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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
We Ask America - a GOP pollster - showed Obama leading Romney by 8 in Ohio. 48-40.

They found 18% of Republicans going for Obama. They actually called them back to make sure they had it right and they did.

Romney's so screwed.
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lol

Ice burn.

cartoon_soldier said:
I see Romney as favorite to win the election right now, with the current state of the economy + the Obama out of context comments.

Sullivan agrees

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/07/romney-is-gaining.html
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I can't see how "you didn't build that" out of context = Romney winning the election.

It is true though, Obama isn't out of the woods yet. I don't give a damn if it's summer or not.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Aaron Strife said:
We Ask America - a GOP pollster - showed Obama leading Romney by 8 in Ohio. 48-40.

They found 18% of Republicans going for Obama. They actually called them back to make sure they had it right and they did.

Romney's so screwed.
Click to expand...

You just wait till Romney picks Portman and he will start leading obama in Ohio 90-10
 
D

DeathbyVolcano

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Since when is republicans going home to the republican nominee analogous to the ridiculous notion of women flocking to McCain due to Palin? Try harder next time
Click to expand...

You're trying to make a case that Ohio will go red based on...a gut feeling?

Dude, most the midwest other than Indiana is going Obama. Obama is actually pretty popular in Ohio, especially in the north.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Ohio is looking more and more like it's going to be safe for Obama. Romney has no realistic path to victory without Ohio. Giving Obama Ohio and the 2 split votes in Nebraska, Romney could win VA, FL, IA, NV, and CO and still lose.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
I see Romney as favorite to win the election right now, with the current state of the economy + the Obama out of context comments.

Sullivan agrees

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/07/romney-is-gaining.html
Click to expand...

We'll see what 538 thinks in a week or so. At this point, I'm expecting the Euro crisis to resolve itself (nonexplosively) before the election, which will give Obama a significant bump when the market prices economic Armageddon back out of its projections.
 
D

DeathbyVolcano

Banned
of course he's trolling. but I like to argue anyway

if you play the numbers game, there's just no fucking way Obama loses the states that are up for "debate" right now. Just Ohio and PA alone pretty much seals the deal for Obama.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
reilo said:
I forgot that there's never been an instance in US presidential elections where a candidate gets a significant chunk of voters to break for them from across party lines. That has never happened before, you got me.

They always come home.
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19%? Give me a break. Obama might get 6% of republicans, as Romney gets around the same amount of democrats.

Romney has had an atrocious month, perhaps even two, yet is still within striking distance and is narrowing the gap. The fact is that Obama is running out of time, and after the Olympics this race will effectively be over unless Obama's camp has some major bombshell (as Halperin suggests). With another anemic jobs report on the way in a week plus these horrible GDP numbers, Obama should be glad the focus is mainly on the Olympics right now.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
PhoenixDark said:
19%? Give me a break. Obama might get 6% of republicans, as Romney gets around the same amount of democrats.

Romney has had an atrocious month, perhaps even two, yet is still within striking distance and is narrowing the gap. The fact is that Obama is running out of time, and after the Olympics this race will effectively be over unless Obama's camp has some major bombshell (as Halperin suggests). With another anemic jobs report on the way in a week plus these horrible GDP numbers, Obama should be glad the focus is mainly on the Olympics right now.
Click to expand...

Who's trying hard now?
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
19%? Give me a break. Obama might get 6% of republicans, as Romney gets around the same amount of democrats.

Romney has had an atrocious month, perhaps even two, yet is still within striking distance and is narrowing the gap. The fact is that Obama is running out of time, and after the Olympics this race will effectively be over unless Obama's camp has some major bombshell (as Halperin suggests). With another anemic jobs report on the way in a week plus these horrible GDP numbers, Obama should be glad the focus is mainly on the Olympics right now.
Click to expand...

lol. You're the equivalent of diablos in regards to your pessimism, despite the fact that Romney is the GOP John Kerry in this election.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PhoenixDark said:
19%? Give me a break. Obama might get 6% of republicans, as Romney gets around the same amount of democrats.

