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[Loudninja]

Judge OKs Recall Election Against Author Of AZ Immigration Law

An Arizona judge has given the go-ahead for a recall election of state Sen. Russell Pearce (R), who authored the state's controversial immigration law.

On Friday, Superior Court Judge Hugh Hegyi rejected a challenge of the recall by Pearce's attorney Lisa Hauser, who argued that a number of the signatures didn't meet state requirements.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsme...election_of_author_of_az_immigrat.php?ref=fpb

 

[gcubed]

Is it possible that we might have a possible 50/50 split between delegates over Perry/Romney? Or maybe 33/33/33 split over Perry/Bachmann/Romney? This looks like a truly divisive primary.

The Bachmann voters will jump to Perry when they finally realize she is a sinking ship

 

[eznark]

The Bachmann voters will jump to Perry when they finally realize she is a sinking ship

Perry will strip votes from conservatives who are holding their nose and voting for the electable but disgusting Romney. He will also strip votes from those who are standing on principle and voting for the batshit insane Bachmann.

Perry seems to straddle the line between batshit and electable.

I predict Perry absolutely runs away with the nomination..

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Perry will strip votes from conservatives who are holding their nose and voting for the electable but disgusting Romney. He will also strip votes from those who are standing on principle and voting for the batshit insane Bachmann.

Perry seems to straddle the line between batshit and electable.

I predict Perry absolutely runs away with the nomination..

What would you quantify as running away with?

 

[eznark]

What would you quantify as running away with?

I don't know, the timeline seems all fucked up now. Aren't there actually primaries in December? Suffice to say that there will be no drama going into the convention, I guess.

 

[ToxicAdam]

The Bachmann voters will jump to Perry when they finally realize she is a sinking ship

Yes, and the 'winner-take-all' nature of the Republican primaries hastens that ship sinking. Although, I think she can ride her Iowa win (if she can hold on to it) all the way to Super Tuesday.

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/


If it's still a race going into the second 'Super Tuesday', that would be a first for the Republicans.

 

[besada]

Yes, and the 'winner-take-all' nature of the Republican primaries hastens that ship sinking. Although, I think she can ride her Iowa win (if she can hold on to it) all the way to Super Tuesday.

I think she'll start to fall after NH, but she seems like the type to stay in long after the fat lady sings.

Oh, I also predict that Perry will do better than most people here think he will in NH. Not win it, but not get blown out either. One of the things some people don't know is that his primary campaign consultant is from NH, and knows the territory intimately. And NH has always been about hand-shaking the right folks more than political ideology. Like Iowa, they're more obsessed with their ability as king makers than actually following their political ideals.

And if they can sign off on Pat Buchanan and George Bush, I don't see it as the stumbling block for Perry that many do.

Edit: When are the NH primaries?. They used to be in March, but they've crept so far back that I'm wondering if we'll get them in December.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

I think she'll start to fall after NH, but she seems like the type to stay in long after the fat lady sings.

Oh, I also predict that Perry will do better than most people here think he will in NH. Not win it, but not get blown out either. One of the things some people don't know is that his primary campaign consultant is from NH, and knows the territory intimately. And NH has always been about hand-shaking the right folks more than political ideology. Like Iowa, they're more obsessed with their ability as king makers than actually following their political ideals.

And if they can sign off on Pat Buchanan and George Bush, I don't see it as the stumbling block for Perry that many do.

Edit: When are the NH primaries?. They used to be in March, but they've crept so far back that I'm wondering if we'll get them in December.

Jan. 24, according to the link TA posted.

How did Iowa and New Hampshire get to be king-making states anyway? It seems kind of preposterous to me as a New Yorker.

 

[Alcibiades]

I'm laughing my ass of here:

http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary...ay-aide-to-out-gop-prez-candidate-fred-karger

 

[eznark]

Jan. 24, according to the link TA posted.

How did Iowa and New Hampshire get to be king-making states anyway? It seems kind of preposterous to me as a New Yorker.

I actually thought Iowa was in December this year.

I don't know how you really quantify running away with a primary. Obama/Hilary came down to the wire, I don't anticipate the GOP nomination being anything like that.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Perry will strip votes from conservatives who are holding their nose and voting for the electable but disgusting Romney. He will also strip votes from those who are standing on principle and voting for the batshit insane Bachmann.

Perry seems to straddle the line between batshit and electable.

I predict Perry absolutely runs away with the nomination..

Cain, Santorum, Paul, and Newt should just quit. This is a battle of the crazie(ers)

 

[Evlar]

Yeah, Perry's going to win. He's got the money and he's got the creds. My defunct Republican evangelical self would be going all wobbly over him.

