Multiple SKU
Microtransaction
Early / Worldwide Launch
Rare
Non-Gamers


Sony
Blu-ray
Less emphasis on online(?)
Cell


Nintendo
Controller
Lower Price
No HD Support
New Ideas
Worldwide Launch
Non-Gamers

and another question to think about, do you think Sony will push as many hard drives as Microsoft?
 
phantomile co. said:
so yeah, im just gonna throw out some random factors that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are banking on. let us know why it will, or won't take off.

Microsoft
720p standard
Multiple SKU
Microtransaction
Early / Worldwide Launch
Rare
Non-Gamers


Sony
720p+ standard
Blu-ray
"Premium Alternative" strategy - (2 HDMI, many USB ports, supports many storage standards)
Less emphasis on online(?)


Nintendo
Controller
Lower Price
No HD Support
New Ideas
Worldwide Launch
Non-Gamers

and another question to think about, do you think Sony will push as many hard drives as Microsoft?
Click to expand...

And no, Sony will push no where near as many drives as Microsoft unless they surprise us all and include a HDD in the base PS3 unit. But that's a :lol
 
Higher console and game prices are a risk for both Sony and Microsoft next gen. As many analysts have noted, consumer adoption for XB360/PS3 may be far slower than in previous gens, and price is no small factor.

With game prices high, I'm willing to bet the used market will explode next gen in the U.S. (similar to the Japanese market right now), as well as rental programs such as Gamefly, which will definitely cut into publishers' profits.

It's easy to underestimate the price concern, seeing as most gamers on this board would have no qualms dropping $400 on a next-gen console. But at least initially, little Timmy's gonna have a hard sell trying to convince his parents that the "HD era" is worth it =)
 
phantomile co. said:
Sony
Blu-ray
i can't think of any other other risks Sony is taking aside from financial stuff. they seem to have covered their asses pretty well.
Click to expand...
How about CELL? Also, if MS and Nintendo both do a worldwide launch, I see no reason why Sony shouldn't attempt one.
 
well, i didn't really consider Cell since it isn't just their gaming division banking on it. seems like a good chunk of Sony has high hopes for it.
 
SolidSnakex said:
Massive systems shortages worldwide?
Click to expand...
You say that as if they don't have a shortage in each region when they launch separately :P
What's the difference between 1M PS3s in Japan for March / 1M in US for June / 1M in EU for Sept and 3 million worldwide in Sept? (apart from the time lag, of course)
 
My gut feeling is Nintendo is going to come up with some kind of massive new franchise and its going to be born out of the Revolution and that franchise (not Mario/Zelda) will carry the console and help it outsell the GameCube by a considerable amount. I think Nintendogs are Brain Training are just tremors ... the real earthquake will come in the next few years.

Secondly, I think Sony is going to place a ton of emphasis on FPS shooters on the PS3 this gen. Look for them to be very active in trying to get a "Halo-killer".

Blu-Ray will help Sony more than people think.

I also think publisher's will gang up and try to halt programs like GameFly.

MS won't come close to beating Sony worldwide, but will have almost equal marketshare to Sony in North America (ala SNES-Genesis, with Sony being Nintendo). Revolution will bring in more female players and other people who are tired/fed up with current games with their Apple-esque style.
 
Microsoft
720p standard- probably will by the end of the generation. The difference will probably be noticeable
Multiple SKU- Hope it dies.
Microtransaction- Ditto
Early / Worldwide Launch- Not if there are shortages
Rare- Rise from the ashes
Non-Gamers- bitch, please


Sony
Blu-ray- Might be a big big thing if they make it the Next Big Thing. People might buy them just for BRD play, but it might not become a huge factor until a couple years later.


Nintendo
Controller- I dunno. Would have to see some games first. I think it'll turn more people off than get them interested.
Lower Price- Probably won't help much. Didn't help DC or GC this gen.
No HD Support- I'm guessing this is the thing that'll be played up the most. Kinda like No Online and No CDs.
New Ideas- Would have to see them first.
Worldwide Launch- Too early to tell. Doubt there'll be shortages
Non-Gamers- Might help in Japan a little, can't see it taking off like they want in the US. I think the virtual console might be the biggest draw.
 
