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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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RustyNails
Member
Yeah pretty sure dude has balls. He just left them at home during the debates I guess.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Had that mission failed I can almost guarantee he would've been a one term President, despite his accomplishments.
I'm trying to count the number of ethical violations, illegal actions, and hypcritical decisions outlined in that first paragraph.
RustyNails
Member
Romney is such a final boss from an RPG.
I think in Canada wait times vary dramatically depending on the type of service you need due to varying levels of capacity to perform different services. Even in the US it can take a long time to get some services unless you are rich.
The peace of mind of knowing that no matter what random health problem hits you, you will eventually get care and not be bankrupted is a huge load off the mind.
The peace of mind of knowing that no matter what random health problem hits you, you will eventually get care and not be bankrupted is a huge load off the mind.
Souldriver
Member
I'm not sure how that works either. In another state (Virginia?) though the numbers were reversed. Romney got a much bigger part of the early votes than Obama.
Edit: and posting for the new page:
I'm telling it now. Poligaf and many others are vastly overestimating Obama's "come back performance" in the next debates. He's never been a great debater, and can just hold his own in appearance. He won't trounce Mittens.
Because of this, the narrative afterwards will once again be negative (or mixed) for Obama.
Also, if he's not trained enough for multiple scenario's, he might fall once again for a trap set by Romney's team. Perhaps we'll see a more agressive Obama, and Mittens will counter by being suuuuper sweet, personable and warm hearted, once again taking the upper hand appearance wise in the debate. Obama better be ready for all possible Mittens incarnations.
Because of this, the narrative afterwards will once again be negative (or mixed) for Obama.
Also, if he's not trained enough for multiple scenario's, he might fall once again for a trap set by Romney's team. Perhaps we'll see a more agressive Obama, and Mittens will counter by being suuuuper sweet, personable and warm hearted, once again taking the upper hand appearance wise in the debate. Obama better be ready for all possible Mittens incarnations.
PPP Montana
Obama 42
Mitt Romney 52
Obama 42
Mitt Romney 52
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-gains-in-montana-tester-up-2.html
I mean, all I'm saying is we don't know the lady and thus have no reason to doubt her. And if she's telling the truth, then I feel uncomfortable calling her "sleazy" at the very least. Because I tell you, if my fiancee told me something as a last wish, even if I disagreed with it... I might just go as far out of my way as possible to make it happen. And I'm an atheist so I know she wouldn't even know I fulfilled her wish!
A lot of your post is just assumptions about how people think, when they're rational like you or I. But you know, some people aren't rational at all. When I was at the hospital yesterday getting an abscess popped (developed after my horrific near fatal car crash on Thursday), the nurse saw me watching CNN and he went on about 'communist news network' and how Obama changed the first amendment so you can't criticize the president anymore and that's why you never see the news criticize him. When I mentioned I don't believe that's true and that I've been watching the news media critcize Obama all week for Libya, he said "yeah, but they can't really criticize him." What does that even mean? It's inherently irrational bullshit from people.
Sometimes a persons last wish is political. Even if I disagree with that political point of view, I feel death wishes are really personal things and people often have to go through the process of fulfilling those wishes just to absolve themselves of guilt they might feel or of obligations they might think will make their dead loved one think fondly on them once completed. It's a funny thing, death, ya know? Basically, i just don't think she's sleazy if she's telling the truth
So this guy is going to get criminal charges and go to jail after resigning in disgrace right? Or will his money and position grant him protection?
I've been thinking about the composition of the Democratic base. You have African Americans and increasingly Hispanics, who were largely religious and socially conservative. Then you have the women's movement and the gay rights movement. Throw some unions and young people on top of that and I think we have the major bases covered.
Not all of these groups seem like natural allies, but the one thing that kept them united (and which continues to draw them closer together) is the fact that they're all hated by the right. The successful Democratic Presidents of our time have been the ones that can excite and unify all factions of the party with common purpose.
Obama has done that, I think, to a greater degree than even Clinton did. The Democratic Party loves this President, and that strong core support is perhaps the biggest advantage he has.
Not all of these groups seem like natural allies, but the one thing that kept them united (and which continues to draw them closer together) is the fact that they're all hated by the right. The successful Democratic Presidents of our time have been the ones that can excite and unify all factions of the party with common purpose.
Obama has done that, I think, to a greater degree than even Clinton did. The Democratic Party loves this President, and that strong core support is perhaps the biggest advantage he has.
Black Mamba
Member
Montana was never really in play for Obama, though. He was -5 before with PPP which, which was probably too good to begin with.
