Mass_Pincup
Banned
There's also Disgaea 5 which is PS4 exclusive, not sure it will help much though.
PlayStation 4 hits 20.2 million units sold worldwide (high sodium content warning)
- Thread starter JehutyRunner
- Start date
There's also Disgaea 5 which is PS4 exclusive, not sure it will help much though.
Sure, we can also count games like Hyperdimension Neptunia V II or Inferno Climber, but those aren't the most significant of releases.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I didn't forget KHIII. I just wasn't sure if it had a large following in Japan. Same for Bloodborne and the Souls series.
I'll assume this post is directed at me despite me saying none of the above.
Hmmm. Not a fan of that view. The Wii was a console, therefore it should count as a gaming console. Just because it sold well and to a "casual" audience doesn't mean that it shouldn't be counted. Many Wii owners also bought PS3's and PS4's.
It's a bit like saying we shouldn't count Apple in the 2007 smartphone market because before then smartphones were different and Apple sold to a different customer compared to Blackberry smartphones.
I've done what you asked for below but omitting consoles from the console market because it sold too much or sold too little is not a good thing to do. If you want me to break down each console sales then fine. But omitting a console from part of the console market is pointless.
We can agree that the Wii was an outlier, right?
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I swear to Christ almighty this mess just keeps going in circles. Who will the torch be passed on to next? Find out, next time on This Is For The -- Where Are Teh Gamez?™
Wasn't that supposed to be Destiny? Is it not Destiny?
Edit: Nvrmnd. Beaten like a dead mule on a mountain by, like, everyone lol.
Ouch. The empire is dying for real.
Nope. Why do you assume this post was directed at you? You're not the one saying this gen's lower sales than last gen has some sort of meaning. But others have. And it's nonsense. The only meaning it has is that Nintendo's console demographic they conjured up with the Wii is gone. But the normal console market is still there.
PoweredByHentai
Member
In a sense yes. But it was still a console just like the Gamecube before and the Wii U after.
The Wii had a casual audience which I would say was the majority of owners. But it also had a core gaming audience and a semi casual gaming audience. In fact data showed a while back that a number of people who owned the Wii also went out to buy a PS3 or 360.
The PS2 also had a casual audience as well and sold 155 million units (50m more than the Wii) thanks to the DVD player and family friendly casual games. But it also had a large core gamer following as well.
Now I'm not saying the PS2 was a casual console. Far from it.
But to say the Wii doesn't count or is an outlier or shouldn't be considered last gen is a bit of a out there thing to say in my opinion. Especially when you consider that core Nintendo titles such as NSMBW & Mario Kart 7 exceeded 28 million each.
Again, using the iPhone example. It's like saying the iPhone back in 2007 was an outlier and shouldn't be counted because a core smartphone user back then was a Blackberry or Windows Phone business user and an iPhone user was more likely to be a casual consumer. Yes I know it's slightly different and not the best example to use but it's an example of how the smartphone market saw something different with the iPhone and others copied and the same with the gaming market where the Wii was different and others copied (Kinect/Move)
Ah ok. Just because people said the same stuff to me in the past.
I wouldn't say Nintendo Wii market has gone, it's moved to mobile and internet games mostly but there is still a lot of Nintendo's base on the Wii who could and have/will move over to PS4/X1,
AngryNapkin
Banned
I'd say so yes, and on a number of fronts:
Historical trends
Longevity
Timing of release
Etc
There are a ton of reasons why you could classify it as such actually. That is not to say you can't credit Nintendo, but looking back at it with scrutiny you find a number of things that place it well outside the norm.
You're absolutely right, but taking numbers that are closer to Gamecube would be more realistic to figure out how many core Nintendo fans would have bought a Wii outside of that soccer mom market. So sales would have looked more like 22 million instead of over 100 million. Yeah you can't simply erase the entire Wii sales numbers. But judging by Nintendo fan sales of the Gamecube and Wii-U, you can extrapolate how many Nintendo fans would have bought a Wii outside the casual audience.
AngryNapkin
Banned
I'd say it would have been under 22 million, probably in the 15-17 million range. Historical losses has Nintendo losing about 13 million on average every gen minus the Wii. With the exception of the Wii they have never outsold their previous home console. With the Wii U looking at (easily) >15 million I'd feel safe putting their base somewhere between 15-17 million at the time.
I agree (in general, maybe not with your exact estimates). Just saying "best case scenario" would be 22 million Nintendo fans outside of the Wii casual. So at best, there was over 80 million conjured up demographic sales that have no true bearing on overall console demographic growth or shrinkage. 80 millionish anomaly numbers of one and only one generation.
The point is I would not look at Sales of Wii to determine the market for PS3. If an Xbox platform sells well I know that there is a market for a console from Sony. If a Nintendo Console sells well I cannot make any such assumption. They sell to different markets with different needs. There is little overlap between the Playstation base and Nintendo base these days.
I can agree with that.