Microsofts multiple SKU will die 6 months after launch. Quote me bitches. The 399 package with see a nice price drop around April in the US and March in Japan.
 
Jonnyram said:
You say that as if they don't have a shortage in each region when they launch separately :P
What's the difference between 1M PS3s in Japan for March / 1M in US for June / 1M in EU for Sept and 3 million worldwide in Sept? (apart from the time lag, of course)
Click to expand...
1 Million is still a great launch. i think if the games are ready, and they're sitting on a million consoles, get them out there. if you're prepared, why give Microsoft any extra time? unless they plan on busting out some Mario 3 style hysteria... no wait, that's a bit much, make it turbo hype. i think Sony should get out there, so long as they're ready.

the world wide launch appears like it should be a tricky thing. it seems like Microsoft isn't gonna get as many out there as they'd like, perhaps it's because the launch appears to be rushed. but i wouldn't be suprised if Nintendo aimed for simlar numbers if they pull off a world wide launch. i think if they pull it off, they're gonna try to ship 1-1.5 million on day one.
 
I really think Sony could probably sell 1 million consoles in every territory right off the bat if all they had were some Blu-Ray movies and PS2 backward compatibility going for them.
 
"well, i didn't really consider Cell since it isn't just their gaming division banking on it. seems like a good chunk of Sony has high hopes for it."
Click to expand...
C:\Sad bastard mode (C) Jett > which other cell utilizing product is expected to ship what could end up being over 200 million units (if we expect PS brand growth to be in line with PS1->PS2 growth) ?

I dunno, you'd have to put Cell (or at least a large portion of the cost) in the Risk factor in terms of costs to the overal project.
 
Jonnyram said:
You say that as if they don't have a shortage in each region when they launch separately :P
What's the difference between 1M PS3s in Japan for March / 1M in US for June / 1M in EU for Sept and 3 million worldwide in Sept? (apart from the time lag, of course)
Click to expand...

I'm just saying Sony had difficulties keeping up with the demand for the PS2 in every territory they released it in for awhile after launch. I'd think they'd want a few months between each launch or something similar to what they did witht he PS2. They're going to have shortages no matter what but there's no reason to do a WW launch and make it that bad.
 
phantomile co. said:
Sony
Blu-ray
i can't think of any other other risks Sony is taking aside from financial stuff. they seem to have covered their asses pretty well.
Click to expand...

<Sony> You will need to sell a kidney to afford the PS3
 
The only concern I think Sony should have is not waiting too long to launch in the US.

They should definitely make the US-launch the no.1 priority.

They could launch first in Japan, but they should definitely think about hording units for the US launch and launching around August.

I think waiting until October/November would actually be too long for the US market.
 
Well what are the pros of a worldwide launch? You make it sound as if there is no reason to do it and the only thing that could come of it is a hardware shortage? If that's true, why are MS and Nintendo aiming for global launches?

Isn't it fair to say if they can only cope with demand for one region (and they can't even do that, according to some of these expectations), they are launching too soon? Regardless of staggering, once the machine is out in all three regions they have the same demand issues. I hardly see how 3-6 months difference will make this smoother. They just don't like the logistics - that's my personal view. But, I'm also happy if they can't make it, because us lucky Japan residents can make a bob or two exporting to you guys ;)
 
Jonnyram said:
You make it sound as if there is no reason to do it and the only thing that could come of it is a hardware shortage? If that's true, why are MS and Nintendo aiming for global launches?
Click to expand...
im not saying it's a bad thing. i just think, that due to the brand name, and other Sony related circumstances, it would be quite harder for them to pull off a worldwide launch due to demand.

i wouldn't be suprised if Sony went for the $299 sweet spot in the states, did a world wide launch, and just release low amounts of shipments, just to have the system out there. sorta like what they with the PSP. not take that big hit all at once, and just take it little by little.
 
Jewbacca said:
Microsofts multiple SKU will die 6 months after launch. Quote me bitches. The 399 package with see a nice price drop around April in the US and March in Japan.
Click to expand...