EDIT: Win the nomination, I mean. Barring any [literal] skeletons in his closet.

 

[Mercury Fred]

I'm laughing my ass of here:

http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary...ay-aide-to-out-gop-prez-candidate-fred-karger

Omg!

You really should have posted the pic...

 

[Dude Abides]

I'm laughing my ass of here:

http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary...ay-aide-to-out-gop-prez-candidate-fred-karger

I don't get it. Was he supposed to run away screaming from the gay cooties? This gay-baiting stuff about Bachmann's husband is pretty distasteful.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

I actually thought Iowa was in December this year.

I don't know how you really quantify running away with a primary. Obama/Hilary came down to the wire, I don't anticipate the GOP nomination being anything like that.

I guess you have to count the delegates? Or something?

I don't know how to feel about the assertion that the primary is likely to be uncompetitive. It seems intuitively correct, but I don't know that I'm prepared to write Romney off so easily. NH will probably sort out who of Perry or Romney prevails.

 

[apana]

The scary thing is one of these people stands a decent chance at actually becoming President. If that were the case then I think Romney would be the best. Imagine President Ron Paul or President Bachmann!

 

[Mercury Fred]

I don't get it. Was he supposed to run away screaming from the gay cooties? This gay-baiting stuff about Bachmann's husband is pretty distasteful.

Distasteful?

The guy is a flaming homosexual who runs torture chambers that he calls "ex gay" clinics. I actually think people are being much too soft on him.

 

[Evlar]

I don't get it. Was he supposed to run away screaming from the gay cooties? This gay-baiting stuff about Bachmann's husband is pretty distasteful.

I agree.

 

[Alcibiades]

I think they realized things were getting crazy with the early-start dates so everything is moving back to February, at least for the first four: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina (about a week apart).

Then it is Super Tuesday and on from there.

BUT, due to states looking to do budget savings, the primaries are going to be really scattered and I think California is going to wait until the summer to do theirs. Also, I heard some (or most) of them were moving to proportional allocation of delegates. This could end up crazier than Obama VS Clinton.

I'd love to this drag on into the summer if only to give a voice to pro-legalization candidates like Johnson (who I hope will finally get invited to a debate at some point). Also I hope Rudy jumps in the race because he actually has a shot at the socially liberal Republicans in California and the northeast.

 

[eznark]

Distasteful?

The guy is a flaming homosexual who runs torture chambers that he calls "ex gay" clinics. I actually think people are being much too soft on him.

That seems like it should be offensive.

 

[Klocker]

I don't get it. Was he supposed to run away screaming from the gay cooties? This gay-baiting stuff about Bachmann's husband is pretty distasteful.

Yes, piling on is distasteful but really...how many of these anti-gay, closet homosexuals do we need to suffer from the "morally superior" right before we can say, just shut the fuck up already?

 

[Mardak]

Which ones? The Ames poll is a pay for play; ballots cost $30 and Paul handed out thousands to supporters he bussed in. So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it, it just shows he can buy votes (which is actually pretty handy).

Why do you only point out Paul when everyone else was doing that?

At least Ron Paul did not hire a grammy-winning country singer where people had to vote before Bachamnn allowed them to attend the performance. Or required people being bused in to sign a form pledging to vote for Pawlenty.

 

[Alcibiades]

I don't get it. Was he supposed to run away screaming from the gay cooties? This gay-baiting stuff about Bachmann's husband is pretty distasteful.

it's funny partly because the guy looks, if not gay, then quite effeminate in that picture and partly because of the headline (everyone assumes he is a closet gay, partly because of the string of anti-gay gays that have been exposed over the years and partly because of his mannerisms).

 

[ToxicAdam]

You guys are about as over-the-top with the Perry love as the media. Let's see how this guy handles the pressure of a national election before you start throwing him the keys to the car.

I still only pin him at a 30 percent chance.

Why do you only point out Paul when everyone else was doing that?

His point is that the straw poll is more a sign of organizational support than one that can determine the mood of the electorate.

 

[Jeels]

Cain, Santorum, Paul, and Newt should just quit. This is a battle of the crazie(ers)

If that were the case, then Cain would have a higher chance. This is the battle of the crazies with money.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

You guys are about as over-the-top with the Perry love as the media. Let's see how this guy handles the pressure of a national election before you start throwing him the keys to the car.

I still only pin him at a 30 percent chance.

Where's the other 70%?

 

[Mercury Fred]

That seems like it should be offensive.

What?

I'm gay and there are people who are totally flaming and that's OK. Rip Taylor, Fred Schneider, Jim J. Bullock, Liberace. I kind of love how flamingly over the top they are. I'd love it in Marcus Bachmann too if he weren't a self-hating monster who preys on gay people like a greedy, bottom-feeding vampire who can't make himself human no matter how much blood he drains from innocent people.

