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[speculawyer]

I found it.

I think facing default thus 'questioning the US debt' could persuade them.

Some AP article I read gave me the impression that they were ready to proceed with the unilateral raising of the debt ceiling.

 

[jamesinclair]

Uh. The GOP needs to pick up four seats. That's it. And most of the seats they are defending are in conservative states that would vote GOP no matter how bad the party is doing otherwise. The timing could not be worse for Democrats in the Senate; the Presidency remains to be seen but I've gone from cautiously optimistic to flat out not knowing what the fuck is going to happen there.

I'm all but guaranteeing that my Democratic Senator (Bob Casey from PA) will not have a chance. He might as well not show up. So you can scratch one (D) off the toss-up list, it's pretty much over for him. The last thing I remember him doing that was worth any significance was endorsing Obama over Hillary in the primary season. Yeah, that long ago. He's toast.

So take 4 down to 3.

Please, theres a greater chance of the dems getting a super-majority in both houses than any republica gains.

 

[The Chosen One]

Tamron Hall Stalked
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/22/tamron-hall-stalker-arres_n_907147.html

I swear, it wasn't me!

Spoiler

My binoculars are on Melissa Harris-Perry

 

[Diablos]

So you're saying republicans would wait to impeach Obama until 2013, more than a year after he raised the debt limit (assuming they take the senate)? Come on.

No you "come on". Have you been asleep or are you so used to how radical the right-wing is that you've accepted it as everyday politics?

Before I continue, I'd just like to interject some words for thought here -- everything the GOP said Obama was in the first two years of his Presidency to energize their base -- someone who is not looking out for you, who is going to wreck the economy, who is basically anti-American in every sense, who is a radical -- this is actually what the GOP is. It's absolutely brilliant because they took every label you could give to the GOP and made it a brand name for Obama among conservatives and some "moderates" who are secretly disappointed in Bush but will still show up at the polls, and your occasional lazy uninformed American who pretends they know politics because that Glenn Beck guy sure is good y'know. They added even more noise to distort what it means to be a Democrat in this country which is pretty fucking mindblowing when you put it all in perspective in light of current events.

Anyway, why not wait to impeach him? They HAVE to wait. Assuming you are right and he uses the 14th next month, they still couldn't do it now, the Democrats in the Senate would stop it cold just like they did for Clinton. Also, the odds are way too good for the GOP to lose out on taking back the Senate. They're only one step away really. Look at the seats that are up. The Class I Senate is favoring the GOP no matter what just because of who's up and where they're located on the map.

If he raised it GOP freshmen would go insane, Boehner would make a series of ridiculous statements, Fox would go crazy, etc. A house member would probably sue to take this to the SC, who would most likely rule in Obama's favor rather than plunge the global economy. The American people, having watched republican obstruction for weeks, would side with Obama.

Or they'd side with the GOP. A party that's good at balling their fucking eyes out and throwing temper tantrums (managed by organized, relentless negative campaigning) ad nasuem until the ignorant populace is beaten over the head with it to the extent that they second guess themselves and blame Obama as unemployment remains in the shitter. Welcome to American politics.

If the final deal if the McConnell joke, Obama should walk away from the table and dare republicans to default the country. If there is no agreement by August 1st, Obama should raise the ceiling himself.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Clevinger]

Please, theres a greater chance of the dems getting a super-majority in both houses than any republica gains.

Man, what? Democrats have 23 seats up, the GOP have only 10 seats up. Is there some poll I'm missing that shows a giant GOP backlash?

 

[Wall]

Sorry to dig this back up, I just want to make sure I wasn't misunderstood.

I'll try to respond to your points in broken up quotes so sorry for the confusion in advance.





I my opinion I don't think the bolded is true. I think the issue is that most people don't understand nuanced positions. I've read that people acting think Obama ran as a war hating Presidential nominee. Now if you have been following and listen to his campaign those people would have known that that was completely not true. I honestly think Barack doesn't like to close/pin himself into a position that he later can't move on. Like look at the GOP that signed that stupid Grover pledge to never raise taxes. Now when you reach a time when you have to push off of that, you can't do it because you swore to never do that.

I think it's not smart to make these bubbles of ideology that are so small and unworkable that it would be hard to work on big policy issues with the other party.

I agree with you about the foreign policy stuff. It was always perfectly clear to me that he wasn't an isolationist, and wasn't going to immediately get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan. I was and am fine with that.