Multiple SKU's will die depending upon the launch price/date of the PS3.
 
Jonnyram said:
But, I'm also happy if they can't make it, because us lucky Japan residents can make a bob or two exporting to you guys ;)
Click to expand...
Word. The PSP Japan launch is gonna put my kids through college. :D
 
I guess Sony could sell the PS3 for $299 in North America and then charge closer to $400 for Japan/Europe.

That's certainly not an impossibility.

I think Nintendo is going/trying for a simultaneous launch beacause they're likely to launch last and can't afford to space out their release schedule or they'll lose even more precious time in getting into the ring. They really can't afford to miss Christmas/holiday/Easterton in any territory.

Ditto for MS, a simultaneous launch is obviously important to them because they need to sell as many 360s before PS3 hit.
 
Add Cell to the PS3. It's the key to winning the console wars, afterall. :lol
They're supposed to use it in other systems/devices too.
 
i remember reading somewhere about a new Sony pricing strategy - i just can't remember where i read it.

Rather than do the initial high-->mid-->Low routine of slashing costs, they'd accelerate early adoption of hardware by putting the machine out at an average cost right from the start.

e.g.

$400 for 12 months -> $300 for 12 months --> $200 for 12 months

=

$300 for 12 months -> $300 for 12 months --> $300 for 12 months

That's oversimplifying it a lot obviously, but the idea was that rather than charge a premium and cut the price, they'd stick to one price for much longer but the advantage would be that the initial uptake is greater. The option to cut the price down is still there later on, and you can add value later on by adding more peripheral goodies (see Giga-pack) rather tahn cutting the base cost.

Given that the one of the main pushes of the PS3 is going to be the Bluray agenda, then i'm starting to think this might be the plan for the PS3.
 
:Microsoft:

Xbox Live (Arcade, Community, Microtransactions)
High Definition Media
Connectivity

:Nintendo:

Virtual Arcade
Controller
Affordability

:Sony:

High Definition Media
Movie Budget Games
Connectivity (believe it or not)
 
well, as i said , that simplifies it a lot. The issue then is that you are getting burnt earlier on so they would have to 1) sell a hell of lot of games 2) a hell of a lot of movies 3) limit the number of units.

Theres issues with 1 and 2 and 3!

The X360 would , i'd expect, respond to a lower price with a cut.

I don't expect the PS3 to be $300 by the way, i think it'll be 39,800 at least.
If it's a global launch, it'll be $349/$399 depending which way the $ vs Y swings.

then again, i don't think they'll hit launch until Aug-sept. so what do i know? :D
 
KingJ2002 said:
:Microsoft:

Xbox Live
High Definition Media
Microtransactions

:Nintendo:

Virtual Arcade
Controller
Affordability

:Sony:

High Definition Media
Movie Budget Games
Connectivity (believe it or not)
Click to expand...


Should add Virtual Arcade to the Microsoft list too. ;)
 
Microsoft
720p standard - won't be a big deal for a while
Multiple SKU - might help sales a little bit
Microtransaction - could become a huge thing
Early / Worldwide Launch - will help a bit
Rare - will surprise us all
Non-Gamers - not happening on this console


Sony
Blu-ray - way too early for this
Less emphasis on online(?) - dunno, they seem like they wanna do better in it
Cell - makes it the most powerful console, and a major selling point


Nintendo
Controller - could be a hit or miss, need to see the games
Lower Price - not that big of a deal, but will help a little bit
No HD Support - wont be a big deal for a while
New Ideas - could create new genres that become huge and only on Rev
Worldwide Launch - will help a bit
Non-Gamers - the only home console i see that will cater to them, may increase sales a lot if advertised right
 
Jonnyram said:
Well what are the pros of a worldwide launch? You make it sound as if there is no reason to do it and the only thing that could come of it is a hardware shortage? If that's true, why are MS and Nintendo aiming for global launches?
Click to expand...