Romney has had an atrocious month, perhaps even two, yet is still within striking distance and is narrowing the gap. The fact is that Obama is running out of time, and after the Olympics this race will effectively be over unless Obama's camp has some major bombshell (as Halperin suggests). With another anemic jobs report on the way in a week plus these horrible GDP numbers, Obama should be glad the focus is mainly on the Olympics right now.
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Do you ever get tired of DOOM?
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
John Kerry would have beaten Bush if the economy was this bad.
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lol what? Bush was one of the most despised Presidents at the time. Iraq had taken a huge turn with disapproval. It wasn't that Bush was such a great President, it was that like Romney, liberals weren't turning out in droves for Kerry. Do you even want Obama to win?

DeathbyVolcano said:
Kerry would've beaten Bush if he was someone that people actually gave a fuck about

PD's still butthurt is gal Clinton didn't win. Poor guy :(
Click to expand...

I am seriously beginning to think that is exactly it. That he somehow believes that Clinton would be more liberal for progressive in the White House than Obama.
 
V

ViperVisor

Member
As was mentioned on earlier page Iraq was only turning but had not turned.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

0vKsU.jpg
 
D

David Incorporated Esq.

Member
Cyan said:
Vote swung, I doubt it. Some people have changed their opinions based on stuff said in this thread, though really, that's not the point. Largely it's just sturm und drang like most of GAF.
Click to expand...
I used to be a libertarian until discussions with friends and forums steered me away from the crazy. So I suppose that it does happen.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Karl Rove: Romney Blew It In London
“You have to shake your head. Gov. Romney went to the London Olympics at invitation of the International Olympic Committee. It was a great opportunity for him to talk about his experiences, look, he stepped away from the leadership of Bain Capital for three years in order to step in and save the floundering Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in 2002. I bet there is lots of stories he could be talking about what a wonderful experience that was and how uplifting and inspiring it was. Instead he got stuck making a, somehow or another that the comments the Brits took as insult, and walked it back pretty quickly and walked it back adroitly but nonetheless the damage was done.
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http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/karl-rove-romney-blew-it-in-london-video.php?ref=fpa
 
C

codhand

Member
ClovingWestbrook said:
If you mean during this election, the no. If you mean since joining NeoGAF, then yes. Ask a few folks around here. I voted Bush in 2004, McCain in 2008, will be voting Obama 2012. Came to NeoGAF being against gay marriage, against a public option/universal health care, supporting the GOP. That isn't the case any longer and most of that metamorphosis took place during my time in PoliGAF.
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:_)

faith in humanity +1
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Chichikov said:
I think we might have to tie him to a chair a Clockwork Orange him to the Hillary fanficiton miniseries on USA.
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You make it sound like he's not already watching it, lost in some dream-like state that makes him think it's real for the duration of the episode.
 
C

codhand

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
I see Romney as favorite to win the election right now, with the current state of the economy + the Obama out of context comments.
Sullivan agrees
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/07/romney-is-gaining.html
Click to expand...

"his resilience says one thing to me: he must now be the favorite."

What?

I love that what will cost him the election in your view, is the "total failure of the economy", and one out-of-context sentence, that no one in the general public really is aware even happened. Presidential elections tighten, I would hardly call Romney's performance "resilient", more like inept.
 
T

thekad

Banned
ClovingWestbrook said:
If you mean during this election, the no. If you mean since joining NeoGAF, then yes. Ask a few folks around here. I voted Bush in 2004, McCain in 2008, will be voting Obama 2012. Came to NeoGAF being against gay marriage, against a public option/universal health care, supporting the GOP. That isn't the case any longer and most of that metamorphosis took place during my time in PoliGAF.
Click to expand...

