I expected a new sale from E3, it didn't happen. I think their 12 games in one go thing is their big thing to get new members this time, so a sale on top of that isn't to likely.
I luckily have the option to wait still as my sub isn't up until march.
I might just try to snag a cheap one on ebay as the price is still down a bit from the whole Target selling a year of plus for $17.99 ad misprint. Plus it seems like the cards they gave away at E3 are floating around on ebay right now as well. The issue there of course is finding a good seller.
On a different note though, if you see yourself enjoying plus for a while, getting a year isn't a bad idea, as if they do go on sale you can just buy more on sale, as it will just tack onto the end of your sub.
If you let your sub lapse you will lose access to the games, but as soon as you sub up again you should regain access to any game you got with playstation plus. The new games are the same as the old, as long as you download them while they are available you will have access while you are subbed even if they aren't currently available
I doubt they will give out really recent games, but maybe a sale on Orochi. Either way November/December would be a horrible time for it to get released for free as Pirate Warriors comes out around that time. Of course maybe it won't be a horrible time as there is a good chance I will just import that from EU since it still looks like NA won't be getting a physical release of that.