Ofcourse there are pros, but the situation is different for MS, Nintendo and Sony. Take MS, if they were to do a typical sysem launc then that'd likely mean Japan would get the 360 last. Do you really think they'd want the 360 launching anywhere near the PS3 in Japan? With Sony I think they'd going to want to have some kind of flow once they've got the system on the market and if they were to launch WW they'd basically slam into a brick wall for months as far as any sort of flow goes.
 
speaking of the virtual systems, i think so long as they don't get greedy, they can have huge hits on their hands. epecially Nintendo. if they released an SD card adaptor for DS/GBA, or let you send the games to the DS wirelessly, and charged dirt cheap prices for the games, they could seriously end up with something seen as the itunes of videogames. that could be big for Nintendo. especially with a solid micro price drop.
 
krypt0nian said:
Should add Virtual Arcade to the Microsoft list too. ;)
Click to expand...

edited :D

I also disagree with the "No HD" on nintendo's part.... they may be downplaying the importance (like online play)... but i believe it will be an option (like online play).

Remember that miyamoto himself said the revolution will at least do 480p and will graphically be on par with it's competitors... so the option to have gamers use 720p shouldnt be considered as far-fetched.

*puts two cents on the table*
 
Microsoft
720p standard - This will help, alot. Everyone has dreams of getting a raise.
Multiple SKU - Will hurt as long as the "cheap" SKU is above $200. Will Microsoft ever sell a console at $99??
Microtransaction - I don't know what this is.
Early / Worldwide Launch - Help a little bit in Europe.
Rare - This can only hurt.
Non-Gamers - Non-gamers aren't onterested in Microsoft's Xtreme marketing image.


Sony
Blu-ray - Only helps if developers can't port thier 25GB games to Revolution/360
Less emphasis on online(?) - ?
Cell - - As much good as the "emotion engine" did for them.


Nintendo
Controller - Absolutely huge. If the marketing team can hammer home this "product differential" when selling the console, then Nintendo can take 1st. That's the biggest problem of the consoles, all of them. They are just too similar to each other.
Lower Price - How lower?
No HD Support - This can only hurt. It simply SUCKS!
New Ideas - Sure.
Worldwide Launch - This will help alot in Japan, who often feel embarrassed at getting Nintendo launches first.
Non-Gamers - I actiually believe I can get my mother playign games with this thing... somethign I quickly gave up on with the Gamecube. She just couldn't figure out what button to push.
 
Next gen bet?

- declining software sales(and its already happening even in NA)
- declining console ownership

Why I see it this way? Well when you think about, people each and everyday is finding better stuff to do with thier money. Add the increase and scarcity of gas, then people are going to cut out the most expensive hobby.

I'll say this, but I don't see the next gen being no where like it was this cycle. If anything, stuff is really going to start declining with the next cycle of consoles.
 
DCharlie said:
i remember reading somewhere about a new Sony pricing strategy - i just can't remember where i read it.

Rather than do the initial high-->mid-->Low routine of slashing costs, they'd accelerate early adoption of hardware by putting the machine out at an average cost right from the start.

e.g.

$400 for 12 months -> $300 for 12 months --> $200 for 12 months

=

$300 for 12 months -> $300 for 12 months --> $300 for 12 months

That's oversimplifying it a lot obviously, but the idea was that rather than charge a premium and cut the price, they'd stick to one price for much longer but the advantage would be that the initial uptake is greater. The option to cut the price down is still there later on, and you can add value later on by adding more peripheral goodies (see Giga-pack) rather tahn cutting the base cost.

Given that the one of the main pushes of the PS3 is going to be the Bluray agenda, then i'm starting to think this might be the plan for the PS3.
Click to expand...


Lovely. But then Sony need to produce more machines early in the cycle, when they are most expensive. And they need to persuade the late cycle adopters that its still worth $300 when they have only ever paid $200.

Not sure it balances out
 
"Lovely. But then Sony need to produce more machines early in the cycle, when they are most expensive. And they need to persuade the late cycle adopters that its still worth $300 when they have only ever paid $200.

Not sure it balances out"
Click to expand...

indeed - that's why i mentioned that it was simplified.

I'll dig around and see if i can find the document
 
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