If she didn't come off as a complete moron, they may have.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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If she didn't come off as a complete moron, they may have.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Meh. Summer is always bad for Obama. He'll break away after the conventions. And he's still leading.
:lol
lol
Ice burn.
I can't see how "you didn't build that" out of context = Romney winning the election.
It is true though, Obama isn't out of the woods yet. I don't give a damn if it's summer or not.
RustyNails
Member
You just wait till Romney picks Portman and he will start leading obama in Ohio 90-10
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
You're trying to make a case that Ohio will go red based on...a gut feeling?
Dude, most the midwest other than Indiana is going Obama. Obama is actually pretty popular in Ohio, especially in the north.
We'll see what 538 thinks in a week or so. At this point, I'm expecting the Euro crisis to resolve itself (nonexplosively) before the election, which will give Obama a significant bump when the market prices economic Armageddon back out of its projections.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I'm amazed that people still take PD seriously.
There is either/or:
1) He is trololololing
2) He is wrong
There is either/or:
1) He is trololololing
2) He is wrong
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
of course he's trolling. but I like to argue anyway
if you play the numbers game, there's just no fucking way Obama loses the states that are up for "debate" right now. Just Ohio and PA alone pretty much seals the deal for Obama.
if you play the numbers game, there's just no fucking way Obama loses the states that are up for "debate" right now. Just Ohio and PA alone pretty much seals the deal for Obama.
PhoenixDark
Banned
19%? Give me a break. Obama might get 6% of republicans, as Romney gets around the same amount of democrats.
Romney has had an atrocious month, perhaps even two, yet is still within striking distance and is narrowing the gap. The fact is that Obama is running out of time, and after the Olympics this race will effectively be over unless Obama's camp has some major bombshell (as Halperin suggests). With another anemic jobs report on the way in a week plus these horrible GDP numbers, Obama should be glad the focus is mainly on the Olympics right now.
Beer Monkey
Member
Women aren't going to FLOCK to a female Republican candidate unless she is pro-choice. Only the base will be attracted to the typical anti-abortion Republican female.
Who's trying hard now?
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
lol. You're the equivalent of diablos in regards to your pessimism, despite the fact that Romney is the GOP John Kerry in this election.
I guess you and Sullivan are both wrong then.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Except diablos actually wants Obama to win.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
True that.
PhoenixDark
Banned
John Kerry would have beaten Bush if the economy was this bad.
Do you ever get tired of DOOM?
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
He's worse than that. Kerry lost because we were at war, which pretty much guarantees victory for the incumbent.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Kerry would've beaten Bush if he was someone that people actually gave a fuck about
PD's still butthurt is gal Clinton didn't win. Poor guy
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
lol what? Bush was one of the most despised Presidents at the time. Iraq had taken a huge turn with disapproval. It wasn't that Bush was such a great President, it was that like Romney, liberals weren't turning out in droves for Kerry. Do you even want Obama to win?
Kerry would've beaten Bush if he was someone that people actually gave a fuck about
PD's still butthurt is gal Clinton didn't win. Poor guy
I am seriously beginning to think that is exactly it. That he somehow believes that Clinton would be more liberal for progressive in the White House than Obama.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
PD needs to stick to a narrative, FOR HIS AVATAR
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
You mean the less than $250 million grossing Avatar?
ViperVisor
Member
As was mentioned on earlier page Iraq was only turning but had not turned.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
Aaron Strife
Banned
Kerry was leading Bush at this point. Romney's not even doing that.
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
I used to be a libertarian until discussions with friends and forums steered me away from the crazy. So I suppose that it does happen.
Karl Rove: Romney Blew It In London
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/karl-rove-romney-blew-it-in-london-video.php?ref=fpa
I think we might have to tie him to a chair a Clockwork Orange him to the Hillary fanficiton miniseries on USA.PD's still butthurt is gal Clinton didn't win. Poor guy
You make it sound like he's not already watching it, lost in some dream-like state that makes him think it's real for the duration of the episode.
"his resilience says one thing to me: he must now be the favorite."
What?
I love that what will cost him the election in your view, is the "total failure of the economy", and one out-of-context sentence, that no one in the general public really is aware even happened. Presidential elections tighten, I would hardly call Romney's performance "resilient", more like inept.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Yeah Sullivan is all kinds of wut
I barely remember that LovingSteam. Also, I can't believe I've been posting on GAF this long.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I was the same, in some sense, except for voting for McCain and Bush.
I was a social conservative, Christian, just a little over five years ago. Then I started to use regularly a little thing called the "Internet".
Now I'm a liberal who spits in disgust at religion or any type of conservative viewpoint. Whether that's a "good" or "bad" thing, I'm not really sure, nor do I frankly care, unless, that view point is directly contradicted by real world facts and I adjust my views accordingly.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
You and me both, bro. It's crazy.
Right. And the payroll tax is quite regressive. If we could replace the payroll tax with a high-end tax increase, you could reduce the burden on low-to-middle class households while mitigating the decrease in revenue or, from your perspective, reducing inequality. Notwithstanding, the locus of any potential economic plan should concentrate on repairing our deteriorating infrastructure. Not only would it spur economic activity in the near term, it would bolster our future capacity. It's gradually becoming an albatross on the economy.