I barely remember that LovingSteam. Also, I can't believe I've been posting on GAF this long.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
ClovingWestbrook said:
If you mean during this election, the no. If you mean since joining NeoGAF, then yes. Ask a few folks around here. I voted Bush in 2004, McCain in 2008, will be voting Obama 2012. Came to NeoGAF being against gay marriage, against a public option/universal health care, supporting the GOP. That isn't the case any longer and most of that metamorphosis took place during my time in PoliGAF.
Click to expand...

I was the same, in some sense, except for voting for McCain and Bush.

I was a social conservative, Christian, just a little over five years ago. Then I started to use regularly a little thing called the "Internet".

Now I'm a liberal who spits in disgust at religion or any type of conservative viewpoint. Whether that's a "good" or "bad" thing, I'm not really sure, nor do I frankly care, unless, that view point is directly contradicted by real world facts and I adjust my views accordingly.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
empty vessel said:
Tax cuts are stimulus if directed towards consumers. I support a repeal of the payroll tax, and that would be stimulating, because tax cuts are a form of spending. However, other than repealing the payroll tax, I prefer increasing spending without tax cuts, because I think federal programs are useful. The less a government taxes, the less fiscal space it has to operate within before bumping up against inflation. (This is really why business interests seek to cut taxes--to constrict the government's ability to operate.)
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Right. And the payroll tax is quite regressive. If we could replace the payroll tax with a high-end tax increase, you could reduce the burden on low-to-middle class households while mitigating the decrease in revenue or, from your perspective, reducing inequality. Notwithstanding, the locus of any potential economic plan should concentrate on repairing our deteriorating infrastructure. Not only would it spur economic activity in the near term, it would bolster our future capacity. It's gradually becoming an albatross on the economy.
The Chosen One said:
Just wow...

Mittens didn't do anything as serious as say throwing manure on the British flag or something, but him stumbling over British protocol like a blind mouse has been extremely embarrassing and undercuts his foreign policy message against Obama.

Yes it's true voters two months from now won't remember the specific gaffes from this trip. But this trip will certainly help solidify the impression that Romney is a gaffe machine and is basically completely out of touch with almost everything when he's not in a corporate boardroom.

Romney was suppose to be the "adult" that was going to come and take over the country from the inexperienced and naive Obama. But with each passing week, Romney is looking less and less like the competent adult father-figure and more like an overgrown man-child that actually knows very little about what's going on in the world and who plays by a separate set of rules than everyone else (ie. by not releasing tax returns).

I think the Romney camp was hoping to make Romney the "Generic Republican" since they figured the generic republican would beat Obama this fall. But all this is doing is making Romney look artificial. Also the general campaign is exposing just how weak a candidate Romney is. He looked legit in the GOP Primary primarily because he was sharing the stage with literal joke characters. And he still needed a TON of negative ads via SuperPacs to take them down.

I definitely sense a campaign shake-up coming soon. It's also criminal that no-one in the campaign upgraded Romney-Bot with the latest foreign policy firmware with the London Olympic Patch v1.05. That patch among other things would have suppressed his BashEuro subroutine until he was back on US Red-state soil.
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Although the sentiment on the electoral consequences is correct, a point I've long iterated, Romney's performance isn't inconsequential. Understandably, this thread focuses heavily on the election. But the candidates' respective performances transcend the election. Political and governmental elites, bureaucrats, and foreign leaders are watching intently. And I imagine they're disconcerted at the prospect of a Romney Administration.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
If your willing to listen to alternate points of view and don't out right dismiss facts, then you'll change your mind sometimes. It's one of the great things about discussion forums like this.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ClovingWestbrook said:
lol what? Bush was one of the most despised Presidents at the time. Iraq had taken a huge turn with disapproval. It wasn't that Bush was such a great President, it was that like Romney, liberals weren't turning out in droves for Kerry. Do you even want Obama to win?
Click to expand...

