The district Kapanke lost in is hardly Republican leaning. It's a swing district that Kapanke won with 2% of the vote in 2008. In 2010, Kapanke lost in the same district (for a congressional seat) and Barrett lost the district by 0.7%. Obama got over 60%. GOP stronghold!
Yet despite Obama's massive advantage in 2008, Kapanake still won in that year. Then, in 2010 Walker won in that district, albeit by less than a percentage point (Feingold actually won the district in the Senate election). Kapanake lost his election by only 3 percentage points - and it was not exactly the same district. From the looks of it the house district encompasses much of south western Wisconsin.
What that indicates to me is that enough voters were willing to split their tickets between national and local elections to allow a district that went heavily for the Democrats in a national election to remain competative for Republicans in state elections. After the recall election it appears that has changed - at least for now. In terms of a recall, Scott Walker went from having a district that he could count on giving him at least a slim majority of support to one that will vote againt him by a ten percentage point margin if voters vote the same way as they did in the recall. That is a huge drop off of support.
Looking at the numbers, it doesn't look like any of the other districts save one did any better for the Republicans.
In district 18, Scott Walker won by nearly 16 percentage points in 2010, while in 2011 the Democratic challenger won by 2 percentage points.
In district 14, Walker won by nearly 17 percentage points in 2010, but the incumbant Republican won with only about 4 percentage points this time.
In districts 8 and 10, the margin of victory by Walker compared to the Republican dropped by between 2 and 3 percentage points in each.
District 2 was the only district where the Republican incumbant did better than Walker in 2010, and only by 4 percentage points.
These are all districts that a Republican running statewide needs to either break even in or win decisively to have a chance. The fact that Democrats cut the overall advantage of the Republicans from 13 percent to 6 percent does not bode well for the Republican party. That is why Nate tweeted last night that Democrats would be nuts not to go ahead with a recall of Walker.
He expanded on his reasoning more today:
http://community.nytimes.com/comments/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10/wisc-results-suggest-recall-of-governor-would-be-close/
As for Hopper, the guy was cheating on his wife and no longer lived in the district. It's hilarious that the race was as close as it was.
I've heard this used as an excuse, but if you look at the overall pattern, the results were not out of line. Even if you flip the results to give Hopper a narrow victory, the margins would still show a healthy swing towards the Democrats.
The end of the day, the Democrats didn't make significant gains. Down 3 seats or down 1 seat, the Republicans still control the three branches and conservatives hold the state supreme court. All the sound and fury accomplished exactly nothing. Even these gains are likely to be short-lived if the redistricting maps are as partisan as believed.
Even if the Democrats retook the Senate, they still could not have reversed any of the controversial legislation passed under Walker because Republicans still control the two other branches of state government. The 3 seat benchmark was always a somewhat artificial yardstick that one side or another was going to use to claim victory, but I don't see how it would have any effect on actual legislation.
Like I said before, I doubt the Republicans are relieved about the results from Tuesday night. Especially if Democrats have their gubinatorial recall effort coincide with a presidential election, which should help Democrats further because the turnout in Presidential election years favors the Democrats, they have an excellent chance of recalling Walker given his unpopularity and extrapolating from the numbers in the recent recall elections. If the recall occurs on another date, on the othe hand, I would give the Democrats somewhat less of a chance. Still, I doubt Republicans are breathing easy about the matter.