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Pokémon Mafia |OT| Gotta Catch Em Scum!
- Thread starter Burbeting
- Start date
are YOU the cop ?!?!?!?
Ok I guess you wanted me to elaborate on the "context and details" part.
Context
Blarg is easily my top scum read and a number of others seem to agree. It's likely he would have been lynched today and therefore beneficial to him to fake claim. Worst case he gets lynched anyway and nothing is lost. Best case he either draws a real cop out earlier than they might have liked or successfully forces a mislynch on a target of his choice.
Details
No Breadcrumbs for his targets. In a game with 2 deaths per night, from a player who breathes Breadcrumbs.
Blargonaut
Banned
He really wants to play the breadcrumb game
Hey blarg. Want to play my game ?
Dusk Soldier
Member
I'm not going to vote out a cop based on circumstantial evidence. If he's telling the truth and we lynch him, that is still a mislynch.
I understand your point and honestly wouldn't mind a Splinter lynch, but if he's scum and we let him coast then where does that leave us tomorrow? If scum has a double shot left (!) since they didn't 2X NK anyone then we're in a rough spot.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
no, your going to take the least trustworthy player in this game at his word unless god himself get lowered down by a crane to tell you your wrong.
melonrabbit
Member
I don't understand what you're saying here. Are we playing the same game?
I don't know, since you're quoting me here I'd be assuming so, because if not, I'd be asking why you're quoting me here.
Anyway, it's possible for Scum to have a strongman 1 shot and also a normal NK right? But Ynnek was (apparently) doing the second NK's this game so we're not sure if scum have this ability or not, or even if they've used it. I'm erring on the side of caution, but I don't know why you're not.
melonrabbit
Member
One begins to wonder.
The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
You're assuming a lot right now.
...Right
So what you're saying is...
Nope, thought I had it but I don't. Do you think a strongman remaining is possible, yes or no?
This restaurant sucks, the wait time is terrible.
0 out of 5 stars on Yelp.
Any reason you didn't answer this question, Dusk?
What Melon is saying, I think, is that you're making assumptions with no evidence. We don't have any evidence of Scum having a 2nd NK or Scum having a Strongman so I'm wondering where you came to that conclusion.
Blargonaut
Banned
What makes you say that
So the two combatants are:
The guy who keeps lying about claims, has taken more of a backseat as the game goes on, but has been at least questioning people and trying to work things out.
vs
The guy with an uncontested Cop claim who keeps dragging out his claim with nothing to back it up and has, arguably, done a whole lot of nothing in terms of Scum Hunting all game.
Pick your poison, folks.
Personally I think if one flips Scum then the other isn't but I also won't completely discount that theory since I feel not-so-great about either of them. Still, I'm willing to put my money down on it being Blarg though, because a Town Blarg doesn't pull stuff like this for this long or leave explanations out. If Blarg IS Town then I'm going to need a damn good reason why he is being so cagey and noncommittal for me to even entertain the idea, but as time goes on I don't think I'm ever going to get that.
Where I stand on everyone else. This is both a combination of the massive voting record mega-posts I made, what I remember from throughout the game, and interactions from today.
Town: Roy, Melon
Town Lean: Nin, Verelios, Splinter
Unsure: Dusk
Scum Lean: Fire, Stan
Scum: Blarg, LP
The names are not in any order by the way.
Roy/Melon: Basically covered in the vote analysis. I like their votes and their reasons, explanations, and responses to the questions I posed to them about their voting history. Roy is making a good amount of sense and I agree with him that we should be worried about this being LyLo since it is entirely possible we are there and we don't know it. Melon I also feel good about, which I'm not sure if I should be worried or not since last time I Scum read her and she ended up being Town ( >.>;; ). Nevertheless I feel the same way about her as I do about Roy, although she has yet to follow up on all the questions she never asked that I pointed out last page.
Nin/Verelios/Splinter: Nin#2.2 is an enigma. Odd statements, sarcasm, lots of agression, weirds votes that he never explained when I asked. Odd thing is...I still feel like he is Town-ish. Call it a gut feeling I guess but the Nin I see here reminds me a lot of PiR Nin: kinda does his own thing and doesn't really give two fucks what others take of it. He is my lightest Town Lean. Next up is Verelios and my read of him is also based a lot on votes and his responses, although I'm not strong on this feeling either. I agree a lot with his votes and feel that his early vote as well as the subsequent explanations of his later votes is not something Scum would do as I feel like they would have just doubled-down. However, his refusal to put people in reads list for most of the game is not lost on me nor are the recent discussions. Splinter is the last and final read here, although I place him here mostly due to not believing Blarg and that if either of those two were Scum, it's most likely our so-called 'Cop'. Splinter has been trying to figure things out for most of the game whether by questioning people, putting people under the spotlight to get them to talk, or trying to get reads on people. Scum Hunting is the name of the game and I feel Splinter is trying to do just that, although having seen Scum!Splinter before ( and how convincing that can be ) I'm also very wary. The multiple lying fakeclaims he has pulled is an easy enough way for him to claim why he is still alive if he was Scum and it's an easy cover to slip into.
