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[TacticalFox88]

source? details? anything?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lorraine-devon-wilke/dems-do-disloyal-_b_1952964.html

 

[Cloudy]

Yuck. Why be friends with someone like that?

She's a good person but she's one of those people that have a black and white view of things with religion as the final arbiter. Her family is VERY religious.

 

[Magni]

Yup if Republican's would ditch the Southern Strategy, they could win a lot of the black vote cos it is super socially conservative.

I was talking to a friend yesterday who is voting for Obama but she is disappointed that he turned out to be a "fake" Christian (because of his support for gay marriage). I told her Obama is everyone's president and that includes homosexuals too but she wouldn't hear it. Unreal..

Thankfully not everyone is like that..

And as the election nears, some black pastors who initially rejected the idea of voting for Mr. Obama again have changed their minds. The Rev. Evelyn Paulette Toliver, the minister of a black Pentecostal church in Raleigh, is one of them.

“I’d love it if, as a Christian, Mr. Obama would do everything we want him to,” she said. “But I’ve realized, thinking about it deeply, that he’s not just the president of Christians. He’s got to be the president of everybody.”

From the very end of this article by the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/us/politics/black-support-for-obama-uncertain-in-2012.html?_r=0

 

[Link Man]

So, has anyone called out Romney yet on the fact that reducing the size of government means firing government employees, thus killing job growth in the public sector?

 

[Black Mamba]

This is what I mean when I say closer to the real number.

So, has anyone called out Romney yet on the fact that reducing the size of government means firing government employees, thus killing job growth in the public sector?

he's not. He's just shifting them onto military spending.

 

[Zen]

Yuck. Why be friends with someone like that?

Sometimes it takes a while to get to know people, and you don't always agree with your friends on everything (for instance I have a friend who is a former xenophobe, and I argued with him endlessly on the subject), but I guess there are lines for some people and not for others. I'd have a pretty big problem with being friends witha racist or homophobe.

 

[Souldriver]

Who had it at -2%?

Like I said, every poll I've seen put it at 7-11% with Ras having a 17% number in there, even.

It is not the same as unskewed polls. This is how statistics work. If the "truth" is 7%, you're going to get a lot of 5% and 9% numbers. So when I say 10% is probably closer to the truth, I'm saying based on ALL THE OTHER POLLING, I'm going to assume the PPP 5% number was probably on the low end due to NORMAL STATISTICS and throw in the debate bump and you're at 10%.

There is a big difference between unskewing and understanding what the numbers given actually mean.

I will repeat yet again. One out of every 20 GOOD polls will be an outlier. This is what math says.

Was the -5% an outlier? Can we compare two waves of polls? The ones before and after the debate? If there were indeed 20 "good" polls showing him at -10 all along, have those been updated since? Perhaps they're now at -15.

I'm lacking the numbers to check this (any links). I don't need a lecture in statistics. I just read your post as dismissing the idea of a drop by Obama because the second, lower number is "more realistic", while it might just as well be the case that the other polsters also see Obama dropping with 6 points (from wherever they had Obama before).

This is what I mean when I say closer to the real number.

So now that PPP has seen a decent Obama drop. Have we recent numbers from other polsters? Are they also still within the -10 margin, as they were before? Or might we just as well get a few polls in the near future from the other polsters that also see a 6 point drop... putting him near -15% on average?

 

[pigeon]

It's even lousier to just assume that the -5 was unrealistic to begin with and that it was probably more like -11 all along, just because you don't like the idea of a 6 point drop.

Don't forget I'm just taking the polls at face value and not twisting it into something positive. Obama was -5 last time, and -11 right now. It's a sizeable segment of poligaf that just seems to dismiss bad news as untrue (look at the internals!) or "well duuuh". It's getting on my nerves.

It's not an assumption -- the actual data suggests that the -5 wasn't particularly likely. It would have represented Obama gaining six points since the Republican primaries! And that wasn't exactly a great time for Romney. The point is that a) a six point drop is consistent with what we've seen, if we assume it's slightly overestimated, and b) the other data from Montana is also consistent with that drop being overestimated.