 

[besada]

How did Iowa and New Hampshire get to be king-making states anyway? It seems kind of preposterous to me as a New Yorker.

Early primaries and a willingness to keep moving them up whenever any state encroaches on their territory. I'm with you on the preposterousness of it. You'd think it would be California, New York, Texas, and Florida -- considering those four states produce 151 electoral votes and are fairly well balanced in terms of right and left. But every time someone decides to take away the primacy of NH and Iowa, they just move the primaries to an earlier date.

NH in March was rough, but NH in January is like torture for candidates.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Where's the other 70%?

Robo-candidate 3000. Haven't I railed enough on how much of a lock I think Mittens is yet? I've been saying it since March, although I didn't forsee Perry getting in.

 

[Alcibiades]

I think Perry is seriously being overestimated... Even if Romney loses the first several primaries and is deemed a loser by the media, he has the money to stay in the race and compete in the Northeast, Mountain West, and more moderate Midwest states where Perry will crash and burn. Remember some primaries allow independents and democrats to vote in the Republican primary.

 

[Dude Abides]

Distasteful?

The guy is a flaming homosexual who runs torture chambers that he calls "ex gay" clinics. I actually think people are being much too soft on him.

I realize you're in the no quarter for political enemies camp. I personally don't think politics is helped much by snickering about how a candidate's husband is a big ol' queer.

 

[besada]

Robo-candidate 3000. Haven't I railed enough on how much of a lock I think Mittens is yet? I've been saying it since March, although I didn't forsee Perry getting in.

Which is weird, because he literally made his first stump speech immediately following the inauguration. Bush came home and people greeted him at the airport, and rather than spend his time welcoming Bush home, he launched into a stump speech about how terrible Obama was. That was when it seemed obvious to me that he'd get in.

The rest was just him being coy and letting others eat negative media while he held back and marshaled his money. It's why the day after his announcement he already had a better website than most of the other candidates and a commercial that was clearly filmed months ago.

And I think you give Mittens way too much credit. He couldn't beat McCain in his own region last time around. Short of the sudden implosion of the Tea Party (which I'd love as a citizen but be dismayed by as a political theater junkie) I don't see how Mittens gets over.

 

[Mardak]

Not to put an undue amount of faith in prediction markets, but Ron Paul is not doing well in them.

Prediction markets change as time passes. Those making predictions know that the media has a bias against Ron Paul and mocks his campaign, and when that changes, the predictions will favor Ron Paul.

The candidates on the stage for debates have already gone from ignoring Ron Paul to laughing at Ron Paul and now they are fighting Ron Paul.

The media is one step behind.

The next step is of course winning.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Distasteful?

The guy is a flaming homosexual who runs torture chambers that he calls "ex gay" clinics. I actually think people are being much too soft on him.

You have no evidence of him being gay outside of reinforcing gay stereotypes about gay people (he has a lisp, he must be gay!). It's distasteful. The guy is a POS who attacks gays on a personal level. But that doesn't justify attacking him on a personal level with absolutely no facts or evidence.

 

[Klocker]

I think Perry is seriously being overestimated... Even if Romney loses the first several primaries and is deemed a loser by the media, he has the money to stay in the race and compete in the Northeast, Mountain West, and more moderate Midwest states where Perry will crash and burn. Remember some primaries allow independents and democrats to vote in the Republican primary.

yea Perry is gonna be the nominee no doubt in my mind.

I only hope he continues with the evangelical trip so independents can choose to be rational and block the enlistment of what appears would be a Christian theocracy to our government.

 

[Mercury Fred]

I realize you're in the no quarter for political enemies camp. I personally don't think politics is helped much by snickering about how a candidate's husband is a big ol' queer.

Snickering?

The dude makes a living torturing gay people. People need to be focused on how disgusting this is until the guy is completely and totally destroyed.

You have no evidence of him being gay outside of reinforcing gay stereotypes about gay people (he has a lisp, he must be gay!). It's distasteful. The guy is a POS who attacks gays on a personal level. But that doesn't justify attacking him on a personal level with absolutely no facts or evidence.

If someone runs an "ex-gay" clinic, then they no longer deserve any fair treatment or any benefit of the doubt. Many who go through these torture chambers end up killing themselves afterward. Bachmann is harmful, dangerous and evil. Bounties have been posted for proof of his homosexuality and I'm sure something will turn up sooner or later. In the meantime, I'm going to continue with the assumption that this scum is a closet case.

 

[eznark]

What?