Dusk: I personally Scum Lean on Dusk due to his votes and strange behavior and general attitude throughout the game but his recent 'well, I believe Blarg the Cop' stance has left me confused and uncertain. If Blarg is Scum, does this mean Dusk is Scum and is trying to push his buddy along? Or is this Town!Dusk falling for a gambit? If Blarg is somehow Town, frankly I feel this means Dusk is Town since Scum would take the uncertainty that surrounds Blarg and push that along as a mislynch instead of standing for it. But I feel like Blarg is Scum, so where does that leave Dusk? I'm really not sure if Scum would be bold enough to take a strong stand and support their teammate like this, especially since it looks like a Blarg lynch is the way this Day is shaping up. It's a strong WIFOM, one I don't quite know where to take.
Fire/Stan: Hold on, let me scream this from the highest mountaintop I can find. "VOTE RECORD!" plus a whole lot of gut read. Fire I have already stated previously has some commitment to his votes, namely on Verelios, however I can't recall him ever pushing for his lynch. However, I agree that if it's between Fire and Verelios it's more-than-likely to be one or the other and not both. Personally I think it's Fire but if I am wrong there then it's probably Verelios. Also, my gut doesn't like Fireblend either. A whole lot of indifference or not putting anything forward in a lot of his early posts that I don't like and they never sat well with me. Stan is, understandably, a mix of vote record and gut. Puts a vote on Bronx just to have a vote down, gambles and randomizes a vote on LP on Day 3, and then a Blarg vote that was never quite explained for Day 4. My only hesitation is that he agrees with me that Blarg should die, so either he is stuck bussing his teammate because he voted for him the last Day Phase and backing down would look bad, Blarg is Town ( lol ) and I'm way off, or I'm wrong about Stan again and he is Town. Gut still says Scum tho
Blarg/LP: I feel like I've talked enough about Blarg at this point that I don't need to repeat myself. If anyone would like me to elaborate more feel free to ask but I'm getting lazy and I really want to play Overwatch before bed. LP, and my thoughts on him are mostly in the vote record super-post I made. Has a good connection he pointed out about Ferret but never really follows up on it afterwards because it 'never gained traction' and he therefore just dropped it. Jumps in with a Gorlak vote for 'activity' despite it being close to the Day End and it just felt like he really didn't care who got lynched. Then votes for Ynnek and uses TheG as some sort of 'evidence' that it's the right vote to make despite TheG having yet to flip. Overall, feeling like he is Scum who had a one-shot-wonder first vote and then trailed off after that.
For easier viewing here is Part 1 ( Stanley, Splinter, Salva ), Part 2 ( Dusk, Melon, and Blarg ), Part 3 ( Verelios, Fire, and LP ), and finally, Part 4 ( Roy and Nin )
Going to come back and check on things before bed in an hour or so. If anyone has any urgent questions ask them now because in the morning I have work up until 30 minutes before Day End. I hope to be around but, as usual, no promises.
The guy who keeps lying about claims, has taken more of a backseat as the game goes on, but has been at least questioning people and trying to work things out.
vs
The guy with an uncontested Cop claim who keeps dragging out his claim with nothing to back it up and has, arguably, done a whole lot of nothing in terms of Scum Hunting all game.
Pick your poison, folks.
Personally I think if one flips Scum then the other isn't but I also won't completely discount that theory since I feel not-so-great about either of them. Still, I'm willing to put my money down on it being Blarg though, because a Town Blarg doesn't pull stuff like this for this long or leave explanations out. If Blarg IS Town then I'm going to need a damn good reason why he is being so cagey and noncommittal for me to even entertain the idea, but as time goes on I don't think I'm ever going to get that.
Where I stand on everyone else. This is both a combination of the massive voting record mega-posts I made, what I remember from throughout the game, and interactions from today.
Town: Roy, Melon
Town Lean: Nin, Verelios, Splinter
Unsure: Dusk
Scum Lean: Fire, Stan
Scum: Blarg, LP
The names are not in any order by the way.