But there is still a semi casual market to account for as well. And that is extremely hard to track. Every console has one and it's usually quite a sizeable market itself. The Wii's USP's alone would have been enough to convince a lot of semi casual users to buy the console in the same way that the PS2 or Xbox 360 saw a lot of semi casual users.
If we ignore Nintendo for a second here then we see that:
PS1 + Saturn = 110m (Short generation)
PS2 + Xbox = 180m (PS2 sales extended)
PS3 + 360 = 175m (Much longer generation)
PS4 + One = (Current ~32m) Projected = 150m
I've never said any of that. What I've said is that gen 7= Wii/PS3/360 and gen 8= Wii U/PS4/One. I'm not saying we can work out trends or use Wii sales to estimate other sales. I've quite literally just put the information up for people to see the first 7 years of cumulative home console sales for each generation.
I'm more than happy to make notes on them if you want me to, but just to be clear, I do not think or agree with the stuff you said in your post. The Wii selling well does not mean that the PS3 will sell well or vice versa. Each console has their own reasons for selling well. Like I said, I can make detailed notes if you want, for example the PS2 technically saw higher first year sales than the PS4 in that graph above because PS2 accounted for 4 quarters of sales in 2000 where as PS4 accounted for one quarter of sales in 2013.
wii u? seriously
This is why people think this guy is a troll. Yet he keeps insisting he's just "naive and doesn't know any better".
yeah he comes up with all kinds of weird replies.
The Artisan
Member
It is the only thing I have been saying. But whatever.
Perhaps the original post will be better?
LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m
Sangetsu-II
Member
This thread is losing it's salt (I finished reading all the pages, finally) but I got what I came for...So what's new guys?
MH, mainline DQ, games like Yokai watch from Level-5, FF XV, KH III.
Wii was largely ignored by the publishers after the first couple of years, and as a consequence it was also ignored by mainstream gamers. You couldn't play Bioshocks, Mass Effects, Dishonored, Fallout, XCOM or many such games on Wii.
So when the shrinkage of console install base is analysed, it's important to understand, what the numbers are used for. You can't just say that one hundred million less consoles sold means 100 million lost opportunities to sell a game. If PS4 sells one hundred million and WiiU and Xbox One sell a combined total of 30M, publishers could still end up with an equal size marketable audience as in the previous generation.
Sure, in raw numbers there may be a huge drop in sales. But the net effect for software market could just as well be positive.
slavesnyder
Member
Don't let them troll you.
If this gen is doing worse then it probably will also have to do with a lot of people not owning both a PS4 and an Xbox One anymore. There is very little reason to have both so far this gen. Last time around a lot of people early adopted the 360 and got the PS3 after it had proven its worth or the jumped in early because they liked the brand. I see especially the Xbox having a hard time to get PS4 users to buy it and the same probably applies vice versa since Sony's first party output hasn't been exactly stellar so far.
unapersson
Member
I think that I one problem with gen over gen comparisons is that fact there is so much overlap. How much of the PS2 casual market was pulled in during the period when it was $99 and the PS3 was already out? When comparing sales between generations they get included in Gen6 but are more like low end Gen7 sales. The cheaper option as it were. It feels like modelling around the concept of generations has lots of inbuilt flaws.
Perhaps the original post will be better?
LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m
that graphic is bullshit. dont forget vr will release next year. that could change the graphic drastically for the worst or for the better.
I think VR will barely be a blip in sales of consoles. Most people interested in Morpheus over Oculus probably already own a PS4.
I never said any of this though.
Why are people so quick to put words in my mouth.
I'm quite literally saying what the cumulative sales of each console generation was. I'm not making any analytical comments about how this gen Is doomed. If anything the opposite.
How is the graph BS? It aligns cumulative console sales for each generation in the first 7 years. It uses hard data. I didn't just make up the numbers.
Portugeezer
Member
Hmmm. Not a fan of that view. The Wii was a console, therefore it should count as a gaming console. Just because it sold well and to a "casual" audience doesn't mean that it shouldn't be counted. Many Wii owners also bought PS3's and PS4's.
It's a bit like saying we shouldn't count Apple in the 2007 smartphone market because before then smartphones were different and Apple sold to a different customer compared to Blackberry smartphones.
I've done what you asked for below but omitting consoles from the console market because it sold too much or sold too little is not a good thing to do. If you want me to break down each console sales then fine. But omitting a console from part of the console market is pointless.
I only say that because some people worry that if the console market shrinks due to the loss of Wii market (to tablets/mobile) will make a big deal. Personally I don't think it will because the big third party games were mainly on 360/PS3 last gen anyway and Nintendo still makes their great exclusives, so I would be more interested to see whether this gen can outsell 360/PS3.
RyanPierre
Member
I think he may be referring to your prediction points on the graph... which are technically made up. =P
Dirtyshubb
Member
This really doesnt take everything into consideration and I would wager your opinion is wrong too.
The vast majority of people have no idea what the Rift is, the Morpheus too for that matter.
What will happen though is that Sony will announce actual games for the Morpheus and potentially a smaller release window at E3 which will be picked up by the mainstream media. By the time it actually comes out a lot more people will be aware of it than they currently are and more likely to want to buy it.