I'm gay and there are people who are totally flaming and that's OK. Rip Taylor, Fred Schneider, Jim J. Bullock, Liberace. I kind of love how flamingly over the top they are. I'd love it in Marcus Bachmann too if he weren't a self-hating monster who preys on gay people like a greedy, bottom-feeding vampire who can't make himself human no matter how much blood he drains from innocent people.

I actually thought "flaming" was considered offensive. Clearly I'm not up on the pc policing.

Plus, is there any evidence he is gay other than that he "acts" gay? I mean, I thought I wasn't supposed to call people out when they waved with limp wrists and spoke with a lisp?

 

[Evlar]

Hold on to that optimism, Mardak. It isn't going to last.

 

[Dude Abides]

Prediction markets change as time passes. Those making predictions know that the media has a bias against Ron Paul and mocks his campaign, and when that changes, the predictions will favor Ron Paul.

The candidates on the stage for debates have already gone from ignoring Ron Paul to laughing at Ron Paul and now they are fighting Ron Paul.

The media is one step behind.

The next step is of course winning.

Were you around in 2008? The same thing happened then as is happening now. Paul supporters have the enthusiasm but they don't have the numbers. His ceiling is no more than 15% in a primary, maybe a bit higher in a caucus.

 

[eznark]

You guys are about as over-the-top with the Perry love as the media.

Your posts are kind of boggling my mind today. I don't think a kind word has been said about Perry in pages.

 

[Mike M]

Why do you only point out Paul when everyone else was doing that?

At least Ron Paul did not hire a grammy-winning country singer where people had to vote before Bachamnn allowed them to attend the performance. Or required people being bused in to sign a form pledging to vote for Pawlenty.

Well it wouldn't make much sense for Ron Paul to bus people in and make them sign a pledge to support Pawlenty, now would it?

 

[Mgoblue201]

Perry will strip votes from conservatives who are holding their nose and voting for the electable but disgusting Romney. He will also strip votes from those who are standing on principle and voting for the batshit insane Bachmann.

Perry seems to straddle the line between batshit and electable.

I predict Perry absolutely runs away with the nomination..

Perry will obviously excite the True Believer, but I think that his electability quotient is something that's generally assumed rather than proven. He has rarely had to deal with anything that's out of his element. And although Romney doesn't inspire much love, I question how many voters there truly are waiting for someone like Perry. This is still the party that elected John McCain three years ago. I'll wait until he actually has to run a campaign before deciding whether Perry is The One.

 

[Mortrialus]

Would you really classify Bush as a "far right guy religious nutbag"?

He isn't a fundamentalist and isn't nearly as insane as Perry is in regards to religion, but Bush was really religious. His openly religious nature galvanized the religious right under his banner during both elections. When questioned who his favorite philosopher was, he tactlessly stated "Jesus Christ." Bush mentioned that upon meeting Vladimir Putin, he knew he was trustworthy because Putin wore his mother's crucifix necklace. He was on the "Get Intelligent Design into schools" bandwagon for a while. That said, Bush believes in evolution so that is one positive.

I actually thought "flaming" was considered offensive. Clearly I'm not up on the pc policing.

Plus, is there any evidence he is gay other than that he "acts" gay? I mean, I thought I wasn't supposed to call people out when they waved with limp wrists and spoke with a lisp?

Talking about homosexuality and saying "We all feel the temptations", is a pretty gay thing for one to say.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Your posts are kind of boggling my mind today. I don't think a kind word has been said about Perry in pages.

I was talking about the predictions of his success, not his personal attributes. I counted at least 7 users that think he will win in the past two pages.

 

[Clevinger]

Snickering?

The dude makes a living torturing gay people. People need to be focused on how disgusting this is until the guy is completely and totally destroyed.

And that can be done without going, "Haha, look at the way he stretches out his hands. He's so gaaaaay!" Or like Dan Savage mocking his lisp for four minutes on his radio show.

I think Bachmann is human garbage, but it just seems odd for liberals and gay people to do this.

 

[TacticalFox88]

That said, Bush believes in evolution so that is one positive.

Holy shit.

 

[eznark]

I was talking about the predictions of his success, not his personal attributes. I counted at least 7 users that think he will win in the past two pages.

I think he'll win, absolutely. I also think the Phillies will win the World Series. I don't see those as statements even of approval much less of love.

 

[Enron]

I can't wait for the shine to wear off on Perry. I'm already sick of hearing about him.

 

[Dude Abides]

Snickering?

The dude makes a living torturing gay people. People need to be focused on how disgusting this is until the guy is completely and totally destroyed.

You better step up the ground war, then, because I don't think tittering blog posts about how queeny he is are going to yield the complete and utter destruction you seek.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I think once you call Homosexuality "barbaric" all bets are off the table.