Roy/Melon: Basically covered in the vote analysis. I like their votes and their reasons, explanations, and responses to the questions I posed to them about their voting history. Roy is making a good amount of sense and I agree with him that we should be worried about this being LyLo since it is entirely possible we are there and we don't know it. Melon I also feel good about, which I'm not sure if I should be worried or not since last time I Scum read her and she ended up being Town ( >.>;; ). Nevertheless I feel the same way about her as I do about Roy, although she has yet to follow up on all the questions she never asked that I pointed out last page.
Nin/Verelios/Splinter: Nin#2.2 is an enigma. Odd statements, sarcasm, lots of agression, weirds votes that he never explained when I asked. Odd thing is...I still feel like he is Town-ish. Call it a gut feeling I guess but the Nin I see here reminds me a lot of PiR Nin: kinda does his own thing and doesn't really give two fucks what others take of it. He is my lightest Town Lean. Next up is Verelios and my read of him is also based a lot on votes and his responses, although I'm not strong on this feeling either. I agree a lot with his votes and feel that his early vote as well as the subsequent explanations of his later votes is not something Scum would do as I feel like they would have just doubled-down. However, his refusal to put people in reads list for most of the game is not lost on me nor are the recent discussions. Splinter is the last and final read here, although I place him here mostly due to not believing Blarg and that if either of those two were Scum, it's most likely our so-called 'Cop'. Splinter has been trying to figure things out for most of the game whether by questioning people, putting people under the spotlight to get them to talk, or trying to get reads on people. Scum Hunting is the name of the game and I feel Splinter is trying to do just that, although having seen Scum!Splinter before ( and how convincing that can be ) I'm also very wary. The multiple lying fakeclaims he has pulled is an easy enough way for him to claim why he is still alive if he was Scum and it's an easy cover to slip into.
Dusk: I personally Scum Lean on Dusk due to his votes and strange behavior and general attitude throughout the game but his recent 'well, I believe Blarg the Cop' stance has left me confused and uncertain. If Blarg is Scum, does this mean Dusk is Scum and is trying to push his buddy along? Or is this Town!Dusk falling for a gambit? If Blarg is somehow Town, frankly I feel this means Dusk is Town since Scum would take the uncertainty that surrounds Blarg and push that along as a mislynch instead of standing for it. But I feel like Blarg is Scum, so where does that leave Dusk? I'm really not sure if Scum would be bold enough to take a strong stand and support their teammate like this, especially since it looks like a Blarg lynch is the way this Day is shaping up. It's a strong WIFOM, one I don't quite know where to take.
Fire/Stan: Hold on, let me scream this from the highest mountaintop I can find. "VOTE RECORD!" plus a whole lot of gut read. Fire I have already stated previously has some commitment to his votes, namely on Verelios, however I can't recall him ever pushing for his lynch. However, I agree that if it's between Fire and Verelios it's more-than-likely to be one or the other and not both. Personally I think it's Fire but if I am wrong there then it's probably Verelios. Also, my gut doesn't like Fireblend either. A whole lot of indifference or not putting anything forward in a lot of his early posts that I don't like and they never sat well with me. Stan is, understandably, a mix of vote record and gut. Puts a vote on Bronx just to have a vote down, gambles and randomizes a vote on LP on Day 3, and then a Blarg vote that was never quite explained for Day 4. My only hesitation is that he agrees with me that Blarg should die, so either he is stuck bussing his teammate because he voted for him the last Day Phase and backing down would look bad, Blarg is Town ( lol ) and I'm way off, or I'm wrong about Stan again and he is Town. Gut still says Scum tho
Blarg/LP: I feel like I've talked enough about Blarg at this point that I don't need to repeat myself. If anyone would like me to elaborate more feel free to ask but I'm getting lazy and I really want to play Overwatch before bed. LP, and my thoughts on him are mostly in the vote record super-post I made. Has a good connection he pointed out about Ferret but never really follows up on it afterwards because it 'never gained traction' and he therefore just dropped it. Jumps in with a Gorlak vote for 'activity' despite it being close to the Day End and it just felt like he really didn't care who got lynched. Then votes for Ynnek and uses TheG as some sort of 'evidence' that it's the right vote to make despite TheG having yet to flip. Overall, feeling like he is Scum who had a one-shot-wonder first vote and then trailed off after that.