But none of that is even particularly relevant, because even if this is bad it isn't really news. What are we supposed to take away from this? Obama did poorly in the debates? We know! He isn't going to win Montana? Obviously not! Are we supposed to assume that Obama's losses in non-swing states correlate one-to-one with Obama's losses in swing states? That strikes me as a pretty doubtful proposition.

Was the -5% an outlier? Can we compare two waves of polls? The ones before and after the debate? If there were indeed 20 "good" polls showing him at -10 all along, have those been updated since? Perhaps they're now at -15.

I'm lacking the numbers to check this (any links). I don't need a lecture in statistics. I just read your post as dismissing the idea of a drop by Obama because the second, lower number is "more realistic", while it might just as well be the case that the other polsters also see Obama dropping with 6 points (from wherever they had Obama before).

There are no other pollsters, really. It's just PPP and Rasmussen, with maybe one other company doing one poll. That's kind of the problem -- but also kind of the point. Montana Presidential polls aren't probative or people would be doing more of them.

 

[coldfoot]

Yup if Republican's would ditch the Southern Strategy, they could win a lot of the black vote cos it is super socially conservative.

I was talking to a friend yesterday who is voting for Obama but she is disappointed that he turned out to be a "fake" Christian (because of his support for gay marriage). I told her Obama is everyone's president and that includes homosexuals too but she wouldn't hear it. Unreal..

People like that should not be eligible to vote.

 

[Cloudy]

Sometimes it takes a while to get to know people, and you don't always agree with your friends on everything (for instance I have a friend who is a former xenophobe, and I argued with him endlessly on the subject), but I guess there are lines for some people and not for others. I'd have a pretty big problem with being friends witha racist or homophobe.

Also, you can't help but have friends who think this way if any of your friends are religious. I just try to avoid abortion and gay marriage discussions with them because you can NEVER convince them due to their staunch religious views. At least my friend's not a single-issue voter!

 

[Black Mamba]

Was the -5% an outlier? Can we compare two waves of polls? The ones before and after the debate? If there were indeed 20 "good" polls showing him at -10 all along, have those been updated since? Perhaps they're now at -15.

I'm lacking the numbers to check this (any links). I don't need a lecture in statistics. I just read your post as dismissing the idea of a drop by Obama because the second, lower number is "more realistic", while it might just as well be the case that the other polsters also see Obama dropping with 6 points (from wherever they had Obama before).

I said "closer" to the number. That doesn't say there was no drop, just minimizing the amount of the drop.

And I didn't say it's an outlier. To be an outlier it must be more than 2 STD away. But -5% can be within the the 2 STD away but be still on the lower end of the margins. Based on the other polls, that's what I think it is.

I'll repost this:

This is before today's PPP poll. This is what I mean when I say closer to the real number. Average is +7, so PPP getting a +5 is not an outlier and happens, but was further from the real number.

Now with the debate bump, +10 sounds about right. He was probably closer to +8 before.

So now that PPP has seen a decent Obama drop. Have we recent numbers from other polsters? Are they also still within the -10 margin, as they were before? Or might we just as well get a few polls in the near future from the other polsters that also see a 6 point drop... putting him near -15% on average?

I know of no other recent Montana polling.

 

[Aaron Strife]

pretty sure this and bombarding telephone lines are the republican idea of a "ground game."

meanwhile the obummer campaign is busing people to registration and early voting locations.

lol idiots. Maybe if they paid their advisers hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonuses they'd be doing better.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Yup if Republican's would ditch the Southern Strategy, they could win a lot of the black vote cos it is super socially conservative.

I was talking to a friend yesterday who is voting for Obama but she is disappointed that he turned out to be a "fake" Christian (because of his support for gay marriage). I told her Obama is everyone's president and that includes homosexuals too but she wouldn't hear it. Unreal..

You know, I think that's one of the top social issues for African American voters. Or maybe it's just the one most talked about. It seems like a really big deal to them and one reason why most started disliking Obama's policies more.

 

[Magni]

You know, I think that's one of the top social issues for African American voters. Or maybe it's just the one most talked about. It seems like a really big deal to them and one reason why most started disliking Obama's policies more.