As for the whole VR will trounce consoles in adoption rate I think that is a foolish bet for the moment. Once again the vast majority of people wont have PCs that are capable of beating the PS4 and Morpheus in graphical quality in VR. Im thinking that as good as the tech for the Rift will be, the majority of software will have to be limited to the lowest common denominator for mass market appeal and will probably put out software more on the mobile VR space capabilities. You dont have this issue with the PS4 since everyone will be on equal footing.
In this case, if the common person sees either a rift or a Morpheus and wants to get the most impressive of the 2 they will probably go for Morpheus. The potential cost of the added PS4 is of course a hurdle (That could be alleviated with bundles and price drops) but I would say the idea of getting a VR headset up and running and with no issues on a PC would be the bigger hurdle for most people, especially if they arent into upgrading etc.
Of course everyone could decide they dont want either and just go with their phone VR but I do think out of PC and PS4, PS4 has the best chance to make a splash with the general audience.
I didn't think you did. I just thought that the reason for asking for a comparison graph without Wii was this:
This gen is going to be totally different from previous one, because this time WiiU is a non-factor. But one console manufacturer can carry a generation. It has happened before, and it was awesome.
Fair enough. Mobile and online will indeed eat in to the home console market somewhat (we're certainly not going to see gen 7 sales again) but core and semi casual games will still buy consoles for that living room gaming experience and if anything we'll see better software tie ratios compared to previous generations as the people buying consoles now will be more likely to buy games, especially early on this generation due to pent up demand from the long last generation.
I think this generation will do well to match PS3+360 sales. One of the reasons I think it'll just fall short is due to lack of third console (Wii U), lower than expected sales of the Xbox One outside the USA and an expected shorter generation.
Oh.... In which case I'll agree. I'll probably be wrong.
Certainly can. But we'll have to see how well the PS4 does overall. It won't have a lot of the casual audience like we saw on the Wii or PS2. Unless perhaps VR takes off in that direction.
yeah that. sorry i didnt mean to be rude. i thought you grab that from someone else like pachter
yeah that. sorry i didnt mean to be rude. i thought you grab that from someone else like pachter
Yeh the numbers are legit.
The predictions are my actual predictions. I'm expecting over 150m lifetime sales for gen 8 including cumulative sales of PS4/Xbox One/Wii U.
Now I could very well be wrong as the PS4 and Xbox One seem to be better than many expected. Especially the PS4. And there is also the factor of VR which could act as an extension to console sales later in the generation.
marjo
Member
Not to mention that since both Sony and Microsoft now required a paid subscription to play online, it's become much more difficult to justify owning both consoles.
NoMoChokeSJ
Banned
Nah... it's just harder justifying playing online on both consoles. As long as each console puts out a steady stream of unique and EXCLUSIVE games, one can always justify owning both. I say this as an owner of both.
Perhaps the original post will be better?
LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m
The (rough) cut off for gen 6 was around 155 (PS2) / 24 (Xbox) / 21 (GC)
Then for gen 7 it was (again roughly): 85 (360) / 85 (PS3) / 110 (Wii)
Is it really so out there that the PS4 could do around 110m, the Xbox One 75m, and the WiiU ≈15m, to see perhaps a gen 8 console hardware overall stagnating compared to gen6, but not necessarily in its "death throws" as some have put it?
If we look at sofware sales between gen 6 and gen 7, did we really see an increase proportional to the "magic 80" we suddenly saw popping up in Wii sales?
Because in the end, it's probably software sales that are indicating of a market's health, and the Wii was (or so I have been reading I think) notoriously bad for 3rd party titles, with the possible exception of some "Dance" or other motion based titles.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I don't enjoy shitposts.
The Artisan
Member
both consoles are gonna have and have had games with online play, so if you're missing the online subscription to one of them, you're missing out on that much of all of those games.Nah... it's just harder justifying playing online on both consoles. As long as each console puts out a steady stream of unique and EXCLUSIVE games, one can always justify owning both. I say this as an owner of both.
When the Ps4 reached 18.5m, I think it was reported that about 11 million people had psplus, but I imagine that the number of xbone owners who have xbl are much closer to the amount of xbones sold. this is of course the first time sony is making it mandatory for you to pay to play online
slavesnyder
Member
My mom has a 900 laptop and all she does is playing solitaire.
So, don't be sad. You are not the only one who doesn't know what to do with nice hardware...
Even with 360, its always been about half adoption rate, so its hard to tell.
Just a slight correction. Wii is just over 101 million and PS3 and Xbox 360 are approaching 90 million LTD.
If we look at software sales (units) we see the following-
Gen 6
PS2- 1,530m
GC - 208m
XBX- 250m+
TOTAL: ~2 billion
Gen 7
Wii- 905m
PS3 + 360- 1,750m-1,950m
TOTAL: Exceeding 2.6 billion
For Gen 8 we currently have Wii U and Xbox One over 100 million combined and PS4 at almost 100 million already. So approaching 200 million.
I've always said that whilst console sales will fall the software ratios will increase.