I partially agree with you about his rhetorical style, which I also think is designed to leave him a lot of room to manuvear political. I will say however that I think there is a difference between a politician stating a position on an issue, then compromising with a politician holding a different position on the issue, and communicating the fact that you are compromising, and a politician taking a pledge tying them down to a specific policy.

I'm not saying President Obama never carves out positions, but sometimes they aren't clear.

Please understand that he didn't pass any stimulus bill. The Congress did. He signed a stimulus bill. I only say that because you are kinda giving Congress a pass here. Especially some of the conservadems in the Senate. I think I remember reading something about his people wanting a 1.2 Trillion bill, but from memory I remember reading many Senators stating that nothing over a Trillion could get passed.

Then I also remember Sen. Nelson, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter and some other conservaDems pulling a BS move at the very end to lower the number under $800 Billion. Again imo it would be wrong to place the majority of the blame for a too small stimulus bill on the President for lack of principles.

I completely understand and agree with your the point about congress. I am well aware of the obstacle that the Senate posed to President Obama's agenda, and how laws are crafted and passed in this country.

My criticism was aimed towards the fact that the Obama administration attempted to sell the stimulus to the public as the correct size on policy grounds - rather than acknowledging the politics involved in passing it and the fact that his economic advisors thought a bigger, and differently constructed (less tax cuts, more spending) bill was needed.

They were only setting themselves up for a massive political failure when they did that, and needless jeopordized their credibility on economic policiy in my opinion.

This link explains what I am talking about:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/07/obama-has-always-been-for-premature-fiscal-austerity.html

(although I guess it comes down to who you believe - the people who blame Larry Summers for everything, or the theory that President Obama was fully informed of the situation)

You should care because it's how things get done. Instead of always being pissed off and ignorant about how/why something got passed and signed, it's good to know and understand the ins and outs. You don't have to agree, just understand. It's better for you in the long run to understand why it works this way. I'm not saying you are ignorant on the subject, but many people are and don't understand why compromise is even an option.

If it means people show up for more elections than just the Presidential election, I'm all for it. It the same people who came out to vote in 2008 came out to vote in 2010, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Dude you are so wrong that I don't even know what to say. You maybe remembering the American marketed version of Abe Lincoln, but things didn't quite happen the way you think they did.

Lincoln did offer compromises with slavery. The big one in my mind being that he told the current (at the time) slave owning states that they could keep their slaves. He didn't even offer to free all the slaves. That's one hell of a compromise.

I'm not sure what you are referring to in my post. If you are talking about the same compromise that President Obama referred to, I acknowledged that in my post. I wasn't saying that President Lincoln never compromised.

If you are saying that President Lincoln tried to enter into negotiations with the Confederacy to bring the back into the Union on the assurance that he wouldn't try to abolish slavery before commencing hositilities, I would be interested to read a history on that. I would find it odd that he did so, considering he did not run on a platform of abolishing slavery and the officially stated purpose at the outset of the civil wasn't to abolish slavery, it was to preserve the Union.

Slavery was always the elephant in the room though.

 

[Diablos]

Please, theres a greater chance of the dems getting a super-majority in both houses than any republica gains.

What?

Am I reading a thread from 2007?

 

[jamesinclair]

Man, what? Democrats have 23 seats up, the GOP have only 10 seats up. Is there some poll I'm missing that shows a giant GOP backlash?

19.2% approval for congress.
17% says Gallup.


(I cant find any polls for senate GOP)

Obama is at around 50%.

Do the math.

 

[Diablos]

19.2% approval for congress.
17% says Gallup.


(I cant find any polls for senate GOP)

Obama is at around 50%.

Do the math.

Okay. Let's do it.

It means the GOP holds the House, gets a slim majority in the Senate and Obama possibly gets re-elected.

PS - Americans hate Congress as a whole so it's not like they're putting so much faith into the institution that they'd feel compelled to vote in the other party so soon.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm all but guaranteeing that my Democratic Senator (Bob Casey from PA) will not have a chance. He might as well not show up. So you can scratch one (D) off the toss-up list, it's pretty much over for him. The last thing I remember him doing that was worth any significance was endorsing Obama over Hillary in the primary season. Yeah, that long ago. He's toast.

So take 4 down to 3.

Pennsylvania polling we released last week showed Barack Obama in serious trouble in the state. But Bob Casey just continues to roll along, leading his actual opponents by 18-20 points and leading a bevy of potential candidates the GOP would probably rather have in the race by anywhere from 9-16 points.

