I said a few weeks ago that the new UI claims were being distorted due to a disconnect between the timing the auto retooling and the seasonal adjustment meant to account for them. I was looking to the week when the ajustments ended for a better reading on the trend.
This week is when they ended.
Initial jobless claims, for the first time since early April, are under 400,000, at 395,000 in the August 6 week in what is a positive indication of job market improvement. The four-week average of 405,000, down 3,250 in the week, is the lowest since mid April and is down now for the sixth week in a row. A month-ago comparison with early July shows a 13,000 decline in what hints at improvement for the August employment report.
Continuing claims also show improvement, down 60,000 in data for the July 30 week to 3.688 million. The four-week average is down for a third week in a row at 3.719 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers slipped one tenth to 2.9 percent.
Good news.