-10 sounds about right.
So Mitt Romney is some kind of mystical shape-shifter?
Where's the drudge siren? Not cause of anything Obama said, but because he went on a black radio host's program.
Buzz Bissinger is voting for Romney? Really?
hydragonwarrior
Member
Still though, the House was lost to Republicans in 2010. Democrats need a way to make people remain actively involved in politics irregardless of whether or not it's an Election year. This is something Republicans do insanely well with their base.
Souldriver
Member
What does that even mean?
It sure feels like poligaf is just as much playing the "polls are skewed" game as the other side, if said polls aren't to our likings. Either we stay hopelessly optimistic, we doubt the poll internals, or we rationalize the bad news as an obviousness. The past few days have been a sad display.
Obama lost in 2008 by only 2% in Montana. He was in the latest PPP poll 5% behind on Romney, and now 11%. Tell me again which score was "not good to begin with"?
distantmantra
Member
What he did was horrible and pretty damn hypocritical, but what's criminal about it?
Officerrob
Banned
Yikes, when you refer to someone as a "fucking douchejuice retard", it might be time to step away from twitter
Black Mamba
Member
Montana is a red state, he's not really campaigning there. 2008 was different. Obama won 2008 by a large national popular vote marging which benefited him in Montana. In a close election, montana is going to swing back the other way.
What I meant by that was PPP finding him down 5 was probably a bit small. That's not saying polls are skewed. Remember, if they find him down 5 with a MoE of 4, he could just as well have been down 7 or 8, but randomness of polling will turn out results like down 5.
And FWIW, PPP is the only pollster I know of to have Obama not down 7+.
There is a massive difference between skewing a poll and saying the poll probably is 1 standard deviation (or a bit more) from the mean and looking at other polls to see that. I will repeat, 1 out of every 20 GOOD polls are outliers because the math dictates it. Although, -5 wasn't even an outlier...
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I've been getting polled on my cell phone quite frequently. I always hang up though.
Officerrob
Banned
Who cares if he lost Montana by 2% in 2008? He won Indiana in 08 and he's not winning it this year, and he was never winning Montana.
What I think he's trying to say is that PPP 5% was easily the closest poll and this poll is more inline with polling from other pollsters. Most sites have had Montana as either a lock for Romney or likely Romney long before today for a reason and it has nothing to do with "unskewing" polls
Its means Montana is a red state. If Obama were to ever turn it the entire country might as well be Blue.
Plus the GOP hates Obama more now then in 2008, you think after the Healthcare law and other things he has done in 4 years its still going to be 1-2%??
TacticalFox88
Banned
Considering, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if, years on down the road, that Mitt was diagnosed with Multiple-Personality disorder.
Romney is debating himself again for the nth time.
vs.
wat
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/10/romney-ill-be-a-pro-life-president/?wprss=rss_politics
vs.
wat
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/10/romney-ill-be-a-pro-life-president/?wprss=rss_politics
speculawyer
Member
Wait . . . WHAT?
There is so much wrong in there it is hard to count:
-(presumably) Cheating on his wife
-Pressuring a woman to get an abortion
-Taping a phone conversation
-Hypocritically having his partner get an abortion
-Having an affair with one of his patients
He can't really dismiss this as just his personal private life since some of those are legal/ethical problems and hypocritical in view of his professed political views.
Not this issue in particular, but this is part of what I want Obama to do... memorize (or at least be able to paraphrase) several key quotes on policy Mitt Romney has made in the past month, and then PIN HIM to them and demand he either lie that he never made them or disavow them. Illustrate that he changes his position and DARE the media not to confirm Obama was right by calling out Romney.
RustyNails
Member
Yep. It's worthless talking about numbers because the media always calls them wrong even if it's 100% correct, because some arbitrary caveat wasn't pointed out. Pin quotes on Romney and let media do it's job.
From my discussions with a lot of African Americans, they'd prefer to vote Republican on social issues except for the whole Obama thing plus the right-wing/tea party encouraging racism/vote suppression.
Frank the Great
Banned
pretty sure this and bombarding telephone lines are the republican idea of a "ground game."
meanwhile the obummer campaign is busing people to registration and early voting locations.
Souldriver
Member
That Montana is a red state, is besides the point.
Saying that the PPP number of -11% is more realistic than the -5%, is not some *obvious certainty*, as Obama has gotten as close to -2% in that state.