Casey's approval numbers don't exactly set the world on fire, with 40% of voters giving him good marks to 32% who disapprove. Those numbers are deceptively weak though. What keeps them down is that Democrats aren't terribly enthused with Casey- only 56% of them approve of him to 18% who disapprove. You'd usually expect a Senator to be more in the 70-80% approval range with voters of his own party. But even if Democratic voters aren't enthralled with Casey 79-85% of them are still committed to voting for him in the general election and unenthusiastic votes count just the same as excited ones.
...
Casey's going to be very tough to beat. It's still odd that no serious Republican candidate has stepped up to try though.

Bob Casey Jr in good shape.

Anything else, Diablos?

 

[jamesinclair]

^Lols

It means the GOP holds the House, gets a slim majority in the Senate and Obama possibly gets re-elected.

You're delusional.

I dont think even Fox News would be able to make that prediction with a serious face.

 

[Clevinger]

19.2% approval for congress.
17% says Gallup.


(I cant find any polls for senate GOP)

Obama is at around 50%.

Do the math.

Voters always hate congress. A better argument would be showing polls with weak GOP senate races, and strong Dem senate races.

I haven't been watching it that closely, so I just hope you're right.

 

[PantherLotus]

I'm predicting huge democratic gains as well. Not super-majorities or anything, but the tea party will be a one-election fad, or a 1.5 election fad after they waste their votes on someone not named Romney.

 

[Wall]

I was going to read your substantial post, but the fact that you kept writing "principals" instead of "principles" just made me lose the desire to put the work in.

Sorry about that. Can't say its the first time I made a mistake like that. Can't say it will be the last time.

It is a price I pay for typing quickly while trying to do justice to my position with arguments that are thorough enough to fully express my ideas.

I'll try to do better, but I can't say I'll lose any sleep over it.

 

[state-of-the-art]

Thanks to whoever recommended Boogie Man upthread. I already knew quite a bit about Atwater, because he was Rove before Rove, but I'm really enjoying hearing some of the early stories, before he came onto my radar. A really well done political documentary, and a must watch for those that don't know the history of Lee Atwater.

That was me. I'm glad somebody else watched it. I thought it was really informative, definitely recommend it.

 

[besada]

Isn't it a bit early for Diablos to be in full on panic mode? You have to pace yourself. We're still more than a year out from the election. At this rate you'll have a stroke before the Republican primaries are done.

That was me. I'm glad somebody else watched it. I thought it was really informative, definitely recommend it.

Then thank you, sir. Listening to Ed Rollins talk about beating the fuck out of Atwater was worth the price of admission alone. It's a really well-done film, and anyone who doesn't know the history should watch it.

 

[jamesinclair]

I'm predicting huge democratic gains as well. Not super-majorities or anything, but the tea party will be a one-election fad, or a 1.5 election fad after they waste their votes on someone not named Romney.

Itll be like 2010 was for dems.

2010? It wasnt that people switched parties or masses of republicans came out, it was that dems stayed home.

2012? Republicans will stay home because the GOP has been a failure. It was all about jeeeerbs. There are still no jobs. Dems wont be running out (no hope or change), but the republican advantage is gone.

Will be a historically low voter turnout, IMO.

Nobody wants to vote for either party. But dems will get the slight edge because of how unpopular the new GOP is. If you really think Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio will be running out to vote GOP after they saw what happened last time, you're insane.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Ah, Obama did rule out the 14th amendment afterall. Fuck

Itll be like 2010 was for dems.

2010? It wasnt that people switched parties or masses of republicans came out, it was that dems stayed home.

2012? Republicans will stay home because the GOP has been a failure. It was all about jeeeerbs. There are still no jobs. Dems wont be running out (no hope or change), but the republican advantage is gone.

Will be a historically low voter turnout, IMO.

Nobody wants to vote for either party. But dems will get the slight edge because of how unpopular the new GOP is. If you really think Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio will be running out to vote GOP after they saw what happened last time, you're insane.

You honestly believe republicans will stay home and let Obama get re-elected? They're going to turn out in force regardless of the nominee. If anyone needs to worry about turn out, it's democrats; youth and minority voting should be down, as both groups are facing high unemployment and disillusionment.

 

[state-of-the-art]

Then thank you, sir. Listening to Ed Rollins talk about beating the fuck out of Atwater was worth the price of admission alone. It's a really well-done film, and anyone who doesn't know the history should watch it.

I totally agree. All of that stuff occurred while I was still very young, but I found it all to be very informative nonetheless. I think anybody with an interest in contemporary politics should definitely watch it.

 

[Bay Maximus]

Ah, Obama did rule out the 14th amendment afterall. Fuck



You honestly believe republicans will stay home and let Obama get re-elected? They're going to turn out in force regardless of the nominee. If anyone needs to worry about turn out, it's democrats; youth and minority voting should be down, as both groups are facing high unemployment and disillusionment.