I wonder if it's less of an issue among Latino voters. Do we have a breakdown poll on the issue?

 

[Fragamemnon]

Well, got the mail tonight (after neglecting it for a while).

11 Republican Flyers
1 Democrat Flyer

Is bogging your constituents down with trash the new Republican strategy?

That's where a small chunk of the Super PAC money goes-into direct mail operations, which benefit longtime GOP consultants. Democrats would do the same thing too but Obama's always been about centralized command, control, and cash in his campaigns (so he can run them better and without this kind of patronage), and there isn't nearly as much Citizens United cash floating around.

I detest the amount of Super PAC money in this election, but at least currently there are large barriers to converting it to be nearly as efficient as the general campaign apparatus.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I wonder if it's less of an issue among Latino voters. Do we have a breakdown poll on the issue?

Probably a big deal to them too since most of them are Catholic. Not sure though; I think they're more focused on immigration reform.

 

[Cloudy]

You know, I think that's one of the top social issues for African American voters. Or maybe it's just the one most talked about. It seems like a really big deal to them and one reason why most started disliking Obama's policies more.

It's a big issue for religious AA voters (there's a distinction) but not big enough for them not to vote for Obama (or any other Dem).

Unlike many very-religious whites, religious blacks aren't usually single-issue voters. They will vote their economic self-interest before social issues and they see Republicans as a bigger threat than immoral Democrats.

That said, I'm convinced that if Republicans really reached out to conservative blacks on economic issues along with social, they would do well...

 

[PhoenixDark]

I know the Joe Walsh fuckery was posted already so I won't comment on his specific comment/photo, but watching it I'm rather impressed by Duckworth's answer in relation to Medicare:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Pick-Backfires-On-America-s-Biggest-Douchebag

Very clear, concise answer wrapped in some sarcasm. Politico had a story earlier about the Ryan plan not being the weapon dems thought it would be, and I think this goes back to poor messaging; republicans tend to be much better at simple messaging than democrats. Duckworth got to the heart of the issue rather effortlessly though: an old woman is not going to do better negotiating on her own with an insurance company, nor is she better off with a health care coupon as opposed to having Medicare.

 

[Cloudy]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Nevada: Obama 51, Romney 47 and Heller 47, Berkley 44. Full results coming up

.

 

[Souldriver]

I said "closer" to the number. That doesn't say there was no drop, just minimizing the amount of the drop.

And I didn't say it's an outlier. To be an outlier it must be more than 2 STD away. But -5% can be within the the 2 STD away but be still on the lower end of the margins. Based on the other polls, that's what I think it is.

I'll repost this:

This is before today's PPP poll. This is what I mean when I say closer to the real number. Average is +7, so PPP getting a +5 is not an outlier and happens, but was further from the real number.

Now with the debate bump, +10 sounds about right. He was probably closer to +8 before.




I know of no other recent Montana polling.

I've finally found the site/segment where you got that screenshot from.

If I read that correctly, there haven't been any polls taken in Montana since the debate, except for the PPP poll. Now, for all we know _IF_ we ever get to see new polls, the other trackers (which is basically only Rasmussen and M-D), might also show a 6 point drop.

That would make the average somewhere nearer to -15% for Obama than -10%. So it is just as much possible that the recent PPP poll is not just "getting closer to the mean", but showing the same -6 drop as the other polls, and end up being once again the most Obama-leaning poll.

And that's why I think saying the new PPP result is just getting closer to realistic/average results, is premature at best.

Get what I'm saying (honest question)?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

It's a big issue for religious AA voters (there's a distinction) but not big enough for them not to vote for Obama (or any other Dem).

Unlike many very-religious whites, religious blacks aren't usually single-issue voters. They will vote their economic self-interest before social issues and they see Republicans as a bigger threat than immoral Democrats.

That said, I'm convinced that if Republicans really reached out to conservative blacks on economic issues along with social, they would do well...

Republicans really dug themselves into a hole. Why double down on demographics that are constantly shrinking (elderly people; white people)?

 

[RustyNails]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Nevada: Obama 51, Romney 47 and Heller 47, Berkley 44.