If Obama was 5% behind Romney before, it might be because in September everything was going right for Obama, and Romney was digging his own grave. Now, imagine if Obama had not reversed this trend with a horrible debate, we might as well again have seen an end result where Obama loses Montana with a 2 to 5% margin again. Instead he took a nosedive in the polls to -11% (for now).
I'm not claiming Montana would ever turn blue. I'm just pointing out the obvious that a -5% for Obama was not unrealistic. That he dropped to 11% is bad news, regardless of electoral consequences.
Just claiming "well, the 11% was more realistic than 5% anyway", is grabbing less negative explanations out of thin air. It reeks of cognitive dissonance and unskewedpolls ™.
Saying that the PPP number of -11% is more realistic than the -5%, is not some *obvious certainty*, as Obama has gotten as close to -2% in that state.
If Obama was 5% behind Romney before, it might be because in September everything was going right for Obama, and Romney was digging his own grave. Now, imagine if Obama had not reversed this trend with a horrible debate, we might as well again have seen an end result where Obama loses Montana with a 2 to 5% margin again. Instead he took a nosedive in the polls to -11% (for now).
I'm not claiming Montana would ever turn blue. I'm just pointing out the obvious that a -5% for Obama was not unrealistic. That he dropped to 11% is bad news, regardless of electoral consequences.
Just claiming "well, the 11% was more realistic than 5% anyway", is grabbing less negative explanations out of thin air. It reeks of cognitive dissonance and unskewedpolls ™.
I'm not a big fan of her putting all three videos next to each other like that. The last two seem extremely similar in wording and makes the videos seem more scripted rather than honest. Powerful videos though.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Just because they're scripted doesn't mean they're not honest. You can see the first ladies eyes reading what is to be said. Doesn't mean what she's saying isn't true. The third lady gives the best delivery...she's really really upset with Akin.
If I remember right, she just released some internals showing her up by like 9 points or so.
R as in racism? What?
Also , I just put 2 and 2 together. Romney's been using the "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can't Lose" as his campaign phrase the last week. Maybe huge attention, royalties etc. for Bissinger if Romney is Prez? (FNL is his favorite show)
TacticalFox88
Banned
So many truth bombs. Goddamn.
Oh no, I think they're perfectly honest and it's a shame what those women went through. It's just that they SEEM more dishonest when they're read from a script and that might create a weaker connection among viewers.
This is a lousy analysis, because that was four years ago and fundamentals change in that time. Frankly, there aren't very many polls in Montana, because it's well-acknowledged that it won't be a swing state, but there have only been three polls all year that showed Romney leading by less than five. Obama would have had to gain about twice as much as he did in September to even get back to that -2% figure. So it's perfectly reasonable to expect Obama to be down 10 in Montana -- it lines up fine with all the information we have so far.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Yeah, it's only 30 seconds. They could have memorized their remarks. I think it's obvious that the first lady is reading her remarks. Sadly, that's probably the best ad of the three and the one I'd run the most but all 3 are great.
Black Republican
Member
not that any of these states will turn blue, but is north dakota considered slightly less conservative than south dakota?
The Lamonster
Member
source? details? anything?
Souldriver
Member
It's even lousier to just assume that the -5 was unrealistic to begin with and that it was probably more like -11 all along, just because you don't like the idea of a 6 point drop.
Don't forget I'm just taking the polls at face value and not twisting it into something positive. Obama was -5 last time, and -11 right now. It's a sizeable segment of poligaf that just seems to dismiss bad news as untrue (look at the internals!) or "well duuuh". It's getting on my nerves.
Yup if Republican's would ditch the Southern Strategy, they could win a lot of the black vote cos it is super socially conservative.
I was talking to a friend yesterday who is voting for Obama but she is disappointed that he turned out to be a "fake" Christian (because of his support for gay marriage). I told her Obama is everyone's president and that includes homosexuals too but she wouldn't hear it. Unreal..
Mercury Fred
Banned
Yuck. Why be friends with someone like that?
Black Mamba
Member
Who had it at -2%?
Like I said, every poll I've seen put it at 7-11% with Ras having a 17% number in there, even.
It is not the same as unskewed polls. This is how statistics work. If the "truth" is 7%, you're going to get a lot of 5% and 9% numbers. So when I say 10% is probably closer to the truth, I'm saying based on ALL THE OTHER POLLING, I'm going to assume the PPP 5% number was probably on the low end due to NORMAL STATISTICS and throw in the debate bump and you're at 10%.
There is a big difference between unskewing and understanding what the numbers given actually mean.
I will repeat yet again. One out of every 20 GOOD polls will be an outlier. This is what math says.
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