There will definitely be a substantial number of people that come out just to 'vote against Obama'. It will certainly be closer than the last general election to be sure. However I think to actually win the White House the GOP is going to need a candidate to galvenize the base and not just Iowa/extreme right.

 

[Atilac]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

 

[Oblivion]

Spoiler

My binoculars are on Melissa Harris-Perry

*high five*

You sir, have good taste in political milfs.

 

[Clevinger]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

whuuuuuut?

 

[Atilac]

Huffingtonpost had to be hacked by anon right? right?

 

[jamesinclair]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

Alright, thats it. Im done.

accompanied by the creation of a 12-member panel made up of 12 lawmakers -- six from each chamber and six from each party.

A Super Congress would be less accountable than the system that exists today, and would find it easier to strip the public of popular benefits.

Goodbye poligaf, we've had fun, but my heart and brain can no longer handle this.

I need to find some internet kittens.

 

[Atilac]

Tea party obstruct is leading to an increase in the size of government... LMAO
I hope this idea is just to scare the shit out of the TPT, so they compromise.

 

[Trakdown]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

Jesus Tap-Dancing Christ.

I know Obama already took the 14th amendment off of the table, but if this the alternative he better put it right the fuck back on.

Fucking Super-Congress. Fuck off.

 

[Bay Maximus]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

Call me crazy, but I actually think it's a good idea.

 

[Dartastic]

Jesus Tap-Dancing Christ.

I know Obama already took the 14th amendment off of the table, but if this the alternative he better put it right the fuck back on.

Fucking Super-Congress. Fuck off.

Seriously. What the fuck?!?!?

 

[Oblivion]

I hate to be a negative Nancy, as well as a broken record, but as Bill Maher has said, and 2010 proved, don't put anything past this stupid fucking country.

The "American People" have very short memories and are impulsive as fuck.

 

[state-of-the-art]

Legislation approved by the Super Congress -- which some on Capitol Hill are calling the "super committee" -- would then be fast-tracked through both chambers, where it couldn't be amended by simple, regular lawmakers, who'd have the ability only to cast an up or down vote. With the weight of both leaderships behind it, a product originated by the Super Congress would have a strong chance of moving through the little Congress and quickly becoming law. A Super Congress would be less accountable than the system that exists today, and would find it easier to strip the public of popular benefits. Negotiators are currently considering cutting the mortgage deduction and tax credits for retirement savings, for instance, extremely popular policies that would be difficult to slice up using the traditional legislative process.

WTF is this shit?

 

[ThisWreckage]

Super Congress? Who in the hell let Capcom near the U.S. government?

 

[Dartastic]

Super Congress? Who in the hell let Capcom near the U.S. government?

Just hope they don't release Ultimate Congress and leave out Mega Man. We're all doomed then.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

lol @ super congress.

 

[Clevinger]

Call me crazy, but I actually think it's a good idea.

You're crazy.

 

[Wall]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/23/super-congress-debt-ceiling_n_907887.html
This is a joke right? Super Congress?

That plan sounds like a version of the fall back deal that Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid were working on if the "grand bargain" failed.

As far as I can tell it always included some sort of panel that would essentially be the same thing as the "Gang of Six".

If the House and Senate can't pass the gang of six plan now, I don't see what would change between now and next year that would allow the plan to pass at that time.

Frankly, I don't have a problem with the plan, since it seems to result in the greatest likelihood that we will escape with the minimal number of cuts. My stance stems from the fact that I disagree with President Obama that now is the time to make a deal over deficits for two reasons.

Firstly, in terms of the health of the whole country - we have a depressed economy -, so any cuts made now will only hurt us and threaten to put us back into a recession.

Secondly, on a more partisan basis, any deal made to close the deficit now will, by virtue of the composition of congress, necessarily reflect Republican priorities rather than Democratic priorities.

Still, if the deal comes to pass I have to hope that people with an understanding of economics will have successfully changed the narrative around this issue to one supporting the idea that we need more stimulus in the economy right now, not less, otherwise the weight of the White House and other "serious" opinion will make it hard for congress to turn down whatever deal comes out of the committee. Especially if the rating agencies act.

The sooner the deficit issue goes away the better.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

If Obama signs off on the super congress (and it looks like he has) he doesn't deserve a benefit of the doubt going forward.

 

[Diablos]

Bob Casey Jr in good shape.

Anything else, Diablos?