Kerry lost due to a few thousand votes in Ohio. If the economy was this bad in 2004, he likely wins the state and thus the presidency. It wasn't about enthusiasm - even a highly motivated base would not have changed the electoral map at the time. Like Romney, Kerry's hopes were pinned on Ohio. I think people re-write history when they argue Kerry lost because he didn't enthuse the base. He lost due to a few thousand independent and moderate votes in Ohio
 
R

RDreamer

Member
TacticalFox88 said:
I was the same, in some sense, except for voting for McCain and Bush.

I was a social conservative, Christian, just a little over five years ago. Then I started to use regularly a little thing called the "Internet".

Now I'm a liberal who spits in disgust at religion or any type of conservative viewpoint. Whether that's a "good" or "bad" thing, I'm not really sure, nor do I frankly care, unless, that view point is directly contradicted by real world facts and I adjust my views accordingly.
Click to expand...

It's amazing what the internet can do to some. Some people blame college professors for turning people liberal, but I think the internet has a larger hand in that, lol. It helped me along, too. I still think the catalyst was someone in real life, though. A friend of mine I went to school with was insanely liberal and raised by liberal parents, etc. I went to a conservative college, and so everyone else had that viewpoint except him and maybe a handful of others. Whenever he expressed disagreement in what they said he'd just get dog piled by countless people, but in my mind he still emerged victorious. I'm sure in most of their minds they won some of those arguments, but not in mine.

That was part of my turn. After that, the internet took over. I would see so many discussions that mirrored that real life experience on places like here. People who talked like I used to believe would just get annihilated, and I just couldn't stay that way any longer. Once the interest took hold I had to keep going with it. I was raised by a hardcore conservative family, and my dad lives and breathes politics. So, part of the push was just to see if the things he had been believing all my life were really true.


PhoenixDark said:
Kerry lost due to a few thousand votes in Ohio. If the economy was this bad in 2004, he likely wins the state and thus the presidency. It wasn't about enthusiasm - even a highly motivated base would not have changed the electoral map at the time. Like Romney, Kerry's hopes were pinned on Ohio. I think people re-write history when they argue Kerry lost because he didn't enthuse the base. He lost due to a few thousand independent and moderate votes in Ohio
Click to expand...

Which he didn't get, likely because he was a crappy candidate that didn't get anyone enthusiastic. Look, outside circumstances do play a large role, and sometimes you can elect people that aren't charismatic or well loved, but for the most part I think you still need to elect someone. People have to believe at least a little bit in who they're voting for. If you don't inspire anything like that, then you've got an uphill battle.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Z

zou

Member
Kosmo said:
What people have a problem with in regards to Obama's spending is the increase in the DEFICIT, not year over year budget dollars. This is the graph they are referring to:

[ IMG ]http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/obama-deficit-2011.jpg[ /IMG ]

(*cue "Bush" tax cut talking points*)
Click to expand...

Late to the party, but I applaud your source for this impeccable chart. Subtle, misleading colors used to drive home the point, and yet you can either feign ignorance or try to argue semantics when called out. Brilliant. Initially I was a bit concerned with the source, thegatewaypundit.com. Nothing wrong with the numbers (though they are from the government, so who knows), but the domain name didn't inspire too much confidence. But then I checked the site, and it's all good.

Oregon Man Gets 30 Days in Jail for Collecting Rainwater
Like Clockwork… Business Owner Harassed by Goons After Appearing in anti-Obama Ad
It’s an Obama World… US May Dip Its Flag to British Leaders at Opening Ceremony
Romney Questions London’s Readiness for Olympics – Media Has a Conniption
Romney Pulls Ahead in Presidential Tracking Poll – Leads Obama By 4 Points (48-44)
Hilarious!… Obama’s Latest Ad: “I Like Small Business & Capitalism… Honest!” (Video)
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
RDreamer said:
It's amazing what the internet can do to some. Some people blame college professors for turning people liberal, but I think the internet has a larger hand in that, lol. It helped me along, too. I still think the catalyst was someone in real life, though. A friend of mine I went to school with was insanely liberal and raised by liberal parents, etc. I went to a conservative college, and so everyone else had that viewpoint except him and maybe a handful of others. Whenever he expressed disagreement in what they said he'd just get dog piled by countless people, but in my mind he still emerged victorious. I'm sure in most of their minds they won some of those arguments, but not in mine.