For easier viewing here is Part 1 ( Stanley, Splinter, Salva ), Part 2 ( Dusk, Melon, and Blarg ), Part 3 ( Verelios, Fire, and LP ), and finally, Part 4 ( Roy and Nin )
Going to come back and check on things before bed in an hour or so. If anyone has any urgent questions ask them now because in the morning I have work up until 30 minutes before Day End. I hope to be around but, as usual, no promises.
Blargonaut
Banned
shoot
Blargonaut
Banned
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
Day 1? Your end vote on Bronx? I mentioned it when I went through your votes initially here:
Your post in question.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
have... havnt we had this exact conversaion before?
hold on and let me find the posts
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
yeah, yeah we kinda did:
well at least i didnt have to type that all out again.
well at least i didnt have to type that all out again.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
and i still have no idea what a slay queen is.
Blargonaut
Banned
Since *Sp oh-so conveniently left out mentioning the majority of his Role-claims, maybe someone should do that for us
I don't need the Townie points
I don't need the Townie points
Blargonaut
Banned
damnit I burned the stove
and the ticket is raw
I have to refire the plate, sry
It's not quite ceramic yet
and the ticket is raw
I have to refire the plate, sry
It's not quite ceramic yet
Blargonaut
Banned
Too late now
Blargonaut
Banned
What did you mean here melon? Because first I thought you were saying a scum double kill is unlikely (which I'd agree with), but this line sounds more like the opposite?
Claimed vet to avoid capture.
Claimed vig because it was the only opportunity we were gonna get to really test Sawneeks (I mean it's not like we had a cop available who could have tested her, let's say on N3 after she had accused someone of lying in a private chat).
Claimed bulletproof to bring potentially relevant info to the table.
Speaking of claims... Why did you claim vig?
Blargonaut
Banned
Are you referring to my "no, I killed Gorlak" phase?
And why would you not want to be captured
And why would you not want to be captured
Yes
At the time I thought trainers were absorbing powers. I couldn't decide if it was a good idea or not for powers to be stacked in one place. Couple of concerns:
1) If trainers can only pick & use one power per night, thats a lot of powers going to waste.
2) I also didn't trust trainers in general. We already had a town trainer flip, I thought a majority of the surviving trainers would be neutral/scum.
Also, if I'm going to be captured, I'd rather be captured by the last surviving trainer than whichever scrub tries to grab me first (feel free to send a pokeball my way, Gaga). Got to play for that special win.
¯\_(ツ
_/¯Blargonaut
Banned
Blargonaut
Banned
For you
And for you.
Blargonaut
Banned
no you
Blargonaut
Banned
Are we actually going to kill the Detective before killing their claimed *S-rank Mafia result, just because said Detective's a love-to-hate gumshoe archetype?
Seems counter-intuitive, and melancholic
didn't realize I signed up for Pokemon Noir
Seems counter-intuitive, and melancholic
didn't realize I signed up for Pokemon Noir
Blargonaut
Banned
Dusk, you say you will not vote out a cop based on circumstantial evidence, but you are willing to vote out Splinter based on a cop claim with 0 proof? In a potential lylo situation? (you yourself said you saw this day for all intense and purposes as lylo). And yeah, we don't need to lynch Blarg to hit scum, that's obvious, but I really don't get what you are trying to say with that. I see no reason why town blarg would fake claim a red check on town Splinter, which means one of those two has to be scum. Why would we ever go outside this duo with our lynch then, outside of someone else coming forward with information which proofs someone else is scum?
That last question can also be asked to you Nin. What do you mean with a 3rd potential candidate?
BTW, In about 3 hours I will prepare to go to work, so I will put down my vote around that time. I should be back from work just in time for days end, but that isn't guaranteed and I REALLY want to avoid the risk of losing the game because scum could tie the vote since I wasn't back from work in time. That would be a terrible way to lose the game
It was a joke. Since blarg has a tendency to act like someone else, I called his other self the third party.
Roy. How would you proceed then ?
Lynch blarg in order to check if really is a cop ?
Or trust for today and Lynch splinter to see if he really is scum.
I mean the third option would be ,like Dusk suggested, would be for GaGa to try to catch splinter in order to see if he is catchable.
Roy. How would you proceed then ?
Lynch blarg in order to check if really is a cop ?
Or trust for today and Lynch splinter to see if he really is scum.
I mean the third option would be ,like Dusk suggested, would be for GaGa to try to catch splinter in order to see if he is catchable.
Dusk Soldier
Member
Lone, and roy both floated around the idea that we might not have a cop because trainers function as pseudo-cops.
This is our chance to check that theory and potentially end speculation about that, since if Blarg is lying about being a pokemon, then he is most likely scum.