Considering he doesn't even have an opponent yet, this doesn't mean a lot. When you look at how they break the polling down, he is, as the article said, most certainly not setting the world on fire. Casey's a shitty campaigner and everyone in the state (left, right and center) knows it, not to mention he's done fuck all for his entire first term as Senator. 2012 will not be like 2006; Casey will actually have to try and won't be going up against a douche like Santorum.

Also WTF @ the Super Congress. This better not go through. Obama, don't let it happen.
Despite the possibility of impeachment I think he should listen to Bill Clinton. ANYTHING BUT THIS.

 

[maximum360]

This is what happens when The Onion becomes reality. The Onion writers should take a week off in protest. They are being robbed of creative material by reality.

 

[Diablos]

I'm predicting huge democratic gains as well. Not super-majorities or anything, but the tea party will be a one-election fad, or a 1.5 election fad after they waste their votes on someone not named Romney.

ARE YOU IN DENIAL?

At best they'd get marginal gains. AT BEST. They are not taking back the House, they may win some seats back but not enough to get a majority or anywhere close. The Senate isn't even a toss-up. Democrats have to defend way too many seats and their majority today is slim.

People aren't going to sit at home just because the Tea Party failed them; there's' a huge group of people who have been waiting since the second Obama took office to cast a vote against him, denying him a second term. 2012 is going to be insane.,

If a great deal of the Democratic base is being as dismissive about the potential GOP ubervictory in Congress and even the WH as people are in this thread, that's really scary.

 

[ElectricThunder]

Jesus Christ....Super Congress?!!

As if the Simpson-Bowles shit wasn't ridiculously stacked in favor of ruining things for the average folk---this would be an utter monstrosity and set such a terrible precedent the likes of which I can't even fathom.

When IFC finally does Season 2 of Onion News Network, they might as well just scan around the actual news stations for the half hour and not even bother with commentary---it'll be just a bonkers.

I never would have suspected that one of the most uninteresting 2008 democratic presidential candidates outright would be the one currently dancing about with this insanity, egging it on with his "negotiation skills".

 

[balladofwindfishes]

ARE YOU IN DENIAL?

At best they'd get marginal gains. AT BEST. They are not taking back the House, they may win some seats back but not enough to get a majority or anywhere close. The Senate isn't even a toss-up. Democrats have to defend way too many seats and their majority today is slim.

People aren't going to sit at home just because the Tea Party failed them; there's' a huge group of people who have been waiting since the second Obama took office to cast a vote against him, denying him a second term. 2012 is going to be insane.,

If a great deal of the Democratic base is being as dismissive about the potential GOP ubervictory in Congress and even the WH as people are in this thread, that's really scary.

there's a huge vocal backlash against the GOP.

It would be a very odd election if the GOP was so unpopular, yet actually gained seats anywhere The GOP is even unpopular right now in areas usually held by the GOP.

That sort of stuff just does not happen in American history.

 

[gcubed]

ARE YOU IN DENIAL?

At best they'd get marginal gains. AT BEST. They are not taking back the House, they may win some seats back but not enough to get a majority or anywhere close. The Senate isn't even a toss-up. Democrats have to defend way too many seats and their majority today is slim.

People aren't going to sit at home just because the Tea Party failed them; there's' a huge group of people who have been waiting since the second Obama took office to cast a vote against him, denying him a second term. 2012 is going to be insane.,

If a great deal of the Democratic base is being as dismissive about the potential GOP ubervictory in Congress and even the WH as people are in this thread, that's really scary.

you are such an inconsistent poster that solely uses stats to peddle only your bullshit that its humorous to watch you

 

[worldrunover]

*Wakes up, reads about Super Congress*

 

[PantherLotus]

*high five*

You sir, have good taste in political milfs.

Hey hey I called that shit a week ago

 

[balladofwindfishes]

is the Super Congress even Constitutional?

 

[Plinko]

This "Super Congress" may be the worst idea I've heard in years. That would be WAY too much power for a small panel to have.

 

[PantherLotus]

1. Stop worrying about the mystical super congress. That's bullshit too.
2. Obama's remark about his legal staff unable to find justification does not mean it's "off the table."
3. FWIW, I think it's already too late. I'd downgrade the US right now.
4. We should see one last economic warning later today as the Asian markets open up and react to Obama/Boehner.

 

[Pctx]

is the Super Congress even Constitutional?

At this stage of the game.... does it matter? Everyone in DC thinks the silent majority are peons. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if they are actually serious.

 

[Zeliard]

The political comedians will have a field day with this one. The jokes write themselves.