Although the sentiment on the electoral consequences is correct, a point I've long iterated, Romney's performance isn't inconsequential. Understandably, this thread focuses heavily on the election. But the candidates' respective performances transcend the election. Political and governmental elites, bureaucrats, and foreign leaders are watching intently. And I imagine they're disconcerted at the prospect of a Romney Administration.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Kerry lost due to a few thousand votes in Ohio. If the economy was this bad in 2004, he likely wins the state and thus the presidency. It wasn't about enthusiasm - even a highly motivated base would not have changed the electoral map at the time. Like Romney, Kerry's hopes were pinned on Ohio. I think people re-write history when they argue Kerry lost because he didn't enthuse the base. He lost due to a few thousand independent and moderate votes in Ohio
It's amazing what the internet can do to some. Some people blame college professors for turning people liberal, but I think the internet has a larger hand in that, lol. It helped me along, too. I still think the catalyst was someone in real life, though. A friend of mine I went to school with was insanely liberal and raised by liberal parents, etc. I went to a conservative college, and so everyone else had that viewpoint except him and maybe a handful of others. Whenever he expressed disagreement in what they said he'd just get dog piled by countless people, but in my mind he still emerged victorious. I'm sure in most of their minds they won some of those arguments, but not in mine.
That was part of my turn. After that, the internet took over. I would see so many discussions that mirrored that real life experience on places like here. People who talked like I used to believe would just get annihilated, and I just couldn't stay that way any longer. Once the interest took hold I had to keep going with it. I was raised by a hardcore conservative family, and my dad lives and breathes politics. So, part of the push was just to see if the things he had been believing all my life were really true.
Which he didn't get, likely because he was a crappy candidate that didn't get anyone enthusiastic. Look, outside circumstances do play a large role, and sometimes you can elect people that aren't charismatic or well loved, but for the most part I think you still need to elect someone. People have to believe at least a little bit in who they're voting for. If you don't inspire anything like that, then you've got an uphill battle.
He's a witch! Burn HIM!!
Is Sullivan's opinion material? Although I don't read him regularly, I don't mind his analysis. But does he have any expertise on electoral studies? Most who systematically study elections estimate that Obama's a modest favorite.
Late to the party, but I applaud your source for this impeccable chart. Subtle, misleading colors used to drive home the point, and yet you can either feign ignorance or try to argue semantics when called out. Brilliant. Initially I was a bit concerned with the source, thegatewaypundit.com. Nothing wrong with the numbers (though they are from the government, so who knows), but the domain name didn't inspire too much confidence. But then I checked the site, and it's all good.
Oregon Man Gets 30 Days in Jail for Collecting Rainwater
Like Clockwork… Business Owner Harassed by Goons After Appearing in anti-Obama Ad
It’s an Obama World… US May Dip Its Flag to British Leaders at Opening Ceremony
Romney Questions London’s Readiness for Olympics – Media Has a Conniption
Romney Pulls Ahead in Presidential Tracking Poll – Leads Obama By 4 Points (48-44)
Hilarious!… Obama’s Latest Ad: “I Like Small Business & Capitalism… Honest!” (Video)
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
They'll probably stay home.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
I went from being liberal to in transition of being well I don't know. All I know is that my views are much more radical than most. I don't like defining myself. I could say that I am now a socialist (syndalism). Though of course I would never advocate it unless the world went to shit.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
That's just not true. A great example is Kerry's testimony before Congress during the Vietnam War. A moving speech.
What did we want in 2004? To bring the troops home. How much more poignant can it get? There was no lack of enthusiasm for Kerry.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Empty Vessel in particular has changed a lot of my beliefs about government and such on here.
I mean, I was always staunchly socially liberal and fairly economically liberal as well but just reading some of the perspectives on how the economy and the government can be linked with regards to society and social change has been eye opening. The danger is that I really want to believe in these ideas because they're so appealing to me as an engineer.
There were, however, a significant portion of people who were convinced that Kerry was going to win and they voted Green to "teach him a lesson". "We like you, but not that much"
I mean, I was always staunchly socially liberal and fairly economically liberal as well but just reading some of the perspectives on how the economy and the government can be linked with regards to society and social change has been eye opening. The danger is that I really want to believe in these ideas because they're so appealing to me as an engineer.
There were, however, a significant portion of people who were convinced that Kerry was going to win and they voted Green to "teach him a lesson". "We like you, but not that much"
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Similar to me. Empty Vessel is essentially who Karl Marx and Noam Chomsky should be. He should start his own blog or write online books or something.
Other posters seem to disagree.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=94344
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=391015
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=409978
Unless you think labelling everyone who believes climate change is being caused by mankind as "anti-progress, socialistic neo-hippies" is a coherent argument.
BotoxAgent
Member
I usually agree with Sullivan. His arguments seem sound--Romney's a total gaffe machine and is unlikeable, yet he's ticking up or at least the race is stable. Obama is being hurled by a huge disinformation campaign...and will only get worse with SuperPACs. So Sullivan is not totally off base here. If Romney's not being completely undone in poll numbers now, it will be even harder to do later post-convention.
But please convince me I am wrong :-(
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