For the nth time, Dat 47% ceiling

 

[Cheebo]

.

Pretty big drop for Obama's lead. He was up 9 in PPP's last poll.

 

[Black Mamba]

.

That's a 5 point drop from the last poll in NV. Nevada tightened. Wonder what days it was conducted.

For the nth time, Dat 47% ceiling

Again, one takeaway is Obama only lost one percentage point. 52 to now 51. It's all Romney gains from undecided, probably republican leaners.

 

[Cloudy]

Republicans really dug themselves into a hole. Why double down on demographics that are constantly shrinking (elderly people; white people)?

Because it worked for a long time and wedge issues are good politics when your ideas suck for the average voter

 

[Cloudy]

That's a 5 point drop from the last poll in NV. Nevada tightened. Wonder what days it was conducted.

Again, one takeaway is Obama only lost one percentage point. 52 to now 51. It's all Romney gains from undecided, probably republican leaners.

Average drop of 5.5 pts from September for Obama on our MT/NV polls, which were in the field Monday-Wednesday this week

.

 

[Cheebo]

It was conducted Mon-Wen. So that idea that things reverted back to normal on the weekend can be put the rest, Romney has had a pretty sustained 4-5% bump in the swing states so far.

 

[Black Mamba]

.

Thanks.

Romney's debate more and more looks like he shored up Repub voters thinking about staying home but not really switching over Obama supporters. That's a positive for Obama.

But goes to show you how Obama could have ended the election then and there.

It was conducted Mon-Wen. So that idea that things reverted back to normal after the weekend can be put the rest, Romney has had a pretty sustained 4-5% bump in the swing states so far.

Not exactly. PPP was super bullish on Montana compared to everyone else, so you cannot say the new polling was mostly a bump.

The Nevada polling in Sept was all over the place. from +1 to +11 and a lot in between. You can't just look at two polls, even from the same company, and alone use that for anything.



edit: According to PPP, Obama gained 6 in NV from the convention. That's a bit high, too, considering the rest of the country was mostly +3 and other swing states less than 5 and Nevada is also in bad shape.

 

[Officerrob]

Pretty big drop for Obama's lead. He was up 9 in PPP's last poll.

Obama only lost 1% though, and is still over 50%

 

[RustyNails]

Again, one takeaway is Obama only lost one percentage point. 52 to now 51. It's all Romney gains from undecided, probably republican leaners.

Yep. Any state where Obama has crossed 50%, I'm not worried. It's unwinnable for Romney.

 

[Black Republican]

Nbc/Wsj poll tommorow for FL,OH & VA. Predictions?

Ohio 50-44 - Obama
Florida - 48-47 - Romney
Virginia - 48-46 - Obama

 

[Stinkles]

Thanks.

Romney's debate more and more looks like he shored up Repub voters thinking about staying home but not really switching over Obama supporters. That's a positive for Obama.

But goes to show you how Obama could have ended the election then and there.

Media would have made it a horserace anyway. They even managed it nebulously with McCain - remember the terror here?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Yep. Any state where Obama has crossed 50%, I'm not worried. It's unwinnable for Romney.

I agree with this. One thing I'm curious about (not like it'll affect this election) is- isn't it possible for a candidate to win a state without winning the popular vote in that state? I know how EC votes count towards the nation, but I don't quite understand how states declare who wins. It's not just total popular vote right?

 

[Officerrob]

Nbc/Wsj poll tommorow for FL,OH & VA. Predictions?

Ohio 50-44 - Obama
Florida - 48-47 - Romney
Virginia - 48-46 - Obama

Ohio 48-45 Obama
Florida 47-46 Romney
Virginia 47-47

 

[PhoenixDark]

Nbc/Wsj poll tommorow for FL,OH & VA. Predictions?

Ohio 50-44 - Obama
Florida - 48-47 - Romney
Virginia - 48-46 - Obama

Ohio 49-47 Obama
Florida 48-48
Virginia 48-46 Obama

 

[Cloudy]

Fox News poll: Romney leads Obama 46%-45%. Same poll had Obama over Romney 48%-43% before the debat

The Fox News poll is based on live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones from October 7 to October 9 among 1,109 randomly-chosen likely voters nationwide.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-nationally-after-first-debate/#ixzz28w6LjyqV

Panic!