If Blarg is caught, that obviously won't prove that he's town, but it will rule out the pseudo-cop theory so we can end that discussion and move on from it.
Dusk Soldier
Member
Splinter is still the safer lynch because if Blarg is telling the truth, Splinter is 100% scum. However the opposite is not true. If Blarg is lying, that doesn't mean that Splinter is town.
If we blanketly lynch Blarg and he filps scum. That would give Splinter big #townpoints that can help him coast to the end game.
And again if we are in lylo, that means there are five scum in play. We are not going to get them all without the help of a cop. Lynching the claimed cop this early would be suicide.
If you don't know who I want to lynch today you obviously haven't been paying attention to the game Nin. I scum read Blarg. I town read Splinter. I am playing with the presumption we are in lylo, may not be the case, but better safe then sorry. So trusting for today is not really something I can get behind, since if we really are in lylo, it would mean we would lose if Blarg is lying. And I think Blarg is lying.
And your third option would create the problem of who to lynch today if not Blarg or Splinter, plus we don't know if scum are catch able pokemon or not so it could even end up telling us a whole bunch of nothing.
So your argument is "If Blarg is scum and we are in lylo we basically have lost already"?
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
has anyone else felt like almost every one of LP's points today have been complete BS?
or is that just me?
sir, friend, fellow gafia'er, prorbable scum member.
mafia is not a numbers game.
there isnt going to be an easy answer here, and attempting to solve this with freaking statistics only throws our ability to actively win this game out the window.
We dont have discussions to work out the probablity of our choices, we attempt to figure each other out, to weigh up someones words and actions and try to make an informed decision on whether we think our fellow players are trustworthy or if they are lying to us.
blarg has given us a pretty binary choice to make, do we think he is and has been on our side, or is he scum attempting to deceive us with an easy lynch that we desperately need.
after his actions throughout this whole game, do you honestly trust blarg and his completely unsubstantiated claim?
or is that just me?
sir, friend, fellow gafia'er, prorbable scum member.
mafia is not a numbers game.
there isnt going to be an easy answer here, and attempting to solve this with freaking statistics only throws our ability to actively win this game out the window.
We dont have discussions to work out the probablity of our choices, we attempt to figure each other out, to weigh up someones words and actions and try to make an informed decision on whether we think our fellow players are trustworthy or if they are lying to us.
blarg has given us a pretty binary choice to make, do we think he is and has been on our side, or is he scum attempting to deceive us with an easy lynch that we desperately need.
after his actions throughout this whole game, do you honestly trust blarg and his completely unsubstantiated claim?
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
royas post (the one about going to work) makes me realize i face the same problem.
as usual, i wont be around for the days end (its already 2am, and i aint that much of a night owl), so imma have to make by vote earlier than we might like.
im pretty confident in who im voting for, but im sure not blind to the possibility of me being wrong and as as we have already discussed, this could be a real problem if i dont vote for scum and they just pile on that vote and hammer their way to an early victory.
with that in mind i would like to ask anyone who does already have a vote down, and knows they will be able to place it later, to unvote to at least make scums possible easy hammer-win scenario less likey?
basically if you already voting for blarg get off cuz i wanna vote for him now.
as usual, i wont be around for the days end (its already 2am, and i aint that much of a night owl), so imma have to make by vote earlier than we might like.
im pretty confident in who im voting for, but im sure not blind to the possibility of me being wrong and as as we have already discussed, this could be a real problem if i dont vote for scum and they just pile on that vote and hammer their way to an early victory.
with that in mind i would like to ask anyone who does already have a vote down, and knows they will be able to place it later, to unvote to at least make scums possible easy hammer-win scenario less likey?
basically if you already voting for blarg get off cuz i wanna vote for him now.
Dusk Soldier
Member
As scum the playbook for lylo is simple.
i. Start a thunderdome.
-It doesn't matter which two players. Can be two scum, two town, one of each. What matters is to keep our choices binary.
-Blarg started a thunderdome by claiming cop.
ii. Split
-To give the thunderdome credence, they would need to split up.Having some scum argue one way, and some scum argue the opposite makes it difficult for town to correctly read who is working together.
iii. Vote
-one minute before deadline place a coordinated vote.
-as long as town's votes have been split up. They should have enough votes to force either a mislynch or tie. Enough to win them the game.
They only way to counter this as town, is to turbo a scum player. And the only way every town person will agree who to lynch is if they have a cop directing their decisions.
We can get lucky maybe one, two even maybe three times. But an entire scum team? It's not going to happen without a cop.