That was part of my turn. After that, the internet took over. I would see so many discussions that mirrored that real life experience on places like here. People who talked like I used to believe would just get annihilated, and I just couldn't stay that way any longer. Once the interest took hold I had to keep going with it. I was raised by a hardcore conservative family, and my dad lives and breathes politics. So, part of the push was just to see if the things he had been believing all my life were really true.


Which he didn't get, likely because he was a crappy candidate that didn't get anyone enthusiastic. Look, outside circumstances do play a large role, and sometimes you can elect people that aren't charismatic or well loved, but for the most part I think you still need to elect someone. People have to believe at least a little bit in who they're voting for. If you don't inspire anything like that, then you've got an uphill battle.
Click to expand...

I went from being liberal to in transition of being well I don't know. All I know is that my views are much more radical than most. I don't like defining myself. I could say that I am now a socialist (syndalism). Though of course I would never advocate it unless the world went to shit.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
RDreamer said:
Which he didn't get, likely because he was a crappy candidate that didn't get anyone enthusiastic. Look, outside circumstances do play a large role, and sometimes you can elect people that aren't charismatic or well loved, but for the most part I think you still need to elect someone. People have to believe at least a little bit in who they're voting for. If you don't inspire anything like that, then you've got an uphill battle.
Click to expand...

That's just not true. A great example is Kerry's testimony before Congress during the Vietnam War. A moving speech.

What did we want in 2004? To bring the troops home. How much more poignant can it get? There was no lack of enthusiasm for Kerry.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Empty Vessel in particular has changed a lot of my beliefs about government and such on here.
I mean, I was always staunchly socially liberal and fairly economically liberal as well but just reading some of the perspectives on how the economy and the government can be linked with regards to society and social change has been eye opening. The danger is that I really want to believe in these ideas because they're so appealing to me as an engineer.

Wolfgunblood Garopa said:
That's just not true. A great example is Kerry's testimony before Congress during the Vietnam War. A moving speech.

What did we want in 2004? To bring the troops home. How much more poignant can it get? There was no lack of enthusiasm for Kerry.
Click to expand...

There were, however, a significant portion of people who were convinced that Kerry was going to win and they voted Green to "teach him a lesson". "We like you, but not that much"
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
The_Technomancer said:
Empty Vessel in particular has changed a lot of my beliefs about government and such on here.
I mean, I was always staunchly socially liberal and fairly economically liberal as well but just reading some of the perspectives on how the economy and the government can be linked with regards to society and social change has been eye opening. The danger is that I really want to believe in these ideas because they're so appealing to me as an engineer.
Click to expand...

Similar to me. Empty Vessel is essentially who Karl Marx and Noam Chomsky should be. He should start his own blog or write online books or something.
 
J

Jackpot

Banned
Tim-E said:
While I don't agree with TA on the environment, he's not a "nutjob" on the issue.
Click to expand...

Chumly said:
Yea he can form coherent arguments. If you want to see nutjobs just look the global warming threads in the off topic and watch loofy post.
Click to expand...

Other posters seem to disagree.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=94344
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=391015
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=409978

Unless you think labelling everyone who believes climate change is being caused by mankind as "anti-progress, socialistic neo-hippies" is a coherent argument.
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
DeathbyVolcano said:
Yeah Sullivan is all kinds of wut
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I usually agree with Sullivan. His arguments seem sound--Romney's a total gaffe machine and is unlikeable, yet he's ticking up or at least the race is stable. Obama is being hurled by a huge disinformation campaign...and will only get worse with SuperPACs. So Sullivan is not totally off base here. If Romney's not being completely undone in poll numbers now, it will be even harder to do later post-convention.


But please convince me I am wrong :-(
 
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