 

[Link Man]

I'm starting to think that the current thread title is a bit prophetic.

 

[jbug617]

Panic!

will Fox News take it seriously? They said not to trust polls that time.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Nbc/Wsj poll tommorow for FL,OH & VA. Predictions?

Ohio 50-44 - Obama
Florida - 48-47 - Romney
Virginia - 48-46 - Obama

I think it's more fun to guess the unskewed version.

Ohio - 48-46 - Romney
Florida - 50-47 - Romney
Virginia - 49-45 - Romney

 

[Cheebo]

Ohio: 48 O - 47 R
Florida: 47 R - 46 O
Virginia: Tied at 48

 

[Souldriver]

So I take it Black Mamba agrees with me that his Montana poll analysis is premature, and might be wrong since the polling average might drop just as much in net points as the PPP poll shows.

 

[Black Mamba]

So I take it Black Mamba agrees with me that his Montana poll analysis is premature, and might be wrong since the polling average might drop just as much in net points as the PPP poll shows.

What? No. How did you come to that conclusion? I stand by what I said. PPP's poll there was too bullish to begin with and their poll auto-corrected itself.

 

[Plinko]

I find it hilarious when people freak out about national polls.

Swing-state polls? That I can see. But national polls? No. Almost meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

 

[RDreamer]

Mitt's now going back to his original stance of not hiring teachers

Earlier in the year:

"[President Obama] wants to hire more government workers," Romney said. "He says we need more fireman, more policeman, more teachers. Did he not get the message of Wisconsin? The American people did. It's time for us to cut back on government and help the American people."

In last week's debate:

"I reject the idea that I don't believe in great teachers or more teachers."

Yesterday:

"He wants to hire more school teachers. We all like school teachers. It's a wonderful thing. Typically, school teachers are hired by states and localities, not by the federal government. But hiring school teachers is not going to raise the growth of the U.S. economy over the next three-to-four years."

 

[Cheebo]

"Independents in the Fox poll swung from 44%-39% for Obama, to 42%-32% for Romney from the same poll before the debate."

Big reason for the shift to Romney.

 

[Cloudy]

I find it hilarious when people freak out about national polls.

Swing-state polls? That I can see. But national polls? No. Almost meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not freaking out. I think that Fox poll is good for Obama considering what a bad week he had (Not from the debate itself but the media and supporter meltdown/criticism). It was also Sunday to Tuesday

 

[eBay Huckster]

Nbc/Wsj poll tommorow for FL,OH & VA. Predictions?

Ohio 50-44 - Obama
Florida - 48-47 - Romney
Virginia - 48-46 - Obama

optimistic prediction!

Ohio 51-46 O
Florida 47-46 O
Virginia 48-45 O

 

[TacticalFox88]

Mitt's now going back to his original stance of not hiring teachers

Earlier in the year:



In last week's debate:



Yesterday:

How the fuck can people be so blind to blatant lying and pandering?

 

[RustyNails]

OH: 49% - 46% O
FL: 48% - 47% O
VA: 48% - 46% O

 

[Souldriver]

What? No. How did you come to that conclusion? I stand by what I said. PPP's poll there was too bullish to begin with and their poll auto-corrected itself.

Because you ignore me, probably the moment you realized the point I was making is valid.

Pre debate:
PPP: -5
Rasmussen: -15
Average: -10


Post debate:
PPP: -10
Rasmussen: ?
Average: ?


You say that PPP just adjusted itself to the polling average. But you use the polling average pre-debate. And we all know the every poll has tightened since the debate.

Therefore, I point out that given the overal trend, it's more realistic that a new potential Rasmussen poll will also show a decent drop for Obama, therefore changing the polling average, and making your whole analysis incorrect.

If you are honest, you'll have to admit that it's probably more likely that all polls will show and Obama drop, instead of PPP adjusting itself to the mean while the other polls somehow remain constant.